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(11) 1-362006 7
Raymond Kurzweil
hdguo_tw@mail2000.com.tw
,
1 1947 1956 Unimation Inc. 1959 UNIMATE 1962 1962 AMF
VERSTRAN 1970 1973 1980 MIT 1984 Unimation Inc. 1988 HelpMate
1 http://consumer.chinatimes.com/EVENT/2006robot/robot-3-5-1.htm
2 (11)
1990 1992 1993 MIT 1996 HONDA P2 1997 RoboCup 1997 NASA 1997 1999 SONY AIBO 2000 HONDA ASIMO 2001 Robot Challenge 2003 HRP-2 2003 SONY QRIO(SDR-4XII) 2003 iRobot Roomba 20
2003 2004 Wakemaru
robotrobota1920 Karl Capek21920Rossums Universal Robots R.U.R.3Robot
, 20 2 http://www.xminfo.net.cn:8080/xmkp/kpzs/hyyhjkyzs3_1_18.htm 3
Raymond Kurzweil 3
,
4
()
5 1962
30 4 1990 1
234
5 http://www.student.gov.cn/robot/robot%20world/wl/csz.htm
4 (11)
60 70 6
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6 ,
Raymond Kurzweil 5
2)
3)
4)
1966 Unimation AMF 1967
Hall Automation RAMP70
Lighthall
70
.
6 (11)
70
1984
1985
50 50 1968 1971 1970 1975
1975 30 120 20
Raymond Kurzweil 7
60 11
1967 Unimation 1968
40% 13
80
60 70 80 1980
8 (11)
7
1) 2) 3) 4)
1) PID 2) 3) 4) 5) 6) 7) 8)
1) PID 2) 3) 4) 5) 6) 7) 8)
7 http://famousky.com/default.asp?cateID=48
Raymond Kurzweil 9
1) DSP 2) 3) 4) 5) 6) 7) 8) 9) 10) 11)
1) 2) Agent 3) 4) 5) 6) 7)
1) 2) 3) 4)
1) 2) 3) 4) 5)
1)
10 (11)
2) 3) 4) 5)
1) 2) 3)
1) 2)
Isaac Asimov8
8 http://zh.wikipedia.org/wiki/%E8%89%BE%E8%90%A8%E5%85%8B%C2%B7%
E9%98%BF%E8%A5%BF%E8%8E%AB%E5%A4%AB Isaac Asimov1920 1 2 1992 4 6
1941 Runaround
Raymond Kurzweil 11
9
150
10
9 http://database.cpst.net.cn/popul/views/artic/60401093813.html 10 http://www.cpus.gov.cn/kjsh/jqrsh/jqrwg.htm
12 (11)
,
1
11
28
11
http://www.mnd.gov.tw/publication/subject.aspx?TopicID=476
Raymond Kurzweil 13
12 1
21
2 13
21
Ian NeildIan Person2005 BT Technology Timeline14
12 http://tech.163.com/06/0324/11/2CVOKT6A00091S79.html 13 1950 Alan TuringTuring Test
inquisitorterminal
1991 Hugh Loebner Turing Test Loebner Turing Test Turing Test
14 http://www.btinternet.com/~ian.pearson/ http://iarthome.com/read/htm/tid-3034.html
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2020 2040
20082012 20082012 20082012 20082012
20082012 20112015 20112015 20132017
20162020 20162020 20162020 20162020 2020 2020 2020 2230 2030 2040 2040 2050
20082012
Raymond Kurzweil 15
20082012 20082012 20112015 20112015 20112015 20112015 20132017 90% 20122017 20132017 2020 2020 2020 2020 2020 2030 2030
2040
2040 20082012 20082012 20082011 20112015 20112015 RFID 20132017
20062020 20162020 20162020 2030 95%
16 (11)
20082012 60% 20082012 20082012 20112015 20132017 20132017 20162020 2020
2030
20062010 20082012 20082012 20082012 1500 20082012 50% 20082012 20112015 20112015 20112015 20132017 20132017 2020 50% 2030 2030 2030 2040 50% 2040
Raymond Kurzweil 17
20082012 20082012 20082012 20082012 20082012 20082012 20082012 20112015 20112015 20112015
20112015 20112015 2020 2020
2020 2020 2020 2030 2030
20112015 20112015 20112015 20132017 20162020 2020 2020 2030 2040
18 (11)
20082012 20082012 20082012 20112015 20112015 20132017 20132017 20162020 2020 2020 2020 2030 2030
2040
20112015 20162020 20162020 2020 2020 2030 2030 2040 2040 2040 15
15 http://consumer.chinatimes.com/EVENT/2006robot/robot-3-1-1.htm
Raymond Kurzweil 19
16 1 (Actuator)
2 (Animatronic)
3 (Android)
(humanoid) 4 (Cybernetics) (Norbert
Wiener) 5 (Cyborg)
6 (Mechatronics)
7 (Pick-and-Place robot)
8 (Robot) ()
9 (Sensor)
10(Servo)
16 http://consumer.chinatimes.com/EVENT/2006robot/robot-3-2-1.htm
20 (11)
