Tom Troland SUNY Global Center November 12 2015 Session 3 FINAL 11-06-2015

TOWARD A ONE-SCREEN WORLDTOWARD A ONE SCREEN WORLDWHAT DRIVES MEDIA CONVERGENCE?

单屏世界

THOMAS R TROLANDTRT ADVISORY

TOWARD A ONE-SCREEN WORLD: WHAT DRIVES MEDIA CONVERGENCE?

16 NOVEMBER 2015 / SESSION # 4

“TECHNOLOGY ISMIRACULOUS BECAUSEIT ALLOWS US TO DOMORE WITH LESS, RATCHETING UP OURFUNDAMENTALCAPABILITIES TO AHIGHER LEVEL.”

--PETERTHIELPETERTHIEL

FOUNDER OF PAYPAL

TOWARD A ONE-SCREEN WORLD: WHAT DRIVES MEDIA CONVERGENCE?

Then: a device and place for each mediummedium…

TOWARD A ONE-SCREEN WORLD: WHAT DRIVES MEDIA CONVERGENCE?

Next: every medium –and more– in onedevicedevice.

TOWARD A ONE-SCREEN WORLD: WHAT DRIVES MEDIA CONVERGENCE?

Four drivers of media convergence

3. 1.Mobility Urbanization

2. 4.Demographics Connectedness

TOWARD A ONE-SCREEN WORLD: WHAT DRIVES MEDIA CONVERGENCE?

Source: Mckinsey, No Ordinary Dispruption, 2015

Four drivers of media convergence--Especially in China!Especially in China!

http://www.mckinsey.com/global_locations/asia/singapore/en/latest_thinking

3. 1.Mobility Urbanization

2. 4.Demographics Connectedness

TOWARD A ONE-SCREEN WORLD: WHAT DRIVES MEDIA CONVERGENCE?

Source: Mckinsey, No Ordinary Dispruption, 2015

1. Urbanization. U n on

TOWARD A ONE-SCREEN WORLD: WHAT DRIVES MEDIA CONVERGENCE?

1. Urbanization. U n on

TOWARD A ONE-SCREEN WORLD: WHAT DRIVES MEDIA CONVERGENCE?

2. Demographics. og cs

TOWARD A ONE-SCREEN WORLD: WHAT DRIVES MEDIA CONVERGENCE?

2. Demographics. og cs

TOWARD A ONE-SCREEN WORLD: WHAT DRIVES MEDIA CONVERGENCE?

Urban + Educated = AffluentU n uc u n

TOWARD A ONE-SCREEN WORLD: WHAT DRIVES MEDIA CONVERGENCE?

3. Mobility3. o

TOWARD A ONE-SCREEN WORLD: WHAT DRIVES MEDIA CONVERGENCE?

3. Mobility3. o

TOWARD A ONE-SCREEN WORLD: WHAT DRIVES MEDIA CONVERGENCE?

China leads world to “Mobile Mind Shift”“Mobile Mind Shift”

“THIS IS A MOBILE MIND SHIFT, NOT JUST ‘MOBILE FIRST’. ITIS A COMPLETE CHANGE INTHE PSYCHOLOGY OFCONSUMERS: THEEXPECTATION THAT ANYDESIRED INFORMATION ORSERVICE IS AVAILABLE, ON ANYAPPROPRIATE DEVICE, INCONTEXT, ATYOUR MOMENTOF NEED ”OF NEED.”

JOSH BERNOFF, SENIORVICE PRESIDENTFORRESTER RESEARCH

TOWARD A ONE-SCREEN WORLD: WHAT DRIVES MEDIA CONVERGENCE?

Mobile: Useful for Everything.http://www.chinainternetwatch.com/top/

TOWARD A ONE-SCREEN WORLD: WHAT DRIVES MEDIA CONVERGENCE?

Mobile: UseD Everywhere.

TOWARD A ONE-SCREEN WORLD: WHAT DRIVES MEDIA CONVERGENCE?

4. Connectedness. Conn c n ss

TOWARD A ONE-SCREEN WORLD: WHAT DRIVES MEDIA CONVERGENCE?

Smartphone MajorityS on jo

TOWARD A ONE-SCREEN WORLD: WHAT DRIVES MEDIA CONVERGENCE?

Many ways to Connect, Share & SocializeSocialize

TOWARD A ONE-SCREEN WORLD: WHAT DRIVES MEDIA CONVERGENCE?

