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Basic Training:Saham sebagai
pilihan investasi &
Fundamental
Analysis, Technical
analysisOleh: Adi Nugroho Wicaksono, SE, MM
2
Tinjauan umum
Mengenal saham, Keuntungan & resiko, mekanisme
perdagangan, jenis investor.
Basic analisa fundamental
Basic analisa Teknikal
3
Apa itu “saham” ???
Bukti kepemilikan atau penyertaan
modal dalam perusahaan (perseroan
terbatas)
4
Dividen (pembagian keuntungan
perusahaan kepada pemegang saham)
Capital Gain (Keuntungan ketika
menjual saham lebih tinggi dari harga
beli)
“Keuntungan SAHAM dapat melampaui
keuntungan DEPOSITO”
Likuid
Keuntungan investasi saham
Dividen
Capital Gain
5
Risiko investasi saham
Capital Loss (Kerugian ketika menjual saham
lebih rendah dari harga beli)
Tidak ada pembagian dividen
Perusahaan bangkrut dan dilikuidasi
Saham disuspend oleh bursa
Saham di delist dari bursa
6
Keuntungan (return) saham vs. instrumen investasi lainnya
7
The risk and reward (in USD)
From bottom in 2008
JCI +381%
KLCI +79%
SET +376%
S&P 500 +247%
From bottom 1998
JCI +1772%
KLCI +473%
SET +931%
S&P 500 +199%
0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
Jan-96 Jan-99 Jan-02 Jan-05 Jan-08 Jan-11 Jan-14 Jan-17
Sumber: Bloomberg, Maybank-KE
8
Grafik pertumbuhan Jumlah Single Investor Identification (SID) (2012-2018)
281,256 320,506 364,465 434,107
894,116
1,120,000
1,610,000
-
200,000
400,000
600,000
800,000
1,000,000
1,200,000
1,400,000
1,600,000
1,800,000
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
Sumber: Ksei
9
investor asing dan lokal dalamkepemilikan saham
30.0%
40.0%
50.0%
60.0%
70.0%
Jul-11
Oct-
11
Jan-1
2
Apr-
12
Jul-12
Oct-
12
Jan-1
3
Apr-
13
Jul-13
Oct-
13
Jan-1
4
Apr-
14
Jul-14
Oct-
14
Jan-1
5
Apr-
15
Jul-15
Oct-
15
Jan-1
6
Apr-
16
Jul-16
Oct-
16
Jan-1
7
Apr-
17
Jul-17
Oct-
17
Jan-1
8
Apr-
18
Jul-18
Oct-
18
Vol Foreign Vol Local
Sumber: BEI
600
1,100
1,600
2,100
2,600
Jul-11 Jul-12 Jul-13 Jul-14 Jul-15 Jul-16 Jul-17 Jul-18
Vol Foreign Vol Local
( Bil unit)
10
Jenis dari investor domestik danasing di Bursa Efek Indonesia
Jenis investor domestik Jenis investor asing
Sumber: BEI
11
Apa yang membuat harga saham“naik” atau “turun” ?
Perubahan Permintaan vs. Penawaran
Faktor yang mempengaruh:
- Kecenderungan untuk membeli/menjual dari pemegang
saham yang eksis.
- Kecenderungan pembelian dari calon pemegang saham.
- Insentif kepada investor yang minim
- Berita/newflow baik dari perusahaan (manajemen), maupun
media (faktor eksternal)
- Rekomendasi Analyst
12
Cara pembukaan rekening saham
13
Mekanisme perdagangan saham
14
Jenis Pasar di Bursa Efek
Pasar Perdana (pasar dimana saham dijual pertama
kali ke publik melalui proses IPO).
Pasar Sekunder :
a. Pasar reguler (transaksi saham setelah dicatatkan di
bursa)
b. Pasar Negosiasi. (transaksi saham melalui negosiasi
antar investor pribadi).
c. Pasar Tunai (transaksi saham pembayaran t+0)
15
Satuan Perdagangan saham1 lot saham-100 lembar saham
kelompok Harga Fraksi Harga Maksimum Perubahan
<Rp 200 Rp1 Rp10
Rp200, <Rp500 Rp2 Rp20
Rp500,<Rp2,000 Rp5 Rp50
Rp2,000,<Rp5000 Rp10 Rp100
>=Rp5,000 Rp25 Rp250
16
Basic Analisa Fundamental
Analisis yang menitiberatkan pada rasio finansial dan kejadian2
yang secara langsung maupun tidak langsung mempengaruhi
kinerja keuangan.