1http://robotics.bu.edu/17 2http://www.gjwtech.com/ 3http://www.roboticfan.com/index.asp 4http://www.kepu.com.cn/gb/technology/robot/ 5http://robotics.caltech.edu/ 6http://mi.eng.cam.ac.uk/milab.html 7http://hrl.harvard.edu/18 8http://www.playrobot.com/linkweb.htm 9http://www.liurenping.com/keyan/index.html 19 10http://ai.stanford.edu/20 11http://www.frc.ri.cmu.edu/~hpm/ Hans Moravec21
(Raymond Kurzweil)
17 (Communicating mobile robotics)
(Contact sensing)(Structural dynamics)(Control of Fluids)(Friction modeling)(Networked Control Systems)(Tactile display)(Control of Mechanical Systems)
18 Analog Computation Choreography of Dynamical SystemsControl of Quantum SystemsPattern GenerationRobotic ManipulationSystem Identification
19 ROBOCUPROBOCUP SUNNY618
20 (bio-informatics)
(cognition) (computational geometry) (computer vision)(decision theory)(distributed systems)(game theory)(image processing, information retrieval)(knowledge systems)(logic)(machine learning)(multi-agent systems)(natural language)(neural networks)(planning)(probabilistic inference)(sensor networks)
21 http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hans_Moravec
Raymond Kurzweil 21
http://www.kurzweiltech.com/raycv.html ( Kurzweil )
1948 2 12 Kurzweil Technologies, Inc.
PMB 193 733 Turnpike Street North Andover, MA 01845 E-mail: raymond@kurzweiltech.com Web: www.KurzweilTech.com & www.KurzweilAI.net 1970 MIT B.S., Computer Science and
Literature, Massachusetts Institute of Technology
Honorary Degrees 1982--2005 12
2003 Ray & Terrys Longevity Products Inc.
(nutraceutical) 2001 www.KurzweilAI.net
2000 Kurzweil Kurzweil Cyber Art Technologies,
Inc., KCATAARON()Ray Kurzweil's (Cybernetic Poet)
1999 FAT KAT, Inc.The KurzweilAI.net
22 (11)
1997 Medical Learning Company, Inc., MLC
1996 Kurzweil Kurzweil Educational Systems, Inc., KESIKurzweil 3000 Kurzweil 1000
1995 Kurzweil Kurzweil Technologies, Inc., KTI
1982 Kurzweil (Kurzweil Applied Intelligence, Inc., KAI)
1982 Kurzweil Kurzweil Music Systems, Inc 1990 Young Chang Akki Co., Ltd. Young Chang Akki Co., Ltd.Kurzweil Mark 5, 10, 150, Micro Piano Kurzweil K2000, K2500, PC88
1974 Kurzweil Kurzweil Computer Products, Inc. 1980 Xerox Corporation Xerox Imaging SystemsTextBridge ()
2001 host / hostessAvatar
2001 Ramona 1997 Print-to-Speech Reading System
Kurzweil 3000 1997 (Kurzweil Voice
Commands) 1994 Windows Kurzweil Voice for
Windows 1987 Kurzweil Voice
Report
Raymond Kurzweil 23
1985 (Kurzweil VoiceMED) 1984
Kurzweil 250 1976 Omni-Font Xerox
TextBridge 1976 Kurzweil Reading Machine
1975 CCD Flatbed Scanner 1975 1967 SELECT
Harcourt Brace Jovanovich 1964
1964 (Four-Way Analysis of Variance)
2005 The Singularity is
Near, When Humans Transcend Biology 2004 Fantastic Voyage: Live Long
Enough to Live Forever Terry Grossman 2002 (Are We
Spiritual Machines, Ray Kurzweil vs the Critics of Strong A.I.) 1999 The Age of Spiritual Machines, When Computers
Exceed Human Intelligence 1994 The 10% Solution for a
Healthy Life 1990 The Age of Intelligent Machines 1991-1993 ( The Futurecast)Library
Journal KurzweilAI.net 500
24 (11)
U.S. 6,754,823 Technique for distributing software U.S. 6,747,672 Virtual patient hot spots U.S. 6,692,258 Patient simulator U.S. 6,647,395 Poet personalities U.S. 6,587,583
Compression / decompression algorithm for image documents having text, graphical and color content
U.S. 6,320,982 U.S. 6,246,791 U.S. 6,199,042 U.S. 6,173,264 Reading system
displaying scanned images with dual highlighting U.S. 6,125,347 System for
