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3 SoNv has average development & redevelopment opportunities Metro Perspective: Top 10 Metros for Development/Redevelopment: Opportunities + Las Vegas MSA (Of 60 Largest Metros) 1Houston4.62Weak 2Dallas/Fort Worth4.24Declining 3San Jose4.20Average 4Seattle4.19Improving 5New Orleans4.17Strong 6New York—Brooklyn4.15 7Denver4.14 8San Francisco4.09 9Nashville Minneapolis/St. Paul Las Vegas Milwaukee Spokane Birmingham3.17 Source: Emerging Trends in Real Estate 2015 ULI-PwC Survey. Based on survey of 1,400 industry leaders.
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SOUTHERN NEVADA2015 & BEYOND
February 10, 2015
Prepared by:
HOW OTHERS SEE US
2
3
SoNv has average development & redevelopment opportunities.2015 Metro Perspective: Top 10 Metros for Development/Redevelopment: Opportunities + Las Vegas MSA (Of 60 Largest Metros)
1Houston 4.62 Weak
2Dallas/Fort Worth 4.24 Declining
3San Jose 4.20 Average
4Seattle 4.19 Improving
5New Orleans 4.17 Strong
6New York—Brooklyn 4.15
7Denver 4.14
8San Francisco 4.09
9Nashville 4.06
10 Minneapolis/St. Paul 4.05
57Las Vegas 3.1758 Milwaukee 3.17
59 Spokane 3.17
60 Birmingham 3.17
Source: Emerging Trends in Real Estate 2015 ULI-PwC Survey.
Based on survey of 1,400 industry
leaders.
4
SoNV lags in projected economic strengthamong western metros.2015 Strength of Economy Scores (Out of 5): Local Outlook: West Region
1 2 3 4 5Weak Declining Average Improving Strong
Source: Emerging Trends in Real Estate 2015 ULI-PwC Survey.
Based on survey of 1,400 industry
leaders.
5
SoNV CRE lags investment prospects lag other western metros, cont’d.2015 Sector Investment Prospects (Out of 5): Las Vegas & Western Region
Source: Emerging Trends in Real Estate 2015 ULI-PwC Survey.
Based on survey of 1,400 industry
leaders.
6
Less than optimal LV real estate prospects: investment, development & homebuilding.2015 Top 10 U.S. Metros to Watch Plus Las Vegas:Overall Real Estate Prospects (5 is Highest Score)
Market (Of 75 Largest Markets) Investment Development Homebuilding
1 Houston (1, 1, 2) 4.01 3.80 4.21
2 Austin (2, 4, 1) 3.85 3.68 4.33
3 San Francisco (3, 2, 5) 3.82 3.75 3.80
4 Denver (5, 5, 4) 3.66 3.54 3.87
5 Dallas/Fort Worth (9, 8, 3) 3.56 3.43 3.98
6 Los Angeles (6, 6, 6) 3.65 3.52 3.73
7 Charlotte (7, 7, 7) 3.61 3.44 3.71
8 Seattle (4, 3, 17) 3.70 3.72 3.34
9 Boston (8, 9, 14) 3.58 3.37 3.39
10 Raleigh/Durham (16, 17, 9) 3.42 3.24 3.57
64 Las Vegas (62, 64, 64) 2.59 2.46 2.58
Source: Emerging Trends in Real Estate 2015 ULI-PwC Survey.
Based on survey of 1,400 industry
leaders.
THE REALITY:SOUTHERN NEVADA
ECONOMY
7
8Sources: Bureau of Economic Analysis, Bureau of Labor Statistics, *RGMP 2001-2013.
Rank Among 60 Largest US Metros: 2000-2013
Recovery somewhat mixed.
Population Change (#) #10
Population Growth (%) #3
Employment Change (#) #10
Employment Growth (%) #5
Real GMP* Change (#) #33
Real GMP* Growth (%) #25
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90
-16%
-14%
-12%
-10%
-8%
-6%
-4%
-2%
0%
Comparison of Recession Job Growth Recoveries% Job Losses Relative to Peak Employment Month1948 1953 1957 1960 1969 1974 1980 19811990 2001 2007 US 2007
Number of Months After Peak Employment
9Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics.