Analisis penilaian terhadap aset secara individual, untuk
mengetahui mendeteksi aset-aset yang tampaknya mispriced
Seorang fundamentalis mencoba mempelajari hubungan antara
harga aset dengan kondisi perusahaan. Nilai saham mewakili
nilai perusahaan. Nilai intrinsik saham < harga pasar adalah
Undervalued, sebaliknya nilai intrinsik saham > harga pasar
disebut Overvalued.
17
Peran research
Memberikan informasi/analisa berita-berita
baik dari dalam negeri maupun luar negeri
yang terkait dengan pasar modal/saham.
Merekomendasikan saham-saham yang layak
dibeli dan dijual berdasarkan analisa
fundamental/ teknikal
18
Metode research
Library research
Mempelajari informasi yang tersedia di publik mengenai
perusahaan dan industri (laporan keuangan, prospektus,
media, jurnal industri, dll)
Field research
Mengunjungi perusahaan
Juru bicara perusahaan – Direktur, Investor Relation, dll
Fasilitas produksi
Studi banding dengan pesaing
Nara sumber industry (AISI, Gaikindo, Pinsar)
19
Informasi yang berpengaruhterhadap saham
Pergerakan saham juga dipengaruhi oleh informasi/berita yang bersifat systematic risk (faktor risikoyang berpengaruh terhadap pasar secara keseluruhan), seperti:
Informasi dari bursa regional dan Wall Street.
Informasi kebijakan pemerintah (contoh kenaikan harga BBM)
Informasi pengumuman data-data makro ekonomi (inflasi, Suku bunga BI rate)
Informasi nilai tukar, minyak dunia.
Sementara pergerakan saham yang dipengaruhi oleh faktor unsystematic risk (risiko pada sahamsecara individual atau sektor), seperti :
Informasi data harga-harga tambang (metal, batu bara), dan kelapa sawit.
Informasi corporate action (pembagian deviden, pengumuman stock split, reverse stock split,saham bonus, dan rights issue (penambahan modal dengan hak memesan efek terlebih dahulu).M&A (merger & acquisition), divestasi.
Informasi kebijakan pemerintah yang berpengaruh terhadap sektor tertentu (contoh: laranganekspor bijih mineral).
Informasi saham secara individual (hasil riset report, berita saham individual, reputasipemilik/GCG)
20
Laporan keuangan
Neraca: Menggambarkan posisi keuangan
perusahaan pada suatu tanggal tertentu
Perhitungan laba rugi: Menggambarkan jumlah
pendapatan, biaya, dan laba/rugi perusahaan
pada suatu periode tertentu.
Laporan arus kas: Memuat sumber dan
pengeluaran kas perusahasan selama satu
periode.
21
Neraca
22
Laba dan Rugi
23
Kinerja P&L apakah sesuaiekspektasi analyst
24
Laporan Arus kas
Aktivitas
pembiayaanAktivitas
Operasi
Aktivitas
pembiayaanAktivitas
Investasi
Aktivitas
Operasi
Aktivitas
Investasi
25
Contoh Arus kas perusahaan
Net
Capex
Free
Cashflow:
Operating
cashflow-
capex
26
5 elemen kunci analisa keuangan
1. Growth ratio (Revenue growth, Operating.profit growth, Net profit
growth).
2. Profitability ratio:
Margin kotor (laba kotor/penjualan)
Laba usaha (Laba usaha/penjualan)
Net margin (laba kotor/ penjualan)
3. Operating efficiency:
Perputaran piutang: penjualan/rata-rata piutang
Perputaran persediaan: Harga pokok penjualan/rata-rata
persediaan.
27
5 elemen kunci analisa keuangan
4. Capital efficiency dan solvency
ROE: Return on Equity (net profit/modal)
ROA: Return on Asset (net profit/asset).
5. Liquidity:
Current ratio: (current asset/current liabilities)
28
+8%
+11%
+25%
+55%
+40%
Gross Margin: 34% 2018 vs.33% 2017
OP. Margin: 17% 2018 vs. 14% 2017
Net Margin: 15% 2018 vs. 12% 2017
29
Breakdown kinerja laba PGAS
30
LK PGAS 2010-2018 vs. harga saham
31
LK United Tractor 2018/2017
Gross Margin: 25% 2018 vs.22% 2017
OP. Margin: 20% 2018 vs. 17% 2017
Net Margin: 13% 2018 vs. 11% 2017
32
Breakdown kinerja UNTR
33
Price is a leading indicator
United Tractors Cuts
This Year’s Heavy
Equipment Sales
Outlook to be around
4,000 units this year
compared to previous
guidance at 4,900-5,000
units. (18/1/19)
34
Metode valuasi dasar
Asset approach: Nilai buku= Nilai pasar asset-nilai
pasar hutang perusahaan.
