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NO EXPONENTIAL IS FOREVER . . .NO EXPONENTIAL IS FOREVER . . .
Gordon E. MooreGordon E. Moore
300mm Wafer300mm Wafer
1965 Transistor Projection1965 Transistor Projection
Integrated Circuit ComplexityIntegrated Circuit ComplexityTransistorsTransistors
Per DiePer Die
Source: Intel Source: Intel
1965 Actual Data1965 Actual Data
19601960 19651965 19701970 19751975 19801980 19851985 19901990 19951995 20002000 20052005 20102010
1010
109 MOS Arrays MOS Logic 1975 Actual DataMOS Arrays MOS Logic 1975 Actual Data108
107
106
103
100
105
104
102
101
Integrated Circuit ComplexityIntegrated Circuit Complexity
MOS Arrays MOS Logic 1975 Actual DataMOS Arrays MOS Logic 1975 Actual Data
103
100
1010
TransistorsTransistorsPer DiePer Die
1965 Actual Data1965 Actual Data109
1975 Projection1975 Projection108
107
106
105
104
102
101
Source: Intel Source: Intel
19601960 19651965 19701970 19751975 19801980 19851985 19901990 19951995 20002000 20052005 20102010
Integrated Circuit ComplexityIntegrated Circuit Complexity
1K1K4K4K
64K64K256K256K
1M1M
16M16M4M4M
64M64M
4004400480808080
808680868028680286 i386™i386™
i486™i486™PentiumPentium®®PentiumPentium®® IIII
PentiumPentium®® IIIIII
256M256M 512M512M
PentiumPentium®® 4ItaniumItanium™™
1G1G 2G2G 4G4G
128M128M
16K16K
MOS Arrays MOS Logic 1975 Actual DataMOS Arrays MOS Logic 1975 Actual Data
103
100
1010
TransistorsTransistorsPer DiePer Die
1965 Actual Data1965 Actual Data109
Source: Intel Source: Intel
MMemoryemory1975 Projection1975 Projection108
107MicroprocessorMicroprocessor
106
105
104
102
101
19601960 19651965 19701970 19751975 19801980 19851985 19901990 19951995 20002000 20052005 20102010
Minimum Feature SizeMinimum Feature Size
'90 '95 ’00 '05 '10
Intel [update 5/20/02]
ITRS [2001 edition]
**
Projected
Human hair, 100 µm
Buckyball, 0.001 µm
Amoeba, 15 µm
Red blood cell, 7 µm
AIDS virus, 0.1 µm
ExamplesExamplesFeature SizeFeature Size
(microns)(microns)
100
10
1
0.1
0.01'60 '65 '70 '75 ’80 '85
** Planar Transistor; remaining data points are ICs.** Planar Transistor; remaining data points are ICs.Source: Intel, post ‘96 trend data provided by SIA Source: Intel, post ‘96 trend data provided by SIA International Technology Roadmap for Semiconductors (ITRS)International Technology Roadmap for Semiconductors (ITRS)^ [ITRS DRAM Half^ [ITRS DRAM Half--Pitch vs. Intel “Lithography”]Pitch vs. Intel “Lithography”]
Processor Performance (MIPS)Processor Performance (MIPS)
0.01
0.1
1
10
100
1000
10000
100000
1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005
MIPS 386
8008
8080
286
Pentium®
Pentium® 2
8086
4004
486
Pentium® 4
Processor Power (Watts) Processor Power (Watts) -- Active & Leakage Active & Leakage
0.001
0.01
0.1
1
10
100
1000
1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010
Pow
er (W
) ActiveActive
LeakageLeakage
Processor Supply VoltageProcessor Supply Voltage
1
10
100
1970 1980 1990 2000 2010
Pow
er S
uppl
y (V
olt)
193nm Step and Scan Production Tool193nm Step and Scan Production Tool
Lithography Tool Cost ( $ )Lithography Tool Cost ( $ )
Exp+04Exp+04
Exp+05Exp+05
Exp+06Exp+06
Exp+07Exp+07
Exp+08Exp+08
19601960 19701970 19801980 19901990 20002000 20102010
Lith
o T
ool C
ost (
$ )
Lith
o T
ool C
ost (
$ )
Worldwide Semiconductor RevenuesWorldwide Semiconductor Revenues
$B$B
1
10
100
1000
'68 ’70 '72 '74 '76 '78 '80 '82 '84 '86 '88 ’90 '92 '94 '96 '98 '00 '02'021
10
100
1000
'68 ’70 '72 '74 '76 '78 '80 '82 '84 '86 '88 ’90 '92 '94 '96 '98 '00
Source: Intel/WSTS,12/02Source: Intel/WSTS,12/02
Transistors Shipped Per YearTransistors Shipped Per Year
1017
1016
1015
1014
1013
1012
1011
1010
109
Units
1018
'68 '70 '72 '74 '76 '78 '80 '82 '84 '86 '88 '90 '92 '94 '96 '98 '00 '02
Source: Dataquest/Intel, 12/02Source: Dataquest/Intel, 12/02
Average Transistor Price By YearAverage Transistor Price By Year$$
10
1
0.1
0.01
0.001
0.0001
0.00001
0.000001
0.0000001'68 '70 '72 '74 '76 '78 '80 '82 '84 '86 '88 '90 '92 '94 '96 '98 '00 '02
Source: Dataquest/Intel12/02Source: Dataquest/Intel12/02
NO EXPONENTIAL IS FOREVER . . .NO EXPONENTIAL IS FOREVER . . .
