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1
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( 1)
. (www.M-property.co.th)
()
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53 7.8% 2 ( ) ( )
()
http://www.m-property.co.th/
2
20
4-5
3
180
2533-2536 () 2540 2545 2547
() 2540 2540 2541-2542
3
2533-2538 ( )
&
( 2)
. (www.M-property.co.th)
20 () 2529-2530 2532-2533 2536-2538 ( 8-9% ) ( 2534-3535 )
2528
( 2528 =1) 33 2539 2532-2539
http://www.m-property.co.th/
4
2530 200 1.52 2 10 ( 3.19 2540 ( 2550 4.18 ) 10 33 (3,300%) 2528 1,000 33,000
1 2528-2553 (1985-2010)
: AREA (www.area.co.th)
50-100% 2558
2539 ( 5.9%)
2540-2541 ( -1.4%,-10.5%) ( 90% 10%) 2542-2544 ( 4.4%, 4.8%, 2.2%) 2545 ( 5.3%) 2546-2547 ( 5.3%, 7.1%, 6.3%)
Land Price Changes in the BMR 1985Land Price Changes in the BMR 1985--20102010
Urbanization
48-53
40
Land Price Changes in the BMR 1985Land Price Changes in the BMR 1985--20102010
Urbanization
48-53
40
Urbanization
48-53
40
5
( 2536-2538 200,000 300,000 2540-2541 20,000-30,000 50,000-70,000
2548-2550 ( 4.5%,5.0%,4.8%)
2551-2552 ( 2.6%,-2.8%) 65,000 59,000 10% 2553
2529-2530, 2540-2541 2551-2552
10-12 1 () 5-7 2-3 10-12 () ( ) ( )
&
( 3)
. (www.M-property.co.th) 2
2539 (1996) 2540 2542-2543 () 26.3 ( 20%) 40.2 2553 53% ( 4.8%) 2540 ( 1 5 50,000-70,000 300,000 ) NPA 2-3 ()
http://www.m-property.co.th/
6
12 ( 2541
) 117% ( 9.75%) 12 188-233% ( 16-19% ) 56% 50% 49% 54% ( 4.5%) 2548 2542 2547 2 2548
( ) ( )
2540 () (Fake demand) 13-14% 300,000 200,000 100,000 200,000 (100,000 100,000 ) 2540 90% ( 10%) 2-30,000
2551-2552
7
( NPL ) 2551-2552 2553
, , , , , (- -), ()
2534 2535
&
( 4)
. (www.M-property.co.th) 3
2552 2553 7.8% 4-5% 2554 ( 2555)
1.
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8
()
2. ( )
3. 2555 () 6.87 5-10% 200,000-300,000 2-3
4. 2558 ( ) ( )
5.
6. () ( )
7. () 7 8 14 1-2 100,000 200,000 ( )
8.
9
9.
() ( 2533 ) 2548-2553
1:
: AREA (www.area.co.th)
() ( )
0
50,000
100,000
150,000
200,000
250,000
300,000
-10.0
-5.0
0.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
20.0
25.0
30.0
Housing Register Launch (AREA) GDP MLR
Housing Register 136,104 146,735 148,557 121,213 44,338 13,532 15,101 14,341 19,489 37,487 48,441 45,164 49,662 49,769 59,048 69,938 33,994
Launch (AREA) 283,892 190,315 131,815 44,353 3,421 4,149 8,748 14,322 39,833 52,305 68,052 63,579 66,118 81,364 67,791 57,604 43,783
214,275 211,458 99,839 36,957 24,473 19,693 34,244 21,644 38,114 75,718 57,102 53,623 51,564 65,039 65,653 59,085 42,448
116,104 97,382 120,941 156,927 135,875 120,331 94,835 87,513 80,232 56,819 67,769 77,725 92,349 108,674 110,812 109,331 110,666
GDP 5.2 4.6 5.9 5.4 5.6 5.8 4.6 5.5 9.5 13.3 12.2 11.2 8.6 8.1 8.3 9.0 9.2 5.9 -1.4 -10.5 4.4 4.8 2.2 5.3 7.1 6.3 4.5 5.0 4.8 2.6 -2.2 3.5
9.9 19.7 12.7 5.1 3.7 0.8 2.4 1.9 2.4 3.9 5.3 5.9 5.7 4.1 3.4 5.0 5.7 5.9 5.6 8.0 0.3 1.6 1.6 0.7 1.8 2.7 4.5 4.7 2.3 5.5 -0.9 3.6
MLR 14.50 16.50 17.00 16.00 15.50 16.50 15.50 12.00 11.50 12.00 12.50 16.25 14.00 11.50 10.50 11.75 13.75 13.00 15.25 11.75 8.36 7.88 7.25 6.75 5.63 5.63 6.63 7.75 6.99 6.88 6.05 6.05