Market approach:
Harga saham dinyatakan dalam kelipatan (x)
Beberapa contoh: PER, PBV
Pada umumnya semakin rendah valuation multiple
dibandingkan dengan perusahaan sejenis, semakin murah
harga saham – ada perkecualian dan pertimbangan lain
Income approach:
Dihitung dengan melakukan present value dari laba bersih
yang didapatkan di masa datang.
35
Metode Valution multiples
Valuation multiples:
Price earning ratio (PER): harga saham /EPS (laba
bersih per saham).
Price earning ratio (PBV): harga saham/ BVPS (nilai
buku per saham).
36
Interprestasi valuasi multiple
Interprestasi P/E : Umumnya semakin tinggi P/E mencerminkan
investor terhadap pertumbuhan laba perusahaan di masa yang
akan datang.
Interprestasi P/BV: Investor menggunakan P/BV rasio karena
book value menyajikan kondisi keuangan yang relatif stabil. P/BV
biasanya juga digunakan ketika perusahaan mencatat rugi usaha,
sehingga P/E tidak bisa digunakan untuk mengukur valuasi.
Umumnya P/BV digunakan untuk segmen bisnis keuangan (bank).
37
Kwadran chart
P/E
ROE
High P/E
High ROE, earning
growth
High P/E
Low ROE,
earning growth
Low P/E
Low ROE,
earning growth
Low P/E
High ROE, earning
growth
Fair price/ fully valued
Undervalued/murah
Overvalued/mahal
Fair price/ fully valued
38
Contoh saham Low PER, High ROE menjadi high PER, High ROE
5x PER.
ROE 12.6%
22.6x P/E,
ROE: 12.6%.
39
Relative valuation in the sector
Company Market capsCountry
(USD m) FY18 FY19 FY18 FY19 FY18 FY19 FY18 FY19 FY18 FY19
Sri Rejeki Isman 521.1 Indonesia 7.6 5.4 6.4 5.3 1.0 0.8 0.0% 0.0% 9% 40%
Regional sector average
Bros Eastern Co 1,108.2 China 12.5 10.8 11.2 9.7 1.0 0.9 8.0% 8.6% 24.2% 15.0%
Eclat Textile company 3,486.1 Taiwan 23.9 21.0 17.0 14.7 6.4 5.8 28.0% 28.6% 46.6% 14.0%
Far Eastern New Century Corp5,528.3 Taiwan 13.0 12.1 9.9 9.2 0.9 0.8 6.2% 6.7% 53.4% 10.0%
Makalot Industrial Co Ltd 1,125.6 Taiwan 22.6 19.5 14.2 12.3 4.1 3.9 18.0% 20.3% 18.3% 16.1%
Vardhman Textile Ltd 836.8 India 8.8 7.5 6.0 5.3 1.1 1.0 13.1% 13.6% 19.9% 20.0%
Arvind Ltd 1,128.9 India 20.2 15.3 10.4 8.7 2.0 1.8 10.1% 12.8% 28.4% 37.4%
Pacific Textile Holdings 1,468.4 Hongkong 12.4 11.4 9.1 8.5 3.2 3.1 27.0% 28.2% 25.7% 8.7%
Texwinca Holdings Ltd 474.6 Hongkong 11.0 8.8 4.9 4.2 0.7 0.7 6.3% 7.8% 11.4% 24.5%
Texhong Textile Group Ltd 1,152.0 Hongkong 6.1 5.1 5.1 4.5 1.2 1.0 14.2% 21.7% 14.2% 19.8%
Luthai Textile Co 1,059.2 Hongkong 10.0 9.0 6.3 5.9 1.1 1.0 11.3% 11.7% 5.4% 10.5%
Shenzhou Int.Group 18,331.2 Hongkong 27.2 22.6 20.7 17.4 5.5 4.8 22.3% 23.9% 20.6% 20.3%
Average 14.6 12.4 10.1 8.8 2.3 2.1 13.7% 15.3% 23.1% 19.7%
PER EV/EBITDA PBR EPS growthROE %
40
Metode valuation: Income approach
DCF (discounted cash flow Model)
Mengukur nilai sekarang dari laba di masa
yang akan datang.
Value of firm: σ𝑡=1𝑛 𝐹𝐶𝐹𝑡
(1+𝑊𝐴𝐶𝐶)𝑡+𝐹𝐶𝐹𝑛+1/(𝑊𝑎𝑐𝑐−𝑔)
(1+𝑊𝐴𝐶𝐶)𝑛
WACC = 𝐸
𝐷+𝐸(Coe) +
𝐷
𝐷+𝐸(Cod) (1-tax)
Cost of equity: CAPM: Rf +β (Rm-Rf)
G= constant growth rate. (country risk premium= expected market return- risk free rate.
