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I N E A R T H S Y S T E M S C I E N C EC H A L L E N G E S
T H E S T R A T E G I C P L A N 2 0 0 3 - 2 0 1 0
M A X P L A N C K I N S T I T U T E F O R M E T E O R O L O G Y
The overall mission of the Max Planck Institute for Meteo-rology is to understand howphysical, chemical and biolo-gical processes, as well ashuman behaviour contributeto the dynamics of the Earthsystem, and specifically howthey relate to global andregional climate changes.
>> I N H A L T
TA B L E O F C O N T E N T
1. FOREWORD
VORWORT
2. MISSION, OBJECTIVES AND VALUES
SELBSTVERSTÄNDNIS, ZIELE UND NUTZEN
3. KEY SCIENTIFIC QUESTIONS
ZENTRALE WISSENSCHAFTLICHE FRAGEN
4. STRATEGY
4.1. Observing and Modelling Atmospheric Processes
4.1.1 Passive Remote Sensing of the Atmosphere
4.1.2 Lidar Observations of Atmospheric Parameters
4.1.3 Ground-Based Remote Sensing with Radar
4.1.4 Cloud Parameterizations
4.2. Investigating the Interactions between the Physical and
Biogeochemical Processes in the Earth System
4.2.1 Middle and Upper Atmosphere Dynamics, Chemistry and Energetics
4.2.2 Atmospheric Aerosols
4.2.3 Tropospheric Chemistry and Climate
4.2.4 Multicompartmental and slowly Degrading Organic Substances
4.2.5 Interactions of the Carbon Cycle and Biologically Relevant Elements
4.3. Simulating Past, Present and Future Climate
4.3.1 Glacial-Interglacial Transitions
4.3.2 Decadal Variability
4.3.3 Anthropogenic Climate Change
4.4. Regional Climate Change
4.5. Integrating Knowledge into a Comprehensive Earth System Model
5. TOOLS AND FACILITIES
5.1 MPI-M Models
5.2 Scientific Computing
5.3 Remote Sensing Instrumentation
5.4 Climate Service Centre
5.5 Information Technology (IT)
6. COOPERATION
7. EDUCATION AND OUTREACH
7.1 International Max Planck Research School (IMPRS)
7.2 Outreach to the Public
8. ORGANIZATION, MANAGEMENT AND FUNDING
ANNEX:
Max Planck Society for the Advancement of Science,
Munich, Germany and its Institutes in Germany
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>> I N H A L T
”Many scientists owe their greatness not to their skill
in solving problems, but to their wisdom in choosing
them.” (E. Bright Wilson Jr., An Introduction to Scientific
Research, Mc Graw Hill, N.Y., 1952)
We are pleased to present the Max Planck Institute for Mete-
orology’s (MPI-M) Strategic Plan, which charts the course
that we will follow in the coming years for improving our
understanding of the functioning of the Earth system und
developing our ability to predict future climate. The MPI-M’s
Strategic Plan describes our goals and objectives, and dis-
cusses our strategies for providing more information needed
to protect societies from risks caused by climate and other
environmental changes.
Climate change has become a central issue on the interna-
tional scene. The threat of rapid “global warming”, and more
generally of “global change” has led the governments of the
world to elaborate strategies to mitigate the effects expect-
ed from fossil fuel combustion and land-use changes. The
problem of climate change has been a concern of the scien-
tific community for many years. In a landmark paper “On the
Influence of Carbonic Acid in the Air upon the Temperature of
the Ground”, published in 1896, the Swedish scientist,
Svante Arrhenius, estimated for the first time the warming
resulting from changes in the atmospheric concentration of
carbon dioxide. The greenhouse effect, which plays a key role
in the heat budget of our planet, had been described in qual-
itative terms by the French mathematician Joseph Fourier as
early as 1824. Although Arrhenius’s studies had been under-
taken to understand the causes of the ice ages, they provid-
ed the foundation for addressing what became in the 20th
century a question of crucial importance for human societies:
to what extent and under which forms will human activities
produce a significant change in the Earth’s climate?
The climate response to industrialization and other anthro-
pogenic activities is not limited to changes in the mean
temperature. It is also characterized by changes in region-
al weather patterns and in the hydrological cycle, in atmos-
pheric modes of variations (such as El Niño or the North
Atlantic Oscillation), in the frequency of occurrence and
intensity of extreme weather events, with consequences on
the biosphere, socio-economic activities, and health.
To address such societal issues, traditional disciplinary
approaches are not adequate. Rather, the Earth must be rec-
ognized as a coupled system in which physical, chemical and
biological processes interact to create the planetary envi-
ronment. Global Change cannot be understood in terms of
simple cause-effect paradigms. Human effects cascade into
a variety of temporal and spatial scales, and feedbacks can
amplify or damp these perturbations. Anthropogenic
changes, however, are clearly identifiable beyond natural
variability. The rate at which such changes will occur in the
future remains poorly known, despite the efforts made by
the community to understand the Earth’s dynamics and to
predict the future evolution of the Earth system. Critical
thresholds (as in desertification or formation of the ozone
hole) as well as abrupt changes (typical in nonlinear sys-
tems) could have substantial consequences for the global
environment. It is therefore crucial to identify the major
dynamical patterns, teleconnections and feedback loops in
the planetary machinery as well as the characteristic
regimes and time-scales of natural planetary variability. If
these issues are better understood, it will be key to respond
by a better mix of adaptation and mitigation measures to
global change.
Today, the question of climate change must be addressed
in a broad perspective that emphasizes the co-evolution
of nature and society. Research around Earth System
Science is being conducted in several institutions located
in Germany (Max Planck Institute for Biogeochemistry in
Jena, Max Planck Institute for Chemistry in Mainz, Pots-
dam Institute for Climate Impact Research), elsewhere in
Europe and in the world. Strong scientific nodes will
cooperate within flexible national/international networks
of excellence. Within such networks, the Max Planck
Institute for Meteorology (MPI-M) in Hamburg will further
develop its expertise in geophysical analysis and simula-
tion, and address fundamental issues including those
raised by international programmes such as the Interna-
tional Geosphere-Biosphere Programme (IGBP), the World
Climate Research Programme (WCRP), and the Interna-
tional Human Dimensions Programme on Global Environ-
mental Change (IHDP):
• What kind of nature do modern societies want?
• What is the carrying capacity of the Earth as deter-
mined by humanitarian standards?
• What are the equity principles that should govern global
environmental management?
1 . F O R E W O R D
4 |
>> I N H A L T
„Viele Wissenschaftler verdanken ihre Größe nicht
ihrer Fähigkeit, Probleme zu lösen, sondern ihrer
Weisheit, sie auszuwählen.“ (E. Bright Wilson Jr., An
Introduction to Scientific Research, McGraw Hill, N.Y., 1952).
Wir freuen uns, Ihnen den Strategieplan des Max-Planck-
Instituts für Meteorologie (MPI-M) vorstellen zu können.
Er zeigt den Kurs auf, den wir in den kommenden Jahren
einschlagen werden, um unser Verständnis des Erd-
systems zu verbessern und Klimavorhersagen weiter zu
entwickeln. Der Strategieplan des MPI-M beschreibt
unsere Ziele und diskutiert unsere Strategien, Erkenntnis
zu gewinnen, damit die Gesellschaft vor Risiken geschützt
werden kann, die von Klima- und anderen Umweltverän-
derungen ausgehen.
Der Klimawandel ist ein zentrales internationales Thema.
Die Bedrohung durch eine rasche „globale Erwärmung“ und
allgemeiner durch den „globalen Wandel“ führte die
Regierungen der Welt dazu, Strategien auszuarbeiten, um
die Folgen der Verbrennung fossiler Brennstoffe und von
Landnutzungsänderungen zu mindern. Das Problem des Kli-
mawandels ist seit langen Jahren ein Anliegen der wissen-
schaftlichen Gemeinschaft. In einem 1896 veröffentlichten
bahnbrechenden Artikel „Über den Einfluss von Kohlensäure
in der Luft auf die Temperatur des Bodens” schätzte der
schwedische Wissenschaftler Svante Arrhenius zum ersten
Mal, welche Erwärmung aus den Änderungen der atmo-
sphärischen Konzentration von Kohlendioxid resultiert. Der
Treibhauseffekt, der eine Schlüsselrolle in der Wärmebilanz
unseres Planeten spielt, wurde bereits 1824 qualitativ von
dem französischen Mathematiker Joseph Fourier beschrie-
ben. Obwohl Arrhenius’ Studien auf die Erklärung der Eis-
zeiten abzielen, so bereiteten sie die Grundlage dafür, was
im 20. Jahrhundert eine Frage von besonderer Bedeutung für
die menschliche Gesellschaft geworden ist: in welchem
Ausmaß und in welcher Weise führen die Aktivitäten der
Menschheit zu einer signifikanten Änderung des Erdklimas?
Die Antwort des Klimas auf die Industrialisierung und auf
andere menschliche Aktivitäten findet sich nicht nur in
Änderungen der mittleren Temperatur. Sie findet sich auch in
Änderungen regionaler Wettererscheinungen und im
1 . V O RW O R T
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Natural scientists are not in a position to address alone such
complex and broad questions, but they can help defining appro-
priate methodologies for integrating natural-science and social-
science knowledge; they can also contribute to rules for global
stewardship of the Earth system. Ultimately, society will have to
steer the Earth towards desired goals in order to avoid undesired
outcomes of human actions. For this purpose, the scientific com-
munity will have to find the factors that determine the capacity
of the Earth system to allow a sustainable future in face of
strong social and biophysical changes. Decision-makers will
have to learn managing a dynamical system susceptible of large
trends and even abrupt changes.
>> I N H A L T
6 |
Wasserkreislauf, in atmosphärischen Schwingungszuständen
(wie El Niño oder der Nordatlantischen Oszillation), in der
Häufigkeit und Intensität von extremen Wetterereignissen,
mit Folgen für die Biosphäre, sozio-ökonomische Aktivitäten
und die Gesundheit.
Um diese gesellschaftlichen Themen anzugehen, reicht das
traditionelle fächerspezifische Vorgehen nicht aus. Die Erde
muss als gekoppeltes System erkannt werden, in dem physi-
kalische, chemische und biologische Prozesse wechsel-
wirken, um die planetare Umwelt zu schaffen. Globaler Wan-
del kann nicht mit einfachen Ursache-Wirkung-Paradigmen
verstanden werden. Die Folgen menschlichen Handelns ver-
zweigen sich in verschiedenen zeitlichen und räumlichen
Skalen, und die Rückkopplungen können diese Störungen
verstärken oder dämpfen. Änderungen durch die Menschen
müssen von den natürlichen Schwankungen getrennt wer-
den. Die Intensität, mit der solche Änderungen in der Zukunft
auftreten werden, sind noch immer nur unzulänglich bekannt,
trotz der Anstrengungen, die von der wissenschaftlichen
Gemeinschaft geleistet werden, die Dynamik der Erde zu ver-
stehen und die weitere Entwicklung des Erdsystems vorher-
zusagen. Kritische Schwellen (wie in der Wüstenbildung
oder der Bildung des Ozonlochs) sowie abrupte Änderungen
(typisch in nichtlinearen Systemen) könnten substantielle
Folgen für die globale Umwelt haben. Es ist daher entschei-
dend, die wichtigsten dynamischen Zustände, Telekonnektio-
nen und Rückkopplungsschleifen in der planetaren „Maschi-
nerie“ sowie charakteristische Formen und Zeitskalen der
natürlichen Varibilität zu identifizieren. Wenn diese Themen
besser verstanden werden, dann wird das der Schlüssel, mit
einer besseren Mischung aus Anpassungs- und Vermeidungs-
maßnahmen dem globalen Wandel zu begegnen.
