1. - , ?- , ()( KAIST ) 9 24 . , ?, . , " " " ". . , 1 , . . - -: 2013 9 24() 14:00 16:00 : (http://dreamcamp.co/location, : , ? : () 14:00 14:1014:4015:40 15:50 15:55 1 14:10 14:4015:4015:50 15:55 16:00 Tel.02-2030-9300) () -

2. 2009 . . . , , . . . . , . . . . . 1.0 , 2.0 . IT . 5 . . . . . . . SNS . (Think Network) . . . , , , , , . 1 KIST, , , , 2 , . Copyright()(KCERN). All rights reserved. 3. Open Think Network 1. , 2. 3. OSMU(One Source Multi Use) 1), 2)/ weekly Copyright()(KCERN). All rights reserved. 4. () Copyright()(KCERN). All rights reserved. 5. Lee Min HwaLee Min Hwa 6. Lee Min Hwa Lee Min Hwa e Mi Hw 7. :4%60%:6%54%Lee Min Hwa100%90%80% R = 0.3326 70%60%50%40%30%20% R = 0.5546 10%0% 010,00020,00030,00040,00050,00060,000GDP per capita, in purchasing power parities (PPP) 6 8. Lee Min Hwa7. 40.. . (,:, 2006)(:, 2010) Lee Min Hwa 9. 72.3(1977) 6(2001)53.2(2000) 18(2007)Lee Min HwaLee Min Hwa 10. Lee Min Hwa 11. ?? Slack()Lee Min Hwa 12. Lee Min Hwa 13. 50,000 14. -,-----Lee Min Hwa 15. Q)-,?Lee Min Hwa+ ++ -1. 2. 3.Lee Min Hwa 16. ,),70 , 6 , 40%GDP (2012)()) (KIBO, 0.5%) :60 3000 (2012)Lee Min Hwa 17. 20 11571% 549% 10133%2(60%)Lee Min Hwa 18. : 20139:1000: :3.10%P : Lee Min Hwa?Lee Min Hwa 19. ?Lee Min Hwa?Lee Min Hwa 20. ?Lee Min Hwa?Lee Min Hwa 21. ?Lee Min Hwa-69.4% 10.5%6.62.7 .,4-. -(,) 29.5%65.6%, 2.2 Lee Min Hwa 22. ( ,=** =): : : 38: : Lee Min Hwa 23. (2012,)(2012,)(2011) 2012 IRR (2013,) [1](2012, () 5) Lee Min Hwa39( ): 2000 80.7%, 10 ( ): 34.3%5,335 64.1%, 12 55 58.9%.64%, 10.Lee Min Hwa 24. Auto Regression (K=6)55 ~15 .1522, . 1 ~12100, 1540 .20 Lee Min Hwa2013,6574, 200910,000( =8,000 , 21.77%33.50%, 201033.29%.8,000 ) .+ Lee Min Hwa 25. ( ) ( 33.33% (169) 27.55% ( ) )(913121.77% ()101( ) )()115 9269255417039Lee Min Hwa44Lee Min Hwa 26. 45Lee Min Hwa46Lee Min Hwa 27. 3000Lee Min Hwa50Lee Min Hwa 28. As Is 30001(3000),?To Be ,(),()Lee Min Hwa3000Upside().Lee Min Hwa 29. Lee Min Hwa53(++),Lee Min Hwa 30. 423000 (0.3%)755Lee Min Hwa 31. Lee Min Hwa 32. Cloud FRFast Track-2.8 Lee Min Hwa 33. (,)3Upside70Lee Min Hwa 2013 ()(KCERN). All Rights Reserved.Lee Min Hwa 34. 2013()(Open Forum) --12013.09.2422013.10.223 43.02013.11.26 2013.12.17Lee Min Hwa 35. [],(1)2013729. . . . . 3%. 35.12000 .8000,. 10, 30.25% 14,706. . , 0.5% 40 300060 3000. .. .Lee Min Hwa 36. [],(2)2013730. .. . 3..... .Lee Min Hwa[]2013819..KTX.(negative system) . KTX10030. (Positive System) .1~2%. 3.Lee Min Hwa 37. 1 2013. 9. 24 38. 2013 1 : : () 28 12 3 : : 2013. 9. 4. 2 : 2014. 2. 7. : ( ) : ( ) ( ) ( ) ( ) : ( ) ( ) 39. 1 2 1. 2. 3 1. 2. 4 1. 5 6 1. 2. 