339
1 THINKING about the FUTURE (Думая о будущем) Guidelines for Strategic Foresight (Руководство по Стратегическому Форсайту) Edited by Andy Hines and Peter Bishop

форсайт управление думая о будущем

  • Upload
    -

  • View
    145

  • Download
    7

Embed Size (px)

DESCRIPTION

форсайт управление думая о будущем

Citation preview

  • 1

    THINKING about the FUTURE ( )

    Guidelines for Strategic Foresight

    ( )

    Edited by Andy Hines and Peter Bishop

  • 2

    3 5 7 8 16 73 113 202 245 271 335

  • 3

    , - . - . (AFI) . : ; , , , ; , . . , , , , , , . , . -, , , , 1999 . , , , , , , . -, , , , , , . , , , , , , , - . -, . , -, . , , , . , , ,

  • 4

    . . -, . , , , , , . , , , , , . , . , , . , , , , - . . , , , , . , . Foresight International, Brisbane, February 2006

  • 5

    , . . , . . , -. , , , . . . , , . , . . . , , . , . , . , . , , , , . Tom Abeles* On the Horizon Enrique Bas* Universite dAlacant Michele Bowman* Global Foresight Associates Lynn Burton* Simon Fraser University Joseph Coates Joseph Coates Consulting Futurist, Inc.

  • 6

    Tom Conger Social Technologies, LLC Cornelia Daheim Z Punkt: The Foresight Company Peter de Jager* De Jager and Company, Ltd. Kate Delaney* Delaney and Associates Jay Forrest* JayForrest.com Jim Gelatt* University of Maryland University College Jerry Glenn The Millenium Project Michel Godet Conservatoire National des Arts et Metiers Jack Gottsman The Clarity Group Ken Hamik LipidViro Tech, Inc. Peter Hayward* Swinburne University Jennifer Jarratt Leading Futurists David Jarvis* IBM Business Consulting Services Trudi Lang* Curtin Business School Richard Lum* Vision Foresight Strategy LLC John Mahaffie* Leading Futurists Mika Mannermaa* Futures Studies Mannermaa Ltd. Eleonora Masini* Gregorian University Peo Micic* Future Management Group AG Danny Miller* Ecole des Hautes Etudes Commerciales Stephen Millett Battelle Columbus Mary Jane Naquin Informed Futures Erszebet Novaky* Corvinus University of Budapest Ian Pearson* BTexact John Petersen The Arlington Institute Alan Porter Georgia Institute of Technology Domonique Purcell* Visioware Wendy Schultz Infinite Futures Charles Snow Pennsylvania State University Rohit Talwar Fast Future Ruud Vanderhelm* ENGREF

  • 7

    , , . , , , , , , - , - . , , . , , . , , . , . , , . , , , , , . . , . , , . , . Masters Degree in Futures Studies. : (Framing), (Scanning), (Forecasting), (Visioning), (Planning) (Acting). , ,

  • 8

    . , , , , . , . , , , , , . , , . , , . , , . , . , , , , , . . :

    - : : : :

  • 9

    1.0 1.1. 1.1.1. 1.1.2. 1.1.3. , 1.1.4. 1.1.5. 1.1.6. , 1.2. 1.2.1. 1.2.2. , , 1.2.3. 1.3. 1.3.1. , 1.3.2. 1.3.3. 1.3.4. , , 1.4.

  • 10

    1.4.1. 1.4.2. , 1.4.3. 1.4.4. 1.5. 1.5.1. , 1.5.2. , 1.5.3. , 1.6. 1.6.1. , 1.6.2. 2.0 2.1. 2.1.1. 2.1.2. 2.1.3. 2.1.4. 2.2. 2.2.1. 2.2.2. 2.2.3. ,

  • 11

    2.3. 2.3.1. , 2.3.2. 2.3.3. 2.3.4. 2.4. 2.4.1. 2.4.2. , , 2.4.3. , 3.0 3.1. 3.1.1. 3.1.2. , 3.1.3. , -- 3.1.4. () 3.1.5. 3.1.6. 3.2. 3.2.1. 3.2.2.

  • 12

    3.2.3. 3.2.4. , 3.3. 3.3.1. 3.3.2. 3.3.3. 3.3.4. , - 3.3.5. , 3.3.6. 3.3.7. 3.3.8. 3.3.9. 3.3.10. 3.4. 3.4.1. 3.4.2. 3.4.3. 3.5. 3.5.1. , 3.5.2. 3.5.3. , , 3.5.4.

  • 13

    3.5.5. , 3.5.6. , 3.5.7. , 3.5.8. 3.5.9. 4.0 4.1. 4.1.1. , 4.1.2. - 4.1.3. 4.2. 4.2.1. 4.2.2. 4.2.3. , 4.2.4. , 4.2.5. 4.3. 4.3.1. 4.3.2. 4.3.3. 4.3.4. ,

  • 14

    4.3.5. : 4.3.6. ? 4.3.7. 5.0 5.1. 5.1.1. 5.1.2. 5.1.3. 5.1.4. , , 5.1.5. 5.2. 5.2.1. 5.2.2. 5.2.3. , 5.2.4. 6.0 6.1. 6.1.1. 6.1.2. 6.1.3.

  • 15

    6.1.4. 6.1.5. 6.1.6. , 6.2. 6.2.1. 6.2.2. , , 6.2.3. , 6.2.4. 6.2.5. 6.2.6. 6.3. 6.3.1. , 6.3.2. 6.3.3. 6.3.4. , 6.3.5. , 6.4. 6.4.1. , 6.4.2.

  • 16

    6.4.3. 6.4.4. , 6.4.5. , 6.4.6.

  • 17

    1.0.

    , , - , . , , , . , . - , , , . , . , . . , : 10 ? , : 1) ; 2) ; 3) , , . . , , , . , , . , 1.1. , , . , . , , , - . , , , . , , , .

  • 18

    , 1.2. , , , , . , , , , . , 1.3. , . . -, , , , , . . , 1.4. , . , , . . , . , 1.5. , , . , , , . , 1.6. , , . , , , , . , . . , . , , . , , . . , : , . , .

  • 19

    1.1. 1.1.1. , . , - . , . . . . . . . . . :

    . . , , . , , . , .

    . - , . , , , .

  • 20

    , , . . , , . (1970) - , , . . Graphisoft (www.graphisoft.com) 1982 . . , , . Graphisoft , , 80- . , 1984 3D CAD, ArchiCAD, Apple Computer. Graphisoft . , . Seligman, M.E.P. (1998). Learned Optimism: How to Change Your Mind and Your Life. New York: Free Press. Toffler, A. (1970). Future Shock. London and Sydney: Pan Books.

  • 21

    1.1.2. . . . , , , , . , , . , , . , . , . , , . . , , . . , . . , ( ), . , . ( ), . , .

  • 22

    . - (KAI), - (MYBT), (HBDI) (. 1.1.4. ) . KAI . - , . . - , : (I) (E), (S) (N), (T) (F), (P) (J). , . , , - . . , , , . , . , . , . , . , ( KAI) . , , - 60- . , , . 1961 . 1500 , .

  • 23

    , . , 53 $ . , . , , , . , . Beck, D. and Cowan, C. (1996). Spiral Dynamics: Mastering Values, Leadership, and Change. Oxford: Blackwell. The Error of Unison. (2005, May 26). Total Information Awareness. Viewed July 2005. http://tianews.blogspot.com/2005/05/error-of-unison.html. Halberstam, D. (1993). The Best and the Brightest. Danvers, MA: Ballantine. Hermann, N. (1989). The Creative Brain. Lake Lurie, NC: Brain Books. Janis, I. (1982). Groupthink. (2nd ed.). Boston: Houghton-Mifflin. Keirsey, D. and Bates, M. (1978). Please Understand Me: Character and Temperament Types. Del Mar, CA: Prometheus Nemesis. Kirton, M. (1994, revised). Adaptors and Innovators: Styles of Creativity and Problem Solving. London: Routledge.

  • 24

    1.1.3. , . , . - , . , , , , , , , . . , . . . , , . . , . , ( ; . 1.5.2. , ), . . , . , , . , , . , .

  • 25

    . , . , . , . , , . , , , , . Linkow, P. (1999, July 1). What Gifted Strategic Thinkers Do. Training & Development. Ogilvy, J. (2004, February). What Strategists Can Learn from Sartre. Strategy + Business.