Nevada Recession Recoveries: 1948-Present
Nevada job recovery from Great Recession after 91 months.
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89
90
-16%
-14%
-12%
-10%
-8%
-6%
-4%
-2%
0%
Comparison of Recession Job Growth Recoveries% Job Losses Relative to Peak Employment Month1948 1953 1957 1960 1969 1974 1980 19811990 2001 2007 US 2007
Number of Months After Peak Employment
10Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics.
Nevada Recession Recoveries: 1948-Present
Nevada job recovery from Great Recession after 91 months.
Nevada
US
11Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis, International Monetary Fund.
US Real GDP Actual: 2003-2009
US real GDP further improving, compared to recent years.
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 201512,000
13,000
14,000
15,000
16,000
17,000
18,000
-5%
-4%
-3%
-2%
-1%
0%
1%
2%
3%
4%
5%
Real Gross Domestic Product % Change
Billi
ons o
f Cha
ined
200
9 Do
llars
12Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis, International Monetary Fund.
US Real GDP Forecast: 2014-2015
US real GDP further improving, compared to recent years.
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 201512,000
13,000
14,000
15,000
16,000
17,000
18,000
-5%
-4%
-3%
-2%
-1%
0%
1%
2%
3%
4%
5%
Real Gross Domestic Product % Change
Billi
ons o
f Cha
ined
200
9 Do
llars
13Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis, RCG Economics.
Las Vegas Real Gross Metro Product: 2003-2009
Las Vegas real GMP growth also improving coming out of Great Recession.
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 201565,000
70,000
75,000
80,000
85,000
90,000
95,000
100,000
105,000
-15%
-10%
-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%Real Gross Metro Product % Change
Mill
ions
of C
hain
ed 2
009
Dolla
rs
14Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis, RCG Economics.
Las Vegas Real GMP Forecast: 2014-2015
Las Vegas real GMP growth also improving coming out of Great Recession.
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 201565,000
70,000
75,000
80,000
85,000
90,000
95,000
100,000
105,000
-15%
-10%
-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%Real Gross Metro Product % Change
Mill
ions
of C
hain
ed 2
009
Dolla
rs
15Source: Nevada Department of Taxation.
Clark County Taxable Retail Sales: Nov-04 to Nov-14
Taxable sales nearing all-time high, continues to fuel LV economy.
$1,500,000,000.0
$2,000,000,000.0
$2,500,000,000.0
$3,000,000,000.0
$3,500,000,000.0
-25%
-20%
-15%
-10%
-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
CC Taxable SalesYOY Chg.
16Source: Nevada Department of Taxation.
Clark County Taxable Retail Sales: Nov-04 to Nov-14
Taxable sales nearing all-time high, continues to fuel LV economy.
$1,500,000,000.0
$2,000,000,000.0
$2,500,000,000.0
$3,000,000,000.0
$3,500,000,000.0
-20%
-15%
-10%
-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
CC Taxable SalesYOY Chg.
Billi
ons
Nov-14: $3.01B
Nov-14: 8.1%
THE REALITY:SOUTHERN NEVADA POPULATION & JOBS
17
18Source: Census Bureau.
Las Vegas MSA High-Skill Population Growth (% Change): 2000-2013
Las Vegas skilled worker pool has boomed since 2000.
MSABach. Degree+
Pop. Growth RankTotal Pop.
Growth RankCharlotte, NC 102% 1 35% 5Grand Rapids, MI 93% 2 9% 33Las Vegas 91% 3 45% 3Austin, TX 80% 4 49% 2Raleigh, NC 79% 5 51% 1Riverside, CA 74% 6 34% 8Nashville, TN 72% 7 27% 12Orlando, FL 66% 8 37% 4San Antonio 66% 9 32% 9Phoenix 63% 10 34% 6
19Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics.
Las Vegas MSA Employment vs. US Employment (% Change): Dec-95 to Dec-14
Job growth hurt in ‘01 Recession but crippled by Great Recession.
