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Coopera've Strategy for the 21st Century (CS-‐21)
Agenda
Patterns of Acceptance
Strategy Naval Strategy CS-‐21 An Inter-‐Naval Era?
Dialog/Q&A
Pa8erns of Acceptance
INNOVATION SHOEHORNING New Combined Arms
Ubiquity
Brigading
“Shoehorning’
Incorporate the innovation into existing ways of doing business. E.G. – replace pike with bayonet
BrigadingSegregate the innovation into its own organizational
box.Example-‐Strategic Bombing
UbiquityInnovation disseminates broadly across the institutionExamples: -‐Machine guns on everything from infantry to airplanes-‐Airplanes on all types of ships-‐GPS for everyone
New Combined ArmsRecast Doctrine around the innovation.Examples: Re-‐arrange Pike/Musket square into linear formation with rolling volley fire.
Heavy weapons (Storm) units in WW I and II, mix of machine guns, mortars, infantry.
Bo2om lineEven when innovation has proven its value, there still remains uncertainty about how
and where it fits in the organization. It may pass through several “boxes”
Strategy – a Review The Arthur Lykke Model
Ends
Ways
Means
Strategy as ProcessFrank Hoffman, April 2012 Proceedings on “CS-‐21”
“Good Strategy involves hard choices, clear objectives, a continuous assessment of risks, and priorities. …a refreshed iteration of CS-‐21 should do the same.”
Strategy Answers Ques'ons "Any strategic decision is in essence unusually simple. It answers the questions, who, where, and when? In reality, strategy knows only three elements of measure: mass, space, and time."
A.A. Svechin
“With 30,000 men in transports the
English…can paralyze 300,000 of my Army,
and that will reduce us to a second-class
power.”Napoleon Bonaparte
Naval Strategy –Theory
Prefiguring Corbe8The Olney Dispatch
To Great Britain, 1895:“The United States is practically sovereign on this continent and its fiat is law upon the subjects to which it confines its interposition. Why? It is not because of the pure friendship or good-‐will felt for it. It is not simply by reason of its high character as a civilized state, nor because wisdom and equity are the invariable characteristics of the
dealing of the United States.
Olney as Corbe8 (cont)It is because in addition to all other grounds, its infinite resources combined with its ISOLATED POSITION render it MASTER of the situation and practically INVULNERABLE against ANY AND ALL OTHER POWERS.”
[SO THERE]
Coopera've Strategy for the 21st Century (CS-‐21)
Carl von Clausewitz, 1813-‐1814?
“AGAIN, UNFORTUNATELY, WE ARE DEALING WITH JARGON, WHICH, AS USUAL, BEARS ONLY A FAINT RESEMBLANCE TO WELL DEFINED, SPECIFIC CONCEPTS.” 1827
Context/Founda'on Geography -‐ Earth a maritime planet.
Demography, populations move toward water
International Trade moves and is fueled…
FROM THE SEA…
Purpose-‐Corbe8
“...INTEGRATES SEAPOWER WITH OTHER ELEMENTS OF NATIONAL POWER…”
END or ENDSTATES? “…Protect our way of life…”
“…Protecting the homeland…”
Consistent with the grand strategic ends enumerated in the Preamble to the Constitution.
“establish Justice, insure domestic Tranquility, provide for the common defense, promote the general Welfare, and secure the Blessings of Liberty to ourselves and our Posterity.”
Ends or Ways?“…winning our Nation’s wars…”
“…corresponding commitment to preventing war.”
Ways “…secure United State from direct attack…”
“..secure strategic access…”
“…retain global freedom of action…”
“…strengthen…alliances and partnerships”
“…establish favorable security conditions…”
Means US NAVY
US Coast Guard
US Marine Corps
$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$/Popular Will (ways or means?)
“To successfully implement this strategy the Sea Services must collectively
expand the core capabilities of U.S. seapower to achieve a blend of
peacetime…and…combat capabilities.”
How is this workin’ out?
Robert Kaplan CS-‐21 a nuanced call for a bigger Navy?
If so, per Hoffman:“The next iteration should be more forceful, and less
nuanced.”*
*From Hoffman’s April Proceedings article
Hoffman’s Cri'queNot enough linking of ends ways and means
More specifically, means—bigger navy needed
Audience? Ultimately, the Navy
The Mission List Forward Presence (Where?)
Deterrence (Who?)
Sea Control (Where?)
Power Projection (Where? When?)
The Mission List (cont)
Power Projection (Where? When? How?
Maritime Security (what??)
Humanitarian Assistance and Disaster Response (where?)
Improve Integration and Interoperability (Huh?)
The Mission List (cont) Enhance Awareness (whose?)
Prepare our People (How?)
Redefini'on?
SEAPOWER WILL BE A UNIFYING FORCE FOR BUILDING A BETTER TOMMORROW.
[EMPHASIS IN THE ORIGINAL]
FOR WHO?
Kumbaya?
“United States Seapower is a force for good…as it joins with others to promote security and prosperity across the Globe. [It] will be a unifying force for building a better tomorrow.”
An Internaval Era?Barrett Tillman -‐ “Fear and loathing in the Postnaval Era”
R.B. Watts, “The end of Sea power”
“Is Mahan Dead?” You-‐know-‐who
Force Structure?
• Infrastructure – Basing
Center of Naval Analysis – Tipping Point
Hardware/Software Captain Jerry Hendrix -‐ “Fords not Ferraris”
Tipping Point 2-‐Hub option
1-‐Hub option
Shaping option (engagement)
Surge Navy (Interwar model)/Fleet in Being
Shrinking Status Quo Navy
Structure (Hendrix) 16 (10/6) composed of (Amphib/DDG/HSV/LCS)
6 surgeable CSGs (mostly Pac, still 10-‐11 CVNs)
9 ESGs??
Subs-‐status quo with diesels/AIP for littorals
Questions???
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