Heute muss die Frage des Klimawandels im Wissen um die
gemeinsame Entwicklung von Natur und Gesellschaft gestellt
werden. Die Erforschung des Erdsystems wird in Deutschland
an mehreren Institutionen (z. B. Max-Planck-Institut für
Biogeochemie in Jena, Max-Planck-Institut für Chemie in
Mainz, Potsdam-Institut für Klimafolgenforschung), in Europa
und in der Welt durchgeführt. Führende wissenschaftliche
Zentren werden in flexiblen nationalen/internationalen
Exzellenz-Netzwerken zusammenarbeiten. Innerhalb dieser
Netzwerke wird das Max-Planck-Institut für Meteorologie
(MPI-M) in Hamburg seine Expertise in geophysikalischer
Analyse und Modellierung weiterentwickeln und fundamentale
Fragen angehen, einschließlich der, die von internationalen
Programmen wie dem International Geosphere-Biosphere
Programme (IGBP), dem World Climate Research Programme
(WCRP) und dem International Human Dimensions Programme
on Global Environmental Change (IHDP) gestellt werden:
• Welche Art von Natur wollen die modernen Gesellschaften?
• Was ist die Tragfähigkeit der Erde, bestimmt nach huma-
nitären Standards?
• Was sind die Gerechtigkeitsprinzipien, die dem globalen
Umweltmanagement zugrunde liegen sollten?
Naturwissenschaftler sind nicht in der Lage, diese
komplexen und umfassenden Fragen allein anzugehen, aber
sie können helfen, angemessene Methoden zu definieren,
um die Erkenntnisse der Natur- und Sozialwissenschaften
zusammenzuführen; sie können auch Regeln für einen
verantwortlichen Umgang mit dem Erdsystem beisteuern.
Schließlich wird jedoch die Gesellschaft insgesamt über die
gewünschten Ziele entscheiden, um unerwünschte Folgen
menschlichen Handelns zu vermeiden. Aus diesem Grunde
muss die Gemeinschaft der Wissenschaftler die Faktoren
finden, die die Kapazität des Erdsystems bestimmen, um eine
nachhaltige Zukunft angesichts starker sozialer und bio-
physikalischer Veränderungen zu erlauben. Entscheidungs-
träger werden lernen müssen, mit einem dynamischen
System umzugehen, das sich langfristig und sogar abrupt
ändern kann.
Clouds
Precipitation
Net solar(short wave radiation)
Wind
Lakes and rivers Land surface
processes
Runoff
Human activities
Snow and ice
Volcanicgases andparticles
Currents
Sea-ice
Net terrestrial(long wave radiation)
Ice-oceaninteractions
Air-iceinteractions
Air-oceaninteractions
OCE
AN
ATM
OSH
ERE
SPA
CE
The Max Planck Institute for
Meteorology will contribute
to international efforts to
find the predictable portion
of climate.
>> I N H A L T
>> I N H A L T
Modelling (ENES), which is developing community-oriented
software and common platforms for model integration and
data analysis. In the future, special attention will be given
to the development of advanced numerical algorithms
applied to fluid dynamics equations and system analysis.
New dynamical cores for atmosphere and ocean models on
adapted grids as well as scale-dependent parameterizations
will be developed. Issues related to regional downscaling,
model adaptation to different computer architecture,
advanced data handling, etc. will also be addressed. These
questions call for increased cooperation with applied
mathematicians and software engineers.
High-end Earth system modelling depends on improved
observations as well as on an advanced technical infra-
structure. Although MPI-M is putting a large emphasis on
8 |
The overall mission of the Max Planck Institute for Meteo-
rology is to understand how physical, chemical, and bio-
logical processes, as well as human behaviour contribute
to the dynamics of the Earth system, and specifically how
they relate to global and regional climate changes.
The objectives of the Institute are therefore to undertake
an analysis of the Earth’s composition and dynamics, focus-
ing on the interactive physical, chemical and biological
processes that define Earth system dynamics, and more
specifically to develop and use the appropriate tools to
investigate the complexity of the Earth system, explain its
natural variability, assess how the system is affected by
changes in land-use, industrial development, urbanization,
and other human-induced perturbations. Among these tools
are advanced numerical models that simulate the behav-
iour of the atmosphere, the ocean, the cryosphere and the
biosphere, and the interactions between these different
components of the Earth system. Climate models devel-
oped by the Institute in the last decade will be expanded to
capture biogeochemical and probably human processes and
become comprehensive Earth System Models (ESM). The
MPI-M is committed to develop a comprehensive Earth Sys-
tem Model and make it available to a broad scientific com-
munity in Europe and elsewhere.
In order to reinforce the position of MPI-M in an interna-
tional Earth System Science partnership, a number of intri-
cate issues focusing on scientific computing and software
engineering will have to be tackled. MPI-M already plays
a central role in the European Network for Earth System
8 |
2 . M I S S I O N , O B J E C T I V E S A N D VA L U E S
Atmosheric Physics/Dynamics
Physical Climate System :WCRP
Tropospheric Chemistry
Biogeochemical Systems : IGBP
OceanDynamics
Terrestrial Energy/Moisture
Soil
Water
Climate Change
MarineBiogeochemistry
Global Moisture
TerrestrialEcosystems
Exte
rnal
For
cing
Stra
tosp
heri
cCh
emis
try/
Dyn
amic
s
Pollutants/Greenhouse Gases
HumanActivities :IHDP
Volc
anoe
s
GreenhouseGases
Sun
Land Use
T O W A R D S A N E A R T H S Y T E M M O D E L
>> I N H A L T
| 9
model development and use, it recognizes the importance
of in-situ observations and remote sensing as a key for
improving model formulation and model evaluation. The
Institute is therefore also developing sensors and its own
observational projects with a focus on atmospheric
processes. It also collaborates with other institutions,
including space agencies, involved in Earth observations.
A major challenge for the climate research community,
including MPI-M, will be to develop systematic methods
to integrate information provided by observers and mod-
ellers. Major areas for interactions include (1) the evalu-
ation of model results against observations following a
validation strategy developed together by observers and
modellers; (2) the development of parameterizations of
physical processes at different scales; and (3) the joint
analysis and interpretation of results towards a better
understanding of Earth system processes.
Climate research programmes often emphasize the need for
better understanding the complex processes that govern the
Earth system (modelling for understanding). With the
progress made in the last years, including the development
of modelling and of observational capabilities, climate
anomaly predictions on timescales ranging from weeks or
a season to even years became possible (modelling for
societal benefit). MPI-M will contribute to international
efforts to find the predictable portion of climate. In this
regard, models could be used to assess the consequences
of geo-engineering actions proposed to mitigate human-
driven perturbations in the Earth system.
The success of the endeavour at MPI-M requires the
implementation of an ambitious and broad programme
involving the long-term support of scientific and technical
staff committed to play a leadership role, the availability
of an advanced research infrastructure including a large
supercomputing facility, the integration of research
efforts into educational/outreach initiatives, and the
achievement of high scientific productivity. It also
requires a further development of the human capital pre-
sent in the Institute, a broadening of the traditional
approaches towards integrative and interdisciplinary
methodologies, an improvement of internal and external
communication, also through the use of the most modern
information technologies. MPI-M is committed to enhance
the diversity of its staff, to increase the proportion of
women, and facilitate the access of parents to infrastruc-
ture for child support.
MPI-M’s role will be to integrate scientific information
originating from different disciplines and to develop new
knowledge of societal relevance through synthesis. To be
successful, this approach will have to recognize the need
for a multitude of intellectual ways of thinking and scientific
methodologies (observations, modelling, data analysis),
the presence of a staff team with different disciplinary
backgrounds, the role of local, national and international
cooperation and partnerships with other academic institutions
and with the private sector, the importance of commu-
nication, the link between research and education, and
the need for information of decision-makers and of the
public.
• Extension of physical climate models towards comprehen-sive Earth system models.
• Development of a new dynamical core for a global non-hydro-static atmospheric and oceanic model component.
• Quantification of energy, water and carbon partitioning at theland surface, jointly with MPI for Biogeochemistry in Jena,Germany.
• Study of the energetics, dynamics and chemistry of themesopause region and influences of upper atmosphere vari-ability on lower atmosphere processes.
• Development of chemical transport model components,analysis of field campaigns, quantification of global chemi-cal budgets using space observations, prediction of chemicalweather and longer-term variability.
• Assessment of the role of dynamical modes in climatechange.
• Investigation of the glacial-interglacial transitions.• Integrated study of the fate of persistent organic pollutants in
the Earth system.• Modelling of scale interactions and vertical layering.
E X A M P L E S O F N E W T H E M E S A T T H E M P I - M
>> I N H A L T
Das zentrale Ziel des Max-Planck-Instituts für Meteorolo-
gie ist es, zu verstehen, wie physikalische, chemische
und biologische Prozesse sowie menschliches Ver-
halten zur Dynamik des Erdsystems, und insbesondere
wie sie zu globalen und regionalen Klimaänderungen
beitragen.
Die Teilziele des Instituts sind daher, die Zusammensetzung
der Erde und ihrer Dynamik zu analysieren, mit Schwerpunkt
bei den interaktiven physikalischen, chemischen und biolo-
gischen Prozessen, die die Dynamik des Erdsystems bestim-
men. Insbesondere sollen angemessene Werkzeuge ent-
wickelt und benutzt werden, um die Komplexität des Erd-
systems zu untersuchen, seine natürliche Variabilität zu
erklären, und abzuschätzen, wie das System durch Land-
nutzungsänderungen, industrielle Entwicklung, Verstädte-
rung und andere anthropogene Störungen beeinflusst wird.
Solche Werkzeuge sind insbesondere fortgeschrittene nu-
merische Modelle, die das Verhalten der Atmosphäre, des
Ozeans, der Kryosphäre und der Biosphäre sowie die
Wechselwirkungen zwischen diesen verschiedenen Kompo-
nenten des Erdsystems nachbilden. Die im vergangenen
Jahrzehnt am Institut entwickelten Klimamodelle werden
um die biogeochemischen und wahrscheinlich auch die
sozialen Prozesse zu umfassenden Erdsystemmodellen (ESM)
erweitert. Das MPI-M hat sich verpflichtet, ein umfassendes
Erdsystemmodell zu entwickeln und es der breiten wissen-
schaftlichen Gemeinschaft in Europa und anderswo zur
Verfügung zu stellen.
Um die Position des MPI-M in einer internationalen Part-
nerschaft der Erdsystemwissenschaften zu stärken, sind
einige komplizierte Probleme im Bereich wissenschaftliches
Rechnen und Softwareentwicklung in Angriff zu nehmen. Das
MPI-M spielt schon jetzt eine zentrale Rolle im „European
Network for Earth System Modelling (ENES)“, welches Soft-
ware und gemeinsame Plattformen zur Modelleingliederung
und Datenanalyse entwickelt. In der Zukunft wird besondere
Aufmerksamkeit auf die Entwicklung von fortgeschrittenen
numerischen Algorithmen für die Gleichungen der Strömungs-
dynamik sowie die Systemanalyse gelegt. Neue dynamische
Kerne auf angepassten Gittern für die Modelle der
Atmosphäre und des Ozeans sowie skalenabhängige Parame-
terisierungen werden entwickelt. Auch Fragen zur regionalen
Feinauflösung, zur Modellanpassung an verschiedene Rech-
nerarchitekturen und zum fortschrittlichen Umgang mit Daten
sind dabei zu untersuchen. Diese Fragestellungen bedürfen
einer wachsenden Zusammenarbeit mit angewandten
Mathematikern und Softwareingenieuren.