Dec-95
Dec-96
Dec-97
Dec-98
Dec-99
Dec-00
Dec-01
Dec-02
Dec-03
Dec-04
Dec-05
Dec-06
Dec-07
Dec-08
Dec-09
Dec-10
Dec-11
Dec-12
Dec-13
Dec-14
-15.0%
-10.0%
-5.0%
0.0%
5.0%
10.0%
15.0%
Las Vegas USA
20Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics.
Las Vegas MSA Employment vs. US Employment (% Change): Dec-95 to Dec-14
Job growth hurt in ‘01 Recession but crippled by Great Recession.
Dec-95
Dec-96
Dec-97
Dec-98
Dec-99
Dec-00
Dec-01
Dec-02
Dec-03
Dec-04
Dec-05
Dec-06
Dec-07
Dec-08
Dec-09
Dec-10
Dec-11
Dec-12
Dec-13
Dec-14
-15.0%
-10.0%
-5.0%
0.0%
5.0%
10.0%
15.0%
Las Vegas USA
19811983
19851987
19891991
19931995
19971999
20012003
20052007
20092011
2013-4%
-2%
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
Las Vegas Years Las Vegas Lost Jobs USA
21Sources: World Bank, Clark County Comprehensive Planning.
Clark County Population vs. US Population (% Change): 1981-2013
Great Recession severely reduced population growth, now recovering.
22Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics.
Nevada Employment vs. Rest of US (% Change): 2013
Nevada jobs bounce back big in 2013, but U-6 rate remains stubbornly high.Fastest Growing States
1-YR Growth Rate
Slowest Growing States
1-YR Growth Rate
North Dakota 3.7% Rhode Island 0.7%Nevada 3.4% Arkansas 0.6%Florida 2.8% DC 0.6%Oregon 2.8% Pennsylvania 0.5%Utah 2.8% New Jersey 0.5%Texas 2.7% South Dakota 0.4%Colorado 2.7% Vermont 0.3%California 2.6% Virginia 0.3%South Carolina 2.5% West Virginia 0.1%Delaware 2.4% New Mexico -0.2%
23Note: Quarterly figures are rolling averages of the 4 quarters ending in the noted quarter.
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics.
Nevada U-3 & U-6 Unemployment Rates: Q4-09 to Q4-14
“Headline” Unemployment rate improving but U-6 rate still too high.
0.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
20.0
25.0
11.3
12.413.5
13.814.4
14.2
13.613.5
13.112.7
12.311.9
11.010.8
10.49.7
9.89.4
8.88.3
7.7
19.2
20.421.5
22.3 23.6
23.7
23.3
23.3
22.722.3
22.121.4
20.319.6
19.018.1
18.117.4
16.215.9 15.3
U3 U6
Perc
ent (
%)
24Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics.
Las Vegas MSA Average Weekly Earnings: Dec-08 to Dec-14
Wages, after adjusting for inflation, remain stagnant.
Dec-08
Dec-09
Dec-10
Dec-11
Dec-12
Dec-13
Dec-14
$550
$600
$650
$700
$750
Nominal Avg. Weekly Earnings
Inflation-Adjusted (2007$) Avg. Weekly Earnings
25Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics.
Las Vegas MSA Average Weekly Earnings: Dec-08 to Dec-14
Wages, after adjusting for inflation, remain stagnant.
$550
$600
$650
$700
$750
Dec-14 Nominal: $700
Nominal Avg. Weekly Earnings
Inflation-Adjusted (2007$) Avg. Weekly Earnings Dec-14 Real: $622
26Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics.
Las Vegas MSA Average Weekly Hours: Dec-08 to Dec-14
Age of the part-time worker. Weekly hours dropping as unemployment rate drops.
Dec-08 Jun-09 Dec-09 Jun-10 Dec-10 Jun-11 Dec-11 Jun-12 Dec-12 Jun-13 Dec-13 Jun-14 Dec-1433
34
35
36
37
38
United States Nevada Las Vegas MSA
27Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics.