14 4 916 16 1732 323640 40 447 528 55[] 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 157 57 58 59 63 64 40. 1 , ( ) , () , , , , , , , ( ) - 1 - 41. 6 2 , () , 2000 OECD - 4% 60% , 6% 54% < (fast21> follower), 3, ,4 2 - 2 - 42. (firstmover), , , ( ) , - 3 - 43. 2 1. . , < :'08 10.9 21.6 51.7 15.8'09 13.0 18.7 51.0 17.31>'10 10.1 18.5 53.2 18.2 '11 9.4 18.2 53.0 19.4'12 9.4 17.8 52.4 20.4 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 81.3 80.0 81.7 82.0 82.6 4.8 4.9 4.3 4.1 4.4 3.0 2.8 3.1 2.0 2.2 2.3 2.8 2.0 1.6 1.7 1.6 2.0 1.5 1.4 1.4 0.7 0.6 1.0 0.9 0.6 6.3 6.9 6.4 8.0 7.1 :- 4 - 44. < 2> , :'08 2.0 1.2 3.7'09 2.2 1.3 3.4'10 2.1 1.3 3.3'11 1.7 1.1 2.4 '08 : ) 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 52,739 48,585 52,587 50,512 53,483 50,855 56,830 60,312 65,110 74,162 3,214 2,747 2,200 1,630 1,507 1,886 1,364 1,143 967 890 (:, 20083.7%20033.3% < 2003 7395> 2004 810 - 5 -2005 923: ) 2007 2008 935 1,119 (2006 848 45. , , , :2003 2,976 6,058 731 153 945 977 4262004 3,114 5.968 722 214 1,010 980 4752005 2,808 6,390 659 466 1,414 882 4692006 3,061 5,967 501 331 1,264 643 3532007 2,947 6,619 406 666 891 648 29513,00513,29314,01112,96813,4072008 2,185 4,115 480 855 332 786 453 1,945 12,270 , > - - - - - - - - 7 - 47. :,- - - - ( ) - - - Second-Chance - 2009 , , . , , (entry-barrier) (exit-barrier) (costofbusinessclosing) < :,9> , , , , , , , , , M&A 2009- 8 - 48. () , (2) 2012 5 < 10> 3 ~ , '87.12 - 3 '87.12~ 3 94.11 (, , ) 3 '94.12 ~ ( ) 99.6 - , , 50 , 3 '99.6 ~ - '00.6 * , , , , , - 9 - 3 49. () '00.6 ~ - 3% '05.9 - ( ), - ( ) '05.9 ~ - ( '11.5 ) - - , 10% '11.6 ~ - '12.4 - ( 2/3 ) - * : '12.5~ (, ) * : 1 (, ) , , : , 2012 5 3 - '05. 3 1 30% A AAA - 10 - 50. , - BBB" A '06. 1 -* AAA AA - * (BBB) (06.2) '06. 2 * Kibo A+ Members (06.5) * (BBB) (06.8) * 50 (07.1) - A A AAA AA ( AA) ( A) '07. 8 - , - (, 3% 5% ) - - * '08. 3 * ( 3% 10%) * 50% - - (A ) '10. 5 '10.10 '12.5~ 1 ~ 2 2 10% ~ 30% 30% , ()- R&D (50%) * A 1/2 ( 5 ) - : - : 1 1. , 2. 3. 30% - 11 - 51. * , 2 1/n : , , ,7201252012. 11 ,2013 2 3 < 5 12> 2012 ( ) ( ) , ( ):,2013 ~ * 1 , 9< 13> 9 , 13> 2013 : , 30% , 30% 2012. 2. 14 < , 1 , 1 2013. 5. 3 - 12 - 52. 2012 6318454,494, 1,595 6,089 (:) 2011 2012 2011 454,868 454,494 173,154 384,314 392,813 170,252 39,720 39,243 26,885 18,489 2,902 3,949 3,949 :176,583 5,012 7,298 1,0003,1502012 . 2012 () (%) () () 2011 2012 384,314 392,813 4.9 4.8 18,924 18,997 7,269 7,298: (2012 ), - 13 - 2011 2012 173,154 181,595 5.1 5.0 8,614 9,316 3,222 3,150 53. , 2012 3,1507,298, 1,000 . , , , - 14 - 54. - - - - - - , - - / - - - - - - - - - - - 15 - 55. 3 1.