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Dialogue. Insight. Solutions.
COLOMBIA’S TOD NAMAUsing Climate Funds to Catalyze Transformational Urban Development
Steve WinkelmanDirector, Transportation &Climate Adaptation
January 2014
• > $7 billion invested in urban transit over past decade• Benefits
– 32% reduction in travel time in Bogota (-20 minutes)
– 15-20% increase in property values along original line– 23% increase in retail sales in areas with new BRT and cycle
paths and improved public spaces– Health and safety improved– Enhanced tax revenues – Enhanced civic culture
CCAP 1
COLOMBIA: LEADER IN BUS RAPID TRANSIT
CCAP 2
BENEFITS OF BRT AT RISK
CCAP 3
LAND USE & TRANSIT:GENERALLY NOT WELL INTEGRATED
TOD focuses public and private development around transit stations to create neighborhoods where people can safely walk, live, work, shop and play.
CCAP 5
ROADWAY ORIENTED TRANSIT
CCAP 6
TOD REDUCES DRIVING:ARLINGTON, VIRGINIA
CCAP 7
TOD GENERATES LOCAL TAX REVENUES
33% of Arlington County real estate taxes from 8% land
CCAP 8
TOD LOWERS GHG EMISSIONS:CURITIBA, BRAZIL
CCAP 9
ECONOMIC BENEFITS OF TOD:PEOPLE, BUSINESSES, GOVERNMENTS
• Low-income household travel costs: -40% (USA)
• Retail sales: +33% (Dallas light rail)
• Private investment: $100M helped attract $3.5 B (Portland streetcar)
• Property value +18% households w/in 1 km of light rail line in Denver
• Fewer Traffic deaths: 80% less in NYC than Atlanta
• Infrastructure cost savings: 20% lower in California and Mexico• $1 billion in Barranquilla
CCAP 10
COLOMBIAN OPPORTUNITY
FINDETER: Sustainable Cities. New PPP Law.
• TOD Neighborhoods are the “technology”
• Shift where & how public & private investments are made– Increase enviro, economic & social returns– Barranquilla: save $1 billion in infrastructure
• Taps new PPP legislation
• Leverage and mobilize private, national & international funds– $8 billion: transit, social housing – $1.5 billion FINDETER Sustainable Cities– Public investments in TOD can attract up to 20 times their value in private
investment (e.g., NoMa, Portland, Arlington, Hong Kong, Tokyo)
CCAP 11
TOD NAMA WILL TRANSFORM URBAN DEVELOPMENT IN COLOMBIA
• Technical, market, regulatory, policy, institutional…• Local investment gaps• Imperfect public-private collaboration• Inadequate policy integration • Limited value capture and finance mechanisms
CCAP 12
REMOVING BARRIERS TO TOD
CCAP 13
TOD BENEFITS FOR COLOMBIA
CCAP 14
COLOMBIA TOD NAMA: TRANSFORMATION
COLOMBIA TOD NAMA: PARTNERS
• Guide and Focus Strategic Investments in Catalytic Transit Neighborhoods
• Provide policy analysis and guidance to connect national and local policies on transportation, land use and housing with private sector efforts on TOD: – Targeted technical assistance on TOD implementation– Value-capture mechanisms– Replication of policies and plans– Measurement and evaluation
CCAP 16
HOW THE NAMA WORKS
Based on locally-articulated needs
• Project implementation– High-quality design, market analysis, project preparation, pre-construction– Key infrastructure: stations, pedestrian & cycle amenities, public space
• Private-sector collaboration design– Under new PPP law, develop and evaluate RFPs for projects, and
collaboration agreements on TOD implementation
• Finance development– Developing and packaging project funding proposals for domestic and
international investors or donors
CCAP 17
AREAS OF INVESTMENT
CCAP 18
COLOMBIA TOD NAMA: ACTIONS
Financial & Implementation Assistance
CIUDAT
CCAP 19
CATALYTIC TRANSIT NEIGHBORHOODS
Potential locations:
• Cali: Corridor Verde, glorieta redesign, Ciudad Paraiso
• Bogotá: San Bernardo future Metro and BRT station
• Barranquilla: Parque de la Paz (mixed use neighborhood)
• Medellín: Private sector plan for Entre Orillas station area
• Manizales: San Jose affordable housing macro project
• Implementation Progress– Zoning changes, PPPs, policies (CONPES, Decree, PPP guidance…)
• Land Development and Travel– Land use: % of development in TOD areas– Travel: VKT/capita, mode share, trip length
• GHGs– Estimate upfront, measure over time.
• Economic (household, business, governments)– Investment in TOD areas, travel costs, infrastructure, tax revenues, property values, retail
…
• Social– Household travel time, spending on transportation, health
Robust measurement can enhance policy performance.- If address local priorities, it’s desired not a burden (like CDM MRV)
CCAP 20
BROADER APPROACH TO MEASUREMENT
CCAP 21
Range of VKT Savings (2040)% of pop Low High
Large Cities 47% 27% 40%Medium Cities 12% 20% 30%Small Cities 30% 13% 20%Rural 10% 0% 0%Weighted average 100% 19% 29%
0.0
100.0
200.0
300.0
400.0
500.0
600.0
700.0
2010 2025 2040
Base
Ambitious
Aggressive
Passenger Vehicle VKT (millions)
GHG reductions start from passenger VKT reductions.
Reduce growth in driving (VKT) by 25 - 36% due to changed land use and travel patterns
Considers a range of TOD performance and penetration supported by literature
GHG METHODOLOGY AND ASSUMPTIONS:VEHICLE KM TRAVELED (VKT)
CCAP 22
Mode ShareMode Base BAU TOD Change
2010 2040 2040 vs. BAUCar 7% 25% 15% -10%
Motorcycles 7% 25% 17% -8%
Transit 54% 29% 41% 12%
Walk & Bike 20% 9% 15% 6%
Taxis 6% 6% 6% 0%
Other 6% 6% 6% 0%
TOTAL 100% 100% 100%
Average Trip Length 12 12 10.2 -15%
Representative assumptions for a 30% VKT reduction VKT reductions come from shifting
to other modes and shorter average trip lengths
GHG METHODOLOGY AND ASSUMPTIONS:MODE SHARE
CCAP 23
GHG METHODOLOGY AND ASSUMPTIONS:CO2 SAVINGS
0.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
20.0
25.0
30.0
2010 2025 2040
Base
Ambitious
Aggressive
Colombian light duty vehicle emissions (MMTCO2e
Annual savings by 2040: 3.6 to 5.5 MMTCO2
(15-22% below base case)
Emissions corrected for increased transit emissions
Assumes 20% vehicle efficiency improvement in all scenarios
Thank you!
Gracias!
www.ccap.org
Steve WinkelmanDirector, Transportation and Adaptation Programsswinkelman@ccap.org
@stevewink
Chuck KooshianSenior Policy Analystckooshian@ccap.org
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