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Lehrstuhl für Energiewirtschaft | Energiewirtschaftliches Institut der Universität zu Köln
Broghan Helgeson, Simon Paulus and Jakob Peter15th IAEE European Conference 2017 | 3rd to 6th September, 2017 Hofburg Congress Center | Vienna, Austria
Pathways for decarbonizing the road
transport sector – the example of
Germany
The work was partially carried under the research project “Virtuelles Institut Strom zu Gas und Wärme” financed by the
Ministry for Innovation, Science and Research for the State of North Rhine-Westphalia (Ministerium für Innovation,
Wissenschaft und Forschung des Landes NRW).
2
1. Introduction and Research Question
2. Literature and Methodology
3. Model Approach
4. Results
5. Conclusion & Further Research
Content
Introduction and Research Question
3
Source for icons: thenounproject; Figure based on Energiewirtschaftliche Tagesfragen (2015);
Data taken from UBA (2012, 2015)
Sectors in the ETS
Sectors not in the ETS
-9% vs. 2005
-0,5% vs. 2005
Research Questions
4
• What is the cost-optimal decarbonization pathway in the German and
European road transport sectors under a sector-specific CO2 target?
• What are the implications of the decarbonization of the road transport
sector on the electricity sector? What role could sector-coupling
technologies such as power-to-gas and electric vehicles have in a low-
carbon fuel economy?
Literature and Methodology
5
• Extensive literature exists that examine…
Decarbonization via sector-coupling in a European (e.g., Knaut et al., 2016) and
national context (e.g., Palzer and Henning, 2014)
Energy modelling (e.g., Richter, 2011) and scenarios (e.g., Söderholm et al., 2011)
Powert-to-X and synfuels (e.g. Brynolf et al., 2017)
Transformation of the road transport sector for Europe (e.g., Schmidt et al., 2016)
and nationally (e.g., Van Vliet et al., 2011; Romejko and Nakano, 2016)
• We analyze the European road transport sector with complete interaction
with the European electricity (and district heating) sectors using a cost-
minimizing linear investment and dispatch model
All investments are endogenous (including the corresponding electricity prices) as
the cost function is minimized
such that the equilibrium constraint is held at all points in time
Source: Richter (2011)
Model Extensions to DIMENSION:
Sector coupling
6
DIMENSION (EU electricity market invest & dispatch model)
Power-to-X module(EU invest & dispatch)
Road transport module(EU invest & dispatch)
Sector coupling – PtX technologies
7
• Feed-in into gas grid limited by %-
threshold for gas injections
• H2 usage within road transportation sector
• H2 usage within industrial sector (i.e.
chemical industry)
• Feed-in into gas grid limited by %-
threshold for gas injections
• H2 or CH4 storage within available
infrastructure
• Reconversion of H2 or CH4 to electricity
• H2,CH4 or O2 usage in road transportation
sector and within selected industries
The PtX-technologies are modelled using various vintage classes based on technological progress (efficiency)
and learning rates
• Gasoline or diesel used for conventional
combustion engines or hybrids
• O2 may be sold to industries
Sector coupling – Road Transport Sector
8
The model is coupled with the electricity sector and accounts for all carbon emissions
for fuel transformation, fuel transport and combustion as well as costs for fuel
production, fuel distribution, vehicles and infrastructure.
* H2: Hydrogen Gas, LH2: Liquid Hydrogen, CNG: Compressed Natural Gas, LNG: Liquid Natural Gas
Note: Non-plug-in hybrids with gasoline, diesel and natural gas use a battery to assist the car in accelerating, braking and other non-driving features
Scenario Definition
9
2020 2030 2050
-21% vs. 2005 (2020
climate & energy package)
-43% vs. 2005 (2030 climate
& energy framework)
-80% vs. 1990 (2050 low-
carbon economy)
2020 2030 2050
-7% vs. 2005 (based on EU
effort-sharing decision)
-38% vs. 2005 (based on EU
effort-sharing decision)
-80% vs. 1990 (2050 low-
carbon economy)
EU-ETS CO2 Cap
Country- and
Sector-Specific
Mobility CO2 Cap
Results Germany: Road Transport Sector
10
Emissions
(TTW)
No emissions
(TTW)
Results Germany: Sector-Coupling
11
2 GW in 2030, 6 GW in 2045 electrolysisproducesH2 to be fedinto naturalgas grid (at 10%-vol limit)
Conclusions (for Germany) and further
research
12
• Natural gas and natural gas hybrids serve as a transition technology for passenger
and light-duty vehicles
• Gasoline hybrids will continue to use existing infrastructure in order to decarbonize
the current passenger vehicle segment
• Long-term, electric vehicles dominate passenger and light-duty vehicle segment
• Power-to-hydrogen fed into natural gas grid is used in Germany in 2050 to reduce
carbon emissions of natural gas hybrid and plug-in hybrid vehicles
• Heavy-duty vehicles use liquid hydrogen starting in 2050, before that LNG
• Electricity consumption due to sector-coupling increases by about 110 TWh in 2015
• Marginal CO2-abatement costs of road transport sector are at least 5 times higher
than in the electricity sector
• If WTT emissions (e.g., from gas reforming to produce H2) are included in the EU-
ETS, the cost-optimal decarbonization pathway for the road transport sector in the
short- and medium- term is mainly conventional, but less carbon-intensive, fuels
• Further research avenues include:
Scenarios investigating further decarbonization policies
Effects of infrastructure costs on investment decisions
Long-term storage of PtX-products via higher spatial and temporal resolution
Accounting for other environmental targets such as Nox emissions, etc.
Accounting for behavioral aspects
Thank you for your attention!
Broghan Helgeson
ewi Energy Research & Scenarios
Alte Wagenfabrik
Vogelsangerstraße 321
D-50827 Köln
Overview Data: Example of Road Transport
14
Parameter Unit Description
Ve
hic
le T
ec
hn
olo
gy
Total driving
distance per yearbillion km
Demand for each segment per
year (ca.
Annual driving
distance per
vehicle per year
km/vehicle per
year
13,800 km/a (PPV),
21,800 km/a (LDV)
70,000 km/a (HDV)
Vehicle lifetime years14 years (PPV),
10 years (LDV, HDV)
Purchase price Euro/kmVaries by vehicle technology
and segment over time
O&M costs Euro/kmVaries by vehicle technology
and segment over time
Fuel
consumptionkWh/km
Measures efficiency, varies by
vehicle technology and
segment over time
Fu
el
Typ
e
CO2 factorkg CO2-eq/
kWh-fuel
CO2 released upon
combustion
„Well-to-Tank“
CO2 factor
kg CO2-eq/
kWh-fuel
CO2 released from fuel
production and distribution
Fuel price Euro/kWh-fuel Varies by fuel and over time
Production costs Euro/kWh-fuel
Transformation of fossil fuels
for use in road transport
sector
Infr
as
tru
ctu
re Capital costs Euro/vehicle Varies by fuel type over time
O&M costs Euro/vehicle Varies by fuel type over time
Distribution costs Euro/vehicle Varies by fuel type over time
Infrastructure
lifetimeyears 14 years
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