Indonesia = 2.8%)
Free Cash flow: operating cash flow- net capex.
41
Metode valuation: Income approach
Value of Equity = Value of firm
- Interest bearing liabilities
+ Cash
42
Key driver for financial modelling
Revenue drivers: Volumex harga jual rata-rata
Cost: COGS breakdown, OPEX breakdown.
Margin: Gross, EBIT, pre-tax, net margin.
Working capital: Day receivable, Inventory-
days, Days- payable.
Capital expenditure (belanja modal).
Dividend, Tambahan/pelunasan hutang &
modal.
43
Metode valuation: Sum of The Part (SOTP)
Valuasi SOTP adalah kombinasi metode valuasi multiple, asset
based, serta Discounted Cash Flow (DCF). Biasanya digunakan
untuk mengihtung valuasi sektor kongmolerasi yang memiliki segmen
bisnis yang berbeda. Contoh: Saham Astra International (ASII).
Menghitung kinerja bisnis otomotif, plantation, alat berat
menggunakan DCF, sementara bisnis keuangannya, seperti : FIF,
BNLI mengunakkan PBV.
44
Membaca laporan riset
BUY: If potential upside
>10%
SELL: If potential
downside <10%
HOLD: If price between
+/-10%
45
Aksi korporasi
Right issue: langkah perusahaan publik
menerbitkan saham baru yang dijual ke publik
Dividen tunai: bagian laba yang dibagikan
kepada pemegang saham dalam bentuk tunai
Saham bonus: saham yang dibagikan secara
Cuma-Cuma kepada pemegang saham
Dividend saham: laba yang dibagikan kepada
pemegang saham dalam bentuk saham.
46
Aksi korporasi (2)
Stock split: pemecahan nominal saham sesuai
dengan rasio yang ditentukan.
Stock reverse: Penciutan nilai nominal saham
sesuai dengan rasio yang ditentukan.
Tender offer : Penawaran untuk membeli sisa
saham Perusahaan Terbuka yang wajib
dilakukan oleh pengendali baru.
47
Aksi korporasi (3)
Akuisisi : badan hukum yang mengambil alih saham
perseroan, yang mengakibatkan beralihnya
pengendalian atas perseroan tersebut.
Merger : Proses penggabungan dua perusahaan
dengan salah satu diantaranya tetap berdiri dengan
nama perseroan, sementara perusahaan yang
bergabung kekayaannya dimasukkan dalam
perusahaan yang berdiri tersebut.
Backdoor listing: Akusisi perusahaan non Tbk terhadap
perusahaan Tbk.
48
Basic teknikal analysis
Filosopi teknikal Segalanya tercermin pada harga pasar
Harga bergerak dalam trend, dan trend berlanjut.
Pergerakan harga adalah berulang
49
Basic chart types
Line : plot setiap penutupan harga
Bar : plot harga dalam satu hari perdagangan
(harga pembukaan, tertinggi, terendah, dan
penutupan harga)
Candlesticks: gabungan dalam bentuk lilin
warna dalam satu hari perdagangan (harga
pembukaan, tertinggi, terendah, penutupan
harga).
50
Trend
Time Frame:
» Primary trend9 mo – 2 yr
» Intermediate trend6 wk – 9 mo
» Minor trend2 wk - 6 wk
51
Contoh Bar chart
Bar chart dapat menjelaskan periode dalam harian, mingguan,
hingga bulanan. Namun bar chart lebih popular digunakan
dalam chart harian.
52
Candlesticks
Bearish
candle
Bullish
candle
High
Low
Close
Open
Open
Close
53
Pola chart
Trend:
Up trend: urutan dari posisi higher high dan higher low
Down trend:urutan dari posisi lower high dan lower low
Sideways : Ketika harga bergerak stabil tanpa menunjukan trend
Reversal : ketika trend berbalik dari meningkat menjadi menurun,
dan sebaliknya
Resistance: ketika harga dipercaya sulit untuk berlanjut menguat.
Support:Ketigak penurunan harga tidak berlanjut turun.
Channel: pararel antara garis resistance dan support.
