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, .2
Reference Class Forecasting(Daniel Kahneman) 2002
For example, a group of students enrolling at acollege were
asked to rate their future academic performance relative to their
peers intheir major. On average, these students expected to perform
better than 84% of theirpeers, which is logically impossible. The
forecasts were biased by overconfidence.Another group of incoming
students from the same major were asked about theirentrance scores
and their peers' scores before being asked about their
expectedperformance. This simple diversion into relevant
outside-view information, which bothgroups of subjects were aware
of, reduced the second group's average expectedperformance ratings
by 20%. That is still overconfident, but it is much more
realisticthan the forecast made by the first group (Lovallo and
Kahneman 2003: 61).4
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Using web objects for development effort estimation of web
applicationsWeb Engineering, Lecture Notes In Computer ScienceWeb ,
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