  • 26

    1.1.4. General Electric 70- ., , , . . . , , , , . GE. , . , , . Solutionpeople (www.solutionpeople.com) , - - . - , - . , , (Hermann Brain Dominance Inventory, HBDI). HBDI , . , Know Your Brain Game ( ). - , 80-90%. , : , . , . .

  • 27

    , , . , . . . , , . , , - . . :

    , . , . , , , . , , , . , , , , , - .

    Hermann International (www.hbdi.com) 4 000 000 $, , . , . , , , . , .

  • 28

    - , , , . , . , . , , , . Hermann-Nehdi, A. A Whole-Brain Approach to Solving a Customer Problem. Retrieved July 13, 2005 from www.hbdi.com/download/casestudies/wb-appro.pdf. Hermann, N. (1989). The Creative Brain. Lake Lurie, NC: Brain Books. Edwards, B. (1999). The New Drawing on the Right Side of the Brain. East Rutherford, NJ: Putnam.

  • 29

    1.1.5. , , . , . , . , . (1971), , :

    . . . , . . : , . , , . , , , , . , , . , . , . . . , , : , 25 , !

    , : ( ) ( , )

  • 30

    ( ) S-. S- , - , . , , , - , . S- . , , S-. , , , . , - . , , . , . . , . , , -; . , , , , . , , , , -, . 60- . , . 10 , (1971) , , . , , , . , .

  • 31

    . , , ! . , , , . , , , . Forrester, J.W. (1971). Counterintuitive Behavior of Social Systems. Technology Review. Gladwell, M. (2002). The Tipping Point: How Little Things Can Make a Big Difference. Boston, MA: Back Bay Books.

  • 32

    1.1.6. , : , , . , , . . , , , . (Chakravorti, 2003) . , - . . , , , , , , . . , , , . , . . : ? ? : ? -, - . . , . , . , , . .

  • 33

    -, - . , , . , , . , , . . , , - . ( , , , ) . , , . . , . - . , , . Chakravorti, B. (2003). The Slow Pace of Fast Change: Bringing Innovations to Market in a Connected World. Cambridge, MA: Harvard Business School Press. Dator, J. (1999, February). From Tsunamis to Long Waves and Back. Futures, 31 (1). Schultz, W. (2003, February 15). Identifying and Monitoring Change. Retrieved July 7, 2005, from www.infinitefutures.com/essays/ff/ch5b.shtml.

  • 34

  • 35

    1.2. 1.2.1. . , , . , . , , , , , , , , .. . , , . , . , -, , .. , . , , , , . . , , , . , , . , , . / . , . , . , . , , . , , . , . .

  • 36

    , . , . . 6.1. . , , . . . , . , . . , . Block, P. (1999). Flawless Consulting: A Guide to Getting Your Expertise Used. (2nd ed.) Hoboken, NJ: Pfeiffer. Maister, D.H. (2000). The Trusted Advisor. New York: Touchstone. Weiss, A. (1997). Million Dollar Consulting: The Professionals Guide to Growing a Practice. (2nd ed.). New York: McGraw-Hill.

  • 37

    1.2.2. , , . , . , . , - , - , . , , , . . , . , . , . , . . . , , . , ? , ? - , . . , . , , . : , - . , , , .

  • 38

    . , . - , - , . , , , . , . . , , , , , . Slaughter, R. (1998). Transcending Flatland: Some Implications of Ken Wolbers Meta-Narrative for Futures Studies. Futures, 30(10), 993-1002. (Available at www.foresightinternational.com.au) Wilber, K. (1997). An Integral Theory of Consciousness. Journal of Consciousness Studies, 4 (1), 71 92.

  • 39

    1.2.3. : . . , , , . . . , , . , . , . , , , , . , , . , . , , , . . , , . , . , , , .

  • 40

    , , . - . , , , . , . . . , , . , . Coates, J. (2001, October 23). Future and Technology Assessment Research for Business Clients. Retrieved July 13, 2005 from www.josephcoates.com/pdf_files/263_Future_Research_for_Biz.pdf. Hines, A. (1999, April). The Simple Facts of Business Life. Foresight: the journal of futures studies, strategic thinking, and policy, 1 (2).

  • 41

    1.3. 1.3.1. , , . . . - : ? : ? , . , , . , . . , - . , . , , . , , , . , . , , .

  • 42

    . , , , . . , , . , 20 . . . . , ? ? , . : ? ? ? , . , , . , . . . , . , , . , , . Schwartz, P. (1997). The Art of the Long View. New York: Wiley. Van der Heijden, K. (n.d.). Scenarios, Strategy, and the Strategy Process. Presearch: Provoking Strategic Conversation. Emervylle, CA: Global Business Network.

  • 43

    1.3.2. , . , . , . , (1984) , . . , , . , , . , . . , , . , , , . , . , . , , , , , .. . . , . , . . , - . , . . , , .

  • 44

    . -, , , . . , , . (1984), , , - . -, , . , . , . -, . , , . Shell (, 1984). , , . Shell . . 1972 . , , . . --, , . , . 1973 ., Shell .

  • 45

    Brown, J.S. (2004). Rethinking the Innovator's Dilemma with Modern Tools. PDMA/IIR Best Practices, Tools, and Techniques for Managing the Front End of Innovation. May 25, Boston, MA. Prahalad, C.K. and Bettis, R.A. (1986). The Dominant Logic: A New Linkage between Diversity and Performance. Strategic Management Journal, 7, 485 501. Senge, P., Kleiner, A., Roberts, C., Ross, R., and Smith, B. (1994). The Fifth Discipline Fieldbook. New York: Currency Doubleday. Wack, P. (1984). Scenarios: The Gentle Art of Reperceiving. Reprinted by Global Business Network from President and Fellows of Harvard College, Working Paper 9-785-042.

  • 46

    1.3.3. . , , . -. , . , . . -, . . , . , . , , , . -, . , . , . , , . -, . , ? ? , Swiffer, Procter&Gamble , . , . , , . , , . (2003), , , , , . , , , .

  • 47

    , , , , , . . . , , , . , , (1999). . . . , . , , , , . , , , . , . , . , , , . Axelrod, R. and Cohen, M.D. (1999). Harnessing Complexity: Organizational Implications of a Scientific Frontier. New York: The Free Press. Christensen, Clay. (2003). The Innovators Solution: Creating and Sustaining Successful Growth. Cambridge, MA: Harvard Business School. Courtney, H. (2001). 20/20 Foresight: Crafting Strategy In an Uncertain World. Boston: Harvard Business School Press.

  • 48

    1.3.4. , , , . , . , , , . , , . , . , , . , , . . . , , , . . - . , , . (2001) , IKEA , - . IKEA . ,

  • 49

    . , , , . , , . Boisot, M. (1998). Knowledge Assets: Securing Competitive Advantage in the Information Economy. London: Oxford University Press. Christensen, C. (2004). Seeing Whats Next: Using Theories of Innovation to Predict Industry Change. Boston: Harvard Business School Press. Normann, R. (2001). Reframing Business: When the Map Changes the Landscape. New York: Wiley. Rosenau, M.D., Griffin, A., Castellion, G.A., and Anschuetz, N.F., eds. (2002). The PDMA Handbook of New Product Development (1st edition). New York: Wiley.

  • 50

    1.4. 1.4.1. . , . , . , , . , , , , 25 . . (2003) , , , , . , .

    . , XYZ. . , , , , , .. , . , , , . , . , -. , , , , . -. ,

  • 51

    . , , . , . , . , , , , , , . , , . , . , , , , , . , , . , .

    , . , , . , . , , . , ; , . , , . , , , , . , , . , , .

  • 52

    , . , . , , , , . , . . , . . , . , , . , , , . Hines, A. (2003). An Audit for Organizational Futurists: Ten Question Every Organizational Futurist Should Be Able to Answer. Foresight, 5 (1), 20 33. Rosenau, M.D., Griffin, A., Castellion, G.A., and Anschuetz, N.F., eds. (2002). The PDMA Handbook of New Product Development (1st edition). New York: Wiley.

  • 53

    1.4.2. , , , . , . . . ?. . , , , ( ). , . . , , . , , . . ; , . : ? . -, ? , . , , . -, ? , , . , . , , .

