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A Closer Look at Trends in A Closer Look at Trends in Europe & BeyondEurope & Beyond
Tanguy van de WerveDirector General, Leaseurope
Bucharest, 18 October 2007
2
A Closer Look at Trends in A Closer Look at Trends in Europe & BeyondEurope & Beyond
AgendaAgenda World markets in 2006World markets in 2006 Leasing volumes and growth, in Europe Leasing volumes and growth, in Europe
and further a fieldand further a field Leasing’s contribution to the economyLeasing’s contribution to the economy Market playersMarket players Asset typesAsset types
3
World Markets in 2006World Markets in 2006
US
ELFA
175.2 bio€
Europe
Leaseurope
297.5 bio€
of which:
Equipment Leasing
250.7 bio€
Japan
JLA
53.5 bio€
Australia
AELA 17.2 bio€
New leasing volumes; source: Leaseurope 2006 Annual Survey and local leasing associations
Brazil
ABEL
7.2 bio€
Canada
CFLA
18.5 bio€
4
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006
Bill
ions
of €
85.5 bio€
New Leasing Volumes in EuropeNew Leasing Volumes in EuropeTotal New Leasing Volumes Reported
in Leaseurope Annual Surveys
HP explicitly included from 2003, automotive long term rental members figures included (when available) in 2006
CAGR: 10.9%
297.5 bio€
5
New Leasing Volumes in EuropeNew Leasing Volumes in EuropeEquipment & Real Estate
0
50,000
100,000
150,000
200,000
250,000
300,000
1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006
Bill
ions
of €
Equipment Real Estate
CAGR: 10.63%
CAGR: 11.01%
RE 46.8 bio€
Equip 250.7 bio€New Volumes
2006
6
New Leasing Volumes in EuropeNew Leasing Volumes in EuropeEquipment & Real Estate
0
50,000
100,000
150,000
200,000
250,000
300,000
1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006
Bill
ions
of €
Equipment Real Estate
Average Share of RE
83.84%
Average Share of Equip
83.84%
86.7%
80.3%High:
97
Low: 02
7
New Leasing Volumes in EuropeNew Leasing Volumes in Europe
UK UK 55.0 bio€ 55.0 bio€
New Leasing Volumes per Cluster in 2006
8
New Leasing Volumes in EuropeNew Leasing Volumes in Europe
UK UK 55.0 bio€ 55.0 bio€
Germany Germany 50.4bio€ 50.4bio€
New Leasing Volumes per Cluster in 2006
9
New Leasing Volumes in EuropeNew Leasing Volumes in Europe
UK UK 55.0 bio€ 55.0 bio€
Germany Germany 50.4bio€ 50.4bio€
Italy Italy 48.1 bio€ 48.1 bio€
New Leasing Volumes per Cluster in 2006
10
New Leasing Volumes in EuropeNew Leasing Volumes in Europe
UK UK 55.0 bio€ 55.0 bio€
Germany Germany 50.4bio€ 50.4bio€
Italy Italy 48.1 bio€ 48.1 bio€
France France 36.1 bio€ 36.1 bio€
New Leasing Volumes per Cluster in 2006
11
New Leasing Volumes in EuropeNew Leasing Volumes in Europe
UK UK 55.0 bio€ 55.0 bio€
Germany Germany 50.4bio€ 50.4bio€
Italy Italy 48.1 bio€ 48.1 bio€
France France 36.1 bio€ 36.1 bio€
CEE CEE 33.4 bio€ 33.4 bio€
New Leasing Volumes per Cluster in 2006
12
New Leasing Volumes in EuropeNew Leasing Volumes in Europe
UK UK 55.0 bio€ 55.0 bio€
Germany Germany 50.4bio€ 50.4bio€
Italy Italy 48.1 bio€ 48.1 bio€
France France 36.1 bio€ 36.1 bio€
CEE CEE 33.4 bio€ 33.4 bio€
Benelux, CH, AT Benelux, CH, AT 28.8 bio€ 28.8 bio€
New Leasing Volumes per Cluster in 2006
13
New Leasing Volumes in EuropeNew Leasing Volumes in Europe
UK UK 55.0 bio€ 55.0 bio€
Germany Germany 50.4bio€ 50.4bio€
Italy Italy 48.1 bio€ 48.1 bio€
France France 36.1 bio€ 36.1 bio€
CEE CEE 33.4 bio€ 33.4 bio€
Benelux, CH, AT Benelux, CH, AT 28.8 bio€ 28.8 bio€
Med Med 28.8 bio€ 28.8 bio€
New Leasing Volumes per Cluster in 2006