(1) 2012RawData - 1,972 - - 2011 , - 20 (20 ) (%) (%)120111005.07141998472.38220101849.33151997321.623200923111.71161996331.67420081768.92171995361.83520071467.40181994190.96620061497.56191993231.17720051145.78201992100.51820041095.53211991160.8192003995.02221990241.221020021005.07231989100.51112001934.7224198890.461220001216.1425198760.30- 16 - 56. 131999854.31 ,19722012, (2) , , , , (Net Present Value) NPV(ExpectedValue) x: P( x): c: Q ( x): SC: 20 - 17 -100% 57. 2000 10 64.1%,125,335 5 58.9%80.7%, 1)- , 3 (Simple Interpolation2)) ( ) - - 10 ( ) 20101) 2012. 11, 2012 , 2) (Interpolation): - 18 - 58. - -(Kaplan-Meier Method3)) - 5 64%, 10 34.3% , , - ( ) ( ) ( ) - - : () .- 19 - 59. 2012, 2011, CubicSplineInterpolation4) , - 1~13 , 14 - 13 131.3 , 14 22.1 - (Interpolation) (Regression5)) 4) Cubic Spline interpolation : 3 , 5) (Regression) : , .- 20 - 60. 6 ) ( - 5 5 ~ 15 - 15 22 , .( ) - 20 - , , Cubic spline Interpolation - 2005~2007 17 , 6)6) 1, 2010. 10, , - 21 - 61. - . 10,000 (8,000, ,2,000 )21.77% 7) 6,574 , , 33.50%,33.29%- 2009,2010 8) - 9) = - = + ,1/3 7) 2012, 2012 [1], 8) 2013. 02, 2012 , 9) : + + + + + + + - - - 22 - 62. IR R (InternalR ateofR eturn) - 10), 5 3.12%, 5.25%, 2.5% 5% 60% - 1 - 40% - (NPV)- 0.6 SC : P i ( x) - P i ( x+1) : x - 10) (http://www.bok.or.kr/baserate/baserateList.action?menuNaviId=33)- 23 - 63. , NPV(ExpectedValue) - 20 - : ( ) ( ) ( ) - : ( : Cubic spline Interpolation) -:,33.3% - IRR : 5% - : 112 2 - 20 - : ( ) - : ( :Auto Regression, k=6) - :,33.3% - IRR : 5% - 24 - 64. - : 160 9 - 20 - : 10 ( ) - : ( :Auto Regression, k=6) - : , 21.77% - IRR: 5% - : 39 - 20 (NPV) - - IRR: 5% () 33.3%()169 925.0%(13121.7%(101)) () 115 59270 IRR- 20 - 25 - () 69 254 139 65. - ( ) - (33.3%) 2012, 2011, - 20 - IRR 5% - (33.3%) , 2012, 2011,- S - 26 - 66. - 20 - IRR 5% - ( ) , 2013, 2012, NPV(Expected :xvalue(x)) NPV(ExpectedValue(x)) (NPV(ExpectedValue)) NPV(ExpectedValue)NPV(Expected- 27 -Value(x)) 67. NPV(ExpecdValue(x) 25IRR 5%(33.3%)(())- (ex 20) , - 13 22 ( IRR(5%) . ) - 20 , . , 115 () - - 3 29.1%, 5 17.9%11)11) 1, 2012. 12. , - 28 - 68. - 1 - IRR - IRR 5% - 20% 20 -1,020 - 70 , 170 . . - 29 - 69. : , GEM . . 60% 100 580% . . . . . . (, , 20112013.9.16.) (Start-up JobsAmerica) . , (Needs) . . - 30 - 70. - 31 -M&A 71. 4 1,000 2013 9 4 , 10.5% 89.5%10.589.5 69.4%, - 32 -30.6% 72. 69.430.6- 69.4%, 10.5% 6.6 (, ) 70.2%,- 25.5%,4.3% 2.7 , (, )70.2 25.54.3 45.5%, 10.2%, 12.8%, - 33 -25.9%,3.6%,2.2% 73. 45.5 25.9 12.8 10.2 2.2 17.5%, -3.650.5%, 15.1%, 3.0%, 1.9%12.0%, ( , ) 65.6% , 29.5% , 2.2 50.517.5 15.1 12.0 3.01.9 - 34 - 74. ( ) 9.7%,22.0%, 7.9%,M&A37.2%,18.7%,3.5%, 1% ( ) 37.2 22.0 18.7 9.7 7.9M&A3.5 , 69.4%10.5% 6.6 (, ) 25.5%, 4.3%70.2%,, ( 2.7 ) ( , ) , 65.6% , 29.5% 2.2- 35 - 75. 