"Bosques y Cambio Climático"

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Vicente Barros23 de noviembre 2011

Buenos Aires

BOSQUES Y

CAMBIO CLIMÁTICO

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Fate of Anthropogenic CO2 Emissions (2000-2008)

1,4 PgC y-1

+7,7 PgC y-1

2,7 PgC y-1

30%

4,1 PgC y-1

45%

25%2, 3 PgC y-1

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EL CICLO GEOQUÍMICO DEL CARBONO

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EXTINCIÓN DE ESPECIES YO ECOSISTEMASTOS EN LA SEGUNDA MITAD DEL

CRISIS DEL AGUA

PROPAGACIÓN DE VECTORES Y ENFERMEDADES

PÉRDIDA DE TIERRA POR AUMENTO DEL NIVEL DEL MAR

MAYOR IMPACTO EN PAISES EN DESARROLLO

AUMENTO DE CONFLICTIVIDAD

IMPACTOS MUCHO MAS IMPORTANTES CON MAS DE 2 � C DE CALENTAMIENTO

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GRAN PELIGRO DE QUE LA BIOSFERA DEJE DE SER UN SUMIDERO DE CARBONO

IMPACTOS MUCHO MAS IMPORTANTES CON MAS DE 2 � C DE CALENTAMIENTO

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LA MITIGACION DEL LA MITIGACION DEL CAMBIO CLIMCAMBIO CLIMÁÁTICOTICO

REQUIERE REQUIERE REDUCIR ELREDUCIR EL

CONSUMO DE HIDROCARBUROSCONSUMO DE HIDROCARBUROS

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PETROLEO:

DEMANDA y OFERTABrecha creciente (AIE)

Quien lo tiene y quien lo consume

Inestabilidad económica

Conflicto políticoLa paz

EL CAMBIO CLIMÁTICO

ES UN CONDICIONANTE DE

LA SOLUCIÓN A LA CRISIS

ENERGÉTICA GLOBAL

Energía renovable

Versus Carbón

Alineamientos de las grandes potencias económicas

Respuesta en marcha:

1. Independencia energética

2. Innovación y liderazgo tecnológico

3. Generación de empleo calificado

COMO NO SUPERAR LOS 2°C

TEMAS EN DURBAN:

PROTOCOLO DE KIOTO

COMPROMISOS DE LARGO PLAZO

FONDOS PARA ADAPTACION Y MITIGACION

REDD

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EL CAMBIO CLIMÁTICO SE MANIFIESTA ANTES EN LOS EXTREMOS

The IPCC Special Report on Managing the Risksof Extreme Events and Disasters to Advance

Climate Change Adaptation

sample

A changing climate leads to changes in extreme weather and climate events

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Socioeconomic development interacts with natural climate variations and human-caused climate change to influence disaster risk

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Vulnerability:

the predisposition of a person or group to be adversely affected

Disaster Risk:

the likelihood of severe alterations in the normal functioning of a community or society due to weather or climate events interacting with vulnerable social conditions

Disaster risk management and climate change adaptation can influence the degree to which extreme events translate into impacts and disasters

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Increasing vulnerability, exposure, or severity and frequency of climate events increases disaster risk

Pakistan floods, 20106 million left homeless

Increasing exposure of people and assets has been the major cause of changes in disaster losses

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From 1970-2008, over 95% of natural-disaster-related deaths occurred indeveloping countries

Fatalities are higher in developing countries

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Climate models project more frequent hot days throughout the 21st century

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In many regions, the time between “20-year” (unusually) warm days will decrease

The most effective strategies offer development benefits in the relatively near term and reduce vulnerability over the longer term

There are strategies that can help manage disaster risk now and also help improve people’s livelihoods and well-being

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IPCC Assessment Reports: The Process

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