14
New Leasing Volumes in EuropeNew Leasing Volumes in Europe
UK UK 55.0 bio€ 55.0 bio€
Germany Germany 50.4bio€ 50.4bio€
Italy Italy 48.1 bio€ 48.1 bio€
France France 36.1 bio€ 36.1 bio€
CEE CEE 33.4 bio€ 33.4 bio€
Benelux, CH, AT Benelux, CH, AT 28.8 bio€ 28.8 bio€
Med Med 28.8 bio€ 28.8 bio€
Nordic Nordic 18.1 bio€ 18.1 bio€
New Leasing Volumes per Cluster in 2006
15
Growth in EuropeGrowth in Europe
Total New Volumes: Annual Growth Rates
Calculated based on a homogenous sample of members reporting in the previous year
10.66%
12.84%
11.69%
15.24%
16.50%
7.92%
11.62%
2.71%
8.35%
7.23%
13.47%
6.89%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
14%
16%
18%
1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006
2006:Lower RE growth
16
2,58%
-2,50%
4,33%
8,94%
13,61%
3,57%
38,62%
6,87%
-5% 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 40% 45%
Germany
UK
France
Italy
Mediterranean
Benelux, AT & CH
CEE
Nordic
2004/2005 2005/2006
Growth in EuropeGrowth in EuropeNew Leasing Volume Growth per Cluster
Annual growth rates calculated based on a homogenous sample of members reporting in the previous year
17
Growth in EuropeGrowth in Europe
Total Equipment Leasing Growth
Annual growth rates calculated based on a homogenous sample of members reporting in the previous year
15.29%
2.49%
7.20%
-10%
-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006
Equipment
18
Growth in EuropeGrowth in Europe
Equipment vs Real Estate Leasing Growth
Annual growth rates calculated based on a homogenous sample of members reporting in the previous year
30.04%
-8.73%
5.61%
-10%
-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006
Equipment Real Estate
19
15.64%
-12.55%
8.37%
-15%
-10%
-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006
Europe US
Growth in EuropeGrowth in Europe
Equipment Leasing Growth in Europe Compared to the US
Annual real growth rates, US data source: ELFA
20
-10.02%
9.94%
-15%
-10%
-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006
Europe US Japan
Growth in EuropeGrowth in Europe
Equipment Leasing Growth in Europe Compared to the US and Japan
Annual real growth rates, Japan data source: World Leasing Yearbook 2007 & JLA
21
-7.39%
27.65%
3.61%
-15%
-10%
-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006
Europe US Japan Australia
Growth in EuropeGrowth in Europe
Equipment Leasing Growth in Europe Compared to the US, Japan & Australia
Annual real growth rates, Australian data source: AELA, includes all types of equipment finance
22
Contribution to the Contribution to the European EconomyEuropean Economy
0,00%
0,50%
1,00%
1,50%
2,00%
2,50%
3,00%
1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006
Leasing Volumes as a % of GDP
Leaseurope average, calculated as new leasing volumes from Leaseurope Annual Surveys divided by GDP from Eurostat for countries with available data
23
Contribution to the Contribution to the European EconomyEuropean Economy
-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
-5% 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35%
New leasing growth 05/06
Inve
stm
ent g
row
th 0
5/06
DK
UKSE
DE FR AT
BE FI NL
ITCH
CZ
ES
SI
PT
SK
EE
Leasing Growth Compared to Investment Growth
Investment = GFCF – investment in private dwellings; source: Eurostat
24
Contribution to the Contribution to the European EconomyEuropean Economy
Leasing Growth Compared to Investment Growth
Investment = GFCF – investment in private dwellings; source: Eurostat
