US WEEKLY WEATHER OUTLOOK - Deborah Weinswig Word - Weekly Weather Flash by Fung Global Retail Tech...

  1 DEBORAH  WEINSWIG,  MANAGING  DIRECTOR–HEAD  OF  GLOBAL  RETAIL  &  TECHNOLOGY  DEBORAHWEINSWIG@FUNG1937.COM    US:  917.655.6790    HK:  852.6119.1779    CN:  86.186.1420.3016  Copyright  ©  2016  The  Fung  Group.  All  rights  reserved.  

May 12, 2016

US WEEKLY WEATHER OUTLOOK

• May  8–14:  A  Warming  Trend  Boosts  Seasonal  Demand,  Although  the  Northeast  Remains  Challenging.  Stormy  Weather  in  the  Plains.  

• May  15–21:  Western  and  Central  Locations  Continue  to  Be  Warm,  Supporting  Seasonal  Demand.  The  East  Remains  Cooler  than  Last  Year.  

US:  WEEK  OF  MAY  8–14  Retail   implications:   Seasonal   demand  will   be   strongest   across  the  Western  and  Central  US  as  these  areas  trend  warmer  than  last  year  for  the  week.  

• Last   year,   this   week   was   warmer   than   normal:  Temperatures  were  warmer  than  normal,  driven  by  eastern  regions.  Rainfall  was  above  normal.  

• Hot  week  ahead:  The  Central  US  will  start  the  week  warm,  and   the  warm   temperatures  will   expand   into   the  East  and  West  as  the  week  progresses.  In  the  Southwest,  the  desert  will   see   temperatures   reaching   100   degrees,   while  temperatures  in  the  90s  will  extend  into  Texas.  

• Stormy   skies:   A   system  will  move   out   of   the   Rockies   into  the  Plains  at  the  start  of  the  week,  setting  off  showers  and  thunderstorms  with  a  chance  for  severe  weather.  Over  the  second  half  of   the  week,   the  system  will   track   to   the  East,  bringing  rain  at   the  close  of   the  work  week.  The  West  will  see  mostly  dry  weather.  

US:  WEEK  OF  MAY  15–21    

Retail  implications:  Most  of  the  Central  and  Western  US  will  see  temperatures   that   are   slightly   above   to   well   above   last   year’s,  resulting  in  promising  comps  to  last  year  for  seasonal  goods  such  as  iced  beverages  and  T-­‐shirts.  

• Last  year,   this  week’s   temperatures  were   slightly  below  average:  The  US  was  the  coolest  it  had  been  for  the  week  since   2011.   Rainfall   during   the   week   was   above   normal  and  the  most  seen  since  2013.  

• A  cooler  East:   It  will  be  cooler  than  normal  and  than  last  year   in  the  eastern  half  of   the  country  early   in  the  week,  and  then  warmer  temperatures  will  return.  The  East  Coast  will  stay  cooler  than  last  year.  

• A  little  rain  must  fall:  Rainfall  will  be  prevalent  across  the  western   half   of   the   country   as   several   systems   bring  showers   and   thunderstorms   from   the   Pacific   Northwest  through   the  Central   Plains.   Showers   and   storms  will   also  dot  the  Deep  South  throughout  the  week.  

IMPACT  ON  RETAIL:  Sunglasses  +1%    

IMPACT  ON  RETAIL:  Shorts  +1%  

    2

May 10, 2016

DEBORAH  WEINSWIG,  MANAGING  DIRECTOR–HEAD  OF  GLOBAL  RETAIL  &  TECHNOLOGY  DEBORAHWEINSWIG@FUNG1937.COM    US:  917.655.6790    HK:  852.6119.1779    CN:  86.186.1420.3016  Copyright  ©  2016  The  Fung  Group.  All  rights  reserved.  

EUROPE WEEKLY WEATHER OUTLOOK • May  8–14:  Dry  and  Warm  in  the  North,  Rainy  and  Cool  in  the  South.  • May  15–21:  Back  to  Cool  and  Becoming  Wetter.  

EUROPE:  WEEK  OF  MAY  8–14  

Retail   implications:   Seasonal   demand   will   be   focused   in   the  North,  where  it  will  be  warmer  and  dryer,  and  hampered  in  the  wetter,  cooler  South.  

• Dry  and  warm  North:  High  pressure  will  dominate  the  North  for   much   of   the   week,   bringing   mostly   sunny   and   warm  weather.   Signs   of   cooling   will   push   into   the   far   North   on  Friday.  

• Rainy   and   cool   South:  A  storm   track  will  persist  across   the  South,   keeping   the   region   cool   and   wet.   Warmer  temperatures  will  return  to  the  Southeast  late  in  the  week.  

EUROPE:  WEEK  OF  MAY  15–21  

Retail   implications:   Seasonal   demand  will   be   hampered   again,  with  Scandinavia  and  Turkey  being  the  only  exceptions.  

• Back   to   cool:   Seasonable   to   cooler-­‐than-­‐normal  temperatures   will   spread   across   Europe   once   again,   while  Scandinavia  and  Turkey  will  stay  warmer.  

• Becoming  wetter:  Rain  will  fall  across  the  East  early,  then  a  front   will   sweep   from   west   to   east,   bringing   rain   to   most  areas.  

IMPACT  ON  RETAIL:  Ice  Cream  (Poland)  Umbrellas  (Spain)  

IMPACT  ON  RETAIL:  Jumpers  (Portugal)  Soup  (Bulgaria)    

    3

May 10, 2016

DEBORAH  WEINSWIG,  MANAGING  DIRECTOR–HEAD  OF  GLOBAL  RETAIL  &  TECHNOLOGY  DEBORAHWEINSWIG@FUNG1937.COM    US:  917.655.6790    HK:  852.6119.1779    CN:  86.186.1420.3016  Copyright  ©  2016  The  Fung  Group.  All  rights  reserved.  

 Deborah  Weinswig,  CPA  Managing  Director  Fung  Global  Retail  &  Technology  New  York:  917.655.6790    Hong  Kong:  852.6119.1779  China:  86.186.1420.3016  deborahweinswig@fung1937.com    Aragorn  Ho  Research  Associate  

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