The End of the Big Megaphone

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The end of the Big Megaphone

Mark LinderChime Group PLC

Bell-Pottinger Sans Frontières

16 September 2010DiViA/ Aalto University

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This is not the talk you, or I, expected it was going to beNot “marketing”.... More about conflict, politic, sociology and psychologyWith whom, where and how you choose to engage

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Sources of inspiration in Finland...

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Best country?

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If you asked this question, ‘where you would you look to see the future of education’, the answer we’ve traditionally given to that is... you go to Finland. Finland is the best place to see school systems.

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Who are these two? (more on them later)

Or most transparent?

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Thank you for your responses to the survey about digital channels

Which list is which?

• Web advertising• Facebook• SEM, SEO• Twitter• Behavioral targeting

• Web advertising• Facebook• SEO• Twitter• Piracy

Which list is which?

Most useful to my company• Web advertising• Facebook• SEM, SEO• Twitter• Behavioral targeting

Least useful to my company• Web advertising• Facebook• SEO• Twitter• Piracy

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My take:You are experienced but anxious to learn more

and

Not as sophisticated as I(we) need to be

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Not much difference between large and small entities

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What this said to me....

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Awareness of change

A desire for knowledge and also structure

“How do we engage, not just ‘what digital channels do we use?’”

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We are in a communications environment which swarms with skepticism and conflict

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No more majoritiesThe authority is an “amateur”Little speedboats can hurt big navies

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Markets used to be

“Positional” (Brand A has more X than Brand B)

Occasionally in “Crisis” (Disaster X hits Brand A)

An increasing number of markets are now in continual “conflict mode”

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Everything is contested – immediately

Often, as a message is being communicated, the conflict starts

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You’ve heard of “rapid rebuttal”

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You’ve heard of “instant rebuttal”

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Ladies and gentlemen, we are in the age of “pre-buttal”

Pre-butt anticipated challenges before you’ve made the announcement that will trigger challenge

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“Never underestimate the importance of fast.”

-- Eric Schmidt*

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Marketing as we knew it came out of WWII

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Where does “campaign” come from, anyway?

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Agricultural connotation

Had to get back to take in the harvest

“Campaign” has a beginning and an end

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we had the answer...

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We had the purchase funnel…

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… and the megaphone

AdvertisingBrand

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bombs away....“fire and forget”

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What we call hard power

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“Hard power”

Searching for ultimate victory

Targeting and winning over a group

Firing stuff at them

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Hard power(about selling stuff...less effective now)

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Hard power Social Marketing“Social power”

(our brand is yours, you take the brand and share it, etc.)

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The “how”, but not the “why”

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Hard power Social power

What are we trying to do? Does it actually sell stuff?

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Hard power Soft power(still about selling stuff)

A way of thinking about engagement

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Soft power rests on the ability to shape the preferences of others

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Simply put, in behavioural terms, soft power is attractive power

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Bell-Pottinger Sans FrontièresSpecial Projects

“the SAS of strategic communications”

Geo-political reputation re-buildsConflict zone influence operationsPublic advocacy*

*when public opinion is really confused, the media is not helping, and the major actors cannot speak out(eg biofuels, GMO, privacy, alcohol, etc.)

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“Stratcomms”

• Conflict transformation• Stabilization• Influence operations• Psychological warfare• Democratic institution building• Blunting violent extremist recruiting

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Lessons from Public Diplomacy 2.0

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“The United States need not be Miss Congeniality to win the war of ideas. We just need to make moderates hate extremists more than they dislike us.”

-- James Glassman

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Three useful things from Public Diplomacy 2.0

An attitude : The Big Megaphone is dead

A process : Sense and respondn2i2* etc.

A technique : Coalitions, not campaigns

* Networks, narratives, identities, interests

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The Big Megaphone is dead

Brand US--“Let me tell you a thing or two”

“We want you to have democracy”

“You mean “stop fighting us, or we’ll kill you!!”

“Maybe we should kill you first…”

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Brand US (Brand Us) thinking says that “we are only interested in you in as much as we want something from you” -- (we want you to) like us, buy our ideas, buy our product, etc - and ultimately do what we want you to do.

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This is not about you. It’s not even about you and them. It’s pretty much just about them.

-- Dana Eyre, Chief of Sociology

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Do you really understand “them”?

What is their desired end-state?

Forget about yours.

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“You don’t have to be a clinical psychologist to think like one.”

--David Kenning, Chief of Psychological Operations

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In psychological warfare, an accurate diagnosis of the enemy’s mindset is critical – in particular, the composition of his self-image and the real drivers of his will to fight

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"DO YOU WANT TO DENY YOURSELF THE RIGHT TO BE A MAN?" a psy-ops leaflet, dropped by American forces in Vietnam

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Question: when is the last time you brought a clinical psychologist into your team?

“The blend”SociologistPsychologistDeliberative researcher (more on that later)

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Marketers love net promoters

But who is “the other”? Who are your opponents, the obstructionists? Who is anti-brand? Do you know them as well?

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Obstructionists have asymmetric advantage

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Who is your asymmetric challenger?

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It’s massively cool to be against something

Think about the recruiting power of skepticism

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Can you recognize this logo?

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What about now?

