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Mr O. Orkhon First Deputy CEO
August, 2011
Hong Kong
Mongolian Financial Services Industry Mongolian Investment Summit
MONGOLIA’S potentially sustainable competitive advantage: Can it be realised? What does it mean for you?
Randolph S. Koppa
President, Trade and Development Bank of Mongolia
April 17, 2013
OUTLINE
• What is the advantage?
• Key factors
• How is it going so far?
• Current challenges
• Growth regeneration
• Opportunities
THE POTENTIAL ADVANTAGE
Mongolia is located next to the second largest economy in the world which will continue to grow at a high rate and which will require increasing amounts of key minerals Mongolia is blessed with. There are two key minerals, copper and coking coal, on which Mongolia can establish a preferred position in serving China and the rest of East Asia
BASIS OF THE ADVANTAGE
• Abundance
• Quality
• Scale
• Yields
• Production costs
• Proximity
LINKING TO THE MARKET
Size 1,040 km
Investment US$ 5.0 bn
Time frame 2013-2017
REQUIREMENTS
• Foreign investment
• Financing
• Infrastructure
The above three require:
• Political solidarity
• Legislative stability
• Fiscal and monetary discipline
GROWING GDP, DRIVEN BY INVESTMENT IN MINING
5.17
4.57
6.69
7.94
10.02
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
GDP Growth (US$ bn)
Source: National Statistical Office of Mongolia
CONSIDERABLE FOREIGN INVESTMENT
0.8 1.0
1.6
5.3
3.8
0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
Foreign Direct Investment
Source: Bank of Mongolia, National Statistical Office of Mongolia; exchange rate of USD : MNT = 1392.1
RISING EXPORTS Export Sector
Source: Bank of Mongolia, National Statistical Office of Mongolia; exchange rate of USD : MNT = 1392.1
2.5
1.9
2.9
4.8
4.4
0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
LED BY FOUR COMMODITIES
Mln Mt/brl 2010 2011 2012
Coal 16.7 21.1 20.9
Copper 0.56 0.57 0.58
Iron Ore 3.6 5.8 6.4
Crude Oil 2.1 2.5 3.6
Source: National Statistical Office of Mongolia
Export Volume
2013 PERFORMANCE HAS BEEN MIXED
• Coal exports down
• Q1 exports down 7.8% YoY
• FDI down dramatically
On the other hand
• Inflation down; now below 10% YoY
• Q1 imports down 17.3% YoY
• Budget being managed
• Funds raised for infrastructure
SOME INSIGHT
• 2012 Parliament and 2013 President elections
• Rise in populist and nationalist rhetoric
• Softening coking coal prices and demand from China
• Reactive strategic enterprises foreign investment law
• Unclear draft of new minerals law
• Chinggis bond raised international observation of Mongolia’s affairs
RESULT: UNCERTAINTY
• Continuing as new “reform” government administration moves to implement change
• Creating a lot of foreign investors “watching from the sidelines”
In recent months economic and business concerns have revolved around five issues:
FIVE MAIN TOPICS
• Fiscal and monetary policy
• Chinggis Bond and infrastructure
• SEFIL and minerals law
• Oyu Tolgoi
• Tavan Tolgoi (Erdenes Tavan Tolgoi)
REPRESENTING A PENTAGRAM
CLASSIC SYMBOL OF WHOLENESS
• Fire
• Water
• Air
• Earth
• Psyche
FIVE INTERDEPENDENT ISSUES
A FORM COPIED IN NATURE
WITH REGENERATIVE CAPABILITY
TO RESTORE OPTIMUM CAPABILITY
DAMAGED ARMS REGENERATING
PROGRESS IS NOTED
• Inflation 9.8% in March; down 4% this year
• Fiscal surplus in February; lower spending
• New foreign investment law being readied
• Chinggis bond projects identified; railway tendering commenced
• OT production continuing towards exports this midyear; project financing being finalized
• TT (Erdenes Tavan Tolgoi) reengaging with Chalco
GETTING BACK ON TRACK
Towards achieving the sustainable competitive advantage which can help Mongolia ride through the commodity price cycles by achieving a preferred supplier status.
In addition, progress can be made in the strategy of value added processing such as in the Sainshand Industrial Park
TOTAL FINANCING INVESTMENT NEEDS AND OPPORTUNITIES 2010 TO 2015
• Mine Development $ 12 bn. to $ 20 bn.
• Infrastructure $ 8 bn. to $ 12 bn.
• Urban development $ 6 bn. to $ 8 bn.
• Agriculture $ 1 bn. to $ 2 bn.
• Industry and Commerce $ 15 bn. to $ 20 bn.
• Environment $ 1 bn. to $ 2 bn.
• Social $ 1 bn. to $ 2 bn.
• Financial Sector $ 1 bn. to $ 2 bn.
Totals: $ 45 bn. to $ 68 bn.
POTENTIAL SOURCES OF FUNDS 2010-2015
• FDI $ 11 bn. to $ 14 bn.
• Domestic sources $ 12 bn. to $ 18 bn.
• Sovereign Borrowing $ 3 bn. to $ 6 bn.
• Foreign Capital Markets $ 11 bn. to $ 16 bn.
• IFI & Foreign bank Loans $ 7 bn. to $ 12 bn.
• Donors and NGOs $ 1 bn. to $ 2 bn.
Total $ 45 bn. to $ 68 bn.
USD bln
* Chinggis bond USD 1.5 and DBM USD.6 bln
** Pending USD 4 bln OT project finance incl.
PROGRESS TO DATE
PLANELOADS OF OPPORTUNITIES
Please engage to generate, or regenerate, your interest
Thank you for your attention!
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Email: [email protected]
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