Mitsubishi 20161109 v5

05/01/2023 Understanding Cognitive Systems 1

Cognition-as-a-Service (CaaS):

A Service Science Perspective

Jim Spohrer (IBM)Tokyo, Japan; November 9, 2016

Mitsubishihttp://www.slideshare.net/spohrer/Mitsubishi-20161109-v5

05/01/2023 Understanding Cognitive Systems 2

AI Magazine: Cognition as a Service

05/01/2023 © IBM 2015, IBM Upward University Programs Worldwide accelerating regional development

3

I have…

Have you noticed how the building blocks just keep getting better?

05/01/2023 © IBM 2015, IBM Upward University Programs Worldwide accelerating regional development

4

Learning to program:My first program

Early Computer Science Class:Watson Center at Columbia 1945

Jim Spohrer’s First Program 1972

05/01/2023 5© IBM UPWard 2016

Fast Forward 2016: Consider this…

05/01/2023 6

Microsoft CaptionBot June 19, 2016

© IBM UPWard 2016

05/01/2023 7

Microsoft CaptionBot June 20, 2016

© IBM UPWard 2016

05/01/2023 8

IBM Image Tagging

© IBM UPWard 2016

05/01/2023 © IBM 2015, IBM Upward University Programs Worldwide accelerating regional development

9

Learning to program:My first program

Early Computer Science Class:Watson Center at Columbia 1945

Jim Spohrer’s First Program 1972

05/01/2023 © IBM 2015, IBM Upward University Programs Worldwide accelerating regional development

10

What exists in 2016?

360,000 100,000 120,000 60,000 150,000

05/01/2023 Understanding Cognitive Systems 11

Business Value

05/01/2023 12

What is Industry 4.0?

© IBM UPWard 2016

05/01/2023 13

History of the idea: Mirror Worlds

© IBM UPWard 2016

05/01/2023 14© IBM UPWard 2016

Why is this relevant?

05/01/2023 15

I am still very skeptical… but tell me more….

© IBM UPWard 2016

05/01/2023 16© IBM UPWard 2016

05/01/2023 17

Managers: Courage Required….

© IBM UPWard 2016

05/01/2023 18

Talent required, but…

© IBM UPWard 2016

05/01/2023 19

Industry 4.0

© IBM UPWard 2016

05/01/2023 20

CyberPhysical Systems?

© IBM UPWard 2016

05/01/2023 21

Industry 4.0

© IBM UPWard 2016

05/01/2023 22© IBM UPWard 2016

05/01/2023 23© IBM UPWard 2016

Yesterday: Servitization• Rolls Royce: “Power By The Hour”

Tomorrow: Servitization• Start with any traditional product that is sold to customers• Make the product part of a smart/wise service system

• Instrument it (sensors) – Internet of Things/Everything• Set-up an intelligent operation center to monitor all products’ performance across their

life-cycles• Use big data analytics to determine how to improve product performance, efficiency,

maintenance, etc.• Offer customer the “product-performance-as-a-service” with financing/Internet of Service• Customer benefits from cost-savings, predictability• Provider benefits margin-improvements, predictability

• Every product becomes a platform technology (a vehicle for service innovation) for innovative university startups

Vision: MMaaRRSS• Modular Manufacturing as a Regional Recirculation Service System• “I am the stuff that will be made into product X for customer Y.”• Stuff = Material, Energy, and Information Flows • Minimize transport costs (for products and waste)

• The Vision: Circular Economy (~4 minutes)

05/01/2023 Understanding Cognitive Systems 27

Circular Economy: Product to Service Thinking

“The best way to predict the future is to inspire the next generation of students to build it better”

Digital Natives Transportation Water Manufacturing

Energy Construction ICT Retail

Finance Healthcare Education Government

05/01/2023 Understanding Cognitive Systems 29

Intelligence Building Blocks

• Augmented• Science (Brains)• Design (People)• Business (Value)• Societal (Impact)• Interdisciplinary

• Artificial• Learning• Perception• Reasoning• Interaction• Knowledge

05/01/2023 30

1955 1975 1995 2015 2035 2055

Can better cognition-as-a-service help us be wiser?

Cognitive Mediator (2035): Tool, Assistant, Collaborator, Coach, Mediator

05/01/2023 31

How fast is Artificial Intelligence approaching?

What might it look like?

32

Computing: Then, Now, Projected

05/01/2023

2035

2055

05/01/2023 © IBM 2015, IBM Upward University Programs Worldwide accelerating regional development

33

05/01/2023 © IBM 2015, IBM Upward University Programs Worldwide accelerating regional development

34

05/01/2023 35

Courses• 2015

• “How to build a cognitive system for Q&A task.”• 9 months to 40% question answering accuracy• 1-2 years for 90% accuracy, which questions to reject

• 2025• “How to use a cognitive system to be a better professional X.”• Tools to build a student level Q&A from textbook in 1 week

• 2035• “How to use your cognitive mediator to build a startup.”• Tools to build faculty level Q&A for textbook in one day• Cognitive mediator knows a person better than they know themselves

• 2055• “How to manage your workforce of digital workers.”• Most people have 100 digital workers.

05/01/2023 Understanding Cognitive Systems 36

Reality 2.0 Service Platform: Smart to Wise?