  • 54

    -, , ? , , , , . -, ? , . , . , ? , . , , , , , , . , . , ; - . , . , . , . , , . (2001) , , - . : 1950 . , . , , . , . , , 1946 2000 .

  • 55

    Collins, J. (2001). Good to Great. New York: HarperBusiness. Department of Finance and Administration. (2003a). Structured Agency Model. Canberra, Australia: Australian Government. Viewed June 2005, www.finance.gov.au/budgetgroup/Commonwealth_Budget_-_Overview/structured_agency_model.html. Department of Finance and Administration. (2003b). The Outcomes and Outputs Framework. Canberra, Australia: Australian Government. Viewed June 2005, www.finance.gov.au/budgetgroup/Commonwealth_Budget_-_Overview/the_outcomes__outputs_framewo.html. FAQs. (2002). Publishers Weekly. Viewed June 2005, www.publishersweekly.com/index.asp?layout=contentinfodetail&articleID=CA260302&channel=AboutUS&display=wildcard#trade.

  • 56

    1.4.3. . , . , , . , . , . , . . : . , . , . , , , . . 1.1.6. , . , . , . , , , . , . , , - .

  • 57

    ?. . . , , . , . , . , . . , . , , . , . , , . , , . 30 . , , . . , . . . , , . , .

  • 58

    Boulding, E. (2003). Visioning and Futures Studies. Interview by Julian Portilla. Viewed July 2005, www.beyondintractability.org/iweb/audio/boulding-e-3-future-studies1.html. Coates, J.F., Mahaffie, J.B., and Hines, A. (1996). 2025: Scenarios of the US and Global Society as Reshaped by Science and Technology. Greensboro, NC: Oakhill Press. Gruff, L. and Smoker, P. (n.d.). Time Periods for Studying the Future. Introduction to Futures Studies. Viewed July 2005, www.chudh.edu/global_options/IntroFS.HTML#FSTimePrds.

  • 59

    1.4.4. , - . , , - , . . , .

    , , , . , , , , , , . . , . , , . . , , , . , , , . , . , . . , ; . ( ); . , : ?. . , (1996):

  • 60

    1. -? 2. ? 3. ? 4. ? 5. ? 6. ? , . . . , . , . . , . . , . , . . , , . (1996) . , , , . , - ( ), , . ,

  • 61

    - , , , - , . , , . , . Beck, D. and Cowan, C. (1996). Spiral Dynamics. Oxford: Blackwell. Beer, S. (1984). Diagnosing the System for Organizations. New York: Wiley. Hayward, P. (2004). Facilitating Foresight: Where the Foresight Function Is Placed in the Organization. Foresight: the journal of futures studies, strategic thinking, and policy, 6 (1), 19 - 30.

  • 62

    1.5. 1.5.1. , , , . . , . , . , , . . , (2002) , . , . . , , , , . . . , 100% , , . . , , . , . , , . .

  • 63

    . , , . . , . , . . . , , . , , , . , , . . (2004), , , , . , . : . OS/360 IBM 60- ., , . , . , , - , , . , , . Hackman, J.R. (2002). Leading Teams: Setting the Stage for Great Performance. Cambridge, MA: Harvard Business Press.

  • 64

    Hines, A. (1999, August). The Foresight Amphibian in the Corporate World. Foresight: the journal of futures studies, strategic thinking, and policy, 1 (4). Janis, I. (1989). Crucial Decisions. New York: The Free Press. Nutt, P.C. (2002). Why Decisions Fail: Avoiding the Blunders and Traps That Lead to Debacles. San Francisco: Berrett-Koehler. Stevens, G. and Burley, J. (May-June 1997). 3000 Raw Ideas = One Commercial Success. Research Technology Management, 40 (3), 16 27. Surowiecki, J. (2004). The Wisdom of Crowds: Why the Many Are Smarter than the Few and How Collective Wisdom Shapes Business, Economies, Societies, and Nations. New York: Random House.

  • 65

    1.5.2. , . . . , . (). , . , . , . , , . , . , . (war room) , . , . , , . . , , , .. , , PDA, , . . , , . , Q&A , .

  • 66

    . - . -, . , , ; , , . . , -, . , , , . , , , . Hines, A. (2000, August). The Facilitator versus the Expert, or Process versus Content. Foresight: the journal of futures studies, strategic thinking, and policy, 2 (4). Shaker, S.M. and Gembicki, M.P. (1999). The War Room Guide to Competitive Intelligence. New York: McGraw-Hill.

  • 67

    1.5.3. , . . , , , . , . , . . , , . , , . , , . , , , (, 2000:12 - 20). , , . (2001:73 - 80) , , : 1. , . 2. , . 3. , . 4. () ( ). (1985) , . , , - .

  • 68

    : , , .. , . , . , . , . . , , , . : ?. , , , . . , , , , . , , . (, 1998). Good to Great (2001, . 65-69), , A&P Kroger - 70- . 50- A&P , Kroger . 1973 , 25 Kroger 8 , A&P. , Kroger A&P , , . : 1970, Kroger : . Kroger , , . Bradford, R.W. and Duncan, J.P. (2000). Simplified Strategic Planning. Worcester, MA: Chandler House Press.

  • 69

    Collins, J. (2001). Good to Great. New York: HarperCollins. De Bono, E. (1985). Six Thinking Hats. New York: Little, Brown&Co. McDaniel, G., Littlejohn,S., and Domenici, K. (1998). A Team Conflict Mediation Process That Really Works! In M. Bullock, C. Friday, K. Belcher, B.Bisset, S.Hurley, C.Foote, and D.Thai, eds. The International Conference on Work Teams Proceedings: 1998 (67-74)/ Denton: University of North Texas, Center for the Study of Work Teams.

  • 70

    1.6. 1.6.1. , , . , , , , . . , , . , . , General Motors Alticor. - . . , . , . (war room) , . . , , , . . , . . . . : . , , , , , - . . :

  • 71

    . , . ( ). . , . , . , . , . , .

    IDEO Nightline ABC, IDEO: . , 4000$ DC9 - IDEO. , , . , . , , ( ). , . , . , . . . , - -. , (Tninkubator) . -. , .

  • 72

    , . . Kelley, T. (2001). The Art of Innovation. New York: Currency Doubleday. Haman, G. (1999). The Six Ingredients of Creative Thinking. Chicago, IL: SolutionPeople. Sittenfeld, C. (1999, April). Whats the Big Idea? Fast Company.

  • 73

    1.6.2. . , , , . . (1996) , . , . . (2003) . , , . , . (2003) , . , , . , , , , . . -, , , -. , , . (2003:59): , , 10000-20000 ,

  • 74

    , - , . , . -, (1996) , , . . - , , , . . , . , -, . - , , . (2003) Whirlpool. 1999 2003 10000 , . 7000 , 300 . , , , , . De Bono, E. (1996). Serious Creativity: Using the Power of Lateral Thinking to Create New Ideas. Hammersmith, UK: Harper Collins Business. Hamel, G. (2003, Winter). Innovation as a Deep Capability. In Leader to Leader, viewed July 2005, www.pfdf.org/leaderbooksL2L/winter2003/hamel.html. Hamel, G. and Valikangas, L. (2003). The Quest for Resilience. Harvard Business Review. Hargadon, A. (2003). How Breakthroughs Happen: The Surprising Truth about How Companies Innovate. Boston: Harvard Business School Press. Maxwell, J. (2004, August). Whose Beautiful Mind? As Business Focuses on Creativity, Theres a Fresh But Not Surprising Spin Emerging about How to Judge Those Big New Ideas. Australian Financial Review BOSS, 34 38.

  • 75

    2.0.

    + = - , , . . , . , , , . , -, ( ), , , . , , . , , . , . , 2.1. , , , , . , . , , , . , , . . , 2.2. , . .

  • 76

    , - , . , 2.3. , . , . , , , . . , , . , 2.4. , . , , . , .

  • 77

    2.1. 2.1.1. , . . , , . , , , . . . , . :

    , . (, , RSS, ..), . . , . , . , . , . . , STEEP

    (, , , ), , . , , .

  • 78

    , , . , , , . , . . , , . , , , - , , . , . , , . , , , , . , . . , . , . , (sustainability), . , , , . , , , . , . , . . Masini, E.B. (1994). The Futures of Cultures. Paris: UNESCO. Tough, A. (1991). Critical Questions about the Future. Lanham, MD: University Press of America.