-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
-5% 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 40% 45% 50% 55% 60% 65% 70%
New leasing growth 05/06
Inve
stm
ent g
row
th 0
5/06
PL
25
R2 = 0.3015
-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
-5% 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35%
New leasing growth 05/06
Inve
stm
ent g
row
th 0
5/06
Contribution to the Contribution to the European EconomyEuropean Economy
DK
UKSE
DE FR AT
BE FI NL
ITCH
CZ
ES
SI
PT
SK
EE
Leasing Growth Compared to Investment Growth
Investment = GFCF – investment in private dwellings; source: Eurostat
26
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
AT BE CH CZ DE DK EE ES FI FR HU IT NL NO PL PT SE SI SK UK
GFCF New Leasing Vol
Contribution to the Contribution to the European EconomyEuropean Economy
CAGR (97-06) for Leasing Compared to Investment
Investment = GFCF – investment in private dwellings; source: Eurostat
Overall CAGR: 8.94%
Overall CAGR: 4.82% <
27
European Leasing PenetrationEuropean Leasing Penetration
11.89% 12.50% 13.02%14.83% 15.08%
17.25%19.02%
4%
9%
14%
19%
24%
29%
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006
Total PR
Average Leasing Penetration
Source: Leaseurope data & investment figures from Eurostat; Incl. hp from 2003 & new LT members in 2006
28
11.89% 12.50% 13.02%14.83% 15.08%
17.25%19.02%
16.06%17.67% 17.35%
20.23%21.64%
24.30%
28.43%
4%
9%
14%
19%
24%
29%
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006
Total PR Equip
European Leasing PenetrationEuropean Leasing PenetrationAverage Leasing Penetration
Source: Leaseurope data & investment figures from Eurostat; Incl. hp from 2003 & new LT members in 2006
29
11.89% 12.50% 13.02%14.83% 15.08%
17.25%19.02%
16.06%17.67% 17.35%
20.23%21.64%
24.30%
28.43%
4.75% 4.87% 5.62% 5.51% 4.97%6.32% 6.14%
4%
9%
14%
19%
24%
29%
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006
Total PR Equip RE
European Leasing PenetrationEuropean Leasing PenetrationAverage Leasing Penetration
Source: Leaseurope data & investment figures from Eurostat; Incl. hp from 2003 & new LT members in 2006
30
European Leasing PenetrationEuropean Leasing Penetration
10% – 15%10% – 15%
Country Level Penetration Rates(2006)
31
Leasing PenetrationLeasing Penetration
10% – 15%10% – 15%
15% – 20%15% – 20%
Country Level Penetration Rates(2006)
32
Leasing PenetrationLeasing Penetration
10% – 15%10% – 15%
15% – 20%15% – 20%
20% – 25%20% – 25%
Country Level Penetration Rates(2006)
33
Leasing PenetrationLeasing Penetration
10% – 15%10% – 15%
15% – 20%15% – 20%
20% – 25%20% – 25%
> 25%> 25%
Country Level Penetration Rates(2006)
34
Leasing PenetrationLeasing Penetration
16.06%17.67% 17.35%
20.23%21.64%
24.30%
28.43%31.00% 31.00%
33.10%
28.90% 27.60% 27.70%
27.70%
4%
9%
14%
19%
24%
29%
34%
39%
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006
Europe US
Average Leasing Penetration in Europe vs US
Source: ELFA
35
16.06%17.67% 17.35%
20.23%
24.30%
28.43%
24.90% 25.90%21.64%
22.90%
4%
9%
14%
19%
24%
29%
34%
39%
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006
Europe US Canada
Leasing PenetrationLeasing Penetration
Source: CFLA
Average Leasing Penetration in Europe vs Canada
36
16.06%17.67% 17.35%
20.23%
24.30%
28.43%
38.98% 38.35%
41.82%
36.41%33.91%
37.43%39.32%
21.64%
4%
9%
14%
19%
24%
29%
34%
39%
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006
Europe US Canada Australia
