Mongo Baseball .NET

MongoBaseball.NetDavid Hoerster

2014

About Me C# MVP (Since April 2011)

Sr. Director of Web Solutions at RGP

Conference Director for Pittsburgh TechFest

Co-Founder of BrainCredits (braincredits.com)

Past President of Pittsburgh .NET Users Group and organizer of recent Pittsburgh Code Camps and other Tech Events

Twitter - @DavidHoerster

Blog – http://geekswithblogs.net/DavidHoerster

Email – david@agileways.com

Best of Both Worlds

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Assumptions Basic understanding of document databases, like Mongo

Familiarity of querying (non-aggregate pipeline) in Mongo

General understanding of baseball

Baseball Statistics Basics of AVG, OBP, ERA have been around

Underground of advanced statistics been growing since early 70s Bill James is probably most well known

Society for American Baseball Research (SABR) Fosters the research of baseball statistical history

Stats like wOBA, wRAA, WAR, DIPS, NERD and more Lends itself to computer modeling and big data

Basic Mongo Document database

A “NoSQL” solution

Wide range of querying and manipulation capabilities

Querying Mongo Data Issue a JSON document

find and findOne like LINQ Select and First/Single methods

Basic cursor functionality (think DataReader)

Mongo C# Driver Download as a NuGet package

Actively worked on and contributed to

There is an “official” client, along with several community clients

Mongo’s Aggregation Pipeline MongoDB’s data aggregation solution

Modeled on the concept of data processing pipelines

Operations are performed in stages Results from one stage “piped” to the next stage

$match

$project

$sort

Aggregation Pipeline Number of operations available

$group, $match, $project, $sort, $limit, $skip, $redact, $out, …

Essentially replaces the older mapReduce functionality Aggregation Pipeline provides better performance, generally mapReduce is more flexible

Aggregation combines a number of operations in order to produce a result set

Aggregation Pipeline Maximum size of a returned document is 16 MB

Aggregation Pipeline now returns results using cursor (as of 2.6)

Each stage of a pipeline has a maximum limit of 100MB of RAM Enable allowDiskUse in order to write to disk and avoid this limitation

MongoDB will also optimize the pipeline, if possible

Simple Single Purpose Op Count

Simple Projection Batting Average (Hits / At Bats)

Simple Projection Batting Average

Simple Projection Batting Average in C#

LINQ to Mongo Part of Mongo C# Driver

Implements find and findOne

Other grouping and projecting done client-side

Do you want all that data before manipulating it?

Top 25 Batting Average in 2013 Add a $match pipeline operation

Top 25 Batting Average in 2013 Now need to sort

Top 25 Batting Average in 2013 But wait…we have incorrect results for top Batting Average

Need to enhance $match to include those with 3.1 PA for 162 games

Top 25 Batting Average in 2013 In C# Using LINQ

But… Not truly aggregation pipeline in C#

Done on client, not server

Materialize on client with LINQ

Must use BsonDocument for aggregation pipeline

Yikes!

Aggregation Pipeline in C# Creating the $match BsonDocument

var match = new BsonDocument{ {"$match", new BsonDocument{ {"Year", 2013}, {"AtBats", new BsonDocument{ {"$gte", 502} }} }} };

Aggregation Pipeline in C# Create the $project operation

var project = new BsonDocument { {"$project", new BsonDocument{ {"PlayerId", 1}, {"Year", 1}, {"TeamId", 1}, {"AVG", new BsonDocument{ {"$cond", new BsonDocument{ {"if", new BsonDocument{ {"$eq", new BsonArray{"$AtBats", "0"}} }}, {"then", 0}, {"else", new BsonDocument{ {"$divide", new BsonArray{"$Hits", "$AtBats"}} }} }} }} }} };

Aggregation Pipeline in C# Create the $sort and $limit operations and then combine them all in an

Array var sort = new BsonDocument{ {"$sort", new BsonDocument{ {"AVG", -1} } } };

var limit = new BsonDocument{ {"$limit", 25} };

return new[] { match, project, sort, limit };

Aggregation Pipeline in C# All the { } with BsonDocument and BsonArray reminds me of…

On Base Percentage (OBP)

A measure of how often a batter reaches base for any reason other than a fielding error, fielder's choice, dropped/uncaught third strike, fielder's obstruction, or catcher's interference.