  • 79

  • 80

    2.1.2. . , , , . . . , , , , , . . . , . -, . , , . . , , . , , . , ; . , , . X Y. , , . . , , , . . , , , , , . , STEEP: , , , , , , , .

  • 81

    , , . . , . , . . , . , . , . , . , , , . , . . , , . . , . , . , . - (1999) , , . (EPA) . , , . , .

  • 82

    EPA , , .. EPA . . , , . Coates, J.F. (1999, Fall). Technology Forecasting for Business Clients. Futures Research Quarterly, 15 (3). Coates, J.F. (2001, Fall). The Future as a Factor in Business Planning and Management. Futures Research Quarterly, 17 (3). Lovins, H. (1990, Spring). The Parachuting Cats. InContext. Viewed February 2005, www.context.org/ICLIB/IC25/Lovins.htm. Senge, P., Kleiner, A., Roberts, C., Ross, R., and Smith, B. (1994). The Fifth Discipline Fieldbook. New York: Currency Doubleday.

  • 83

    2.1.3. , . . (2000) , . , , , . , . , - . , :

    , - ( ) , - ( ) , - ( ) , - ( )

    . , , . , , , , , . , . , , . , , . , - , - . , , .

  • 84

    , , , , . , . , , , . , . , . . , . , . . , . , , , - . Fortune 500 company , -. , . . , -. , , ?. - , -. Hines, A. (2003, Winter). Applying Integral Futures to Environmental Scanning. Futures Research Quarterly, 19 (4).

  • 85

    Slaughter, R. (1999). A New Framework for Environmental Scanning. Foresight: the journal of futures studies, strategic thinking, and policy, 1 (5), 387 397. (Available at www.foresightinternational.com.au) Voros, J. (2001). Reframing Environmental Scanning: An Integral Approach. Foresight: the journal of futures studies, strategic thinking, and policy, 3 (6). Wilber, K. (2000). A Theory of Everything: An Integral Vision for Business, Politics, Science, and Spiritually. Boston: Shambala.

  • 86

    2.1.4. , , , . . , , . , , . , , . : , , , . -, . ? - ? (2002) , :

    ? ? , ? - , ? -, . ? , , , . , , . , . , .

  • 87

    . , . , , . , . , . , , , . , , , , , . (2002) , Shell Brent Spar. Brent Spar 137 14 500 . Shell , . , Shell . , . Greenpeace , Shell , , . , Shell . , Shell . . Van der Heijden, K. (2002). The Sixth Sense: Accelerating Organizational Learning with Scenarios. New York: Wiley. Senge, P. M . (1990). The Fifth Discipline: The Art and Practice of the Learning Organization. New York: Doubleday.

  • 88

    Nutt, P.C. (2002). Why Decisions Fail: Avoiding the Blunders and Traps That Lead to Debacles. San Francisco: Berrett-Koehler.

  • 89

    2.2. 2.2.1. , , , . (1967) , : , , . , (2001) : , , , , . , . , , , . , , . , , , . , , . . . , , . , . , . . . , - . . , . , , . , , - , . , , , , . . 3.1.5. .

  • 90

    , , , ; ; . , . , , , . , . , , . ( ) () ( ). , , . , , , . , , . . . , (1992) , . , : 1968 65% 80% . 1980 10% 20% . ? . , , . Barker, J.A. (1992). Paradigms: The Business of Discovering the Future. New York: HarperBusiness.

  • 91

    Cornish, E. (2001, July - August). How We Can Anticipate Future Events. The Futurist. De Jouvenel, B. (1967). The Art of Conjecture. Translated by Nikita Lary. New York: Basis Books.

  • 92

    2.2.2. , . . . - , . : , , , . , . , . , , . . , (APF), , (WFS), (WFSF), - . , , . (. 1997, 2004). . , , , . : , , , .

  • 93

    - . , . , , . , , , . , . Bell, W. (1997). Foundations of Futures Studies. (Vol. 1). New Brunswick: Transaction Publishers. Glenn, J.C. and Gordon, T.J. (2004). 2004 State of the Future. Washington DC: AC/UNU Millennium Project. Mannermaa, M. (2002) . Politics + Science = Futures Studies? In J. Dator, ed. Advancing Futures (161 - 175). Westport, Connecticut: Praeger.

  • 94

    2.2.3. , . , , . , - , , . , S-: , , . , , . . , , . , , . , : ? , , ?. , , . , . , , , , , , - , , , . , . : . , , , . . -, . . , :

    . IT .

  • 95

    - . , . ; , . : , , . , , , - . , , . , , , , , . , , . , ? ! . , , , , . . (Icewine). Icewine , . , , , 100$ . , . . , . , . , , , , , , , . , , .

  • 96

    Christensen, C. (1997). The Innovators Dilemma. New York: HarperBusiness. Hamel, G. (2002). Leading the Revolution: How to Thrive in Turbulent Times by Making Innovation a Way of Life. New York: Penguin Books.

  • 97

    2.3. 2.3.1. , , . , , . , . , , . . , , , . , . , , . . , , , , , -. , , .

    : : : :

  • 98

    . , . . , , , . : , ,

    . . . , : , (. 2.1.3. ). , , (. 3.1.2. , ). , . , (2003), . , . , , , .. (STEEP ). , . , . . .

  • 99

    . . . , , . , , . , , , , . , . : . , (), (). , (1984) . , , , . , , , . , OPEC, , . , , , . , , , , . Hamel, G. and Prahalad, C.K. (1996). Competing for the Future. Cambridge, MA: Harvard Business School Press. Hines, A. (2003, Winter). Applying Integral Futures to Environmental Scanning. Futures Research Quarterly.

  • 100

    Slaughter, R. (1999). A New Framework for Environmental Scanning. Foresight: the journal of futures studies, strategic thinking, and policy, 1 (5), 387 397. (Available at www.foresightinternational.com.au) Voros, J. (2001). Reframing Environmental Scanning: An Integral Approach. Foresight: the journal of futures studies, strategic thinking, and policy, 3 (6), 533 - 552. Wack, P. (1984). Scenarios: The Gentle Art of Reperceiving. Reprinted by Global Business Network from President and Fellows of Harvard College, Working Paper 9-785-042.

  • 101

    2.3.2. . , . . , 2.3.1. , , () () . , , . . , , , . , (. 4.0. ). , . , . , . , , . - , . . , . , . , , .

  • 102

    . . , . , - , . , -, , , , . , , . - , . , , , , , . , , . , -, -, - . , . Hines, A. (2005, June). Using Foresight to Generate Insight: A Sampler of Futures Tools. Competia Online Magazine. Marien, M. (1991). Scanning: An Imperfect Activity in an Era of Fragmentation and Uncertainty. Futures Research Quarterly 7, 82 90.

  • 103

    2.3.3. , , , . , . , : , , , . , . , , . -, , , . . . , . ? - , ? , , . , , , . , . . , . , , . ? , , . Exxon? , ?

  • 104

    . . , , , . , . . (1997), , (www.thinking-expedition.com), . - , . : - . , , , . , , Fortune 100, 50 ; 130 . De Bono, E. (1993). Serious Creativity. New York: Harper Business. Kodama, F. (1992, July). Technology Fusion and the New R&D. Harvard Business Review. Smith, R. (2002). The 7 Levels of Change: Different Thinking for Different Results. 2nd Ed. Irving, TX: Tapestry Press. Smith, R. (1997, January 1). The Virtual Thinking Expedition Company: A Different Idea Exploring the Unknown on Adventures with the Mind. Viewed July 2005, www.thinking-expedition.com/news.html.

  • 105

    2.3.4. , . , . , , , . , . , , , . , . , , . . - , . , . . , . , . , . , , . . , , . , , . . . , . , , . , . ,

  • 106

    . , , . , , . Fortune 100 . , . , . . . , , . . . , . . , . Hines, A. (2000, October). Where do Your Trends Come from. Foresight: the journal of futures studies, strategic thinking, and policy, 2 (5). Markley, O.W. and Wygant, A.C. (1988). Information and the Future: A Handbook of Sources and Strategies. New York: Greenwood Press.