10 |
2 . S E L B S T V E R S T Ä N D N I S , Z I E L E U N D N U T Z E N
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>> I N H A L T
| 11
Anspruchsvolle Erdsystemmodellierung ist sowohl von ver-
besserten Beobachtungen als auch von einer fortschritt-
lichen technischen Infrastruktur abhängig. Obwohl das
MPI-M ein großes Gewicht auf die Modellentwicklung und
-nutzung legt, so ist ihm doch die Wichtigkeit von in situ
Beobachtungen und Fernerkundung als einem Schlüssel für
die Verbesserung der Modellierung und der Modellevaluie-
rung bewusst. Das Institut entwickelt daher auch neue
Sensoren und gestaltet eigene Feldexperimente mit
Schwerpunkt bei den atmosphärischen Prozessen. Es
arbeitet auch mit anderen Institutionen zusammen, die in
Erdbeobachtungen involviert sind, einschließlich Raum-
fahrtbehörden. Eine der großen Herausforderungen für die
Klimaforschung, das MPI-M eingeschlossen, wird sein, die
Methoden zur systematischen Kombination von Beobach-
tungen und Modellen zu verbessern. Hauptgebiete für eine
Zusammenarbeit umfassen (1) die Evaluierung von
Modellergebnissen mittels Beobachtungen mit einer
Strategie, die gemeinsam von Beobachtenden und
Modellierenden entwickelt wurde; (2) die Entwicklung von
skalenabhängigen Parameterisierungen physikalischer
Prozesse; und (3) die gemeinsame Analyse und Interpreta-
tion von Ergebnissen für ein besseres Verständnis der
Erdsystemprozesse.
Klimaforschungsprogramme betonen oft die Notwendigkeit
von besserem Verständnis der komplexen Prozesse, die das
Erdsystem steuern (Modellierung für Verständnis). Mit dem
Fortschritt der letzten Jahre, einschließlich desjenigen bei
Modellierung und Beobachtung, sind Vorhersagen von Klima-
anomalien auf Zeitskalen von Wochen oder einer Jahres-
zeit bis sogar zu Jahren möglich geworden (Modellierung
zum Wohl der Gesellschaft). Das MPI-M wird zu den inter-
nationalen Anstrengungen beitragen, das Vorhersagbare
im Klimageschehen zu finden. Daher könnten die Modelle
auch genutzt werden, um die Folgen vorgeschlagener
Ingenieurslösungen zur Milderung unserer Eingriffe in das
Erdsystem abzuschätzen.
Für den Erfolg der Forschungsvision des MPI-M ist ein am-
bitioniertes und breites Programm nötig. Dieses braucht
die kontinuierliche Unterstützung der wissenschaftlichen
und technischen Mitarbeiter, die bereit sind, eine Führungs-
rolle zu spielen. Es wird aber auch eine leistungsfähige
Forschungsinfrastruktur einschließlich eines großen Super-
computers, die Integration der Forschung in Lehre und
Öffentlichkeitsarbeit sowie das Erreichen hoher wissen-
schaftlicher Produktivität gebraucht. Das Programm erfor-
dert außerdem eine Fortentwicklung des Personals, eine
Ausweitung der traditionellen Herangehensweisen hin zu
integrativen und interdisziplinären Methoden und eine
Verbesserung der internen und externen Kommunikation,
auch durch den Gebrauch der modernsten Informations-
technologien. Das MPI-M verpflichtet sich, die Vielseitig-
keit seiner Mitarbeiter weiter zu erhöhen, den Anteil von
Frauen zu vergrößern und Eltern die Möglichkeit von
Kinderbetreuung zu geben.
Die Aufgabe des MPI-M wird sein, wissenschaftliche Infor-
mation aus verschiedenen Disziplinen zu integrieren und
neue Kenntnisse von gesellschaftlicher Relevanz durch
Synthese zu entwickeln. Um dabei erfolgreich zu sein,
braucht es vielfältige intellektuelle Denkweisen und
wissenschaftliche Methoden (Beobachtungen, Modellie-
rung, Datenanalyse), und einen Mitarbeiterstab aus unter-
schiedlichen Wissensgebieten. Weiterhin sind lokale,
nationale und internationale Kooperationen und Partner-
schaften mit anderen akademischen Institutionen und dem
privaten Sektor gefragt ebenso wie ein hoher Stellenwert
der Kommunikation, der Verbindung zwischen Forschung
und Lehre und der Information von Entscheidungsträgern
und Öffentlichkeit.
12 |
• Will the fraction of anthropogenic carbon removed from
the atmosphere grow or shrink in the 21st century?
• What is the role of biospheric feedbacks for the evolution
of atmospheric carbon dioxide content, and how will this
role evolve in a world with massive land-use changes?
• What physical/chemical/biological mechanism(s) stabi-
lize the greenhouse effect of the atmosphere in the long
term?
• What are the feedbacks between the atmospheric chem-
ical composition and the climate system?
• How can we define objective measures to assess model
performance?
• Is the Earth system manageable at all in terms of long
term “climate steering”?
Concrete actions will be developed by the Institute to
address specific aspects of these overarching questions.
The overarching scientific objectives of the Institute will be
best addressed by answering some specific, yet broad ques-
tions, such as:
• Which physical mechanisms lead to climate variability on
timescales up to decades?
• Does the El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) vary on
centennial timescales, and is it affected by anthro-
pogenic factors?
• Are we approaching a bifurcation in the climate system?
Could we experience an abrupt climate change?
Die umfassenden wissenschaftlichen Ziele des Instituts
werden am besten durch die Beantwortung einiger speziel-
ler, jedoch breitgefasster Fragen verdeutlicht, wie:
• Welche physikalischen Mechanismen führen zur Klima-
variabilität auf Zeitskalen bis zu Jahrzehnten?
• Variiert das El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) Phäno-
men auf einer Zeitskala von Jahrhunderten und wird es
durch die Menschheit schon beeinflusst?
• Nähern wir uns einer Verzweigung im Klimasystem mit
einem abrupten Klimawandel?
• Wird der Anteil anthropogenen Kohlenstoffs, der bisher
aus der Atmosphäre entfernt wird, im 21. Jahrhundert
wachsen oder schrumpfen?
• Welche Rolle spielen die biosphärischen Rückkopplungen
für die Entwicklung des atmosphärischen Kohlendioxidge-
halts, und wie werden sie sich in einer Welt mit massiven
Landnutzungsänderungen entwickeln?
• Welche physikalischen/chemischen/biologischen Mecha-
nismen stabilisieren für lange Zeitskalen den Treibhaus-
effekt der Atmosphäre?
• Welche Rückkopplungen gibt es zwischen der chemischen
Zusammensetzung der Atmosphäre und dem Klimasystem?
• Wie können wir objektive Kriterien zur Bewertung von
Modellen definieren?
• Ist das Erdsystem überhaupt im Sinne von langfristiger
„Klimasteuerung“ lenkbar?
Konkrete Aktivitäten des Instituts sind notwendig, um
spezielle Aspekte dieser übergreifenden Fragen zu beant-
worten.
3 . K E Y S C I E N T I F I C Q U E S T I O N S
3 . Z E N T R A L E W I S S E N S C H A F T L I C H E F R A G E N
>> I N H A L T
MPI-M's role will be to inte-
grate scientific information
originating from different dis-
ciplines and to develop new
knowledge of societal rele-
vance through synthesis.
>> I N H A L T
The MPI-M is developing its
research strategy around five
major foci: the understanding of
atmospheric processes, the inves-
tigation of key interactions between
biogeochemical and physical
processes at different scales, the
simulation of past, present and
future climate, the assessment of
the impacts of global and region-
al changes, and the integration of
knowledge into comprehensive
Earth system models.
>> I N H A L T
The Max Planck Institute for Meteorology is developing its
research strategy around 5 major foci: (1) the understanding
of atmospheric processes; (2) the investigation of key inter-
actions between biogeochemical and physical processes at
different scales; (3) the simulation of past, present and
future climate; (4) the assessment of the impacts of global
and regional changes, and (5) the integration of knowledge
into comprehensive Earth system models.
4 . 1 . O B S E R V I N G A N D M O D E L L I N G A T M O S -P H E R I C P R O C E S S E S The quality of climate models depends directly on the quality
of the representation of physical processes, many of which are
not explicitly resolved, but play a key role in the Earth system.
Parameterizations of processes such as convection, boundary
layer physics, cloud formation, precipitation, radiative transfer,
etc. rely on detailed observational as well as high resolution
modelling studies. Existing data sets and observation systems
generally have deficiencies in at least one of the key require-
ments: accuracy, resolution, or 4-dimensional coverage. To
improve this situation new analysis methods and instruments
are necessary. The instrument development at the MPI-M con-
centrates on ground-based profiling of key parameters such as
temperature, water vapour, wind, aerosol, clouds, precipita-
tion and selected trace gases. These instruments are applied
in field measurements and the results are used together with
data from space platforms, research aircraft and Large Eddy
Simulation (LES) modelling to improve the formulation of key
processes in climate models. MPI-M will work with partners in
Germany to secure the acquisition of a High Altitude Long-
Range aircraft (HALO). Such aircraft will be a key facility to
study climate-related processes, especially in the region of the
tropopause. Another great opportunity is provided by new
spaceborne instrumentation, and specifically by the ENVISAT
sensors. MPI-M will collaborate with other groups and partic-
ipate in field campaigns to integrate data provided by different
sensors, using its most advanced models.
MPI-M recognizes the need for instrumentalists, data ana-
lysts and modellers to work closely together from the begin-
ning of the design of field experiments. In most cases, future
MPI-M projects will therefore be planned as joint initiatives
with staff from several departments.
4.1.1 Passive Remote Sensing of the AtmosphereLong-term observations of the atmosphere using ground-based
or space-borne instrumentation will provide information required
to improve the parameterization of radiative transfer in climate
models. MPI-M will continue to evaluate satellite data, specifi-
cally the “Hamburg Ocean Atmosphere Parameters and Fluxes
from Satellites Data Set (HOAPS)” that provides information on
energy and moisture exchange between the sea surface and the
atmosphere. Surface based work will be centred around the
4 . S T R AT E G Y
| 15
Water vapour is one of the most importantconstituents of the atmosphere playing akey role in most physical and many chem-ical atmospheric processes. It is the mostimportant greenhouse gas, has a strongindirect impact on the radiation balancethrough cloud formation at a broad rangeof altitudes, fuels convective processesbecause of the large latent heat release atcondensation and sublimation, and is thekey component of the atmospheric part ofthe water cycle. Although observations ofthe water vapour distribution are urgentlyneeded, current observation systems do
not meet the requirements with respect toaccuracy, resolution, and coverage. Thisis particularly true for data on the verticalhumidity distribution.Laser remote sensing methods usingeither the differential absorption (DIAL) orthe Raman lidar technique are mostpromising to obtain the necessary infor-mation about the vertical distribution ofwater vapour with good spatial and tem-poral resolution. While Raman lidar pro-vides excellent results during night time, itis the DIAL technique that is adequate fordaytime measurements. The lidar group of
the MPI-M has developed prototypeinstruments and characterized them inseveral intercomparison campaigns. Forboundary layer studies a resolution of 60 min the vertical and 10 s in time has beenachieved with a relative error of less thana few percent. This is very useful for stud-ies of convective processes. In combina-tion with RASS measurements of the verti-cal wind field, the technique has beenapplied for measuring profiles of the latentheat flux. Water vapour measurementshave been performed up to about 5 km alti-tude with an accuracy of better than 10%.
V E R T I C A L D I S T R I B U T I O N O F W A T E R V A P O U R
Snow melt
Humidity
Friction Sensible heatflux
Groundtemperature Snow Ground
humidity
Radiation Cumulusconvection
Adiabaticprocesses
StratiformprecipitationDiffusion
Winds
Groundroughness
Temperature
Evaporation
>> I N H A L T
>> I N H A L T
16 |
ECHAM, and replace them by better physical formulations. In
the future, chemistry will be included into the LES model to
study how atmospheric boundary layer characteristics and
processes influence chemical reactions. The formulation of
radiative transfer in clouds will also be improved by applying
LES modelling.