54
Pola Trend line
HH
HL
HHHH
HL
Up trend
LL
LH
LH
LLLL
Down trend
Sideways
HH: Higher High
HL: Higher Low
LH: Lower High
LL: Lower Low
55
Reversal pattern
Head and shoulders
Head Right
Shoulder
x
Y
Inverse head and
shoulders
x
y
56
Support & Resistance: High & Low
Highs Resistance
57
Channel pattern
58
Candlestick pattern
Top Reversal:
» Bearish Engulfing Pattern
» Dark Could Cover
» Evening Star
» Gravestone Doji
» Hanging Man
Bottom Reversal:
» Bullish Engulfing Pattern
» Piercing Pattern
» Morning Star
» Dragonfly Doji
» Hammer
59
Candlestick pattern
60
Candestick Pattern
61
Candlestick Pattern
62
Candlestick Pattern
63
Candlestick Pattern
64
Volume analysis
Volume adalah aspek penting dalam teknikal
analysis karena digunakan untuk
mengkonfirmasi trend dan juga pola chart.
Volume to stock relationship
Price Volume Indication
Rising Up Strong
Rising Down Weak
Declining Up Weak
Declining Down Strong
65
Technical Indicator - RSI
Overbought
Overbought If >= 70Oversold If <= 30
Rupiah, Aug 2014
66
Technical Indicator-MACD
IHSG, Jan 2015 Death cross: Sell
Golden cross: Buy
Thank You
Thank You
68 January 2014 68Aug 8th, 2017
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Malaysia: This report is issued and distributed in Malaysia by Maybank Investment Bank Berhad (15938-H) which is a Participating Organization of Bursa Malaysia Berhad and a holder of Capital Markets and Services License issued by the Securities Commission in Malaysia. Singapore: This material is issued and distributed in
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Eng Securities Limited (License Number: 117/GP-UBCK) is licensed under the State Securities Commission of Vietnam.Hong Kong: KESHK (Central Entity No AAD284) is regulated by the Securities and Futures Commission. India: Kim Eng Securities India Private Limited (“KESI”) is a participant of the National Stock Exchange
of India Limited (Reg No: INF/INB 231452435) and the Bombay Stock Exchange (Reg. No. INF/INB 011452431) and is regulated by Securities and Exchange Board of India. KESI is also registered with SEBI as Category 1 Merchant Banker (Reg. No. INM 000011708) US: Maybank KESUSA is a member of/ and is authorized and
regulated by the FINRA – Broker ID 27861. UK: Maybank KESL (Reg No 2377538) is authorized and regulated by the Financial Services Authority.
69 January 2014 69Aug 8th, 2017
Disclosure of Interest
Malaysia: MKE and its Representatives may from time to time have positions or be materially interested in the securities referred to herein and may further act as market maker or may have assumed an
underwriting commitment or deal with such securities and may also perform or seek to perform investment banking services, advisory and other services for or relating to those companies.
Singapore: As of 8 January 2014, Maybank KERPL and the covering analyst do not have any interest in any companies recommended in this research report.
Thailand: MBKET may have a business relationship with or may possibly be an issuer of derivative warrants on the securities /companies mentioned in the research report. Therefore, Investors should
exercise their own judgment before making any investment decisions. MBKET, its associates, directors, connected parties and/or employees may from time to time have interests and/or underwriting
commitments in the securities mentioned in this report.
Hong Kong: KESHK may have financial interests in relation to an issuer or a new listing applicant referred to as defined by the requirements under Paragraph 16.5(a) of the Hong Kong Code of Conduct for
Persons Licensed by or Registered with the Securities and Futures Commission.
As of 8 January 2014, KESHK and the authoring analyst do not have any interest in any companies recommended in this research report.
MKE may have, within the last three years, served as manager or co-manager of a public offering of securities for, or currently may make a primary market in issues of, any or all of the entities mentioned
in this report or may be providing, or have provided within the previous 12 months, significant advice or investment services in relation to the investment concerned or a related investment and may receive
compensation for the services provided from the companies covered in this report.
OTHERS
Analyst Certification of Independence
The views expressed in this research report accurately reflect the analyst’s personal views about any and all of the subject securities or issuers; and no part of the research analyst’s compensation was, is
or will be, directly or indirectly, related to the specific recommendations or views expressed in the report.
Reminder
Structured securities are complex instruments, typically involve a high degree of risk and are intended for sale only to sophisticated investors who are capable of understanding and assuming the risks
involved. The market value of any structured security may be affected by changes in economic, financial and political factors (including, but not limited to, spot and forward interest and exchange rates),
time to maturity, market conditions and volatility and the credit quality of any issuer or reference issuer. Any investor interested in purchasing a structured product should conduct its own analysis of the
product and consult with its own professional advisers as to the risks involved in making such a purchase.
No part of this material may be copied, photocopied or duplicated in any form by any means or redistributed without the prior consent of MKE.
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