- Wikipedia (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/On-base_percentage)

Usually a better measure of batter’s performance than straight average

(H + BB + HBP) / (AB + BB + HBP + SF)

On Base Percentage (OBP)(Hits + BB + HBP) / (AB + BB + HBP + SF)db.batting.aggregate([ {$match: { Year: 2013, AtBats: {$gte: 502} }}, {$project: { PlayerId: 1, Year: 1, TeamId: 1, OBP: { $cond: { if: {$eq: ["$AtBats", 0] }, then: 0, else: { $divide: [ {$add:["$Hits","$BaseOnBalls","$HitByPitch"]}, {$add:["$AtBats","$BaseOnBalls","$HitByPitch","$SacrificeFlies"]} ]} }} }}, {$sort: {OBP: -1}}, {$limit: 25}])

On Base Percentage (OBP)

$match

$project

$sort

$limit

Runs Created (Player)

Early SABRmetric type of stat, invented by Bill James

With regard to an offensive player, the first key question is how many runs have resulted from what he has done with the bat and on the basepaths. Willie McCovey hit .270 in his career, with 353 doubles, 46 triples, 521 home runs and 1,345 walks -- but his job was not to hit doubles, nor to hit singles, nor to hit triples, nor to draw walks or even hit home runs, but rather to put runs on the scoreboard. How many runs resulted from all of these things?

- Bill James (James, Bill (1985). The Bill James Historical Baseball Abstract (1st ed.), pp. 273-4. Villard. ISBN 0-394-53713-0)

((H + BB) x TB) / (AB + BB)

Aggregated across a team, RC is usually within 5% of a team’s actual runs

Runs Created (Player)(Hits + Walks) * Total Bases / (At Bats + Walks)

db.batting.aggregate([ {$match: {Year:2013, AtBats:{$gte:502}}}, {$project: { PlayerId: 1, Year: 1, TeamId: 1, RC: { $divide: [ {$multiply: [ {$add: ["$Hits","$BaseOnBalls"]}, {$add: ["$Hits","$Doubles","$Triples","$Triples",

"$HomeRuns","$HomeRuns","$HomeRuns"] }]},

{ $add: ["$AtBats","$BaseOnBalls"] }] } }}, {$sort: {RC:-1}}, {$limit: 25}])

Runs Created (Player)

$match

$project

$sort

$limit

Runs Created (Team)db.batting.aggregate([ {$match: {Year:2013}}, {$group: { _id: "$TeamId", Hits: {$sum: "$Hits"}, Walks: {$sum: "$BaseOnBalls"}, Doubles: {$sum: "$Doubles"}, Triples: {$sum: "$Triples"}, HR: {$sum: "$HomeRuns"}, AtBats: {$sum: "$AtBats"} }}, {$project: { RC: { $divide: [ {$multiply: [ {$add: ["$Hits","$Walks"]}, {$add: ["$Hits","$Doubles","$Triples","$Triples","$HR","$HR","$HR"] } ]}, { $add: ["$AtBats","$Walks"] }] } }}, {$sort: {RC: -1}}])

Runs Created (Team)

$match

$group

$project

$sort

Baseball Salaries Over Time Babe Ruth highest paid player in 20’s ($80K in ‘30/’31)

Babe and Ty Cobb were highest paid in 1920 at $20K

Joe DiMaggio highest paid in 1950 ($100K)

Nolan Ryan made $1M in 1980 (1st time)

Albert Belle made $10M in 1997 In 1999, made ~$12M (more than entire Pirates payroll)

2001 – ARod made $22M

2009 – ARod made $33M

Cost Per Base (CPB) Hoerster copyrighted statistic

Compares the value each base produced by a hitter

Who are the most expensive players?