Ocean Atmosphere Sounding Interferometer System (OASIS)
that yields well calibrated moderate resolution sky spectra for
the retrieval of various atmospheric components (e.g., temper-
ature and water vapour profiles, trace gases and aerosols).
4.1.2 Lidar Observations of Atmospheric ParametersLidar techniques provide a powerful way to measure the vertical
profiles of key parameters in the atmosphere. MPI-M has devel-
oped unique methodologies and instrumentation to measure
water vapour, ozone, aerosols and winds using laser remote
sensing. This instrumentation is being used in support of field
campaigns and forms the basis for a European Lidar Network
(EARLINET), which will produce for the first time a comprehen-
sive data set describing the vertical distribution of aerosols on a
continental scale. EARLINET operation will continue in the
future to achieve a sufficiently broad statistical basis, to include
new stations, and to optimize network operations. The Lidar
group within MPI-M will also support the establishment of a
water vapour reference station at Lindenberg Observatory of the
German Weather Service (DWD), Offenbach, Germany. Techno-
logical developments will focus on the next generation of water
vapour DIAL and the completion of a Doppler-DIAL. This data set
will be particularly useful to evaluate aerosol models developed
and used at MPI-M and elsewhere.
4.1.3 Ground-based Remote Sensing with RadarRadar technology will be used to study the dynamic processes
of the lower atmosphere, and specifically to measure the
fluxes of energy, momentum and atmospheric constituents
(in combination with Lidar), and to study the structure of
the atmospheric boundary layer. Long-term observations of
vertical wind and turbulence profiles have shown the pres-
ence of dynamic features in the boundary layer, which call
for improved parameterizations in atmospheric models. Clouds
and precipitation will also be investigated with the purpose
of better characterizing cloud microphysics and cloud bound-
aries, and to improve the difficult measurement of precipita-
tion. Progress in the coming years will come from synergetic
observations using combined systems. A cloud-radar will be
adapted and installed on the HALO aircraft and used in
support of field campaigns dealing with the hydrological
cycle and with cloud physics and chemistry.
4.1.4 Cloud ParameterizationsA major difficulty for climate modellers is to accurately
account for the effects of clouds, and specifically of stratocu-
mulus clouds in the Earths boundary layer on radiative fields.
An important objective of MPI-M is therefore to advance our
understanding of the physical processes that determine the
thermal and dynamical state of the cloud topped boundary
layer, and to evaluate and improve methods of representing
shallow cloud systems in global climate models. MPI-M has
developed a Large Eddy Simulation (LES) model, and will per-
form large eddy simulations in order to identify deficiencies
in cloud parameterizations used in global models such as
A E R O S O L L I D A R M E A S U R E M E N T S
S I M U L A T I O N M E A S U R E M E N T S with Micro Rain Radar (MRR) and Weather Radar
Saharan dust event over Hamburg, June 17, 2002 The EARLINET Network
time/minutes
d/dR ln(Pr2), � = 1064 nm, starting time 2002/06/17 12:43 UT, Hamburg City
attit
ude/
m
d/dR
In(P
r2 )
Latti
tude
, deg
Weather radar reflectivity derived fromMRR Doppler spectra versus measuredWeather radar reflectivity.
The actual drop size distribution obtained withthe MRR provides the pertinent Z_R-relationfor the weather radar.Weather radar data, measured aloft, can belinked to the surface using the MRR-profiles.
50
40
30
20
10
0
10
20
20 10 0 10 20 30 40 50
Zingst 20000710, 20000714MRR beam
Weather Radar51.48 km
MRR2 Antenna
Weather radar beams
900m
900m
900m
J. B
ösen
berg
and
co-
wor
kers
G. P
eter
s
70
60
50
40
0
20
5980
5382
4784
4186
3588
2990
2392
1794
1196
598
2.42.22.01.81.61.41.21.00.80.60.40.20.0
-0.2-0.4-0.6-0.8-1.0-1.2-1.4-1.6-1.8-2.0-2.2-2.4
60°
50°
40°
30°
-30 -20 -10 0 10 20 30Longitude, deg0 96 192 288 384 480
350° 0° 10° 20° 30° 40°
>> I N H A L T
| 17
4 . 2 . I N V E S T I G AT I N G T H E I N T E R A C T I O N SB E T W E E N T H E B I O G E O C H E M I C A L A N D P H Y S I -C A L P R O C E S S E S I N T H E E A R T H S Y S T E MIn the last years, MPI-M has recognized the need to broaden
its research objectives and include (beyond questions focus-
ing on the physical climate system) issues involving biogeo-
chemical cycles and their interactions with other aspects of
the Earth system.
4.2.1 Middle and Upper Atmosphere Dynamics, Chem-istry and EnergeticsA large emphasis will be put on the role of the stratosphere
and the mesosphere in the climate system. Such studies
will use the middle atmosphere version of ECHAM-5, which
includes a representation of chemical and microphysical
processes. This model will be used to investigate the role of
the quasi-biennial oscillation on the mean circulation, on
extratropical interannual variability, on trace gas concentra-
tions, on tropospheric convection, and on mesospheric vari-
ability. Other sources of variability will be considered
including tides and gravity waves. The issue of ozone recovery
in a changing climate with a different underlying chemical
composition and aerosol load will also be addressed.
Another important aspect to be considered is the coupling
between dynamics, chemistry and energetics in the middle and
upper atmosphere. Such studies require the use of a coupled
model that accounts for all these interactions. An extension of
ECHAM-5 to the lower thermosphere (250 km), called HAM-
MONIA, will be used to quantify the energy budget in the
region of the mesopause, to assess the impact of extraterres-
trial and human (CO2 or CH4 emissions) perturbations on the
thermal structure and the dynamics of the upper atmosphere.
One important goal is to determine, which role the middle and
upper atmosphere play in determining the response of the
climate system to external perturbations.
In order to better quantify the role of the stratosphere in the
evolution of the Earths climate, MPI-M will conduct studies to
highlight, how changes in natural modes of variability, such as
the Northern Annular Mode (NAM), affect tropospheric climate.
4.2.2 Atmospheric AerosolsAerosol particles also affect the climate system: they modify
the atmospheric fields of solar radiation, influence the forma-
tion of cloud droplets and ice crystals, change the optical and
physical properties of clouds, and hence modify the hydrolog-
ical cycle. Aerosols also fertilize the marine and terrestrial
biosphere, and carry toxic substances such as the persistent
organic pollutants. Their presence in polluted areas may
cause health problems. MPI-M, in cooperation with the Euro-
pean Commission's Joint Research Centre, Ispra, Italy, will
include in ECHAM-5 a detailed size-resolving aerosol model
(describing external, insoluble and internal, soluble aerosol
modes) that accounts for microphysical processes including
nucleation, condensation, and coagulation. The impact of
anthropogenic aerosols on climate (specifically on the surface
temperature, evaporation and precipitation) and on atmos-
pheric chemistry will be assessed.
In addition interactions between aerosols, trace gases, the
water and energy cycle will be addressed at the regional
scale. Examples of regional studies are the impact of Arctic
pollution and biomass burning in tropical areas on the dynamics
and radiative forcing. This will include sensitivity studies of
these effects on the global circulation. MPI-M will also continue
to use data from existing and future satellites to investigate
aerosol-climate interactions (indirect aerosol effects).
Furthermore the sources and sinks of sulfate aerosol in the
upper troposphere and lower stratosphere will be studied
and a chemistry-microphysics-climate model will be used to
assess the impacts of aerosols on stratospheric dynamics
and chemistry (ozone), on polar stratospheric clouds, on cirrus,
as well as on tropospheric climate. The response of the
atmosphere including changes in synoptic and large-scale
patterns due to past volcanic eruptions will also be
assessed. To quantify the impacts and specifically the
Aerosol pollution over Northern India and Bangladesh
©N
ASA,
Vis
ible
Ear
th, 2
001
>> I N H A L T
18 |
fraction of volcanic material that penetrates into the
stratosphere, a high-resolution model (e.g., ATHAM) will
be used, which describes the behaviour of gas and par-
ticles in high-energy plumes. The relative importance of
dynamics, cloud microphysics, particle aggregation and
gas scavenging in convective regions is accounted for by
this type of model.
4.2.3 Tropospheric Chemistry and ClimateChemical trace species play an important role in climate
change through their radiative properties and through their
ability to affect the “oxidation power” of the atmosphere,
i.e., the ability of the atmosphere to clean itself from pol-
lutants. MPI-M will analyze the trends and short-term to
decadal variability of tropospheric trace gas concentra-
tions, and quantify the factors contributing to this variabil-
ity. The ultimate goal of the studies at MPI-M is to under-
stand and quantify the importance of the feedbacks
between the climate system and the atmospheric chemical
composition.
Activities at MPI-M will focus on the development and
application of complex 3-dimensional models (e.g.,
MOZART and ECHAM-5 with coupled chemistry) to better
understand the formation and fate of chemical con-
stituents, and to better quantify their global and regional
budgets. The dominant factors controlling the chemical
composition of the troposphere are the transport process-
es (long-range horizontal and vertical advection, boundary
layer diffusion, convection, etc.), emission and deposition
processes, and photochemical transformations. With the
increasing capabilities of the global Earth observing sys-
tem, detailed and high-quality meteorological fields for
driving these models will become available. We will take
advantage of these developments by designing new and
improved parameterizations of physical and chemical
processes. For the quantification of surface emission and
deposition fluxes, the models require the inclusion of
feedbacks between the atmosphere and the terrestrial
and oceanic biosphere, and they need to consider socio-
economic changes. Emission and deposition models will
AlertPt. BarrowNiwot RidgeCape KumukahiMauna LoaAm. SamoaCape GrimSouth Pole
Aerosols play an important role in the Earthsystem because they affect human health,ecosystems, the composition of the atmos-phere including the ozone layer, weather,and climate. The impact of aerosols on cli-mate has been identified as one of the mostuncertain contributions to the climatechange issue. In spite of their importance,reliable and comprehensive data on thedistribution of aerosols, in particular in thevertical, are virtually nonexistent.In order to fill this gap a project has beenimplemented to perform systematic, coor-dinated, and quality controlled measure-
ments of the vertical distribution ofaerosols over Europe, using a network ofpresently 22 lidar stations. The sites havebeen selected for good coverage of differ-ent environments in Europe, for existenceof experienced lidar groups, and foravailability of advanced lidar instrumen-tation providing quantitative measure-ments of aerosol optical parameters.By routine operation as well as dedicatedspecial studies, a data set is collectedthat begins to form, for the first time, acomprehensive climatology of the aerosoldistribution on a continental scale. These
data will be used to quantify radiativeproperties of the aerosol on a statisticalbase, including their impact on UV radia-tion. The data will provide the basis forvalidating and improving numerical mod-els describing the evolution of aerosolproperties and their impact on climate.They will also provide ground truth andauxiliary data for several satellite mis-sions, including future lidar missions inspace. The data will also be used to iden-tify main sources and sinks for aerosols,as well as transport paths including long-range transport.
Changes in Trace Gas Concentrations –The Chlorofluorocarbons (CFC’s)
The ”Ozone Hole“ over Antarctica –The vertical structure of the ”Ozone Hole“
E S T A B L I S H I N G A E U R O P E A N A E R O S O L R E S E A R C H L I D A R N E T W O R K ( E A R L I N E T )
CFC-12
PPT
PPT
Alti
tude
(km
)
CFC-11
CH3CCl3
CCl4
CFC-113
500
400
300
200
160
140
120
100
80
35
30
25
20
15
10
5
0
1978 1982 1986 1990 1994 1998
0 5 10 15 20Ozone Partial Pressure (mPa)
29 July 1998: 254 DU8 October 1997: 112 DU3 October 1998: 98 DU
October Average 1967–1971: 282 DU
>> I N H A L T
| 19
be developed and included in the Earth system model, with
special attention to biomass burning and natural biogenic
emissions.