  • 107

    2.4. 2.4.1. .. (1960), , . , . , , , . , . , , , . , . . , , . (2002) , , , , . . , . . , . , . , , (2002) , .

  • 108

    . , . , , , . Royal Dutch/Shell 70- ., , . , Shell , , . , , Shell . Shell , . Shell. Shell , , Global Business Network (GBN), 100 , GBN . Collins, N. (2002, September). Scenarios in Business. GBN Book Club Newsletter. Gurdjieff, G.I. (1960). Meetings with Remarkable Men. London: Penguin. Kelly, E. and Leyden, P. (2002). Whats Next: Exploring the New Terrain for Business, New York: Perseus/Wiley. Schwartz, P. (1991). The Art of the Long View. New York: Wiley. Van der Heijden, K. et al. (2002). The Sixth Sense: Accelerating Organizational Learning with Scenarios. New York: Wiley. Wack, P. (1984). Scenarios: The Gentle Art of Reperceiving. Reprinted by Global Business Network from President and Fellows of Harvard College, Working Paper 9-785-042.

  • 109

    2.4.2. , ,

    . . , . . . , . , . . , , . . (1998) , , . , , . , . , , :

    , - , , - , , , , . . , , , , . , , . , , , .. . , . . , , . ,

  • 110

    , . , . , - . , , - . , , , , , , . , Nokia, Sony Casio . . (World Water Vision, Cosgrove, 1998) - (1998 - 2000), , . -, , . ICT (- ), , . - . , , , . , . , , . , . Collins, J.C. and Porras J.I. (1997). Built to Last: Successful Habits of Visionary Companies. New York: HarperBusiness.

  • 111

    Cosgrove, W.J. and Rijsbermann, F.R. (2000). World Water Vision: Making Water Everybodys Business. London: Earthscan/James&James. Kleiner, A. (1996). The Age of Heretics. New York: Currency Doubleday. Marsh, N., McAllum, M., and Purcell, D. (2002). Strategic Foresight: The Power of Standing in the Future. Melbourne: Crown Content. Prusak, L., ed. (1997). Knowledge in Organizations. St. Louis, MO: Butterworth-Heinemann. Steinbock, D. (2001). The Nokia Revolution: Success Factors of the Extraordinary Company. New York: AMACOM.

  • 112

    2.4.3. , . , , . , , . , , . , , . . , , , , . , , , , . . ( ?), ( ?). , , , . , , , , , , , . , . -, (www.geneanderson.biz) , , - :

    ? ( ?) ? ( , ?)

  • 113

    ? ( ?) ? ( , ?) . , , (www.solutionpeople.com). 1. , , .., , , .

    . 2. , , . 3. . , , . 4. . . , , .

    . -, , . -, , . , . , . , . , , . , , , , .

  • 114

    , , IDEO. IDEO (Deep Dive) Nightline ABC, - . , , , . , , , - IDEO. Dator, J. (1993, Winter). From Future Workshops to Envisioning Alternative Futures. Futures Research Quarterly. Viewed August 2005, www.futures.hawaii.edu/dator/futures/Workshops.html. Koppel, T. (1999, July 13). The Deep Dive. ABC News Nightline. New York: ABC News. Doyle, M. and Strauss, D. (1993). How to Make Meetings Work: The New Interaction Method. East Rutherford, NJ: Berkley Publishing Group. Schrage, M. (2000). Serious Play: How the Worlds Best Companies Stimulate to Innovate. Cambridge, MA: Harvard Business School Press.

  • 115

    3.0.

    - . , , , . , , - . , , , , , - , ! , , , . . , . - , . . , , . , . , , . , . , , .

  • 116

    , . , , ?, , . , (), , , , . , , , . , , , , . , 3.1. , , . , , . . , , , , , . . ? , , , , , . , 3.2. , . , , . , , . , , , , .

  • 117

    , 3.3. , , . , . , 3.5. , . , . . , . , , , , , . . , . , , .

  • 118

    3.1. 3.1.1. , . , , . , , , , (STEEP) , , . , , . , - , - , . , , , . . . . . , . , :

    , , ,

  • 119

    , , . , , . 2003, (ACA) . . , , , , , , , . : , , , . - . ACA - (ABA), ACA . Australian Communication authority. (2004, October). Vision 2020: Preliminary Report. http://internet.aca.gov.au/ACAINTER:STANDARD::pp=PC_1535,pc=PC_1538. Buzan, B. and Segal, G. (1998). Anticipating the Future. Sydney: Symon & Schuster. Lindgren, M. and Bandhold, H. (2003). Scenario Planning. Hampshire, UK: Palgrave MacMillan. May, G.H. (1996). The Future Is Ours. Westpost, CT: Praeger. Schwartz, P. (2003). Inevitable Surprises: Thinking Ahead in a Time of Turbulence. New York: Gotham Books. Van der Heijden, K. (2002). The Sixth Sense: Accelerating Organizational Learning with Scenarios. New York: Wiley.

  • 120

    3.1.2. , . , , , . , , STEEP: , , , , . , , . , Sohail Inayatullahs CLA ( Sohail Inayatullah). CLA : 1) /, 2) /, 3) /, 4) /. . , . . , . , , . , . , . , , . , , () . , . ,

  • 121

    , , , , , . , . , CNN, - , , . , , . , , , . , . , , , . , , , . . , , . , , , , , , , . , , , , , .

  • 122

    Inayatullah, S. (n.d.). The Growth of Aviation and Some Major Constraints. Viewed July 2005, http://library.uws.edu.au/adt-NUWS/uploads/approved/adt-NUWS20050218.120843/public/04Chapter3.pdf Inayatullah, S. (2005). Causal Layered Analisys: Post-Structuralism as Method. The Knowledge Base of Futures Studies (R. Slaughter, ed.). (Vol. 2). (Professional Edition CD-ROM). Indooroopilly, Australia: Foresight International. (Available at www.foresightinternational.com.au) Inayatullah, S., ed. (2004). The Causal Layered Analisys (CLA) Reader: Theory and Case Studies of an Integrative and Transformative Methodology. Taipei: Tamkang University Press. Slaughter R. (1989, October). Probing Beneath the Surface. Futures, 21(5), 447-65. (Available at www.foresightinternational.com.au)

  • 123

    3.1.3. , -- , . , , . , . , , - . . , . , . , , : , , , (STEEP) . , . , . , :

    , , - . , , . , (, , , , , , /, ), -- .

  • 124

    , . . . , (. 6.3.1. , ). . , . , . , . : , . , , . , , -. , . , , . Nokia - , . (Steinbock, 2001) Nokia 1865 . - . Nokia , , . , Nokia.

  • 125

    , Nokia , , . , . Collins, J.C. and Porras J.I. (1997). Built to Last: Successful Habits of Visionary Companies. New York: HarperBusiness. Marsh, N., McAllum, M., and Purcell, D. (2002). Strategic Foresight: The Power of Standing in the Future. Melbourne: Crown Content. Nokia:History. Wikipedia. Viewed August 2005, http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nokia. Schwartz, P. (1991). The Art of the Long View. New York: Currency Doubleday. Steinbock, D. (2001). The Nokia Revolution: Success Factors of the Extraordinary Company. New York: AMACOM.

  • 126

    3.1.4. () (Systems (1980)) : . , , - , , . : . , , . , , , , . - . , . , . . , - . , - , . STEEP , , . , (Trend Impact Analisys - TIA), , . , , , , . . , :

    ? ? ? ? ?

  • 127

    , , . , . , , , . , TIA , , . , , ?. , , ( ). 1966 (1983) , , , . ( ) . , , . ( - ), , . , , , -. . , . , , . , . , , , . , . , - 2010 .. , , -. ,

  • 128

    . , . Gordon. T.J. (2003). Trend Impact Analysis. In J. Glenn and T.J. Gordon, eds. Futures Research Methodology, Version 2.0. Washington, D.C.: American Council for the United Nations. Helmer, O. (1983). Looking Forward. Beverly Hills, CA: Sage. IFS. (n.d.). Viewed August 2005, www.battelle.org/dr-futuring/IFS/default.stm. Kauffman, D. (1980). Systems I: An Introduction to Systems Thinking. Minneapolis, MN: Futures Systems.

  • 129

    3.1.5. . , , , , . , , , , . : . , . , , . , . . , . . , , , . , , . :

    1492 - 1604 1. 1604 1775 2. , 1777 1785 3. 1785 1860 4. 1865 1914 5.