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Al-Qaeda, the ultimate anti-brandFor some, the coolest youth brand on the planet

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The real psychological power of the anti-brand lies in its ability to offer its recruits something quite rare, namely a flip

a transformation from the frustration and stagnation of obsessive constraint and inhibition into unfettered hysterical recklessness

It opens up the world of the forbidden and formerly unimaginable

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It addresses the desire for transformational rather than mere incremental personal change

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It provides intensity of purpose and meaning

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It nullifies the past

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It compresses the future

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It permits the forbidden to be viewed through the prism of virtue

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It sells a heroic narrative – fighting for the underdog

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It appeals to narcissistic fantasies

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It invites attention and fame

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It offers a way to hit out at authority – symbolic or otherwise

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It promises unparalleled power and an impact on the world stage

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or ?

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Apple has anti-brand dna

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vs

Asymmetric warfare...

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“In asymmetric warfare, the little guy hits you where you are weakest. You have to hit back where he is strongest.”

-- David Kenning

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Question: Do you understand your Deeply Skeptical Audiences (DSAs)• Distributors who have defined themselves as against you• Customers who have had a deeply troubling experience• Analysts, civil societies (like NGOs) who have defined you as a

target

• Where do they show up? Where in real life....where on the internet?

• What recruiting power do they have?

• You may decide to isolate them• You may decide to engage with them• You must know them and have a plan

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The obstructionists, the DSAs, need to be part of your engagement plan

...and you can (should) use up front media

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Jouko Karvinen, CEO, Stora EnsoSini Harkki, Greenpeace

CEO and “obstructionist” asking antagonistic questions, on the main page of Stora Enso’s site

Really good engagement. Note: this IS social marketing!

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And how do you “plan”?

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Desert Storm:The “360-degree” plan

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*COA= Course of Action

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Unfortunately for military (or marketing) planners, the world is not a linear place

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Take a look at...

Systemic Operations Design

SOD

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There is no single path to victory

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SOD sees operations as learning—that is, military actions themselves become an experiential means of learning about the target system

Rather than being a set-piece plan, the operation evolves as the joint force adapts to the target system...

...and the target system as it adapts to the force

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One of the key principles of SOD is that as you interact with the system, it changes (and indeed so do you)

This requires a different way of thinking about “campaigning”

Out goes the military concept of “fire and forget” and “command and control” and in comes concepts like “do, learn, do” and “sense and respond”.

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Planning

Sensing

Acting

Situation

Sensing and responding, not “fire and forget”

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Strategy-making is always, not just front-end

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Most marketing today is planned nine months in advance

By the time we show up, the battle has moved on

What is a “microsite” anyway, but a fixed base?

Be wary of fixed web destinations

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Do/ Learn/ Do

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Firstly, understand the system methodically and rigorously, and understand its complexity. This is why the expertise of sociologists is necessary. Second is the inclusion on the system map of entities that are actively, and quite possibly violently, opposed to you (some have called this “extreme segmentation” i.e. to put the extreme views on the map) and, in the same spirit, also to analyse entities who are deeply sceptical about you, your motivations and messages.

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Stan McChrystal’s system map

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Think ecosystem, not targetn2i2

Identify the networks that matter and how they inter-relate

Identify the narratives that exist in those networks

Identify the interests of the members of the network (i.e. their more rational, economic and territorial motivations)

Identify their identities (i.e the more emotional aspect that makes them a group who share a particular narrative --This may be tribal, religious or some other form of identity)

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Ecosystem thinking,courtesy of Yellowstone park

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All research is part of your engagement

Use deliberative methods

Build your message and engagement with the audience, and the obstructionists

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Question:

• Are you in “command and control” mode, “fire and “forget”?• There is no single path to victory

• Is there conversational discourse in your planning process

– Business– Sociologist– Psychologist– Planners

• What is your digital engagement process?

Where is our “moderate middle”

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Coalitions, not campaigns

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A campaign can start a war....but can it end it?

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"Nations can blunder into war. They cannot blunder into peace.“

-- Herbert Hoover

It’s politics - build your coalition, fracture the other guys, undercut support

1. Build a coalition for peace supported by the dominant presence in the population of feelings, narratives, behavioral intents, and political dialogue favorable to peace and stability.

2. Undercut obstructionists by undercutting in the population the feelings, narratives, behavioral intents and political dialogue that enable their efforts.

Relative Power of Coalitions

Time

Po

wer

Undercut Obstructionists

Build Coalition for Peace

Two mutually-supporting objectives

Shift individuals & factions from obstruction to coalition for peace

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Think politics -- Target swing voters

ModerateMiddle

Hard Core& Supporters

PossibleParticipants

PossibleParticipants

Political Leadership Network

Political Leadership Network

Hard Core& Supporters

Degree of Polarization

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Check-sheet for you

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Three useful things from Public Diplomacy 2.0

An attitude : The Big Megaphone is dead

A process : Sense and respondn2i2* etc.

A technique : Coalitions, not campaigns

* Networks, narratives, identities, interests

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Advice for agencies

• New blend – not digital and production, but sociologist and psychologist

• Don’t fire the suits – turn them into coalition-builders• Improve clock speed

– What you did annually, do monthly– What you did monthly, do weekly

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It’s politics and conflict.

Build your coalition, fracture the other guys, undercut support

Let the psychologists and sociologists in to help create your engagement strategy

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Thank you.

Mark Lindermlinder@bell-pottinger.co.uk

www.bellpottinger-sansfrontieres.com+447747007927

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Credits

• Dana Eyre, David Kenning, Paul Bell, Mark Turnbull• Jon Leach• Maj Ketti C. Davison (Systemic Operational Design

(SOD):Gaining and Maintaining the Cognitive Initiative)

• John F. Schmitt (A Systemic Concept for Operational Design)