Evaluation of these models will be performed primarily
through comparisons with observations from ground sta-
tions, aircraft measurements, and satellite data. Observa-
tions from different sources will be integrated to constrain
emissions and derive the global distribution and budgets of
key tropospheric compounds. Chemical transport models
will contribute significantly to the interpretation of mea-
surements made from space (e. g., ENVISAT) and during
large field campaigns by simulating as realistically as pos-
sible the evolution of the atmospheric composition during
specific episodes. A system aimed at predicting the global
“chemical weather” over a few days will be developed in
collaboration with meteorological services (including the
European Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasts
(ECMWF), Reading, UK). The Institute will play a pivotal role
in defining the observations and assimilation techniques to
be used in the forecast system.
4.2.4 Multicompartmental and Slowly DegradingOrganic SubstancesSubstances that are slowly degrading and that are bio-accu-
mulative constitute a major threat for human health and for
the ecosystems. Many of these migrate between different
compartments of the Earth system. In addition, there is also a
fundamental science motivation to study the environmental
fate of substances that cycle between the different media.
Detailed environmental exposure models of multi-compart-
mental organic substances will be developed, based on
global circulation models (atmosphere and ocean) existing at
MPI-M. These models are suitable to essentially contribute to
risk assessments. MPI-M aims for integrated studies, i.e., those
including exposure and ecotoxic and human health effects, in
cooperation with other institutions of the Centre for Marine
and Atmospheric Sciences (ZMAW), Hamburg, Germany.
4.2.5 Interactions of the Carbon Cycle and Biologi-cally Relevant Elements (e.g. Nitrogen and Sulphur)Physical processes in the Earth system are often affected by
biology. MPI-M will focus on several questions related to the
direct and indirect interactions of the climate-biosphere sys-
tem with specific attention on the cycling of carbon, nitrogen
and other elements that are strongly interdependent. Direct
effects include for example albedo (e.g. the solar penetration
into the ocean or solar absorption by vegetation), surface-
atmosphere coupling (via sensible and latent heat fluxes and
the hydrological budget over terrestrial vegetation). Indirect
effects are provided by modifications of the size of the carbon
pools, which are mirrored by the atmospheric CO2 content.
The determination of the geographical and temporal patterns
of carbon sources and sinks requires essentially the simul-
taneous treatment of the three subsystems (land, ocean,
atmosphere), and of the human modifications.
The release in the atmosphere of industri-ally manufactured halocarbons has led tothe formation of the springtime ozonehole over in the Antarctic. Since theatmospheric lifetime of these chlorine-containing organic compounds is of theorder of several decades to more than acentury, it is expected that the ozone holewill remain present in September-November until at least 2040 – 2050. At
that time, the level of reactive chlorineshould have decreased below the “pre-ozone hole” values. One major uncertaintyremains, however, in this prediction:what will be the effect of the expectedstratospheric cooling that should occurin response to increasing concentrationsof CO2 and other greenhouse gases?Lower temperatures in the lower strato-sphere may enhance the probability of
formation of polar stratospheric cloudsespecially in the northern hemisphere,and hence lead to more intense activa-tion of ozone-depleting anthropogenicchlorine. The development of coupledmodels accounting for stratosphericchemistry, microphysics, radiative trans-fer and atmospheric dynamics is a majorchallenge that will be addressed byMPI-M.
S T R A T O S P H E R I C O Z O N E R E C O V E R Y
MOZART 2 simulation of the forest fires in Sydney December 2001+(T85L47, ECMWF meteorology)
MOZART near surface CO enhancement 09 Jan 2002
Fires and smoke 01 Jan 2002 AVHRR image 09 Jan 2002
>> I N H A L T
20 |
The approach will involve primarily the development of elab-
orated models; these models will be used to identify key
atmosphere-biosphere processes in the ocean and on land
and to predict the future evolution of the system. Emphasis
will also be given to the interpretation of observational evi-
dence, specifically of satellite data. This will also require
the set-up of a small group to apply dynamic vegetation
models in close collaboration with the groups developing
these models (e.g. MPI for Biogeochemistry, Jena, Germany).
The final objective is to perform climate and Earth system
predictions through a model that includes a fully coupled
representation of biogeochemical cycles.
4.3. SIMULATING PAST, PRESENT AND FUTURE CLIMATE The Earth’s climate is currently operating in a non-analogue
state, and will probably continue to do so for many decades.
Thus, predictions of the future evolution of the climate
system cannot entirely rely on information from the past, but
must involve modelling. Creating virtual copies of the
climate system and exposing it to all kinds of imaginable
perturbations is an extremely challenging task since it must
be established that these virtual copies are realistic. Current
climate models capture a large number of physical features,
but still require a lot of improvements in their formulation,
specifically in the representation of unresolved processes.
Areas of uncertainties include the persistent errors in cloud
simulations, sea surface temperatures, in the formulation of
convective and boundary layer processes, in the formulation
of aerosol/cloud interactions, in the difficulties of initializ-
ing coupled models, etc. Better methodologies will have to
be defined to quantify uncertainties in climate predictions
and scenarios, probably through the exploration of ensem-
bles of climate simulations, and the identification of climate
regimes including fast non-linear transitions between them.
MPI-M will directly contribute to the scientific objectives of
the WCRP/CLIVAR Study, which attempts to understand how
the Earth’s climate system works, to document its variability,
to detect and attribute human influences and eventually to
determine to what extent climate is predictable.
4.3.1 Glacial-Interglacial TransitionsThe models, to be credible, should be able to reproduce
natural climate changes over geological timescales. These
changes are believed to have been triggered by changes in
The solar forcing is an external forcing tothe climate system. It has two sources ofvariability: one is associated with thechanges in Earth’s orbit and inclination ofthe Earth’s rotation axis. There is evidencethat this change together with non-linearfeedbacks within the climate system hasbeen triggering the transitions betweenglacials and interglacials.The second source of variability is linkedto the radiative emission by the sun,which shows a number of periodicities,
including the 11-year Schwalbe cycleand the 80-year Gleissberg cycle. Thesefluctuations can be found in historicalrecords, as they relate to sunspots, or canbe derived from proxy data like 10Be or14C isotopes. They influence directly theclimate system by additional heating/cooling. Furthermore they also alter thespectrum of the solar radiation. Duringperiods of high solar intensity, the UVincreases more than the average. Thesolar variability heats the higher level of
the atmosphere directly, because moreUV is absorbed by ozone and other com-pounds. The additional UV radiation fur-thermore generates more ozone by photo-chemical reactions. This increased ozoneconcentration leads to an even moreenhanced absorption of UV. As a conse-quence, the whole vertical stratificationof the atmosphere is modified, whichpotentially has a large impact on the gen-eral circulation, the climate system andthe predictability of weather.
S O L A R I M P A C T O N C L I M A T E
Estimates of the various components of theglobal carbon cycle. Units are Gt/y (1 Gt coversthe state of Hamburg with 0.5 m of coal). In thiscontext ocean-atmosphere interactions andocean processes are of crucial importance.
400 350 300 250 200 150 100 50 0Age (kyr BP)
280260240220200
ppm
v CO
2pp
bv C
H4
420
-2-4-6-8
infe
rred
tem
pera
ture
°C
700600500400
4 GLACIAL CYCLES RECORDED IN THE VOSTOK ICE CORE
J. R
. Pet
it et
al.,
Nat
ure,
399
, 429
-36,
199
9
>> I N H A L T
the solar energy input, but internal feedback processes have
probably played a major role in establishing the Earth’s
response. We therefore need to understand the dynamics of
the observed 100,000-year climate cycle, and assess to what
extent it is externally forced or based on internal dynamics.
As we address this issue, we will specifically investigate the
role of the interactions between the physical climate system
and the biogeochemical cycles, and we will try to establish
the causes of the observed changes in the atmospheric CO2
between glacial and inter-glacial periods. The factors that
control the variations in the Atlantic thermohaline circulation,
and the relevant feedback mechanisms have to be identified.
Long-term integrations to address this issue have to account
for the effect of melt-water input and insolation changes, as
well as the long-term changes in atmospheric CO2 levels.
Another objective will be to determine the role of the
ocean circulation in the observed rapid (decadal to
millennia) climate variations, and to determine why the
climate has been so comparatively stable in the last
10,000 years.
| 21
4.3.2 Decadal VariabilityOn shorter time scales the dynamics and predictability of phe-
nomena such as the observed multi-decadal variability in the
North Atlantic climate system need to be addressed. Success-
ful predictions of these variations will not only be of large
scientific interest. It is also of enormous interest to the public,
since the multi-decadal variations have large economical
impacts (e.g. on fishery, tourism, energy consumption).
Observational and modelling studies indicate that the ocean
plays a prominent role in driving these variations. In order
to successfully predict the multi-decadal variation it is of
crucial importance to estimate the ocean state, which
requires the combination of model and data through
advanced data assimilation techniques. We will use the
results of these ocean state estimation efforts to initialize
our coupled climate models.
4.3.3 Anthropogenic Climate ChangeThe evolution of future climate depends not only on internal
processes, but also on anthropogenic perturbations. Further
attempts to reproduce the climate of the 20th century will be
made, and predictions of the climate for the 21st century
will be performed on the basis of emission scenarios.
Sea surface temperature observationsin the tropical Pacific of the last 150years show a strengthening of the inter-annual variability. The record El Niñoevent of 1982/1983, for instance, wastopped by the most recent event in1997/1998. Furthermore, an increase ofthe El Niño frequency has been observed
during the most recent decades. Thisraises the question as to whether globalwarming affects the El Niño phenome-non. In order to study this question, a coupled ocean-atmosphere generalcirculation model was forced byincreasing concentrations of green-house gases. The results indicate that El
Niño-like conditions will become morefrequent in response to global warming.The level of interannual variability willalso increase. These changes in the El Niño statistics would have seriousconsequences for the climates andeconomies of many countries.
W I L L E L N I Ñ O B E C H A N G E D B Y G L O B A L W A R M I N G ?
30°N
15°N
0
15°S
30°S
30°N
15°N
0
15°S
30°S
-4.0
-3.0
-2.0
-1.0
0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
90°E 120 150 180 150 120 90 60°W
July 1997 observed
I S E L N I Ñ O P R E D I C T A B L E ?
Tem
pera
ture
ano
mal
y [°
C]
Cour
tesy
: M.L
atif
July 1997predictedJanuary 1997
>> I N H A L T
22 |
Special attention will be given to the evolution of natural
modes of variability, e.g. El Niño and the North Atlantic
oscillation. As in the case of glacial – interglacial transi-
tions, the issue of anthropogenic climate change requires
the joint consideration of the physical and biogeochemical
components of the Earths system and their interactions.
4 . 4 . R E G I O N A L C L I M A T EChanges in the hydrological cycle generated by climate
and land-use changes and by population and economic
changes have a direct impact on people. It is therefore
important to predict the potential magnitude of these
changes, using integrated approaches applied at the
regional scales. In particular, it is crucial to identify the
main mechanisms by which human activities are affecting
the global cycling of water and constituent transports by
the hydrological cycle.
Global climate models suggest that the hydrological cycle
will intensify as the surface becomes warmer. These models
predict an increase of mean precipitation, which may be
extremely different in different regions. Changes in the fre-
quency and intensity of extreme events, such as droughts
and floods, are expected. Up to now, it has not been possi-
ble to predict these changes with confidence. To a large
extent, this is related to the coarse resolution of the global
climate models. Hence, high-resolution regional models are
required to provide regional and local information. The MPI-M
fully coupled regional climate model system with a very high
horizontal resolution will be used to investigate the hydro-
logical cycles within drainage basins (e.g., Baltic Sea and
Mediterranean Sea) and provide climate change information
for regional impact assessment. In the coming years, inten-
sive efforts will be made within MPI-M towards the devel-
opment of a fully coupled climate/biogeochemical regional
model.