Las Vegas MSA Average Weekly Hours: Dec-08 to Dec-14
Age of the part-time worker. Weekly hours dropping as unemployment rate drops.
Dec-08 Jun-09 Dec-09 Jun-10 Dec-10 Jun-11 Dec-11 Jun-12 Dec-12 Jun-13 Dec-13 Jun-14 Dec-1433
34
35
36
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United States Nevada Las Vegas MSA
US: Dec-14: 34.5
LV: Dec-14: 33.3
NV: Dec-14: 33.4
THE REALITY:SOUTHERN NEVADAGAMING & TOURISM
28
29Source: Las Vegas Convention and Visitors Authority.
Las Vegas Valley Hotel Revenue per Available Room: Dec-04 to Dec-14
RevPAR recovering slowly from recession but back up over $100.
Dec-04
Mar-05Jul-0
5
Nov-05
Mar-06Jul-0
6
Nov-06
Mar-07Jul-0
7
Nov-07
Mar-08Jul-0
8
Oct-08
Feb-09
Jun-09
Oct-09
Feb-10
Jun-10
Oct-10
Feb-11
Jun-11
Oct-11
Feb-12
May-12
Sep-12
Jan-13
May-13
Sep-13
Jan-14
May-14
Sep-14
$40
$50
$60
$70
$80
$90
$100
$110
$120
$130
30Source: Las Vegas Convention and Visitors Authority.
Las Vegas Valley Hotel Revenue per Available Room: Dec-04 to Dec-14
RevPAR recovering slowly from recession but back up over $100.
Dec-04
Mar-05Jul-0
5
Nov-05
Mar-06Jul-0
6
Nov-06
Mar-07Jul-0
7
Nov-07
Mar-08Jul-0
8
Oct-08
Feb-09
Jun-09
Oct-09
Feb-10
Jun-10
Oct-10
Feb-11
Jun-11
Oct-11
Feb-12
May-12
Sep-12
Jan-13
May-13
Sep-13
Jan-14
May-14
Sep-14
$40
$50
$60
$70
$80
$90
$100
$110
$120
$130
Nov-14: $100.80
31Source: Las Vegas Convention and Visitors Authority.
Las Vegas Valley Visitor Volume: Dec-04 to Dec-14
Visitor volume at highest ever levels & continues to spike.
2,900,000.0
3,000,000.0
3,100,000.0
3,200,000.0
3,300,000.0
3,400,000.0
3,500,000.0
32Source: Las Vegas Convention and Visitors Authority.
Las Vegas Valley Visitor Volume: Dec-04 to Dec-14
Visitor volume at highest ever levels & continues to spike.
2,900,000.0
3,000,000.0
3,100,000.0
3,200,000.0
3,300,000.0
3,400,000.0
3,500,000.0
Dec-14: 3.43M
33Source: Nevada Gaming Control Board.
Clark County Gaming Revenue: Dec-04 to Dec-14
Gaming revenue increasing due to baccarat; net baccarat stagnant.
$600,000,000
$650,000,000
$700,000,000
$750,000,000
$800,000,000
$850,000,000
$900,000,000
$950,000,000
Total Gaming RevenueNet Baccarat
34Source: Nevada Gaming Control Board.
Clark County Gaming Revenue: Dec-04 to Dec-14
Gaming revenue increasing due to baccarat; net baccarat stagnant.
$600,000,000
$650,000,000
$700,000,000
$750,000,000
$800,000,000
$850,000,000
$900,000,000
$950,000,000
Total Gaming RevenueNet Baccarat
Dec-14 With Bacc.: 796.2
Dec-14 net Bacc.: 671.9M
35Source: AAA.
US & Las Vegas MSA Gas Prices: One Year Ago to Current (2/2/2015)
Gas prices have tumbled over the last several months.
CurrentYesterdayWeek AgoMonth AgoYear Ago$1.90
$2.10
$2.30
$2.50
$2.70
$2.90
$3.10
$3.30
$3.50
Las Vegas MSAU.S. Average
THE REALITY:SOUTHERN NEVADA
REAL ESTATE MARKETS
36
37Source: RCG Economics.