2522 2523 2524 2525 2526 2527 2528 2529 2530 2531 2532 2533 2534 2535 2536 2537 2538 2539 2540 2541 2542 2543 2544 2545 2546 2547 2548 2549 2550 2551 2552 Q2/2553
MLR
GDP
Launch AREA
Housing
Register
Macro economic vs Property cycle 40-41 46-47 52GDP -10.5% GDP +5-7% GDP -7.1%(Q1/52)
5-8% 2-3% -1.1% 13-15% 2-4% 5-6% 160,000 + 4-500,000 5-60,000 100,000 +Over supply 4-50,000
2-30,000 5-70,000 50,000 ++
0
50,000
100,000
150,000
200,000
250,000
300,000
-10.0
-5.0
0.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
20.0
25.0
30.0
Housing Register Launch (AREA) GDP MLR
Housing Register 136,104 146,735 148,557 121,213 44,338 13,532 15,101 14,341 19,489 37,487 48,441 45,164 49,662 49,769 59,048 69,938 33,994
Launch (AREA) 283,892 190,315 131,815 44,353 3,421 4,149 8,748 14,322 39,833 52,305 68,052 63,579 66,118 81,364 67,791 57,604 43,783
214,275 211,458 99,839 36,957 24,473 19,693 34,244 21,644 38,114 75,718 57,102 53,623 51,564 65,039 65,653 59,085 42,448
116,104 97,382 120,941 156,927 135,875 120,331 94,835 87,513 80,232 56,819 67,769 77,725 92,349 108,674 110,812 109,331 110,666
GDP 5.2 4.6 5.9 5.4 5.6 5.8 4.6 5.5 9.5 13.3 12.2 11.2 8.6 8.1 8.3 9.0 9.2 5.9 -1.4 -10.5 4.4 4.8 2.2 5.3 7.1 6.3 4.5 5.0 4.8 2.6 -2.2 3.5
9.9 19.7 12.7 5.1 3.7 0.8 2.4 1.9 2.4 3.9 5.3 5.9 5.7 4.1 3.4 5.0 5.7 5.9 5.6 8.0 0.3 1.6 1.6 0.7 1.8 2.7 4.5 4.7 2.3 5.5 -0.9 3.6
MLR 14.50 16.50 17.00 16.00 15.50 16.50 15.50 12.00 11.50 12.00 12.50 16.25 14.00 11.50 10.50 11.75 13.75 13.00 15.25 11.75 8.36 7.88 7.25 6.75 5.63 5.63 6.63 7.75 6.99 6.88 6.05 6.05
2522 2523 2524 2525 2526 2527 2528 2529 2530 2531 2532 2533 2534 2535 2536 2537 2538 2539 2540 2541 2542 2543 2544 2545 2546 2547 2548 2549 2550 2551 2552 Q2/2553
MLR
GDP
Launch AREA
Housing
Register
Macro economic vs Property cycle 40-41 46-47 52GDP -10.5% GDP +5-7% GDP -7.1%(Q1/52)
5-8% 2-3% -1.1% 13-15% 2-4% 5-6% 160,000 + 4-500,000 5-60,000 100,000 +Over supply 4-50,000
2-30,000 5-70,000 50,000 ++
10
&
( 5)
. (www.M-property.co.th) 4 2548
3 12-15 23-26 2548 ( ) 2-3 ( )
1:
http://www.m-property.co.th/
11
48%44%
61%
60%54%
27%16%
20%13%14%17%19%11%
53%
31%32%
20%
27%
16%
26%27%
31%31%
48%57%
29%18%33%
23%
40%
42%
50%
21%
21%18%
14%18%
36%31%
28%
10%
32%
26%
20%
11%
13%
11%
11%
8%5%
6%
22%
24%
44%
37%
36%
12%
16%15%
0
25,000
50,000
75,000
100,000
125,000
150,000
175,000
200,000
225,000
32,998 33,043 12,233 13,161 9,105 8,600 6,770 962 1,681 16,985 3,601 438 232 3,131 5,127 6,002
22,967 27,432 11,263 7,326 6,256 1,935 3,321 6,989 10,760 23,397 20,427 9,613 7,060 11,702 13,858 11,468
88,956 84,402 23,256 12,242 4,500 5,726 19,400 10,901 18,123 23,188 17,783 14,669 13,277 10,626 17,834 10,668
69,354 66,581 53,087 4,228 4,612 3,432 4,753 2,792 7,550 12,148 15,291 28,903 30,995 39,580 28,834 25,870
2537 2538 2539 2540 2541 2542 2543 2544 2545 2546 2547 2548 2549 2550 2551 2552
211,458
99,839
36,957
24,47319,693
34,244
21,644
38,114
75,718
57,10253,623
51,564
65,039 65,653
27,004
214,275
54,008
: AREA (www.area.co.th)
2 ( ) ( ) () ()
2540
12
() ( 90%) 100% () () ( ) ( ) () (Capital Gain)
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