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Modelagem Climática da Rede GEOMA: Resultados recentes dos efeitos do
desmatamento, fogo e aquecimento global
I Simpósio da Rede GEOMAOut 2007
Grupo de Interação Biosfera-AtmosferaCPTEC - INPE
Manoel Cardoso, Carlos Nobre, Manoel Cardoso, Carlos Nobre, Manoel Cardoso, Carlos Nobre, Manoel Cardoso, Carlos Nobre, Gilvan Sampaio, Luiz Salazar e Gilvan Sampaio, Luiz Salazar e Gilvan Sampaio, Luiz Salazar e Gilvan Sampaio, Luiz Salazar e
David LapolaDavid LapolaDavid LapolaDavid Lapola
“Regional Climate Change Over Eastern Amazonia Caused by Pasture and Soybean Cropland
Expansion”
Gilvan Sampaio1*, Carlos Nobre1, Marcos H. Costa2, Prakki Satyamurty1, Britaldo S. Soares-Filho3 and
Manoel F. Cardoso1
1 CPTEC/INPE2 UFV
3 UFMG
Geophys. Res. Lett., 34, L17709.13sep2007
Land-cover ScenariosContr 20% 40% 50%
60% 80% 100%
or Soybean
Soares-Filho et al. (2006) / Amazon Scenarios Project, LBA Sampaio et al., 2007
Vegetation classesDorman and Sellers
(1989)
Amazonia - PastureArea: East/Northeast
y = -0.1451x2 - 0.0577x + 1.0084
R2 = 0.9711
0.70
0.75
0.80
0.85
0.90
0.95
1.00
1.05
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%
Deforested Area (%)
Rel
ativ
e pr
ecip
itatio
n (p
/p0)
member 1
member 2
member 3
member 4
member 5
average
Polynom(average)
Sampaio et al. GRL (2007)
decrease in precipitation
associated with pasture expansion
Amazonia - PASTURE
Amazonia - SOYBEANArea: East/Northeast
y = -0.3149x2 + 0.0315x + 1.0102
R2 = 0.9771
0.70
0.75
0.80
0.85
0.90
0.95
1.00
1.05
0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%
Deforested Area (%)
Rel
ativ
e P
reci
pita
tion
(p/p
0 )
member 1
member 2
member 3
member 4
member 5
average
Polynom(average)
the magnitude of precipitation
decrease is higher over soybean than
over pasture
Sampaio et al. GRL (2007)
Amazonia - SOYBEAN
Amazonia - PASTUREArea: East/Northeast
0.6
0.7
0.8
0.9
1.0
1.1
1.2
0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%
Deforestation Area (%)
Rel
ativ
e P
reci
pita
tion
(p/p
0)
DJF
MAM
JJA
SON
Amazonia - SOYBEANArea: East/Northeast
0.6
0.7
0.8
0.9
1.0
1.1
1.2
0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%
Deforestation Area (%)
Rel
ativ
e P
reci
pita
tion
(p/p
0)
DJF
MAM
JJA
SON
PASTURE SOYBEAN
Season All Pasture All Soybean
JJA -27.5% -39.8%
SON -28.1% -39.9%
Relative Precipitation
The reduction in precipitation occurs mainly during the dry season , and is more evident when the deforested area is larger than 40% !
Season All Pasture All Soybean
JJA -15.7% -24.0%all Amazonia
Sampaio et al. GRL (2007)
“Climate change consequences on the biome distribution in tropical South
America”
Luis Salazar1, C. Nobre1 and M. D. Oyama2
1 CPTEC/INPE2 IAE-CTA
Geophys. Res. Lett. (2007), 34, L09708, doi:10.1029/2007GL029695
Projected distribution of natural biomes in South America for 2090-2099 from 15 AOGCMs for the A2 emissions scenarios
Substituição da floresta tropical por savana ! Salazar et al. (2007)
Grid points where more than 75% of the models used (> 11 models) coincide as projecting the future condition of the tropical forest and the savanna in relation with the current potential vegetation. The figure also shows the grid points where a consensus amongst the models of the future condition of the tropical forest was not found. for the periods (a) 2020-2029, (b) 2050-2059 and (c) 2090-2099 for B1 GHG emissions scenario and (d), (e) and (f) similarly for A2 GHG emissions scenario.