Service Platform

CM2

P2

CM1

P1

100x

100x 100x

“The best way to predict the future is to inspire the next generation of students to build it better”

Digital Natives Transportation Water Manufacturing

Energy Construction ICT Retail

Finance Healthcare Education Government

05/01/2023 Understanding Cognitive Systems 38

Progression: Types and Models

Models (columns)Types (rows)

Task & World Model/Planning & Decisions

Self Model/Capacity & Limits

User Model/Episodic Memory

Institutions Model/Trust & Social Acts

Tool + - - -

Assistant ++ + - -

Collaborator +++ ++ + -

Coach ++++ +++ ++ +

Mediator +++++ ++++ +++ ++

tool

assistant

collaborator

coach

mediator

05/01/2023 Understanding Cognitive Systems 39

Build: 10 million minutes of experience

05/01/2023 Understanding Cognitive Systems 40

Build: 2 million minutes of experience

05/01/2023 Understanding Cognitive Systems 41

Value Migration: Hardware < Software < Data < Experience < Transformation

05/01/2023 Understanding Cognitive Systems 42

Moshe Vardi (Rice)

05/01/2023 Understanding Cognitive Systems 43

Alexander Braun (CC)

05/01/2023 Understanding Cognitive Systems 44

Alexander Braun (CC)

05/01/2023 Understanding Cognitive Systems 45

Thomas Friedman• “We are now standing at

an ethical intersection we have never stood at before as a species,” Friedman explained as he started to wind down his talk. “At the end of World War II, one country could kill all of us. Now, one person can kill all of us.”

05/01/2023 46

Come visit IBM Research – Almaden in San Jose, CA USA – monthly

university day!

05/01/2023 Understanding Cognitive Systems 47

Socio-Technical Systems Design

Test-beds

05/01/2023 © IBM 2015, IBM Upward University Programs Worldwide accelerating regional development

48

In Summary

“A service scienceperspective considersthe evolving ecology of service system entities, their value co-creation andcapability co-elevationinteractions, and their capabilities, constraints,rights, and responsibilities.”

Cognitive SystemsEntities

Service SystemsEntities With

CognitiveMediators

Add Rights &Responsibilities

05/01/2023 49

Today’s Talk• Tech Topics • Perspectives• Opportunities• Challenges

© IBM UPWard 2016

05/01/2023 © IBM 2015, IBM Upward University Programs Worldwide accelerating regional development

50

Physics Chemistry Biology

Neuroscience Psychology ArtificialIntelligence

Engineering Management PublicPolicy

Education Design Humanities

Natural Systems

Cognitive Systems

Service Systems

05/01/2023 © IBM 2015, IBM Upward University Programs Worldwide accelerating regional development

51

Brief History of AI

• 1956 – Dartmouth Conference• 1956 – 1981 Micro-Worlds• 1981 – Japanese 5th Generation• 1988 – Expert Systems Peak• 1990 – AI Winter• 1997 – Deep Blue• 1997 – 2011 Real-World• 2011 – Jeopardy! & SIRI• 2013 – Cognitive Systems Institute• 2014 – Watson Business Unit &• True North Brain Chip• 2015 – “Cognition as a Service”

on IBM Bluemix

05/01/2023 Understanding Cognitive Systems 52

Definitions: Types of Cognitive System Entities(symbol and pattern processing systems)• Socio-Technical (Organization-based)

• Businesses• Cities• Nations

• Biological (Brain-based)• People• Animals

• Technological (Computation-based)• Embodied (Robot, Car, Device)• Virtual (Local, Cloud)

MachineLearning

NaturalLanguageProcessing

HighPerformanceComputing

KnowledgeRepresentationand Reasoning

QuestionAnswering

UnstructuredInformation

05/01/2023 Understanding Cognitive Systems 54

05/01/2023 Understanding Cognitive Systems 55

Design (Books)

05/01/2023 Understanding Cognitive Systems 56

SocietalImplications

05/01/2023 Future of AI 57

Interdisciplinary• Disciplines: Breadth of disciplines to

tackle issues:• Psychology and cognitive science,

philosophy, design and art, public policy and management, law and regulations

• Systems: Professional associations to tackle industry and system issues, including novice to expert progression on tasks• Socio-technical system design loop

and smart service systems

05/01/2023 Understanding Cognitive Systems 58

IBM Cognitive Build: Experiment• Tool• Assistant• Collaborator• Coach• Mediator

05/01/2023 Understanding Cognitive Systems 59

Next generation cognitive curriculum

05/01/2023 © IBM 2015, IBM Upward University Programs Worldwide accelerating regional development

60

I have…

Have you noticed how the building blocks just keep getting better?

05/01/2023 61

IBM Cloud Bluemix: Watson APIs are growing…

© IBM UPWard 2016

So far (June 2016), 100,000 faculty and students globally given access

05/01/2023 62© IBM UPWard 2016

05/01/2023 © IBM 2015, IBM Upward University Programs Worldwide accelerating regional development 63

05/01/2023 Understanding Cognitive Systems 64

Build: 10 million minutes of experience

05/01/2023 Understanding Cognitive Systems 65

Build: 2 million minutes of experience

05/01/2023 Understanding Cognitive Systems 66

Books

05/01/2023 © IBM 2015, IBM Upward University Programs Worldwide accelerating regional development

67

Dedication: Douglas C. EngelbartFather of the mouse and augmentation theory

05/01/2023 68

But this stuff is still really hard…

© IBM UPWard 2016

05/01/2023 Understanding Cognitive Systems 69

Policies

05/01/2023 Understanding Cognitive Systems 70

Understand them…

05/01/2023 71© IBM UPWard 2016

What might Reality 2.0 look like?