controlling multiple user application programs by spoken input
U.S. 6,052,663 Reading system which
reads aloud from an image representation of a document
U.S. 6,033,224 Reading machine system for the blind having a dictionary
U.S. 6,014,464 U.S. 5,875,428
Kurzweil Raymond Kurzweil (OCR)-
transhumantechnological singularityfuturology
Raymond Kurzweil 25
Kurzweil Queens
BBS I've Cot a Secret1986 1970 MIT
Kurzweil --
Kurzweil 2002 United States Patent and Trademark OfficeNational Inventors Hall of Fame Lemelson-MIT Prize 50 1999 National Medal of Technology12 3
Kurzweil Kurzweil 1990 Young Chang
Kurzweil alter ego 25 Romona22S1m0ne 22 Romona LifeFX 3D eGain
eGain LifeFX
1950 LifeFX
26 (11)
2005 Bill Gates Ray Kurzweil Kurzweil National Federation of the Blind2005 Kurzweil sighted
2001 'The Law of Accelerating Returns' Ray Kurzweil Moore's lawTechnological Singularity23Kurzweil 1000 109 1042 Kurzweil 1016
CEOLucie Salhany eGain LifeFX
http://taiwan.cnet.com/enterprise/technology/0,2000062852,20002709,00.htm 23 SingularityKurzweil
infinityevent horizon
34 42 http://udndata.com/sc/story_c1.html
Kurzweil Moore's lawResponse to The Singularity Is Always Near. http://www.kurzweilai.net/meme/frame.html? main=memelist.html?m=1%23664
Raymond Kurzweil 27
Kurzweil
Kurzweil
21 return
IT 24
Kurzweil
24 http://taiwan.cnet.com/news/special/0,2000064597,20097084,00.htm
28 (11)
Kurzweil nanobots 250 8 10 10 25
Kurzweil 26 20
20 80
20
DNA
2004 12 Kurzweil Singularity Institute for Artificial Intelligence 25 http://www.wired.com/news/medtech/0,1286,66585,00.html?tw=wn_tophead_3 26 http://www.forbeschina.com/index.asp?INCName=
MDArticleContent&TopicTypeID= 46&Article ID=1259
Raymond Kurzweil 29
Kurzweil
Kurzweil 2012
2020
Kurzweil 1999 8 3 Business Week27
123 2019 1000 2030 1000 1000 2050 Kurzweil wetware 10 1
ATR Garis
Sussesc Inman Harvey
Kurzweil 2025
2030
27 http://mychannel.pchome.com.tw/channel/class/show_preview.php3
/?d=2001-05-28& enname=asian888&t=.htm&fn=main&view=1
30 (11)
Kurzweil 2099
(download)(backup)28
Kurzweil Google
Kurzweil Terry Grossman 2004 10
21 2025
28 http://www.phy.ncu.edu.tw/dcc/History/r1BrainComputer.htm
Raymond Kurzweil 31
2030 250
Kurzweil 29
Ray Kurzweil 250
Kurzweil
Kurzweil
Terry Grossman Kurzweil 56
Kurzweil
DNA A G C T
Kurzweil Kurzweil Kurzweil 29 http://www.bioon.com/biology/news/200412/86669.html
32 (11)
Kurzweil 21 20
15 20
Kurzweil Kurzweil 35
Kurzweil
40
10% 30%Kurzweil
40
Kurzweil
Stevie Wonder
Raymond Kurzweil 33
Raj Reddy Ray Kurzweil
452 900 2,000 Grossman
Kurzweil
A C E
?
Joseph Zibrak Kurzweil Grossman Kurzweil
Kurzweil Grossman
S. Jay Olshansky
Olshansky Johns Hopkins E Olshansky
34 (11)
Ray Terry Kurzweil Kurzweil Grossman
Ray & Terry 's Total Daily Care Kurzweil 50 6 1.25
Kurzweil 250
Kurzweil
CCD 1999
Michael Shermer30
1980
120
30 http://www.sciam.com.tw/circus/circusshow.asp?FDocNo=724&CL=23
2005 8
Raymond Kurzweil 35
Kurzweil
Kurzweil 21 31(Genetics revolution) RNA (RNA interference)
2020 Nanotechnology revolution 10 Kurzweil 1 2
DNA
Kurzweil (Robotics revolution)
31 http://www.epochtimes.com.hk/5/10/21/10554.htm
36 (11)
Kurzweil
Kurzweil 2040 10
Kurzweil
www.kurzweiltech.com/
Kurzweil http://www.kurzweilai.net/meme/frame.html?m=10
Kurzweil http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ray_Kurzweil
http://www.kurzweilcyberart.com/
Kurzweil AARON
http://www.kurzweilai.net/ 500
http://www.books.com.tw/exep/prod/booksfile.php?item=0010110691 Kurzweil
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