Las Vegas Valley Commercial Real Estate Vacancy Rates: Q3/04 to Q3/14
Vacancy rates recovering across board, led by Industrial real estate.
Q3 '04
Q1 '05
Q3 '05
Q1 '06
Q3 '06
Q1 '07
Q3 '07
Q1 '08
Q3 '08
Q1 '09
Q3 '09
Q1 '10
Q3 '10
Q1 '11
Q3 '11
Q1 '12
Q3 '12
Q1 '13
Q3 '13
Q1 '14
Q3 '14
-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
Industrial Spec Office Anchored Retail
38Source: RCG Economics.
Las Vegas Valley Commercial Real Estate Vacancy Rates: Q3/04 to Q3/14
Vacancy rates recovering across board, led by Industrial real estate.
Q3 '04
Q1 '05
Q3 '05
Q1 '06
Q3 '06
Q1 '07
Q3 '07
Q1 '08
Q3 '08
Q1 '09
Q3 '09
Q1 '10
Q3 '10
Q1 '11
Q3 '11
Q1 '12
Q3 '12
Q1 '13
Q3 '13
Q1 '14
Q3 '14
-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
Industrial Spec Office Anchored RetailQ3'14 Off: 22.9%
Q3'14 Ind: 10.3%
Q3'14 Ret: 11.4%
39Source: RCG Economics.
Las Vegas Valley Distribution of Available Industrial Units, by Size: Q3/14
Lack of larger units hampering Industrial growth in LV; but help on the way.
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
1,400
1,6001411
53 17 7 2 0 0 1 1
(94.6%)
(3.6%) (1.1%) (0.5%) (0.1%) (0.0%) (0.0%) (0.1%) (0.1%)
Size Categories (sf)
Num
ber o
f Ava
ilabl
e Un
its
40Source: Home Builder's Research.
Las Vegas MSA Weighted Sales & Median Home Price: Dec-04 to Dec-14
Home sales slowing as price rises & cash-buyers leave market.
Dec-04
Dec-05
Dec-06
Dec-07
Dec-08
Dec-09
Dec-10
Dec-11
Dec-12
Dec-13
Dec-14
$0
$50,000
$100,000
$150,000
$200,000
$250,000
$300,000
$350,000
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
7,000
8,000
9,000
Median Price Total Sales
Med
ian
Hom
e Pr
ice Hom
e Sales
41Source: Home Builder's Research.
Las Vegas MSA Weighted Sales & Median Home Price: Dec-04 to Dec-14
Home sales slowing as price rises & cash-buyers leave market.
$0
$50,000
$100,000
$150,000
$200,000
$250,000
$300,000
$350,000
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
7,000
8,000
9,000
Median Price Total Sales
Med
ian
Hom
e Pr
ice
Home Sales
LOOKING FORWARD
42
“The only function of
economic forecasting is to
make astrology look
respectable.”
--John Kenneth Galbraith
43Sources: *CBER, **Woods & Poole, ***NV State Demographer.
Las Vegas MSA Population/Employment Forecast (% Change): 2014-2015
Looking ahead: Las Vegas MSA poised tocontinue making strides.
Las Vegas MSA (Pop./Emp.) 2014 2015
Population* 2.0% 2.1%
Population** 1.8% 1.8%
Population*** 1.3% 1.4%
Employment** 1.9% 1.9%Three Rules of Forecasting
If you give a number, don’t give a date.
If you give a date, don’t give a number.
If you get it right, don’t look surprised.
-- Anonymous
44
LV office-using jobs will be the largest.Las Vegas Major Occupations Forecast, by Total Jobs: 2014-2020
Source: EMSI, RCG Economics.
Industrial Office Retail100,000
200,000
300,000
400,000
500,000
600,000
224,860
516,008
195,381
235,364
549,365
209,506
2014 2014 20142020 2020 2020
45
Retail jobs will be fastest growing.Las Vegas Major Occupations Forecast, by Percent Growth: 2014-2020
Source: EMSI, RCG Economics.