  • 130

    1919 1929 6. 1929 1941 7. 1945 - 1989 8. 1991 .. 9. , , , . , . . , , , . , -, , , , , . , ? . . , ? , , . - , , - -, - . , , , , , , . , , , , , , , . , , , , .

  • 131

    , . , , . , , . , , , , . , . , , , , , , . IBM 1981 . , , . IBM , . , . 1982, Compaq , 18 IBM. , Intel . IBM-PC Intel 8088, PC, PC-AT, 80286. 1985 . Intel 80386 , IBM , PC-AT. , Compaq Deskpro , 80386 , 1986, , IBM PS/2. IBM . Bishop, P. (2004). Era System. (Unpublished manuscript). Corporate Strategy Board. (2000). State of the Union: 2000 Member Survey. Washington, DC: Corporate Strategy Board.

  • 132

    3.1.6. , , , . , , . , , . , , , , , . , , , . , , . . , , , , . . , . , . , , . , , . , . , , , .

  • 133

    , , - . , . , , , , . , , , . , . , , , , . : , , . :

    , , , , ,

    2002 . . , :

  • 134

    , , , , , .

    Courtney, H. (2001). 20/20 Foresight: Crafting Strategy In an Uncertain World. Boston: Harvard Business School Press. Delaney, K. (2003, August). Decision Corridors as a Futures Technique. Journal of Futures Studies 8(1), 53 60. Kahneman, D., Slovic, P., and Tversky, A. (1982). Judgment under Uncertainty: Heuristics and Biases. Cambridge, UK: Cambridge University Press. Schoemaker, P.J.H. (2002). Profiting from Uncertainty. New York: Free Press. Van der Heijden, K. (2002). The Sixth Sense: Accelerating Organizational Learning with Scenarios. New York: Wiley.

  • 135

    3.2. 3.2.1. . , . , , . , . , . . . (framing), . , , - , , , . (2001) , .

    1: , 5 2: ,

  • 136

    3: 4: , , , , /. , . , , /, . /, , . , . - , , , . , , . , . , -, , . , , . , , . , . , , , . , , . ,

  • 137

    , . Courtney, H. (2001). 20/20 Foresight: Crafting Strategy in an Uncertain World. Cambridge, MA: Harvard Business School. Hines, A. (1999, April). The Simple Facts of Business Life. Foresight: the journal of futures studies, strategic thinking, and policy, 1 (2).

  • 138

    3.2.2. . , , . () . . , . , , , . . , , (. 2.1.4.: ) . , . , , . , (Futures Wheel), (Jerome Glenn, 2003), , (Implications Wheel, www. implicationswheel.com), . 4.1.2. - . , . . , . , , , , . . , , . , . .

  • 139

    , . , - . - . , , . . . , , , . , . , , . , . . . , . . , , . , . , . , , . . . . , . , , .

  • 140

    , . . , , . Glenn, J. and Gordon, T.J., eds. (2003). Futures Research Methodology, Version 2.0. Washington DC: AC/UNU Milleniun Project Hines, A. (2003). The Futures of Futures: A Scenario Salon. Foresight: the journal of futures studies, strategic thinking, and policy, 5 (4), 28-35.

  • 141

    3.2.3. , , . , , . . , . , , , . , :

    ? ? ? ? , . . , , , , . , , . .

    . . , , .

  • 142

    , . -, , . , . . , , . , . . , , . . , , . , 80-, 9 , /, . , . , , , 9 . , , , . , . Bas, E. (1999). The Sociology of the 21st Century, or How to Be Ready for Facing the Future. International Review of Sociology, 9 (3), 287-293. Bell, W. (1997). Foundations of Futures Studies. (Vol. 1). New Brunswick: Transaction Publishers.

  • 143

    Slaughter, R. (1995). The Foresight Principle: Cultural Recovery in the 21st Century. Westpost, CT: Praeger Press and London: Adamantine Press Ltd. 52. 3.2.4. , , , . , . , . , , , . , . , , . , . , . , , . . , . , . , . , , .

  • 144

    . , . . , , . , , , . , , . , , , , : , . , , . , , , . , . , , , , . , , - , . Belliveau, P., Griffin, A., and Somermeyer, S. (2002). The PDMA Toolbook for New Product Development. New York: John Wiley & Sons. Hines, A. (2005, June). Using Foresight to Generate Insight: A Sampler of Futures Tools. Competia Online Magazine.

  • 145

    3.3. 3.3.1. , , , . , . , , , , , . . . , . , , , . . . , ? . . . , , , . ? . . , , , , , , - , . ?

  • 146

    . , . , ; , ; , . , , . , , . , . , , . , , , . , , . , . , . - : -, -, - . . . 80- , Karcher, , . , , . , 1830-, . , , . . , Karcher, . - . , ,

  • 147

    ( ). : Karcher , . . (Hass, 1988) De Bono, E. (1992). Opportunities: A Handbook of Business Opportunity Search. London: Penguin. Burke, W. (1996). Wide Angle Vision. New York: Wiley. Hass, H. (1988). Der Hai im Management. Berlin, Germany: Ullstein. Micic, P. (2003). Der ZukunftsManager. Munich, Germany: Haufe. Micic, P. and Marx, A. (2004). Die Bank von Morgen denken und gestalten. Eltville, Germany: ADG.

  • 148

    3.3.2. , . , . . , : , , , . , . . . , , . , . , . , , . , , . , . , Bottom Line Innovation. , , , , , . , , , , , . , , -, . , , () . , , , . , , , -. (1991) (1991) .

  • 149

    . , . , , , , . . , . , , - ( ) . De Bono, E. (1996). Serious Creativity: Using the Power of Lateral Thinking to Create New Ideas. Hammersmith, UK: Harper Collins Business. Glenn, J. (1994). Participatory Methods. In J. Glenn and T. Gordon, eds. Futures Research Methodology Version 2.0. Washington DC: AC/UNU Millennium Project. Hall, D. (1995). Jump Start Your Brain. New York: Warner Books. Michalko, M. (1991). Thinkertoys: A Handbook of Business Creativity. Berkeley, CA: Ten Speed Press. Van Gundy, A.B. (1995). Brain Boosters for Business Advantage: Ticklers, Grab Bags, Blue Skies, and Other Bionic Ideas. San Diego, CA: Pfeiffer&Co.

  • 150

    3.3.3. . . , , , , . , . , : , , , , , . : , , . , , , , , . , , . , . , . , MBTI (Myers Briggs Type Indicator), , , . , (Levesque, 2001) MBTI . , . , (ESTP, ESFP , , , ) , , , . , (ISTJ, ISFJ , , , ), , , , .

  • 151

    . , , , , . , , , , , . , . , . , , , . , . . , . . , , , . 1965, . , , . , . C, , , , , . -- , . FDX, Fedex, . Bennis, W. (2003). On Becoming a Leader. Philadelphia, PA: Perseus Books.

  • 152

    Burton, L.E. (2004). Creativity, Innovation and Visionary Thinking: Becoming All You Can Become. In H. Didsbury, ed. Thinking Creatively in Turbulent Times. Bethesda, MD: World Future Society. De Bono, E. (1985). Six Thinking Hats. New York: Little, Brown and Co. FedEx Corporate History. Viewed August 2005, www.fedex.com/us/about/today/history/?link=4. Gelb, M.J. (1998). How to Think Like Leonardo da Vinci: Seven Steps to Genius Evary Day. New York: Dell Publishing. Levesque, L.C. (2001). Breakthrough Creativity: Achieving Top Performance Using the Eight Creative Talents. Mountain View, CA: Davies-Black. Ross, B. and Segal, C. (2002). Breakthrough Thinking for Nonprofit Organizations: Creative Strategiesfor Extraordinary Results. San Francisco: Josey-Bass. Senge, P., Kleiner, A., Roberts, C., Ross, R., and Smith, B. (1994). The Fifth Discipline Fieldbook. New York: Currency Doubleday.

  • 153

    3.3.4. , . . - , . , . , . , . , . , . : , - . . , , , - . , . , . , ( ) 110% . , . - , , - , . , . , . , , .