Digital Connectednesswww.wearesocial.cn

TOWARD A ONE-SCREEN WORLD: WHAT DRIVES MEDIA CONVERGENCE?

More than 10,000 new businesses registered in China every dayregistered in China every day

TOWARD A ONE-SCREEN WORLD: WHAT DRIVES MEDIA CONVERGENCE?

Tech Temple, Beijing 2015

“A NEW MEDIUM IS NEVER AN ADDITION

TO AN OLD ONE, NOR DOES IT LEAVE THE

OLD ONE IN PEACE. IT NEVER CEASES TO

OPPRESS THE OLDER MEDIA UNTIL IT

FINDS NEW SHAPES AND POSITIONS FOR

THEM.”– MARSHALL MCLUHAN, 1964

TOWARD A ONE-SCREEN WORLD: WHAT DRIVES MEDIA CONVERGENCE?

Business Models are ChallengedNearly half of content spending will be for digitalNearly half of content spending will be for digital

products by 2017

TOWARD A ONE-SCREEN WORLD: WHAT DRIVES MEDIA CONVERGENCE?

China’s robust media economyCAGR 2015-2019 Forecasted at 10.5%

Total E&M SpendingI Chi b Y

$235.7

$200

$250

tes

In China by Year

$143.1$150

$200

4 Ex

chan

ge R

at

$85.2

$50

$100

Bill

ions

US

/ 20

1

$0

$50$

B

TOWARD A ONE-SCREEN WORLD: WHAT DRIVES MEDIA CONVERGENCE?

* 2015-2019 totals are forecasts.

Changing emphasis in E&M SpendingFaster Growth in Digital / Lower growth in Traditional Media

Forecast Spending on Media in ChinaT t l $235 7 Billi i 2019

$88.4 15.1%14.0%

16.0%

$80 0$90.0

$100.0

Rat

e

Total: $235.7 Billion in 2019Total CAGR 2015-2019: 10.5%

$33 5

13.6%11.4%

6.8%7.6%

6 6%

9.8%8.7% 8.0%

10.0%

12.0%

$40 0$50.0$60.0$70.0$80.0

R 2

015-

2019

–20

14 E

xcha

nge

$33.5$24.1 $20.3

$13.1 $12.2 $11.7 $9.5 $8.6 $6.4 $3.3

6.8%

1 3%

6.1% 6.6%

3.1%

0 0%

2.0%

4.0%

6.0%

$0 0$10.0$20.0$30.0$40.0

CA

GR

$ B

illio

n U

S –

1.3% 0.0%$0.0

TOWARD A ONE-SCREEN WORLD: WHAT DRIVES MEDIA CONVERGENCE?

Source: http://www.pwchk.com/webmedia/doc/635775886983165765_cn_em_outlook_2015_2019.pdf

rapid transformation in Consumers’ Media UseMedia Use

TOWARD A ONE-SCREEN WORLD: WHAT DRIVES MEDIA CONVERGENCE?

Consumers’ Media Behavior: Adopt and AdjustAdopt and Adjust

Source: Market RaDaR Analysis Forrester Research 2014http://blogs.forrester.com/xiaofeng wang/14-05-

TOWARD A ONE-SCREEN WORLD: WHAT DRIVES MEDIA CONVERGENCE?

http://blogs.forrester.com/xiaofeng_wang/14 0509-introduce_the_marketing_radar_to_china

Spending Follows AttentionS n ng o ows n on

TOWARD A ONE-SCREEN WORLD: WHAT DRIVES MEDIA CONVERGENCE?

TOWARD A ONE-SCREEN WORLD: WHAT DRIVES MEDIA CONVERGENCE?

“We look at the present through a rear view mirror. We march backwards into the f t ”future.”

--Marshall McLuhan

TOWARD A ONE-SCREEN WORLD: WHAT DRIVES MEDIA CONVERGENCE?

Delighting in the Possible:Thinking and acting on ConvergenceThinking and acting on Convergence

http://www.mckinsey.com/insights/managing_in_uncertainty/delighting_in_the_possible

HABITS OF MIND:• ASK DIFFERENT QUESTIONS

• TAKE MULTIPLETAKE MULTIPLE

PERSPECTIVES

• SEE SYSTEMSS S S S

• EXPERIMENT AT THE

PERIPHERY

TOWARD A ONE-SCREEN WORLD: WHAT DRIVES MEDIA CONVERGENCE?