Industrial Office Retail3.0%
4.0%
5.0%
6.0%
7.0%
8.0%
4.7%
6.5%
7.2%
46Source: EMSI.
Top 5 Las Vegas Industries, by Total Jobs: 2014-2020
In terms of occupations, food service & administration will be the biggest BIGGEST.
0
20,000
40,000
60,000
80,000
100,000
120,000
140,000
160,000
180,000
141,893138,757
106,977
70,762 64,757
153,514144,398
111,983
77,27470,036
2014 2020
47Source: EMSI.
Las Vegas Top 10 Job Forecast (# Change): 2014-2020
In terms of the # of jobs that will be produced, Services will lead.
Food Preparation & Serving Related Occupations
Personal Care & Service Occupations
Office & Administrative Support Occupations
Building & Grounds Cleaning & Maintenance Occupations
Sales & Related Occupations
Healthcare Practitioners & Technical Occupations
Transportation & Material Moving Occupations
Healthcare Support Occupations
Management Occupations
Business & Financial Operations Occupations
0 2,000 4,000 6,000 8,000 10,000 12,000 14,000
11,621
6,512
5,641
5,279
5,006
3,843
3,690
2,376
2,254
2,056
48Source: EMSI.
Las Vegas Top 10 Job Forecast 2014 Wages (for # Change): 2014-2020
In terms of the # of jobs that will be produced, Services will lead.
Healthcare Practitioners & Technical Occupations
Management Occupations
Business & Financial Operations Occupations
Transportation & Material Moving Occupations
Office & Administrative Support Occupations
Healthcare Support Occupations
Building & Grounds Cleaning & Maintenance Occupations
Sales & Related Occupations
Personal Care & Service Occupations
Food Preparation & Serving Related Occupations
$0 $5 $10 $15 $20 $25 $30 $35 $40 $45
$39.41
$39.32
$27.22
$16.16
$15.68
$15.17
$14.73
$14.28
$12.21
$12.11
49Source: EMSI.
Las Vegas Top 10 Job Forecast (% Change): 2014-2020
In terms of the rate of growth, Healthcare & STEM jobs will lead.
Healthcare Support Occupations
Community & Social Service Occupations
Computer & Mathematical Occupations
Life, Physical, & Social Science Occupations
Healthcare Practitioners & Technical Occupations
Arts, Design, Entertainment, Sports, & Media Occupations
Personal Care & Service Occupations
Food Preparation & Serving Related Occupations
Building & Grounds Cleaning & Maintenance Occupations
Legal Occupations
0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 10% 12% 14%
13.1%
11.8%
11.4%
10.5%
10.5%
9.9%
9.2%
8.2%
8.2%
7.3%
50Source: EMSI.
Las Vegas Top 10 Job Forecast 2014 Wages (for % Change): 2014-2020
In terms of the rate of growth, Healthcare & STEM jobs will lead.
Legal Occupations
Healthcare Practitioners & Technical Occupations
Computer & Mathematical Occupations
Life, Physical, & Social Science Occupations
Community & Social Service Occupations
Arts, Design, Entertainment, Sports, & Media Occupations
Healthcare Support Occupations
Building & Grounds Cleaning & Maintenance Occupations
Personal Care & Service Occupations
Food Preparation & Serving Related Occupations
$0 $5 $10 $15 $20 $25 $30 $35 $40 $45
$40.58
$39.41
$33.26
$32.76
$23.23
$20.98
$15.17
$14.73
$12.21
$12.11
WRAP-UPYESTERDAY, NOW &
TOMORROW IN PICTURES
51
52
While 2015 definitely won’t be another 2004 . . .
53
It won’t be another 2008 either . . .
54
It won’t even be another 2009 – 2013. . .
55
But even though still a bit wobbly, the recovery will continue to take hold in 2015.
Fed Policy
Corporate Profits
Gas Prices
Resort Industry Health
Recovering RE market
Healthy Job Growth
Population Growth
Economic Development
56
Contact:John Restrepo702-967-3188
jrestrepo@rcg1.comwww.rcg1.com
Twitter: @rcgeconomics
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