  • 154

    , . , , ( ). , , , , . , . , , . . , , . . . , , , . . , , . , . , . , , . , , . , , , : . . . . . , , , . , , . Coates, J. F. (1999). Getting at Assumptions is Troublesome. Technological Forecasting & Social Change, 62, 97 - 99. Smith, R. (2002). The 7 Levels of Change: Different Thinking for Different Results. 2nd Ed. Irving, TX: Tapestry Press.

  • 155

    3.3.5. , , - , , , - , , . , , , , , . , . , : , , , , . , . , , . , - , , . , IDEO , , , . , , . , , , , . , , . (2002) . - . , , . , , , .

  • 156

    . , , . , , , . , , . , : . , . , , , . , . , . -, , , . , , , . , (2002), . , , , , , . . , , , . , , , . , , , , , . F-15, , , F-16, . Coram, R. (2002). Boyd: The Fighter Pilot That Changed the Art of War. New York: Little, Brown and Company.

  • 157

    Farber, B. (2001, February). Get Uncomfortable. Entrepreneur. Viewed December 2004, www.enterpreneur.com/Magazines/Copy_of_MA_SegArticle/0,4453,285542,00.html. Kelley, T. (2001). The Art of Innovation: Lessons in Creativity from IDEO, Americas Leading Design Firm. New York: Currency Doubleday. Sutton, R.I. (2002). Weird Ideas That Work: 11 Practices for Promoting, Managing, and Sustaining Innovation. New York: Free Press.

  • 158

    3.3.6. , . , , . , . , . , . . , , . . , , , . , , . , , . , , , , . , . , , . , , , . , . (1990): , . .

  • 159

    , CNV (Corporate New Ventures) Procter&Gamble, . , P&G, CNV , . CNV , , , , . , . . , . Swiffer, 10 , - , P&G. Csikszentmihalyi, M. (1990). Flow: The Psychology of Optimal Experience. New York: HarperCollins. Stepanek, M. (1999, December 13). Using the Net for Brainstorming. BusinessWeek Online. Wynett, C. (2002, August). Inspiring Innovation. Harvard Business Review, 80, 39-49.

  • 160

    3.3.7. . , , , . , , , . , , . (2002:221) : . , , . , . . , , , , . , , , -, , . , , , . , , . , . , , (Ludema, Cooperrider, and Barrett, 2001:192 ). : , ?. : ?. . 4.3.4. , .

  • 161

    . , , , , . . , . , , , . . . . . , . , . , . -, (Hardin Tibbs, 2000) , . , , , , . , : , , (Tibbs, 2000:1). , - , , . , , , , (Roos, 2004). -, , , . , (, Statler and Jacobs, 2003:11). , , . , , , . , .

  • 162

    (2002:217) BP , , . 90- BP , Amoco Arco, , . . 15 000 BP , , , . , , , NGO . , , BP. , , BP, , : , , , . , Beyond Petroleum , 24 2001 ., , , , BP. , 1 , - , . , . Gratton, L. and Ghoshal, S. (2002). Improving the Quality of Conversations. Organizational Dynamics, 31 (3), 209-223. Hussey, D. (2001). Creative Strategies Thinking and Analytical Process: Critical Factors for Strategic Success. Strategic Change, 10 (4), 201 213. Ludema, J.D. , Cooperrider, D.L. , and Barrett, F.J. (2001). Appreciative Inquiry: The Power of the Unconditional Positive Question. In Handbook of Action Research: Participative Inquiry and Practice. (P. Reason and H. Bradbury, eds.). London: Sage Publications. Roos, J. (2004). Sparking Strategic Imagination. MIT Sloan Management Review, 46 (1), 96. Statler, M., and Jacobs, C. (2003). Active Responsiveness through Adaptive Play: Casting New Light on Strategy Genesis. Retrieved from www.imagilab.org.

  • 163

    Tibbs, H. (2000). Making the Future Visible: Psychology, Scenarios, and Strategy. Global Business Network. Viewed March, 2005, www.hardintibbs.com/pdfs/GBN_Tibbs3_00.pdf.

  • 164

    3.3.8. . , , . , , , , , . . . . , . - :

    , , . . , , .

    , , . , , . , . , , , , , . . ? ?

  • 165

    ? , . , - , ( GNP) ( , , ..). . , , . , ; . , , ( , , ..), , , (Wouters, 1999). Shupp, L. (2004). Ethnofuturism. Viewed August 2005, www.cheskin.com/p/ar.asp?mlid=7&arid=13&art=1. Wouters, P. (1999). Denkdereedschap: Een Filosofische Onderhoudsbeurt. Rotterdam: Lemniscaat (in Dutch). (Thinking Tools. A Pholosophical Overhaul).

  • 166

    3.3.9. , , . , . . , . . , , . , , . . : , . , , . , - . . , , . , . - , - , . - , , . . . , , , , . , , , . . , . , , .

  • 167

    , . ; , , , - . , , . , / , . , . , . , (Roberts, 1989): , , ; . . . . , , ; , . ! ? , . , .

    Ray, M. and Myers, R. (1986). Creativity in Business. New York: Doubleday. Roberts, R.M. (1989). Serendipity: Accidental Discoveries in Science. New York: Wiley.

  • 168

    3.3.10. , , , . , . , . , , . , , . , , , , , . , , . , , . , , . (. 2.4.2.: , , ). , . , , . , . , , . , , , , . , , . , .

  • 169

    , , .. . , . , , . , . , , , , . , , . , : , , , , , . , . (2002) , , , , , . , , . , , . , . , . - , , . De Jouvenel, B. (1967). The Art of Conjecture. New York: Basis Books. Glenn, J. (1994). Participatory Methods. In Glenn, J. and T. Gordon, eds. Futures Research Methodology Version 2.0. Washington, DC: AC/UNU Millennium Project. Nutt, P.C. (2002). Why Decisions Fail: Avoiding the Blunders and Traps That Lead to Debacles. San Francisco: Berrett-Koehler.

  • 170

    3.4. 3.4.1. , . , , , . , , , , , , . , . . , . . , . , , . . , , , , . , . , , , , . . . -, : , . -, . , .

  • 171

    , . , . , . , , , . , , (2000), . , , . , , . , , , . , , . , , , , . , . (2004) , , , - , , . , , . IKEA, : , , , , , . , , , - . : , , . , . , , , . , , , .

  • 172

    Weisbord, M. and Janoff, S. (2000). Future Search: An Action Guide to Finding Common Ground in Organizations and Communities. (2nd Edition, Updated and Expanded). San Francisco: Berrett-Koehler. Weisbord, M. and Janoff, S. (2004). Faster, Shorter, Cheaper May Be Simple; Its Never Easy. The Journal of Applied Behavioral Science 20 (10).

  • 173

    3.4.2. . . ; , -- , . , , . , , , . . , . , , . , , , , , . , . , , . , , .., , . , , , , . , , , . , , , . . ,

  • 174

    , , , . , , . , . , . , , , . . , , . , , , . . , . , , . , . , , -. , , . , , , , , . Barbieri, E. (1984). Futures Research and Global Change. Futures, 15, 468 470. Bas, E. (1999). The Sociology of the 21st Century, or How to Be Ready for Facing the Future. International Review of Sociology, 9 (3), 287 293.

  • 175

    Bell, W. (1996). The Sociology of the Future and the Future of Sociology. Sociological Perspectives, 39, 40 57. Berger, P. and Luckman, T. (1966). The Social Construction of Reality. New York: Doubleday. Kleiner, A. (1999, Spring). Doing Scenarios. Whole Earth Review. Slaughter, R. (2001, October). Knowledge Creation, Futures Methodologies, and the Integral Agenda. Foresight: the journal of futures studies, strategic thinking, and policy, 3 (5), 407 418. (Available at www.foresightinternational.com.au)

  • 176

    3.4.3. , , . -- , : , , , , . . , . , , . , , : ; ; ? . , , , . , , , . ? ? , , , , . , . , . , . , . , , , , , : .

  • 177

    , , . - , , . , : , , , , , , .. . , -, . 1929 . 1930 . , . . , , , , , 1989, . , . Bell, W. (1997). Foundations of Futures Studies. (Vol. 1). New Brunswick: Transaction Publishers. Mannermaa, M. (2004) . Traps in Futures Thinking and How to Overcome Them. In H. Didsbury Jr., ed. Thinking Creatively in Turbulent Times. Bethesda, MD: World Future Society, 41 53.

