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Economic and Financial UpdateO’Leary Insurance GroupJim Power, Chief Economist, Friends First20th May 2009
The International Background
• Global economy coping with unprecedented shock to financial system
• Most of world in serious difficulty– some green shoots appearing in US – but from very low base
• Global financial system still under serious strain• Considerable personal wealth destroyed• Corporate balance sheets badly damaged• Investor sentiment very fragile, although somewhat better• Massive official policy response to date - more to come• Will take some time to work due to structural problems
Global Economic Outlook(Real GDP) 2008 2009f 2010f
Global Economy 3.2% -1.3% 1.9%
Euro Area 0.9% -4.2% -0.4%
US 1.1% -2.8% 0.0%
UK 0.7% -4.1% -0.4%
Germany 1.3% -5.6% -1.0%
France 0.7% -3.0% 0.4%
Japan -0.6% -6.2% 0.5%
f=forecast
Source: Bloomberg Forecasts
The Irish Economic Background
• Economy in deep recession• Every sector badly affected• Public finances deteriorating rapidly• Labour market deteriorating rapidly• Banking system still in a very uncertain place, despite
re-capitalisation & nationalisation – plan now in place, but will it work?
• Lack of understanding of realities of EMU membership – competitiveness undermined
• Confidence generally very poor across economy• Social Partnership model inappropriate• Image of Ireland has been badly damaged
Causes of Current Irish Crisis
• External situation – but more• Economic policy inappropriate• Failure to control spending• Too much dependence on construction• Loss of competitiveness• Irresponsible bank lending• Irresponsible personal behaviour• Failure of regulation• Bubble economy allowed develop – they always
burst!
An Economy in Recession
Credit Growth (YoY)
Consumer Confidence
Ireland - Unemployment
Irish Economy in 2009
• Will be a very difficult year• Unemployment will rise a lot further• Public finances will remain under pressure• Consumer dynamics to remain difficult• Housing correction has further to run• Competitiveness has to be the focus• Considerable risks on downside at the moment
Conditions for Recovery
• International economic cycle needs to improve• Stabilisation of housing market• Solution to banking crisis• Exchange rate improvement• Fiscal certainty• Competitiveness• Path to recovery will be very difficult!
Competitiveness
• Cost base of economy needs to fall• Focus on outputs rather than inputs in public spending• Lower cost of housing• Lower fuel & energy costs• Lower local authority charges• Minimum wage level• Focus on quality of labour force• IT capability• Broader tax base, low marginal rates• Proper regulatory framework• Functioning banking system• External image of Ireland
Interest Rates
• ECB 4.25% to 1% - could go lower from here.• Federal Reserve now at 0 to 0.25%• Bank of England at 0.5% • Extraordinary times requiring extraordinary responses• New measures being introduced• Rate cycle will rise once economic cycle recovers
Equity Markets
• Markets sentiment looking better• First green shoots of positive news• Global economic background still
very uncertain - but more hopeful• Very strong official response should
eventually work• Markets await concrete signs of economic
stabilisation• Equity markets typically turn 6/9 months
ahead of economic cycle
Equity Markets
2008 Jan 1st -May 15th 2009
FTSE 100 -31.6% -1.9%
Dow Jones -33.8% -5.5%
German DAX -40.4% -1.5%
French CAC -42.7% -1.5%
NIKKEI 225 -42.1% +4.6%
ISEQ -66.4% +12.5%
Effects of Financial Crisis
• Very difficult investment background - nothing 100% safe
• Historically low interest rates• Global economic recession• Global banking system in serious difficulty• Traditional credit lines under serious pressure• Property markets everywhere under serious pressure• Lots of negative equity in mortgage market• Investor sentiment towards domestic banks very poor• Equity background looking better
Thank you!
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