Future climate evolutions for Europe will be predicted for
specific emission scenarios, with the purpose of studying
the occurrence of extreme dry and wet periods, storms,
changes in vegetation periods, hot spells, flooding and many
questions related to changes in water availability, water
quality and water management for several river basins. To
address the impact of climate change on regional climate,
the complex feedback mechanisms between the biogeo-
chemical and physical systems will have to be considered.
4 . 5 . I N T E G R A T I N G K N O W L E D G E I N T O AC O M P R E H E N S I V E E A R T H S Y S T E M M O D E LOne of the challenges for the Max Planck Institute for Meteo-
rology for the coming years will be to integrate different
component models into a comprehensive Earth System Model.
This requires the involvement of interdisciplinary teams
including atmospheric physicists and chemists, oceanogra-
phers, ecosystem specialists, social scientists, economists,
mathematicians, and computer scientists. The role and
C O 2 A N D C H 4 C O N C E N T R A T I O N S –P A S T , P R E S E N T A N D F U T U R E
1100
3700
Vostok Ice Core
ppbv
CH
4
400 350 300 250 200 150 100 50 0kyr BP
Today
IPCC 2000Scenarios
for 2100 AD
1600
1200
800
400
* *
450
360
300240180
The Global Energy and Water Cycle Exper-iment (GEWEX), a major project of theWorld Climate Research Programme(WCRP), conducts so-called ContinentalScale Experiments (CSEs) in which boththe variability of the water and energycycle of major river basins should bedetermined as well as the contribution ofsoil moisture to improved forecasting ofcirculation anomalies going beyond thetimescale of deterministic weather fore-casting. One of these CSEs is BALTEX, the
Baltic Sea Experiment, embracing theentire Baltic Sea (sea, atmosphere, land,rivers) catchment. Regional coupled mod-elling with REMO at the Max Planck Insti-tute has led to the first consistent waterbudgets for this area (2.1 Million km 2) andpotential changes due to climate changes. In today’s climate, the influx via the atmosphere amounts to 612 km 3 and isnearly balanced – as it should be in thelong-term – by the export through the Kattegat. This export exceeds by roughly
100 km 3 the river run-off; in other wordsthe Baltic Sea has a positive net fresh-water flux (higher precipitation than evapo-ration). The main difference between anIPCC-SRES B2 scenario and present climateis an increase in precipitation and evapo-ration over land. For certain sub-basins,the changes are often strongly different,showing the potentially massive nearfuture impact of climate change on thewater budget of sub-basins of the BalticSea catchment.
T H E B A L T I C S E A E X P E R I M E N T B A L T E X
ppm
v CO
2
>> I N H A L T
importance of software engineers has been increasing in the
last years since the coding of the models is becoming
considerably more complex and must be adapted to the new
architectures of the most recent computers. MPI-M will
reinforce the presence of software engineers and algorithm
specialists. Cooperation with “Deutsches Klimarechenzen-
trum” (DKRZ), Hamburg, Germany and the Group on Model
and Data (M&D), and university groups will be essential.
MPI-M will adapt its current models and develop its future
codes to be compatible with the specifications adopted by
the European PRISM project. Interfaces will be included in
MPI-M models so that these can be easily linked to the Euro-
pean drivers or couplers, and hence potentially interact with
model components developed in other European institutions.
| 23
The strategy of MPI-M is to develop its future Earth system
models in cooperation with German, and more generally
with European partners and, when completed, to share the
models and model components with the scientific communi-
ty. A large effort is already in place with the Max Planck
Institute for Biogeochemistry in Jena, Germany, to include a
detailed land surface model in the integrated model. A sim-
ilar effort has been initiated with the Max Planck Institute
for Chemistry in Mainz to include atmospheric chemical
processes in the ECHAM-5 model. More generally, MPI-M
will coordinate the efforts of the national and international
research community towards the development of a compre-
hensive Earth System Model with global and regional capa-
bilities. The integration of the model system will be accom-
plished in Hamburg.
A specific effort will also be conducted to redesign the
dynamical core of the future atmospheric and oceanic com-
T H E D E V E L O P M E N T O F C L I M A T E M O D E L S – P A S T , P R E S E N T A N D F U T U R E
The development of climatemodels over the last 25 yearsshowing how the differentcomponents are firstdeveloped separately andlater coupled intocomprehensive climate models(IPCC WG1, 2001)
Atmosphere
Mid-1970s Mid-1980s Early 1990s Late 1990s Present day Early 2000s?
Ocean & Sea Icemodel
Atmosphere Atmosphere Atmosphere Atmosphere Atmosphere
Land surface
Sulphate aerosolmodel
Land carbon cycle model
Ocean carbon cycle model
Atmosphericchemistry
Land surface Land surface Land surface Land surface
Ocean & Sea Ice
Non-sulphateaerosol
Carbon cycle model
Dynamicvegetation
Atmosphericchemistry
Ocean & Sea Ice Ocean & Sea Ice Ocean & Sea Ice
Sulphate aerosol
Dynamicvegetation
Atmosphericchemistry
Sulphate aerosol Sulphate aerosol
Non-sulphateaerosol
Non-sulphateaerosol
Carbon cycle Carbon cycle
Dynamicvegetation
Atmosphericchemistry
The climate in northern and westernEurope is strongly influenced by theAtlantic Ocean. The North Atlantic cur-rent transports warm and salty waterfrom the subtropical Atlantic to the westcoast of Europe and thus – together withthe prevailing westerly winds – is respon-sible for the relative mild winters ofEurope. This northward ocean heat trans-port is connected with the Atlantic over-turning circulation, which is driven bythe formation and subsequent southwardspreading of dense North Atlantic deepwater in the Greenland and the LabradorSeas. There are many indications thatthis so-called thermohaline circulationhas undergone strong changes in thepast.
The response of the Atlantic thermo-haline circulation is one of the majoruncertainties in anthropogenic climatechange. Various models simulate quitedifferent responses ranging from nochange at all to a strong reduction withinthe next 100 years. Due to the potentiallylarge effects of changes in ocean heattransport this is a key issue in predictinganthropogenic climate change for Europe.MPI-M collaborates closely with a groupat the Southampton Oceanography Centre(SOC) that is mounting an effort to monitorthe Atlantic thermohaline circulation at26°N.Current global climate models cannotresolve the small-scale processes respon-sible for the formation of North Atlantic
deep water. Only regional coupled atmos-phere-ocean-sea ice models are able toresolve these processes and thus simulatechanges in deep water formation reliably. Expected regional changes for means andextremes can only be simulated withmodels using very high horizontal resolu-tion. Currently a fully coupled regionalmodel system with about 18 km horizontalresolution for the Baltic Sea drainagebasin is under development at MPI-M.This system will be transferable to otherregions of the globe and can be used tosimulate ensembles of possible regionalclimate changes. Together with sophisti-cated estimates of the uncertainty range,a large set of reliable input for impactstudies can be delivered.
F U T U R E C L I M A T E O F E U R O P E
>> I N H A L T
24 |
ponent model with the involvement of the German Weather
Service (DWD, Offenbach, Germany) and perhaps other
groups. The purpose is to develop a global non-hydrostatic
model, using conservative forms of governing equations per-
haps solved on an icosahedral grid. The Earth system model
will have regional capabilities.
Although the ultimate Earth System Model will not be com-
pletely assembled within the next few years, the Institute
will start considering some integrative issues through some
pilot projects. These are summarized as follows:
Reconstruction of Past Evolutions
• Reconstruction of the past 100 years, using the coupled
MA/ECHAM-5/OM with coupled chemistry (stratospheric/
tropospheric ozone) and biogeochemistry (carbon/sulphur
cycles).
• Reconstruction of the last 100,000 years using ECHAM
(T21) coupled to LSG (ocean), LPJ (vegetation), an ice
sheet model and including a representation of the carbon
cycle. Simulation of a glacial cycle with zoom (in time) on
some episodes.
• Reconstruction of the European regional climate with
REMO, using results from Project no 1 and existing data
(North Atlantic and Arctic), and performance of ensemble
integrations over the last 100 years.
• Reconstruction of the global tropospheric chemical com-
position over the past 40 years, using existing data
together with a chemistry transport model, in order to
quantify and understand trends and variability for important
pollutants and greenhouse gases.
Integrative Questions
• What is the impact of climate change (greenhouse
warming) and variability (such as El Niño) including
related variability in biomass burning on the chemical
composition of the atmosphere?
• Will stratospheric cooling (resulting from greenhouse gas
emissions) delay stratospheric ozone recovery?
• What are the causes of the substantial cooling observed
in the mesosphere ?
• Could the terrestrial biosphere (currently a sink for CO2)
become a source of CO2 under a future (warmer) climate?
• Can we assess the indirect effect(s) of aerosols on climate
from satellite observations?
• What is the climate sensitivity to volcanic eruptions and
how did volcanic eruptions change climate?
• Will anthropogenic CO2 emissions force the Earth’s climate
across a bifurcation point?
The planned Integrated MPI-M Atmos-phere Study over Europe (IMASE) willdocument the detailed behaviour of theatmosphere over northern central Europefor a time period of about three monthswith all tools available. The goal of thisactivity is to integrate observation andmodelling capacities at the MPI-M inorder to:· Observe, model and understand the
spatial and temporal development ofthe atmospheric state on all scales dur-
ing such a time period, especially withrespect to atmospheric water and tracegases;
· Observe, model and understand individ-ual atmospheric events and climateprocesses that occur during this interval;
· Observe, model and understand the“chemical weather” during the select-ed period;
· Exploit available satellite data, espe-cially those of ENVISAT, as far as possi-ble for this intensive observation period;
· Demonstrate the complementarity ofthe available tools and resources at the MPI-M for the study of climateprocesses;
· Find and remove the inconsistenciesand deficits in our present ability to do closely co-ordinated research.
The IMASE Project will concentrate onan area of 1000x1000 km2 around Ham-burg, and will extend from the surface tothe stratopause.
I N T E G R A T E D M P I - M A T M O S P H E R E S T U D Y O V E R E U R O P E ( I M A S E ) :
Sydney Fire, 1 Jan 2002:CO Anomaly, coloured by Ozone Anomaly
MPI-M has recognized the need
to broaden its research objec-
tives and include issues involv-
ing biogeochemical cycles and
their interactions with other
aspects of the Earth system.
>> I N H A L T
>> I N H A L T
26 |
The land surface model to be coupled to ECHAM to describe
the biophysical interactions between land and atmosphere
is the JSBACH model, which is currently being developed
by the Max Planck Institute for Biogeochemistry in Jena,
Germany. This model includes sub-modules, which describe
different aspects of land processes including soil moisture,
dynamic vegetation and the terrestrial carbon cycle.
Chemical transformations and transport of a variety of chem-
ical species in the atmosphere can be simulated, using a
global chemical model called MOZART. This model, first
developed at the National Center for Atmospheric Research
versions of ECHAM that are specifically designed to study
middle atmosphere processes up to 80 km altitude and
upper atmosphere processes up to 250 km. In each case,
additional physical processes have been included to
represent the specific mechanisms of these regions of the
atmosphere. With the availability of more efficient super-
computing capability, atmospheric models will evolve
dramatically in the next 10 years: The next generation
atmospheric model at MPI-M will be based on a global
high-resolution, non-hydrostatic model with a new dynamical
core, new formulations of physical and chemical processes,
and a regional capability.
Progress in weather forecast has been closely linked to the
development of computing technology. The first successful
numerical prediction in the early 1950’s resulted from the
collaboration between two exceptional figures: John von
Neumann, a world-class mathematician who designed one of
the first electronic computers, and Jule Charney, a brilliant
theoretical meteorologist. By making the dream of the pioneers
in numerical weather prediction become reality, these two
personalities opened a new era for operational meteorology.
And, although few realized it at the time, they also opened
the way to a revolution in the study of climate change.