5 , (Inclusive Finance)Entrepreneurship) (Accessto ( /) ( ) < 19> (SBA) (: , 75% 90% KOTRA 0.3%, 0.1% )- 36 - () OSEO 1/3 OSEO 76. (S B A)12) (SBA) ( ) (Guarantor) 90%75% , 13) . , OS EO 14)OSEO , 50% , 1 (Mezzanine OS EOLoan) ,OS EO1/3 12) KOTRA , , 2009.6.15 13) KOTRA(2009) 14) , " ", , 2012.12- 37 - 77. 15) , 80% , 70%30% , 3 (,2011) 2 , '10 7,94212,514'06 , , , , , 0.1%0.3%, , , , , , 15)(2012)- 38 - 78. , , M&AM&A - 39 - 79. 6 1. 4 , ( ) , , 4 - 6.6 , 24 - 40 - 80. ,, , , (6,0002,000115 ) 70 4 703,000 , 200 - 41 - 81. ,7 , , - , (3,000 ) , 70 , ( ) (2.1 ) 60 , - 42 - 82. , ,M&A 5 , - 43 - 83. 2. : , - , , ( ) - 44 - 84. , , , ( ) , ( ) , - 2012 ,3,00061.4 - - 45 - 85. - () 1 1,000, 2 2,000, 3 3,000 (fast track) . (, , 2013.9.23.) (, ) ( 7 ) -2013 2 -2011 - 200 20%5% 1%() 1 115 115 x 1% = 1.15 - 6,000 1.15 x6,000= 6,900 - 46 - 86. 1,200 2013- - 15%4,600 -15% 2.25%() 1 115 115 x 2.25% = 2.588 - 6,000 2.588 x6,000= 15,528 (6,900 +15,528 169.9 6000169.919,4282,428 ) , 23,000 101.941.022.293.313.0110.04500084.950.851.912.762.468.20169.9400067.960.681.532.211.916.36115600069.000.691.552.241.946.48115500057.500.581.291.871.575.23115400046.000.461.041.501.203.9839600023.400.230.530.760.461.5439500019.500.200.440.630.331.1139400015.600.160.350.510.210.69 (i) (ii) - 47 - 87. , - 0.1% - 48 -0.3%, 88. - 5%, 3,000 - 61.4 (2012) - 0.5% , , , - 49 - 89. , - 2 4.49% - 10 50 (10 70, 50 ) 50% 15 risk , (- 50 - 90. ) - () 1 500 3 5,000 5,000 , , - - - - 51 - 91. 7 (, ) , , 19728.3 - ! ! ()(f asttrack ) ( ) , , - 52 - 92. Fast track , EU (honest) (dishonest) , , - 4-6% 16)fasttrack fasttrack 1 ( ) 2 16)EU, E U , 2011.01.21- 53 - 93. , , , , 3 fasttrack , . DBCloud fasttrack , - 54 - 94. 8 , 3,00042 ( ) 6,000 , 70 ( ) 7 , ( )- 55 -fasttrack 95. (, , ) - , - - 70 - - 56 - 96. 1: 1 Onof f mixhttp://onoffmix.com/event/184382013820 ,923 1,272 Open2S urvey 9 12 9 1713,000 7745 4070 5,971 3,21410,457 1 2http://bit.ly/18jXoRZhttp://bit.ly/16rLZuJhttp://bit.ly/16kx6Bj1,2725,971- 57 -3,214 97. 2: 17) 35( ) 4 . 1 . , . 2 2 2. 93 3. 2 1 4. 1. ] 35 4 4 1. 67 4 33( ) 4 5 4 6 . 35 4 1 1 . 4 . 37( ) 5 . 35 4 284 1 . 342() . 342() 35 4 , , , , , 3 . [ 17) , - 58 - 98. 3: 18) , , , . 341 1 3412 , . , (1) . 341 1 . 3412 4 2. 3. () 4. 1.18) , - 59 - 99. . 3412 341 1 . , (2) 3 . . 418 1 . , , ( 418 2 ). ( )- 60 - 100. (3) , , . . , . . . - 10 , 100 3 90 - 61 - 101. , 3 1 , , 3 1 () , , (4) . , . 37 5 , ,,, . , . - 62 - 102. 4: ? (1). (2). 1. ? (1). (2). 2.3.