Variabilidad Climática II: Imapactos regionales de ENSOSeminario - Taller Clima de Sud América...

Centro Internacional para la Investigación del Fenómeno de El Niño

I FORO DE PERSPECTIVAS CLIMÁTICAS PARA SUDAMÉRICA Guayaquil - Ecuador, 01 al 04 de Octubre 2012

Seminario - Taller Clima de Sud América

Variabilidad Climática II: Imapactos regionales de ENSO

Relator: Dr. René D. Garreaud www.dgf.uchile.cl/rene

Departamento de Geofísica Universidad de Chile

Interannual Precipitation Variability (UdW data)

Which regions exhibit large year-to-year variability?

Leadings modes of interannual (and longer) of atmospheric variability: ENSO – PDO(?) - AAO

Leadings modes of interannual (and longer) of atmospheric variability: ENSO – PDO(?) - AAO

Annual mean Precip/SAT regressed upon index of large-scale modes (50 years of data)

ENSO impacts on South America

Seasonal correlation between Precip/SAT and Multivariate ENSO Index (50 years of data)

Full references in Garreaud et al. 2009

Stronger upper- Level ST Jet

Climo. Storm Track

EN years Storm Track

H

Blocking High

Weakened ST High

H

Drier/Warmer DJF

Wetter-OND

Wetter-JJA

Drier-DJF

Colder

Interannual variability - Major ENSO impacts

Wetter-JFMA

Warmer - DJF

ENSO-related regional impacts

• Northern South America • Coastal Ecuador and Perú • Central Andes • Subtropical SA

David B. Enfield , Sang-Ki Lee , Chunzai Wang

Progress In Oceanography Volume 70, Issues 2?4 2006 346 - 365

Climo

ENSO

Horel & Cornejo-Garrido 1986

Summer-Fall Precip: Average ∼ 0 EN ∼ 1000 – 4000 mm! Where? How come?

Horel & Cornejo-Garrido 1986

“the influx of lower-tropospheric air from the Pacific Ocean is critical in producing the heavy rains during the El Niño period. This is in contrast to a relatively widely-held belief in the region that the moisture source is from the Amazon Basin”

SYNOPTIC AND SPATIAL VARIABILITY OF THE RAINFALL ALONG THE NORTHERN PERUVIAN COAST DURING THE 1997-8 EL NIñO EVENT Michael W. Douglas1, Malaquias Peña2, Norma Ordinola3, Luis Flores3, Joshua Boustead4, and Jose Luis Santos5.

Central Andes Rainfall

* Closely tied to moisture availability * Wind aloft controls the transport of moisture towards the Altiplano

Interannual Variability Central Andes (Altiplano Region)

Interannual Variability

Climo

EN-LN

Choco Jet

Rutllant and Fuenzalida 1991: Synoptic explanation of increased CCh precipitation during EN years: blocking anticyclone shifts northward storm track and embedded frontal

systems

Background

Every EN/LN is different and it is superimposed on a slightly different background state. That produce changes in the

teleconnection patterns even in current climate…

ENSO-PDO interference

Non-ENSO-related regional impacts

• AAO impacts on southern SA •Amazon basin • NE Brazil

Annual mean Precip/SAT regressed upon index of large-scale modes (50 years of data)

Relationship between the southern annular mode and southern hemisphere atmospheric systems Michelle Simões Reboita; Tércio Ambrizzi; Rosmeri Porfírio da Rocha

Silvestri and Vera 2005

-0,80

-0,60

-0,40

-0,20

0,00

0,20

0,40

25 30 35 40 45 50 55SOIAAOSEP-AAO

Quintana & Aceituno 2012

Rojas et al. 2013

+ +

+

+ +

−

−

−

−

SE

B

WAT

Rainfall anomalies SST anomalies

−

−

+

+

−

−

Rainfall NE Brazil related to tropical Atlantic dipole

Un caso que trajo atención internacional: La sequia Amazónica del 2005

Condiciones de gran escala durante 4 sequias en Amazonía SST Z850

Intraseasonal variability in South America and MJO impacts

The Madden Julian Oscillation: Leading mode in the western tropical Pacific at intraseasonal timescales (30-60 days)

Observación y predicción de la OMJ

Índices diarios de la OMJ del Centro de Predicción Climática (CPC) del Servicio Meteorológico Nacional (NWS) de la NOAA (EE.UU.)

http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/precip/ CWlink/MJO/mjo.shtml http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/ precip/CWlink/MJO/index.primjo.html

Predicciones experimentales de OMJ del Laboratorio de Investigación del Sistema Terrestre (Earth System Research Laboratory) de la NOAA

http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/mjo/

Pronósticos de variabilidad tropical (OMJ y ondas ecuatoriales) de la Oficina Australiana de Meteorología (Australian Bureau of Meteorology)

http://cawcr.gov.au/staff/mwheeler/maproom/RMM/ http://cawcr.gov.au/staff/mwheeler/maproom/OLR_modes/

Pronósticos de la OMJ de Paul Roundy, Universidad Estatal de Nueva York en Albany (State University of New York, SUNY, Albany)

http://www.atmos.albany.edu/facstaff/ roundy/waves/

Pronósticos de la OMJ de Barney Love y Adrian Matthews, Universidad de East Anglia

http://envam1.env.uea.ac.uk/ mjo_forecast.html

The SESA dipole

Vertically integrated water vapor flux & precipitation for + and - phase