  • 178

    3.5. 3.5.1. , . , . , , , . , , , . . , , , . , . , . . ; , , , , , () . , . , , , , . ? . : , , . . , , , . , , , . , . . , . , . , ,

  • 179

    , , . , , . , , . , , , . . , , , . . .

    1. , . . . , . : . 2. . . , . . . 3. . , . .

  • 180

    4. , - , . . 5. . . . . . 6. .

    . . ; . , , . , CIA , , . ( , ), . , , .

    Senate Select Committee on Intelligence (2005). Report of the Select Committee on Intelligence on the US Intelligence Communitys Prewar Intelligence Assessments on Iraq. Washington, DC: Government Printing Office. Toulmin, S. (1972). Human Understanding. Princeton University Press. Zarefsky, D. Argumentation: The Study of Effective Reasoning. Course #499, Lecture 9. Chantilly VA: The Teaching Company.

  • 181

    3.5.2. , - (prediction): , . , . , ; , , , ; . , , . . ; ; , .. . , (forecasting), (prediction). , , , , , . , , . , . , , . , , . , , . , , , . . :

    , . . , . ? ? - , . , , . , . , . : , , .

  • 182

    , . , , ? , , , , . , , . , , .

    , , . . . , , . - , . , , , , . , , , .. , , () , , . , . (1996) Royal Dutch Shell, . 70-. 40$ , 100$ , OPEC . Shell, -, , , . , , - ( ) , . Shell , , . , , 1981 . Shell

  • 183

    , , , , , . Fahey, L. and Randall, R., eds. (1998). Learning from the Future: Competitive Foresight Scenarios. New York: Wiley. Lindgren, M. and Bandhold, H. (2003). Scenario Planning: The Link between Future and Strategy. New York: Macmillan. Ogilvy, J.A. (2002). Creating Better Futures: Scenario Planning as a Tool for a Better Tomorrow. Oxford: Oxford University Press. Ringland, G. (1998). Scenario Planning: Managing for the Future. New York: Wiley. Schwartz, P. (1991). The Art of the Long View. New York: Currency Doubleday. Van der Heijden, K. (1996). Scenarios: The Art of Strategic Conversation. New York: Wiley.

  • 184

    3.5.3. , , . :

    : , , . : , . , , . : . , . , , , . : . , .

    , . . : . . . . . . . , , . , , , . . ,

  • 185

    . , , 18-20 , - . . ? ?. . , , . , . , , . , , . , . , . , , . , . , . , , . , , , , -. , , , . , , . , . , . , - , , , . , , , , .

  • 186

    Bell, W. (1997). Foundations of Futures Studies: Human Studies for a New Era. New Jersey: Transaction Publishers. Burton, L.E. (2004). Creativity, Innovation and Visionary Thinking: Becoming All You Can Become. In H. Didsbury, ed. Thinking Creatively in Turbulent Times. Bethesda, MD: World Future Society. Levesque, L. (2001). Breakthrough Creativity: Achieving Top Performance Using the Eight Creative Talents. Mountain View, CA: Davies-Black Publishing. Schultz, W. (2003). Sidling Into Futures. In Futures Fluency: Explorations in Leadership, Vision, and Creativity. Viewed June 2005. www.infinitefutures.com/essays. Joseph, E. Futurist Skills, Tools, and Information. The Minnesota Futurist. Viewed June 2005, www.mnfuturists.org.

  • 187

    3.5.4. , , , . . . , , . , , , - , , . , , . , , . , , , , . , , , , , . , . , . , , , . , - . , , - . , ? , , , . , , ?. , , ? (. 3.5.1. , ). , - . , , , , . , , . ,

  • 188

    , , , , , ? , . , , . , , , . . , , , . , , , , , . , . , , . , . , , , . () . . , , , . , , , . 2001 . . , :

    1993 , , , , ,

  • 189

    , , , , , , . , , - Executive Orders (1997), - , . Air University. (1996). Air Force 2025. Maxwell AFB: Air University Press. Clancy, T. (1997). Executive Orders. New York: Berkley. Petersen, J. (1997). Out of the Blue. Arlington, VA: Arlington Institute. Schwartz, P. (2004). Inevitable Surprises. New York: Gotham.

  • 190

    3.3.5. , , . , . ; ; . , . . , , , , , ; . , , ; , . , , , . ? ? ? , , . , , , , , , , , . , , , , , . , ?. , , . , ; , . , . , , , . , , , . ? ? , . ? ? , , ? , . . , . : , .

  • 191

    , . , , , . (, ), ( , ), - . ?, , - ?, . , , , ? , , . , , , , . , , , . , . . , , , , , . , , . , , . , 1984, , 2001: . , , . , , , , . () . , , 65 2030 . , , . , , - !

  • 192

    Calder, J. A Futurist at the Movies. www.futuristmovies.com. Record, J. (1998). Perils of Reasoning by Historical Analogy: Munich, Vietnam, and American Use of Force Since 1945. Maxwell AFB: Air University. Viewed May 2005, www.au.af.mil/au/awc/awcgate/cst/occppr04.htm. Schnaars, S. (1989). Megamistakes: Forecasting and the Myth of Rapid Technological Change. New York: The Free Press.

  • 193

    3.5.6. , , , , , , . , - . , - . , , . , , . , 50- , - , , , . , . , , . , , , , -. , , . , , . . , , , , , . , , . , . , .

  • 194

    , , . , , , . , , , , . , . , , . , , , . - . . , . - , , - . , . CD, , . , . , , E-bay, . , . , , , , , , ? , , . , , , . . , , . .

  • 195

    Coates, J.F., Mahaffie, J.B., and Hines, A. (1996). 2025: Scenarios of the US and Global Society as Reshaped by Science and Technology. Greensboro, NC: Oakhill Press. Schultz, W. (1991, September 19). Words, Dreams, and Action: Sharing the Futures Experience. A Presentation to the World Futures Studies Federation, Barcelona, Spain. Viewed August 2005. www.infinitefutures.com/essays/fs12.shtml. Wang, C.K. and Guild, P.D. (1995). Backcasting as a Tool in Competitive Analysis, ISBM Report 24 1995. University Park, PA: Institute for the Study of Business Markets, Pennsylvania State University.

  • 196

    3.5.7. , . , , . , . , . . , : ? ? ? ? , ? , , . , . , ? ? , . ; , , , . , (. 3.1.2. , ). ( ), ( ), , , . , , (, 1992). , , , . , , . , , . . , . ? , ? , , , , . , .

  • 197

    . ? ? , . , , , . , , . , ? ? , , . , . , : 1. ? , ? 2. ? 3. , ? ? 4. ? ? 5. , ? . , . , , , , - . , , . - (MAD). 1947 1989, , . . , . ? , , , , . , , , .

  • 198

    , , . Axelrod, R. (1985). The Evolution of Cooperation. New York: Basic Books. Dixit, A.K. and Skeath, S. (1999). Games of Strategy. New York: Norton. Poundstone, W. (1992). Prisoners Dilemma. New York: Doubleday. Ross, Don. (2004). Game Theory. The Stanford Encyclopedia of Philosophy, Winter 2004 Edition. Edward N. Zalta, ed. Viewed May 2005, http://plato.stanford.edu/archives/win2004/entries/game-theory.

  • 199

    3.5.8. : . : , , . ; . , , , , , . . , . , ( ) . , , , . ,

    ? ? ? ? ? / . , . : ?

  • 200

    ? ? . , - , . , , , , , , , , , .

    . , , . , , . . , , , , , , . , , . . (2000) , . 1950 . , . . , , , , . , , , , ,

  • 201

    , . , . Bas, E. (2004), Megatendencias para el Siglo XXI; un Estudio Delfos. Mexico: FCE. Coates, J.F. (2000). Scenario Planning. Technological Forecassting and Social Change, 65, 115 123.

  • 202

    3.5.9. : . , . , . . , , . , . , ( , ), , , . , 1985 . 1995 ., . , . , , , . , , , - , , . , () : , . , . , . -. , , , . , ; , , .

  • 203

    , , . , , . . , , , , . . , . , , . , . , , . , . , , , . , , , . , , :

    742 2003 . 32% . 27% , 3145 , , . , 32%, 20 , 191000 . 250