Cost Per Base (CPB) Takes total bases

Hits + Doubles + (Triples x 2) + (HR x 3) + SB + BB + HBP – CS

Divides salary into it

Definitely not predictive More of a value statistic

Weighted On Base Average

Is a statistic, created by Tom Tango and based on linear regression, designed to measure a player's overall offensive contributions per plate appearance.

- Wikipedia (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Weighted_on-base_average)

Weighs each component of offensive with a factor

((wBB*BB)+(wHBP*HBP)+(wH*Hits)+(w2B*2B)+(w3B*3B)+(wHR*HR)+(wSB*SB)+(wCS*CS))

(AB+BB+HBP+SF-IBB)

Weighted On Base Averagevar woba = db.WOBALookup.findOne({_id:2013});

db.batting.aggregate([ {$match: {Year: woba._id}}, {$redact: { $cond: { if: { $gte: ["$AtBats",502] }, then: "$$KEEP", else: "$$PRUNE“ } }}, {$project: { Year: 1, PlayerId: 1, TeamId: 1, WOBA: { $divide: [ {$add: [{$multiply:[woba.wBB,"$BaseOnBalls"]}, {$multiply:[woba.wHBP,"$HitByPitch"]}, {$multiply:[woba.w1B,"$Hits"]}, {$multiply:[woba.w2B,"$Doubles"]}, {$multiply:[woba.w3B,"$Triples"]}, {$multiply:[woba.wHR,"$HomeRuns"]}, {$multiply:[woba.runSB,"$StolenBases"]}, {$multiply:[woba.runCS,"$CaughtStealing"]} ]}, {$add: "]}]} ] } }}, {$limit:25}, {$sort: {WOBA:-1}}, {$out: "2013TopWOBA"}])

Weighted On Base Average$match

$redact

$project

$limit

$sort

$out

wOBA_Factors

2013TopWOBA

Weighted Runs Above Average Calculates, on average, how many more runs a player generates than the

average player in the league

Uses wOBA as a primary factor in calculation

This then gets figured in for the over WAR of a player

Good description here:http://www.baseball-reference.com/about/war_explained_wraa.shtml

Weighted Runs Above Average

var woba = db.WOBALookup.findOne({_id:2013});

db.TopWOBA2013.aggregate([ {$match: {Year: woba._id}}, {$project: { Year: 1, PlayerId: 1, TeamId: 1, wRAA: { $multiply: [ {$divide: [{$subtract: ["$WOBA",woba.wOBA]}, woba.wOBAScale]}, {$add: ["$AtBats","$BaseOnBalls","$HitByPitch",

"$SacrificeFlies","$SacrificeHits"]} ] } }}, {$sort: { wRAA: -1 }}, {$out: 'TopWRAA013'}]);

Weighted Runs Above Average

$match$projec

t$sort

$out

wOBA_Factors

'TopWRAA013

Wrapping Up Much of aggregate pipeline in Mongo can be done with LINQ

But it will be client-side, not in Mongo!

Take advantage of $out for intermediary tables during processing Stage your operations Maybe intermediary tables can be reused for other calcs

$group id’s can be multi-valued Ends up as a sub-document and must be referenced accordingly

Resources Sean Lahman’s Baseball Database

http://seanlahman.com/baseball-archive/statistics/

Society for American Baseball Researchhttp://sabr.org/

wOBA Annual Factorshttp://www.beyondtheboxscore.com/2011/1/4/1912914/custom-woba-and-linear-weights-through-2010-baseball-databank-data

Tom Tango’s Bloghttp://espn.go.com/blog/statsinfo/tag/_/name/tom-tango

Annual Salary Leaders, 1874 – 2012http://sabr.org/research/mlbs-annual-salary-leaders-1874-2012