Delighting in the Possible:Thinking and acting on ConvergenceThinking and acting on Convergence

ACTIONS:• IDENTIFY PRACTICAL

OPTIONS

• ALIGN KEY STAKEHOLDERS

• DISAGGREGATE ANDS GG G

OPTIMIZE, ONE PIECE AT A

TIME

• DECIDE, PILOT, AND ROLL

OUT

TOWARD A ONE-SCREEN WORLD: WHAT DRIVES MEDIA CONVERGENCE?

DES MOINES IOWA USADES MOINES, IOWA USA

TOWARD A ONE-SCREEN WORLD: WHAT DRIVES MEDIA CONVERGENCE?

Commitment support focus…Co n su o ocus…

TOWARD A ONE-SCREEN WORLD: WHAT DRIVES MEDIA CONVERGENCE?

serving life stages…s v ng s g s…

TOWARD A ONE-SCREEN WORLD: WHAT DRIVES MEDIA CONVERGENCE?

Centered in BIG Data…C n n G …

TOWARD A ONE-SCREEN WORLD: WHAT DRIVES MEDIA CONVERGENCE?

Less reliance on advertising…ss nc on v s ng…

TOWARD A ONE-SCREEN WORLD: WHAT DRIVES MEDIA CONVERGENCE?

Strategic Focus on ConvergenceS g c ocus on Conv g nc

TOWARD A ONE-SCREEN WORLD: WHAT DRIVES MEDIA CONVERGENCE?

Making Meredith Digitalng g

TOWARD A ONE-SCREEN WORLD: WHAT DRIVES MEDIA CONVERGENCE?

Better Homes and Gardenso s n G ns

7.6 MILLIONCIRCULATION

3939 MILLIONADULTADULTREADERS

TOWARD A ONE-SCREEN WORLD: WHAT DRIVES MEDIA CONVERGENCE?

BH&G: Convergence Branding Model &G: Conv g nc n ng o

TOWARD A ONE-SCREEN WORLD: WHAT DRIVES MEDIA CONVERGENCE?

Allrecipes: Digital First Modelc s: g s o

15 Million A D l dApp Downloads

March 2013

TOWARD A ONE-SCREEN WORLD: WHAT DRIVES MEDIA CONVERGENCE?

Allrecipes: Digital First Modelc s: g s o

15 Million A D l d

500,000Circulation App Downloads

March 2013

C cu at oNovember 2013

TOWARD A ONE-SCREEN WORLD: WHAT DRIVES MEDIA CONVERGENCE?

media Brand for the One Screen Worldmedia Brand for the One Screen World

25 Million A D l d

1,300,000Circulation App Downloads

October 2015

C cu at oJanuary 2016

44 Million Users/ReadersTOWARD A ONE-SCREEN WORLD: WHAT DRIVES MEDIA CONVERGENCE?

44 Million Users/Readers

Branding For The One-Screen Worldn ng o On Sc n Wo

TOWARD A ONE-SCREEN WORLD: WHAT DRIVES MEDIA CONVERGENCE?

GLOBAL allrecipesG O c s

TOWARD A ONE-SCREEN WORLD: WHAT DRIVES MEDIA CONVERGENCE?

Allrecipes.cnc s.cn

TOWARD A ONE-SCREEN WORLD: WHAT DRIVES MEDIA CONVERGENCE?

Haier’s Relentless Search for new Valuehttp://www.gaofengadv.com/Cn/ / http://www.strategy-business.com/article/00296?gko=8155b

“THE KEY FACTOR OF TRADITIONALSALES WAS LOCATION. IFYOU HADSTORES IN GOOD LOCATIONS IN A CITY, THAT GAVEYOU THE BIGGESTADVANTAGE. DURING THE PC INTERNET ERA, THE KEY FACTOR WASTRAFFIC –WHOEVER HAD THEGREATEST TRAFFIC WAS THE WINNER. AND NOW IN THE MOBILE INTERNETERA, THE KEY FACTOR IS TIME.

“SO MY STORES ARE CHANGING FROMSEEKING GOOD LOCATIONSTOPURSUING THE TIME OF CUSTOMERS.”++ZHANG RUIMIN, CEO, THE HAIERGROUP

TOWARD A ONE-SCREEN WORLD: WHAT DRIVES MEDIA CONVERGENCE?

THOMAS R TROLAND

TRT ATRT ADVISORY

THOMAS.TROLAND1@MARIST.EDU

TOWARD A ONE-SCREEN WORLD: WHAT DRIVES MEDIA CONVERGENCE?20 October 2014