BUTBUT
WE CAN DELAY “FOREVER”WE CAN DELAY “FOREVER”
Projected 2000 Wafer, circa 1975Projected 2000 Wafer, circa 1975
57"
Moore was not always accurateMoore was not always accurate
1” Wafer Of Planar Transistors, ~19591” Wafer Of Planar Transistors, ~1959
The First Planar Integrated Circuit, 1961The First Planar Integrated Circuit, 1961
90 nm Generation Interconnects90 nm Generation InterconnectsM7
M6
M5
M4
M3
M2
M1
Low-k CDO Dielectric
Copper Interconnects
Combination of copper + low-k dielectric now meeting performance and manufacturing goals
1 1 µµmm22 SRAM CellSRAM CellP501 Contact P501 Contact
19781978
P1262 SRAM Cell P1262 SRAM Cell 20022002
P501 Contact P501 Contact 19781978
P1262 SRAM Cell P1262 SRAM Cell 20022002
1 1 µµmm
50nm Resist Lines With 193nm Light50nm Resist Lines With 193nm Light--0.2um focus0.2um focus --0.3um focus0.3um focus
““best focusbest focus””
+0.2um focus+0.2um focus +0.3um focus+0.3um focus
Minimum Insulator Thickness vs TimeMinimum Insulator Thickness vs Time
1
10
100
'69 '72 '75 '78 '90 '93 '96 '99 '02 '05
Oxide ThicknessOxide Thickness(Nanometers)(Nanometers)
1.0µ1.0µ
0.35µ0.35µ0.25µ0.25µ
0.18µ0.18µ0.13µ0.13µ
ElectricalElectricalPhysicalPhysical
Source: IntelSource: Intel
High K for Gate Dielectrics High K for Gate Dielectrics
Silicon substrateSilicon substrate
GateGate
3.0nm High3.0nm High--kk
Silicon substrateSilicon substrate
1.2nm SiO1.2nm SiO22
GateGate
Experimental high-k1.6X
< 0.01X
90nm process1X1X
CapacitanceLeakage
Source: IntelSource: Intel
New Materials and Device StructuresNew Materials and Device StructuresExtending Transistor ScalingExtending Transistor Scaling
GateSilicideAdded
ChannelStrainedSilicon
ChangesMade
FutureOptions
High-kGate
Dielectric
TransistorTransistor
NewTransistorStructure
TriTri--Gate Transistor StructureGate Transistor Structure
Current
Lg
Source
Drain
Gate
Tox
SiO2
HSi
WSi
Technology Generations to ComeTechnology Generations to Come
Double the DensityDouble the DensityReduce Line Width by 0.7xReduce Line Width by 0.7x
130nm130nm 90nm90nm 60nm60nm 45nm45nm 30nm30nm ??
2 or 3 years between generations 2 or 3 years between generations
~10 ~10 ±± 2 Years2 Years
EUV Printed and Etched LinesEUV Printed and Etched Lines
100 nm, k1 = 0.75 80 nm, k1 = 0.60 50 nm dense, k1 = 0.37
Extreme Ultraviolet (EUV) LithographyExtreme Ultraviolet (EUV) Lithography
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