2090-20992050-20592020-2029
2090-20992050-20592020-2029
Consensus between natural biome projections - maps
Salazar et al. (2007)
Percentage of the area where more than 75% of the experiments for the A2 GHG scenarios, coincide as projecting the permanence or disappearance of the current potential tropical forest, and where there is not a conclusive consensus amongst models
Consensus between natural biome projections - statistics
Salazar et al. (2007)
“Long-term potential for fires in estimates of the occurrence of savannas in the
tropics”
Global Ecology and Biogeography (2007)DOI: 10.1111/j.1466-8238.2007.00356.x
1 CPTEC/INPE2 IAE-CTA
Manoel Cardoso1, Carlos Nobre1, David Lapola1, Marcos Oyama2 and Gilvan Sampaio1
Dados de referência Result. anteriores CPTEC-PVMResultados anteriores Resultados anteriores Resultados anteriores Resultados anteriores mostram diferenmostram diferenmostram diferenmostram diferençççças as as as importantes entre importantes entre importantes entre importantes entre
dados e estimativas dados e estimativas dados e estimativas dados e estimativas do CPTECdo CPTECdo CPTECdo CPTEC----PVM para PVM para PVM para PVM para a posia posia posia posiçççção de savanasão de savanasão de savanasão de savanas
Dorman and Sellers (1989) �
florestas secasflorestas secasflorestas secasflorestas secas savanassavanassavanassavanas
Fogo natural (longo termo)
Menos árvores
Mais gramíneas
Savana no lugar de florestas
Principal hipótese para explicar estas diferenças: ocorrência de fogo
Raios
Padrões de vento de
grande escala(vento zonal
de leste)
RelaRelaRelaRelaçççção entre resultados ão entre resultados ão entre resultados ão entre resultados novos e antigos novos e antigos novos e antigos novos e antigos
correção
Nova parametrização de fogo baseada no potencial de
raios corrige a maior parte das diferenças
Novos resultadosNovos resultadosNovos resultadosNovos resultados
RepresentaRepresentaRepresentaRepresentaçççção de fogo natural em savanas / CPTECão de fogo natural em savanas / CPTECão de fogo natural em savanas / CPTECão de fogo natural em savanas / CPTEC----PVMPVMPVMPVM
Cardoso et al. (2007)
CG
Potencial de ocorrência de raios
Posição relativa entre fonte de umidade – vento – topografia
2000m
1000m
Potencial de ocorrência de fogo
Principais regiões de savana (amarelo), e topografia e oceanos
Padrões de circulação durante a transição entre estações seca e chuvosa
Sub-regiões de acordo com a época de transição entre estação seca e chuvosa
Impact of using the new fire parameterization in the biome estimates of the CPTEC Potential Vegetation Model:
Accounting for fires corrected important differences between preAccounting for fires corrected important differences between preAccounting for fires corrected important differences between preAccounting for fires corrected important differences between previous vious vious vious model estimates and reference data for the position of natural smodel estimates and reference data for the position of natural smodel estimates and reference data for the position of natural smodel estimates and reference data for the position of natural savannas avannas avannas avannas in the tropics. In specific, large areas in India and SE Asia thin the tropics. In specific, large areas in India and SE Asia thin the tropics. In specific, large areas in India and SE Asia thin the tropics. In specific, large areas in India and SE Asia that were at were at were at were initially estimated as savannas are now corrected to dry forestsinitially estimated as savannas are now corrected to dry forestsinitially estimated as savannas are now corrected to dry forestsinitially estimated as savannas are now corrected to dry forests. . . .
Major vegetation types:(1) broadleaf(1) broadleaf(1) broadleaf(1) broadleaf----evergreen trees (tropical evergreen trees (tropical evergreen trees (tropical evergreen trees (tropical forest), forest), forest), forest), (2) broadleaf(2) broadleaf(2) broadleaf(2) broadleaf----deciduous trees deciduous trees deciduous trees deciduous trees (temperate forest)(temperate forest)(temperate forest)(temperate forest) (3) broadleaf and needleleaf trees (3) broadleaf and needleleaf trees (3) broadleaf and needleleaf trees (3) broadleaf and needleleaf trees (mixed forest)(mixed forest)(mixed forest)(mixed forest) (4) needleleaf(4) needleleaf(4) needleleaf(4) needleleaf----evergreen trees (boreal evergreen trees (boreal evergreen trees (boreal evergreen trees (boreal forest)forest)forest)forest) (5) needleleaf(5) needleleaf(5) needleleaf(5) needleleaf----deciduous trees (larch), deciduous trees (larch), deciduous trees (larch), deciduous trees (larch), (6) broadleaf trees with groundcover (6) broadleaf trees with groundcover (6) broadleaf trees with groundcover (6) broadleaf trees with groundcover (savanna)(savanna)(savanna)(savanna) (7) groundcover only (prairie, steppes)(7) groundcover only (prairie, steppes)(7) groundcover only (prairie, steppes)(7) groundcover only (prairie, steppes) (8) broadleaf shrubs with perennial (8) broadleaf shrubs with perennial (8) broadleaf shrubs with perennial (8) broadleaf shrubs with perennial groundcover (caatinga)groundcover (caatinga)groundcover (caatinga)groundcover (caatinga) (9) broadleaf shrubs with bare soil (9) broadleaf shrubs with bare soil (9) broadleaf shrubs with bare soil (9) broadleaf shrubs with bare soil (semi(semi(semi(semi----desert)desert)desert)desert) (10) dwarf trees and shrubs with (10) dwarf trees and shrubs with (10) dwarf trees and shrubs with (10) dwarf trees and shrubs with groundcover (tundra)groundcover (tundra)groundcover (tundra)groundcover (tundra) (11) bare soil (desert)(11) bare soil (desert)(11) bare soil (desert)(11) bare soil (desert) (13) ice. (13) ice. (13) ice. (13) ice.
Cardoso et al. (2007)
Inclusão do ciclo do carbono no CPTEC PVMDiss. mestradoDavid Lapola
FOTOSSÍNTESEBALANÇO
HÍDRICO
RESPIRAÇÃO
MICROBIANA
RESPIRAÇÃO
VEGETAL
T e P
Vm
LAI
E
w
rcNPP
Diagrama esquemático simplificado do sub-modelo de ciclo de carbono proposto, apresentando os processos que influenciam em cada compartimento. T: temperatura; P: precipitação; w: água no solo; Vm: taxa de carboxilação da Rubisco; LAI: índice de área foliar; NPP: produtividade primária líquida; rc: resistência do dossel; E: evapotranspiração.
Lapola (2007)
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