Leasing PenetrationLeasing PenetrationAverage Leasing Penetration in Europe vs Australia
Source: AELA
37
European Market PlayersEuropean Market Players
Based on homogenous sample of members reporting in all surveys, measured in terms of number of firms
Short Term Evolution in Leasing Company Profile
32%
18%
28%
4%
33%
18%
27%
4%
31%
14%
32%
4%
30%
18%
29%
5%
30%
16%
34%
4%
29%
16%
37%
5%
29%
16%
37%
5%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
2006200520042003200220012000
Indep Captive Bank Owned Bank
38
32%
18%
28%
4%
33%
18%
27%
4%
31%
14%
32%
4%
30%
18%
29%
5%
30%
16%
34%
4%
29%
16%
37%
5%
29%
16%
37%
5%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
2006200520042003200220012000
Indep Captive Bank Owned Bank
European Market PlayersEuropean Market Players
Based on homogenous sample of members reporting in all surveys, measured in terms of number of firms
Short Term Evolution in Leasing Company Profile
39
32%
18%
28%
4%
33%
18%
27%
4%
31%
14%
32%
4%
30%
18%
29%
5%
30%
16%
34%
4%
29%
16%
37%
5%
29%
16%
37%
5%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
2006200520042003200220012000
Indep Captive Bank Owned Bank
European Market PlayersEuropean Market Players
Based on homogenous sample of members reporting in all surveys, measured in terms of number of firms
Short Term Evolution in Leasing Company Profile
2006:Bank Related: 42%
Captive: 16%
Independent: 28%
2000:Bank Related: 33%
Captive: 18%
Independent: 32%
40
0
10
20
30
40
50
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60%
2001 Ref Line
European Market PlayersEuropean Market Players
% of tot market
# of
firm
s
Concentration of European Leasing Companies
41
0
10
20
30
40
50
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60%
2001 2003
European Market PlayersEuropean Market Players
% of tot market
# of
firm
s
Concentration of European Leasing Companies
42
0
10
20
30
40
50
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60%
2001 2003 2005
European Market PlayersEuropean Market Players
% of tot market
# of
firm
s
Concentration of European Leasing Companies
43
0
10
20
30
40
50
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60%
2001 2003 2005 2006
European Market PlayersEuropean Market Players
% of tot market
# of
firm
s
Concentration of European Leasing Companies
44
Types of Asset on LeaseTypes of Asset on Lease
47.9 bil€
16%
101.7 bil€
34%
46.8 bil€
16%
101.1 bil€
34%
Cars
RECVs
Non Auto Equip
Source: Leaseurope 2006 Annual Survey. Includes data for Leaseurope’s new automotive long term rental members (when available)
New Leasing Volumes per Asset Category (2006)
50% 50%
45
Equipment LeasingEquipment Leasing
8%
41%
6%5%
21%
19%
Computers & Business MachinesRoad Transport VehiclesPassenger Cars
Machinery & Industrial Equip
OtherShips, Rail, Plane, etc
New Equipment Leasing Volumes per Asset Category (2006)
Total Equipment
Volume:
250.7 bil€
46
0%
10%
20%
Equipment LeasingEquipment Leasing
8%
41%
6%5%
21%
19%
Computers & Business MachinesRoad Transport VehiclesPassenger Cars
Machinery & Industrial Equip
OtherShips, Rail, Plane, etc
Asset Share 06 Category Growth 05/06
Growth calculated based on a homogenous sample of members reporting in the previous year
47
0%
10%
20%
Equipment LeasingEquipment Leasing
8%
41%
6%5%
21%
19%
Computers & Business MachinesRoad Transport VehiclesPassenger Cars
Machinery & Industrial Equip
OtherShips, Rail, Plane, etc
Machinery & Industrial Equip
16.25
Computers & Business Machines 3.23
Road Transport Vehicles
17.54