5 . 1 M P I - M M O D E L SMPI-M has developed a suite of tools to address different
questions related to the Earth system. The coupled
ECHAM-5/OM atmosphere-ocean model is the most
recent version of the Hamburg global climate modelling
system. This model simulates the unperturbed climate over
hundreds of years with no long-term drift and without
having to artificially specify a flux correction between the
ocean and the atmosphere. MPI-M is developing particular
5 . T O O L S A N D F A C I L I T I E S
Model T21horizontal resolution: ca. 500 km
Model T42horizontal resolution: ca. 250 km
Model T63horizontal resolution: ca. 180 km
Model T106horizontal resolution: ca. 110 km
The Model and Data (M&D) Group, cur-rently supported by Bundesministerium forResearch and Technology (BMBF), admin-istered by MPI-M, develops and maintainsan infrastructure that allows carrying outefficient modelling for climate research.For this purpose suitable numerical mod-els are made available, are maintained
and are applied. These community modelsare selected by a national steering com-mittee (Wissenschaftlicher Lenkungsaus-schuss), which includes representativesof the German scientific community.Relevant initial, boundary and diagnosticdatasets are provided. Scientists aretrained in the application of the models,
the extraction of data and in the interpre-tation of the results. Numerical experi-ments, which are of general interest forthe climate research community, andmodel runs for international assessments,are carried out. Their data are archivedon a long-term basis, and are distributedto interested research organizations.
T H E M O D E L A N D D A T A G R O U P – A N A T I O N A L F A C I L I T Y
>> I N H A L T
| 27
(Boulder, Colorado, USA), accounts for surface emissions,
advective and convective transport, photochemistry, as well
as surface dry deposition and wet scavenging. Biogeochem-
istry in the ocean is treated by the HAMOCC model, which
includes a representation of the oceanic carbon and sulphur
cycles. One of the tasks to be performed is to couple these
biogeochemical models with the physical climate models.
The Hamburg Aerosol Model (HAM) is fully coupled to the
ECHAM Global Circulation Model and can simulate size
resolved aerosol distributions. It consists of a range of sub-
modules for aerosol sources and sinks, chemistry and the
aerosol microphysical model M7. M7 was developed at the
Joint Research Centre of the European Commission in Ispra
(Italy). The aerosol model is coupled to the radiation and
cloud schemes of ECHAM. This makes it possible to scruti-
nize the effects of aerosols on the global radiation balance.
The regional atmospheric model used at MPI-M is the REMO
model. This model will be used to investigate regional
climate change signals on horizontal resolutions of typically
10 –15 km. It is coupled to several hydrological modules,
regional ocean models, and is imbedded in the Hamburg
global climate modelling system. REMO is designed to
calculate atmospheric composition on-line, and is the main
MPI-M tool to contribute to regional impact studies.
5 . 2 S C I E N T I F I C C O M P U T I N G Most of the computing needed to integrate MPI-M models
will be performed on the “Deutsches Klimarechenzentrum”
(DKRZ), Hamburg, Germany, facility. In March 2002 DKRZ
acquired a NEC SX-6 supercomputer, which was upgraded
several times to reach a peak performance of 1.5 Tflops, and
more importantly of about 0.5 Tflops sustained for well pro-
grammed applications. This machine together with the mass
storage system is one of the most powerful computing facil-
ities in the world, and one of the largest resources dedicated
to Earth system research. About 25 percent of the DKRZ
supercomputer is available to the institutes of the German
Max Planck Society for the Advancement of Science. 25 addi-
tional percent are provided to other shareholders of DKRZ,
and the remaining 50 percent are reserved in support of exter-
nal scientific projects, including those supported by BMBF.
As climate models became more complex in the last
decades, requiring high spatial and temporal resolution, and
accounting for an increasing number of processes, it soon
became evident that progress in climate modelling would be
limited by progress in computing technology and by the
availability of powerful supercomputers. This is today even
more obvious as the community understands the need for
longer integrations using ensembles of model conditions and
configurations, the use of enhanced spatial and temporal
resolution, and the desire to include more detailed processes.
For example, it has been estimated that to run an ensemble
of 10 coupled climate models for a period of 100 years with
the technology of the late 1990s, the time required would
reach typically 60 years (20 years without chemistry) under
the following desirable conditions: Atmosphere: 50 km reso-
lution, 70 levels, 50 chemical species, timestep = 5 min;
Ocean: 0.1 degrees resolution, 50 levels, timestep = 20 min.
A factor 100 increase in computing capability is therefore
urgently needed if current scientific needs have to be ful-
filled. Such increase is key for maintaining the influence of
NEC SX-6 supercomputer at Deutsches Klimarechenzentrum (DKRZ)
E A R T H S Y S T E M M O D E L
Atmospheric Chemistry
Aerosols
TroposphericAerosols
StratosphericAerosols
Atmospheric Physics
TerrestrialBiosphere
Land Surface
Photosynthesis
VegetationDynamics
Ocean/Sea IcePhysics
Marine Biogeochemistry
>> I N H A L T
European efforts in future international climate assessments
(e.g., IPCC). It is unlikely, however, that such request will be
met by national governments; such a project will have to be
carried out at the European level with national participation,
and a European networking of climate centres around a large
European facility will have to be simultaneously developed.
As a first step into this direction and under the sponsorship
of the European Commission, the Max Planck Institute will
play a leadership role in the development of an infrastruc-
ture for coordinating and executing a long-term programme
of European-wide multi-institutional climate and Earth system
simulations, and specifically in the development of a system
of portable, efficient and user-friendly climate models with
associated diagnostic and visualization software under
standardized coding conventions, that can be accessed by
the entire scientific community. MPI will also play a leading
28 |
role in the European Network for Earth System Modelling
(ENES), which regroups major partners involved in climate
and Earth system modelling (academics, meteorological
services, research centres and industry from approximately
20 countries).
5 . 3 . R E M O T E S E N S I N G I N S T R U M E N T A T I O NIn order to understand and model the climate system ade-
quately and to validate the models and model predictions,
reliable and relevant observational data are extremely
important. Therefore advanced remote sensing instruments
are used in addition to the well-established in situ sensors.
These satellite or surface-based techniques use spectra of
solar and/or thermal radiation as well as backscattered
radiation from Radar or Lidar sources to retrieve properties
of climatologically relevant quantities. Most of these mea-
surement systems and principles contain still considerable
potential (and in parts necessity) for further improvement.
The development of advanced remote sensing instruments
requires close cooperation between scientists having a
detailed knowledge of the methodology, scientists working
in the area of application of the measurement results, engi-
neers who design instruments that are suited for the tasks,
and technicians who can operate the instruments under
field experimental conditions.
To support the production of parts and the integration of
measurement systems in house, a fairly well equipped
mechanical workshop is available. This workshop allows for
advanced work on various materials, especially on metal,
wood and plastics to produce, replace or repair original parts
for our remote sensing instrumentation. The workshop also
integrates these instruments into complete measurement
systems and into containers for local or mobile operation.
OASIS: Ocean Atmosphere Sounding Interferometer Systemthat yields well calibrated moderate resolution sky spectrafor the retrieval of various atmospheric components (profiles,column content).
LIDAR: The reflected signal of the radiation source in activeremote sensing provides good range resolution for parameterretrieval (ozone, water vapour, aerosols, etc.).
RADAR/RASS: The combined application with LIDAR resultsin the estimation of flux profiles for ozone and watervapour.
SODAR: A new multi-frequency mini-sodar system thatallows simultaneous observations of various important quan-tities in the lowest few hundred meters of the atmosphere.This system can be applied to the estimation of vertical windand turbulence profiles, and it will separate snow, graupeland hail from normal rain and estimate precipitation particlesize distributions (under development).
O B S E R V I N G S Y S T E M S A T M P I - M
Shareholders MPI-M
DKRZ
Working Groups on Earth System Modelling
M & D
Consultance
WLAService Service
Cooperation
Requirements
>> I N H A L T
| 29
5 . 4 C L I M A T E S E R V I C E C E N T R EThe World Climate Research Programme (WCRP) is developing
a large project focusing on climate prediction and climate pre-
dictability over seasonal to decadal time scales. The direction
in the next years will undoubtedly go towards the development
of a semi-operational Climate Service Centre. Such a compe-
tence Centre is proposed to be constituted in Hamburg to take
advantage of the high-level infrastructure and research insti-
tutions concentrated in the region. It will regroup the current
DKRZ as well as the Model and Data Group, currently support-
ed by BMBF and administered by MPI-M.
The Climate Service Centre will focus on the more applied
aspects of climate research, provide user-driven and user-
evaluated products, and help the research centres to com-
municate with socio-economic partners, and with the
scientific community. The Centre, which will be product-
oriented, will be designed to achieve societal goals (pro-
tecting life and property, sustaining economic growth, etc.)
and to provide service to the scientific community. It will
probably be developed in the European context, operate in
close partnership with national and European weather ser-
vices (e.g., DWD, ECMWF) and be managed by a consor-
tium of public and private institutions (research centres,
government, industry). It will include several functions:
• A Climate Prediction Service: The Centre will provide
multi-model ensemble operational climate forecasts on
different time-scales (e.g., seasonal to decadal), or make
long-term estimates of vulnerability and risks regarding
climate changes in specific regions. Jointly with existing
research centres it would also perform specific studies
in response to requests from industry or from the feder-
al, regional and local governments.
This information should help society to make appropriate
management and policy decisions. Research strategies
will be developed to test and improve these predictions.
• A Data Service: The Centre will maintain a database
including observational data (space-based, ground-
based, in situ from the world-wide climate observing
system) and model results of interest for societal appli-
cations, including those provided by the Climate Predic-
tion Service. Data stewardship will receive high priority.
Data will be used through an assimilation procedure to
initialize the regular climate predictions.
• A Modelling Service: The Centre will maintain, docu-
ment, and evaluate state-of-the-art Earth system and cli-
mate models as well as diagnostic and visualization tools,
and make those available to the scientific community.
• A Supercomputing Service: The Centre will provide
high-level hardware to execute complex Earth system
models and analyze the model results. It will also pro-
vide easy access to a European supercomputing facility,
if this facility is made available, and will provide assis-
tance to the users of the facility in order to help them
optimize their codes.
5 . 5 I N F O R M A T I O N T E C H N O L O G Y ( I T )As the scientific computing facility with its supercomputer
and data storage system develops outside MPI-M, the Insti-
tute will develop its internal IT facility in cooperation with
the University of Hamburg (ZMAW), with appropriate servers
and workstations, desktops and laptops, storage media,
email system as well as a rapid digital network. It will be the
responsibility of the IT group within ZMAW to provide staff
and visitors with the most efficient computing environment.
A modern and user-friendly website (internet and intranet)
will also be maintained and frequently updated.
Volcano eruption timesteps
(Source: Grafic DKRZ)
One of the challenges for
the Max Planck Institute for
Meteorology for the coming
years will be to integrate dif-
ferent component models into
a comprehensive Earth System
Model.
>> I N H A L T
>> I N H A L T
| 31
Interdisciplinary research cannot be done in isolation. Team
work is fundamental to develop complex models of the Earth
system, and to evaluate these models with reference to
observations. The different MPI-M divisions therefore work
together towards the general goals of the Institute. Further-
more, close external collaborations are being developed to
put the MPI-M activities into a broader European framework.
The MPI-Ms strategy recognizes the need for different
research institutions involved in global environmental prob-
lems to develop joint projects. This is the case with the Max
Planck Institutes for Meteorology (Hamburg), Biogeochem-
istry (Jena) and Chemistry (Mainz) in Germany. Close coop-
eration has also been established with the Potsdam Institute
for Climate Impact Research (PIK), Potsdam, Germany; the
Director of this Institute is an external Member of the Max
Planck Institute in Hamburg. Another promising endeavour is
the joint project with IPSL in France to develop the next
generation of Earth System Model. Other groups including
the National Institute for Geophysics in Bologna, Italy, the
University of Reading, UK, and the German Meteorological
Service (DWD) in Offenbach are expected to join this enter-
prise. Strong links also exist to ECMWF and will be further
enhanced in the future, especially regarding the develop-
ment of a planned environmental monitoring and prediction
system.