(1 ) 2? (1). (2). (3). (, ) ( ) ) ? (1). (2). (3). (4). (5). (6). ( ) 3.( ? (1). (2). (3). (4). (5). (6). ( ) 4. ? (1). (2). (3). (4). (5). ( ) (6). M&A (7). ( ) 5.- 63 - 103. 5: (SurveyofKoreaVentureFirms)1999 (14203) ,2008 12 (2,000) . , , 3 12 , (Online Survey) (, , Fax, e-mail ) 2,000 (, 3 ) , , (Structured Questionnaire) 6 1 ~ 8 30( 3) 11- 64 - 104. [ ] 2013-09-23 11:31 . . . . . 1972 8 3 . . . . = . , . OECD . . 10% . , . 105. . , . . EU (honest) (dishonest) , , ( EU , 2011.01.21). 4~6% EU . 10% . , . . . , . , . . . . DB . . KTX 10 . .< (www.etoday.co.kr), .> 106. [ ] 2013-09-16 13:26 . 1 . 60 GEM 2 . 2 . . () . 2000 . 50% , 1 . 1997 2001 416 1000 . 50% 3% OECD . 1000 60% , 30% , 7% . . 9 27 . 50 55% . 1 . ? . . . . . 107. . . GEM , . OECD , . . ? . . 5 60% 30% . . 70 1 . () 100 250 , . . GEM , . . 60% 100 5 80% . . . . . . 100 .< (www.etoday.co.kr), .> 108. [ ] 2013-09-09 11:23 1 2 . . , 2 , 6 2 . , . . 2000 7% 2018 15% . 17 2 . 72 , 46 , 24 . . . . . . . . . . . . 98% . . , . 109. . 9 27 . . . . . . . . 10 2 10 . . . . . () , () . . . . . . . . . . .< (www.etoday.co.kr), .> 110. [ ] , (2) 2013-09-09 11:23 . . . . 3 . . . . . 30% . 5% . 6 . . . . . . . . . . . M&A . 111. . . . . . ? . . . . , . , , , . . . . . . . . . 112. [ ] , (1) 2013-07-29 12:42 . . 10 5 50 . . 4%60%. . . 2000 . OECD . 2000 1 . . 1.5 . . . . . . . . 113. . KTX . . . . . . . . . . . 3% . 3 5 . 2000 1 . 8000 . 10 25% , 70 , 30 . 14 6 . . , 60 0.5% 3000 . 40 3000 . 14 . 10 140 , 40% 50 . 3000 50 . 114. 1 1 9 24 D.Camp ( ) . 70 3 ( , , ) ( , , Fast track) . , 8 , 2 . . , , , , , , . 10 100 . 1 . 14:0014:1014:1014:40 () 14:4015:40 15:4015:50 15:5015:55 15:5516:00 1 - 1 - 115. 4 3 30 . . , , , , , , . /= . " " " , " . 3 . 0.5% 3000 3000 230 70 . , , 115 , 2000 4 - 2 - 116. . 70 21000 7 . . , , . ( ) - 2000 . (CBS ) - . () - . , , . ( ) - . () - . () . - , - 3 - 117. . ( ) , () . , . () - 2000 4 (GDP) 70 . (, ) - . () - . () - , , . () - " " " " . () - " " " () , , " . ()- 4 - 118. - " " " 1.25% " . () - . '' . " 7~8%( 5% ) 6~7 " "( ) " . " " " " . () - " " "10 ' ' , " . () - " , ( ) " " " . " , ( ) " . () - " " " - 5 - 119. , " . ( ) 1[ IT] , 2[ ] "10 3[] 10 9 " No"4[] , 5[mbc6[] " "7[] [ ] 8[] " 6.6 "9[] ", "10[] " 4 "11[] " 12[] , ?13[] " 70 "14[] " 70 "15[] " 70 "16[] ? 17[] " , 18[] , 19[] 20[]" 70 "21[YTN] [ ] " ?" [YTN22[YTN Radio]23[] []' ' '24[] 2425[] , ?26[] , 27[] 24 28[] , ' ' 29[] , ' '30[] economy] 10 9 FM]< >" ?- 6 - 120. / , ( ) . / " " / ?" " / " " / " 6.6 "- 7 - 121. 2013.10.06, . . 30 , `` , . 2 . . , . , ( ) . 2, 3 . 24 ` ` , 70 2 1000 . 1 . . , ( 0.5% 3000 ) (0.5% ) . ( ) ( ) . , . | kbhong@etnews.com