NTNU Speech Lab An Introduction to Variational Methods for Graphical Models Michael I. Jordan,...

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An Introduction to Variational Methods for Graphical Models

Michael I. Jordan, Zoubin Ghahramani, Tommi S. Jaakkola and Lawrence K. Saul

報告者：邱炫盛

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Outline

• Introduction

• Exact Inference

• Basics of Variational Methodology

• …

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Introduction

• The problem of probabilistic inference in graphical models is the problem of computing a conditional probability distribution

EPEHP

EHP,

|

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Exact Inference

• Junction Tree Algorithm– Moralization– Triangulation

• Graphical models– Directed (& Acyclic)

• Bayesian Network• Local conditional probabilities

– Undirected • Markov random field• Potentials with the cliques

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Exact Inference

• Directed Graphical Model– Specified numerically by associating local conditional

probabilities with each nodes in the graph

• The conditional probability– The probability of node given the values of its parents

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Exact Inference

N

iii SSPSP

1)(| Joint probability:

Directed Graph

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Exact Inference

• Undirected Graphical Model– specified numerically by associating “potentials” with the cliq

ue of the graph

• Potential– A function on the set of configurations of a clique (that is, a s

etting of values for all of the nodes in the clique)

• Clique– (Maximal) complete subgraph

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Exact Inference

Undirected Graph

S

M

iii

M

i iiCZ

Z

CSP

1

1 ,

Joint probability:

Partition function

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Exact Inference

• The junction tree algorithm compiles directed graphical models into undirected graphical models– Moralization– Triangulation

• Moralization– Convert the directed graph into an undirected graph (skip

when undirected graph)– The variables do not always appear together within a

clique– “marry” the parents of all of the nodes with undirected edges

and then drop the arrows (moral graph)

)(, ii SS

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Exact Inference

• Triangulation– Take a moral graph as input and produces as output an

undirected graph in which additional edges (possibly) been added (allow recursive calculation)

• A graph is not triangulated if there are 4-cycles which do not have a chord

• Chord– An edge between non-neighboring nodes

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Exact Inference

CDPBCPABPAPDCBAP |||,,,?

DBCPADBPAPDCBAP ,||,,,,

4-cycle Graph

ABD

BCD

BD

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Exact Inference

• Once a graph has been triangulated, it is possible to arrange cliques of the graph into a data structure known as a junction tree

• Running intersection property– If a node appears in any two cliques in the tree, it appears in

all cliques that lie on the path between the two cliques (the cliques assign the same marginal probability to the nodes that they have in common)

• Local consistency implies global consistency in a junction tree because of running intersection property

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Exact Inference

• The QMR-DT database– A diagnostic aid for internal medicine

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Basics of variational methodology

• Variational methods– used as approximation methods– convert a complex problem into a simpler problem– The decoupling achieved via an expansion of the problem to

include additional parameters

• The terminology “variational” comes from the roots of the techniques in the calculus of variation

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Basics of variational methodology

• Example: logarithm

– λ: variational parameter

• If λ changes, the family of such lines forms an upper envelope of the logarithm function

• So,

• The minimum over these bounds is the exact value

1lnminln

xx

1lnln xx

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Basics of variational methodology

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Basics of variational methodology

• Example: logistic regression model

• Logistic concave

• So,

xe

xf

1

1

xexg 1ln

1ln1ln

min

H

Hxxg

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Basics of variational methodology

• Then, take the exponential of both sides

• Finally,

Hxexf min

Hxexf

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Basics of variational methodology

xfxf

fxxf

T

x

T

min

min

*

*

• Convex duality– A concave function can be represented via a conjugate or

dual function

– Upper bound

– Non-linear bound

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Basics of variational methodology

• To summarize, if the function is already convex or concave then we simply calculate the conjugate function or then we look for an invertible transformation that render the function convex or concave if the function is not convex or concave

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Basics of variational methodology

• Approximation for joint and conditional probabilities– Consider directed graph and upper bound

– Let E and H are disjoint

– treat right side as a function to be minimized with respect λ

• The best global bounds are obtained when the probabilistic dependencies in the distribution are reflected in dependencies in the approximation

i

Uiii

iii SSPSSPSP ,||

H i

Uiii

H i

SSPEHPEP ,|, not exact values

exact values

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Basics of variational methodology

• Obtain a lower bound on the likelihood P(E) by fitting variational parameters

• Substitute these parameters into the parameterized variation form for P(H,E)

• Utilize the variational form as an efficient inference engine in calculating an approximation to P(H|E)

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Basics of variational methodology

• Sequential approach– Introduce variational transformations for the nodes in a partic

ular order– The goal is to transform the network until the resulting transf

ormed network is amenable to exact methods– Begin with the untransformed graph and introduce variationa

l transformations one node at a time– Or begin with a completely transformed graph and re-introdu

ce exact conditional probabilities

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Basics of variational methodology

• The QMR-DT network

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Basics of variational methodology

• Block approach

• …