Passenger Cars 2.73
Ships, Rail, Plane, etc
8.78
Category Growth 05/06Asset Share 06
48
0%
10%
20%
0%
10%
20%
Equipment LeasingEquipment Leasing
Road Transport Vehicles
Machinery & Industrial Equip
16.25
Computers & Business Machines 3.23
17.54Passenger Cars
2.73
Ships, Rail, Plane, etc
8.78
Ships, Rail, Plane, etc23.34
Machinery & Industrial Equip
6.97
Computers & Business Machines 3.10
18.38Road Transport Vehicles
9.02Passenger Cars
Growth calculated based on a homogenous sample of members reporting in the previous year
Category Growth 04/05Category Growth 05/06
49
Benelux, AT & CH
14%
9%
16%53%
4% 4%
Nordic
19%
13%
23%
34%
2%8%
Machinery & Industrial EquipComputers & Business Machines
Equipment LeasingEquipment Leasing
Germany
15%
9%
15%49%
3%9%
UK
12%
11%
13%
49%
10%5%
France
24%
11%
24%
38%
1%
Italy
48%
4%18%
19%
11%
Mediterranean
28%
3%
21%
30%
13%5%
CEE
25%
2%
31%
33%
4% 4%
Other Types of EquipShips, Plane, Rail, etc
Passenger CarsRoad Transport Vehicles
Cluster Specialisation (2006)
50
Equipment LeasingEquipment Leasing
29%
44%
4%
16%
27%
44%
5%
15%
27%
45%
5%
16%
22%
47%
4%
16%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
2006 2005 2004 2003
ConsumersConsumers
Public SectorPublic Sector
ServicesServicesIndustry & Industry & ConstructionConstructionAgriculture, Forestry, Agriculture, Forestry, FishingFishing
Other client categoriesOther client categories
Short Term Evolution of Client Categories
51
Real Estate LeasingReal Estate LeasingCluster Specialisation (2006)
Germany
85%
15%
UK
99%
1%
France
86%
14%
Italy
51%49%
Mediterranean
79%
21%
Benelux, AT & CH
94%
6%
CEE
92%
8%
Nordic
99%
1%
Equipment Real Estate
52
Real Estate LeasingReal Estate Leasing
Office Office BuildingsBuildings
26%
Hotels & Hotels & LeisureLeisure
7%
UtilitiesUtilities
2%
Other Other BuildingsBuildings
14%
Industrial Industrial BuildingsBuildings
28% Retail Retail OutletsOutlets
28%
Type of Building Leased in 2006
Total Real Estate
Volume:
46.8 bil€
53
All# (mil) 12,3 2,1 1,5 15,9€ (bil) 256,3 40,5 60,2 357,0
Portfolio/fleet
Focus on VehiclesFocus on VehiclesIn 2006, new Leaseurope membership base brings In 2006, new Leaseurope membership base brings
additional weight in the automotive sectoradditional weight in the automotive sector
All# (mil) 6,2 0,9 0,7 7,7€ (bil) 115,4 21,4 27,9 164,7
Vehicles financed/purchased
Based on figures reported in the 2006 Annual Survey & Leaseurope estimates; includes figures from short term rental associations except for fleet value (€)
54
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
AT BE CH CZ DE DK ES FI FR GR HU IT LU NL NO PL PT SE SI SK UK
Passenger CarsPassenger CarsLeaseurope PCs as % of New RegistrationsLeaseurope PCs as % of New Registrations
New cars bought or financed (used cars excluded, all product types together) compared to new PC registrations taken from ACEA
Leaseurope Average:
35.5%
55
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
14%
16%
18%
AT BE CY CZ DE DK EE ES FI FR GR HU IT LT LU LV NL PL PT SL SK UK
Passenger CarsPassenger CarsLeaseurope PC Fleet as % of Country FleetLeaseurope PC Fleet as % of Country Fleet
Leaseurope fleet ’06 as share of total fleet (’05) taken from EC’s “EU Energy & Transport in Figures “
Leaseurope Average:
6.5%
A Closer Look at Trends in A Closer Look at Trends in Europe & BeyondEurope & Beyond
Tanguy van de WerveDirector General, Leaseurope
Bucharest, 18 October 2007
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