Many other collaborative projects already exist involving
MPI-M and other German or foreign laboratories, and will be
further developed in the future. These will not be listed
here, but include joint activities sponsored by the German
BMBF and by the European Commission. Prominent among
our collaborations is the project carried out jointly by DWD
and MPI-M to develop a new dynamical core for the next
generation global atmospheric model.
MPI-M will further work within the research frameworks
defined by the European Commission, and contribute to
EC-sponsored projects. Specifically, it will propose to partici-
pate in Networks of Excellence and Integrated Projects,
established by the EC within the Sixth Framework Programme.
The Max Planck Institute has developed many modelling
tools that are made available to the scientific community
through the Model and Data Group. The philosophy of MPI-M
is to contribute to enhance the community spirit in Germany
and, when possible, in Europe.
6 . C O O P E R AT I O N
Progress in geosciences stems mainlyfrom new observations that lead to betterunderstanding of processes, thus to newparameterizations for subgrid scaleprocesses in models, but also model val-idation data sets and better startingfields for models through data assimila-tion. The co-operation between all threeMPI-M departments for all four data usesis at present far from being fully devel-oped. Our definite goal is to achieve sucha strengthened co-operation going wellbeyond the existing joint activities.
The rather small experimental group candeliver the following in the near future:1. HOAPS II (improved global Hamburg
Ocean and Atmosphere Parameters fromSatellite climatology of surface ener-gy and net freshwater fluxes startingin 1987).
2. European-wide vertical aerosol profilesfrom EUs Lidar profiler network sup-ported in the 5th Framework ResearchProgramme and co-ordinated by us.
3. Cloud microphysics in a vertical col-umn from a new 35 GHz Doppler radar.
4. Temperature and humidity profiles inthe lower troposphere as well asrough ozone profiles, trace gas columncontents and thermal emission byaerosols.
5. Global cloud albedo changes due toaerosol changes derived from the AVHRRpathfinder data set over continents.
6. Parameterizations for a cloud toppedboundary layer including cloud chem-istry that originate from a large eddysimulation model tested by data frominternational measurement campaigns.
7. Areal precipitation over land and seafrom a combination of Doppler rainradars, weather radars, Doppler-sodar,ship rain gauges, disdrometers andconventional precipitation measure-ments.
While a recent version of data mentionedunder (1) is already used for validation ofglobal circulation models (AGCMs,
OGCMs and AOGCMs) in several coun-tries and could also be useful for region-al models with an ocean part, those frompoint (2) are an ideal first aerosol profiledata set for global, regional and LESmodel testing. Data from point (3) can beused to improve the LES model in order toderive new (cloud) parameterizations forglobal and regional AGCMs.
With the parameters derived from inter-ferograms (point (4)) the boundary layerschemes of mesoscale atmospheric cir-culation models or LES models will bevalidated, while recent cloud albedochanges over all continents (point (5))constitute a data set for aerosol-cloudinteraction schemes in global (AGCMs)or regional circulations models. Parame-terization development by the LES modelfor ECHAM5 is already pursued. An arealprecipitation data set for Northern Ger-many and the Western Baltic Sea will beavailable for model testing and precipita-tion assimilation attempts.
C O - O P E R A T I O N A M O N G M O D E L L E R S A N D E X P E R I M E N T A L G R O U P S W I T H I N M P I - M
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32 |
The Max Planck Institute for Meteorology works closely
with the University of Hamburg through the joint Centre
for Marine and Atmospheric Sciences (ZMAW). It hosts
typically 20 PhD and Master students each year, who par-
ticipate directly in MPI-Ms research. Since 2002, support
has been provided by the ZEIT Foundation in Hamburg and
the Max Planck Society for an International Max Planck
Research School (IMPRS) on Earth System Modelling.
7.1. INTERNATIONAL MAX PLANCK RESEARCHSCHOOL (IMPRS)The IMPRS on Earth System Modelling provides an inte-
grative, interdisciplinary framework of PhD education.
Within the IMPRS students from all over the world (at
least 50% from outside Germany) and from various disci-
plines will complete their PhD theses in the field of Earth
System Science – focusing on numerical modelling, but
not exclusively so. It has been established through MPI-M
and the German participating institutes (University of
Hamburg, Centre of Marine and Atmospheric Sciences
(ZMAW, Hamburg), Institute of Coastal Research in
Geesthacht, Hamburg Institute of International Economics
(HWWA), Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research
(PIK), University of Kassel and is jointly funded by the Max
Planck Society and the ZEIT Foundation in Hamburg. The
strength and the exclusiveness of the IMPRS consists of
(1) its interdisciplinarity, (2) its combination of research
with topical lectures and seminars (in English), and (3) its
international orientation.
The students will be based both at different faculties of
university institutes and the MPI-M. Within the IMPRS PhD
research will be combined with courses (lectures, seminars
and summer schools) on fundamental and specific aspects
of the Earth system: The students will have to collect a cer-
tain number of credit points before submitting their theses.
The lectures will specifically account for the multidiscipli-
nary background of the students. Possibilities for exchanges
of students with partner research institutes outside Ger-
many will be offered. Ties will be particularly strengthened
with institutes in the developing world by inviting students
and young scientists to Hamburg.
Ideally the School will contribute to the education and the
establishment of a generation of experts whose awareness
of Global Change extends beyond the traditional boundaries
of university education, contributing to state-of-the-art
research and policy making in Germany and abroad.
7.2. OUTREACH TO THE PUBLICMPI-M will continue to strengthen its effort to inform deci-
sion-makers and the public on questions related to Climate
Change and Global Change. These issues have received
much attention in the recent past in relation to the negotia-
tion of international protocols for the protection of the
global environment. Many scientific aspects underlying the
current discussions are still poorly known by the public, and
MPI-M will clarify some of the scientific questions through
an informative web-site, the organization of exhibitions, the
production of brochures and films. A small group focusing
on public relation issues has been established, and will
develop new education and outreach activities.
7 . E D U C AT I O N A N D O U T R E A C H
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The Max Planck Institute for Meteorology is organized around
3 Departments focusing on (1) Climate Processes (2) The
Atmosphere in the Earth System, and (3) The Ocean in the
Earth System. Other groups supporting MPI-M’s research
activities are: (1) the Central Integration and Coupling Group,
that also serves the national and European Scientific Commu-
nity, (2) the Service Group, which supports the activities re-
lated to information technology, public relations, library and
workshop, (3) the Administration, and (4) the Model and Data
Group. This latter group is administered by MPI-M, but pro-
vides climate-related data and models to the German Scien-
tific Community. The Institutes management is under the
responsibility of the MPI-M Directors, and specifically the
Managing Director (which rotates among the Directors every
2 years). The Directors are advised by a Management Com-
mittee, and a Planning and Strategy Office. They interact
closely with the Staff Association, regularly elected by the
MPI-M staff.
The successful implementation of our long-term plans depends
strongly on the quality, professionalism and dedication of
the people conducting MPI-Ms research. With approximately
150 members (scientists, software engineers, technicians,
administrators, post-docs, Ph.D. students, etc.), MPI-M is in
an excellent position to develop a broad research programme.
An important commitment of MPI-M is to diversify its staff, to
mentor junior collaborators, and specifically students, and
to increase the representation of women at all levels. The
participation in the research activities of staff members who
are raising children will be facilitated by providing, when
possible, flexible working conditions, and improving access
to child care and other social services. The Institute intends to
play an international role, and hence to facilitate the presence
of staff and visitors from abroad.
Funding of the fundamental research programmes conducted
at MPI-M is mainly provided by the German Max Planck
Society for the Advancement of Science. This support is
augmented by funding from national and international
sources (e.g., BMBF and the European Commission, respec-
tively). In order to maintain the coherence of the MPI-M
programme, project money is sought only if it reinforces
established research objectives. At the present time,
approximately three quarters of the scientific staff is sup-
ported on “soft money”. The nature of the research and
development conducted at MPI-M requires, however, that
long-term commitments be made to staff, and a stabiliza-
tion of certain positions (e.g., software engineers who are
responsible for model development and maintenance) is a
key challenge for the institute. As the importance of
algorithm design and, more generally, the role of software
engineering are becoming more prominent in model
development, MPI-M will have to reinforce the presence of
computer scientists and engineers among its staff. Struc-
tural changes in the models requires time and effort that
must be fully recognized, and some free room must be
preserved for scientific programmers/scientists for working
on pure software design issues without the pressure of
time-limited projects.
As a new building will be made available to MPI-M in
2004, the research infrastructure of the Institute will have
to be upgraded. As the roles of DKRZ and M&D have
recently been revised, MPI-M will have to reinforce its own
infrastructure for model development, and unify tools and
approaches regarding model evaluation and data analysis/
visualization.
Finally, an optimal balance between goal-oriented and
more innovative/risky activities will have to be maintained.
Partnership between public research and the private sector
is desirable for issues of societal importance such as climate
change. MPI-M will work towards such partnership, for
example through the Global Change Forum, and try to
establish projects involving the participation of industry
and other socio-economic actors.
8 . O R G A N I Z AT I O N , M A N A G E M E N T A N D F U N D I N G
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34 |
Max Planck Society for the Advancement of Science,Munich, Germany and its Institutes in Germany
The MPI-M is one of 80 institutes of the Max Planck Society
for the Advancement of Science (MPG), Munich, Germany.
The MPG is an independent, non-profit research organisa-
tion that primarily promotes and supports research at its
own institutes. The research institutes of the Max Planck
Society perform fundamental research in the interest of the
general public in the natural sciences, life sciences, social
sciences, and the humanities. In particular, the Max Planck
Society takes up new and innovative research areas that
German universities are not in a position to accommodate or
deal with adequately. For more information visit the web site
at www.mpg.de.
A N N E X
Magdeburg
Halle Leipzig
Golm
Garching
Munich
MartinsriedAndechs
Radolfzell
Tübingen
Rostock
Münster
Dortmund
Schlitz
Göttingen
JenaMarburg
FrankfurtBad Nauheim
Ladenburg
Heidelberg
Stuttgart
Freiburg
Saar-brücken
Mainz
Bonn
CologneDüsseldorf
Mülheim
Bad Münstereifel
Plön
Greifswald
Katlenburg-Lindau
Hanover
Saxony-Anhalt
Saxony
ThuringiaHesse
Bavaria
Baden-Württemberg
Saarland
Rhineland-Palatinate
North Rhine-WestphaliaBrandenburg
Lower Saxony
BremenHamburg
Berlin
Schleswig-Holstein
Mecklenburg-Western Pommerania
Dresden
The strategy of Max Planck
Institute for Meteorology is to
develop its future Earth system
models in cooperation with
German, and more generally
with European partners and,
when completed, to share the
models and model components
with the scientific community.
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A d d r e s s M a x P l a n c k I n s t i t u t e f o r M e t e o r o l o g y
B u n d e s s t r. 5 5
D - 2 0 14 6 H a m b u r g
G e r m a n y
P h o n e + 4 9 ( 0 ) 4 0 / 4 117 3 - 0
F a x + 4 9 ( 0 ) 4 0 / 4 117 3 - 2 9 8
w w w. m p i m e t . m p g . d e
E d i t o r s P r o f . D r. G u y B r a s s e u r
P r o f . D r. H a r t m u t G r a ß l
P r o f . D r. J o c h e m M a r o t z k e
D e s i g n H A A K & N A K AT, M u n i c h
[ w w w. h a a k - n a k a t . d e ]
D e c e m b e r 2 0 0 3
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