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本簡報內容需參照附錄聲明 全球金融市場評論 PineBridge Investments, Taiwan 3 Feb 2017 本簡報內容需參照附錄聲明

柏瑞週報20170203

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  • PineBridge Investments, Taiwan

    3 Feb 2017

  • PAGE 1

    Bloomberg2017/2/2%

    -0.07

    0.12

    0.14

    0.17

    0.20

    0.21

    0.22

    0.36

    0.38

    0.41

    0.43

    0.45

    0.51

    0.61

    1.81

    0.81

    0.63

    -1.84

    1.49

    1.65

    0.14

    0.13

    1.07

    0.98

    0.97

    1.46

    2.07

    2.21

    1.82

    3.00

    -

    -

    -

    -2.51

    -2.44

    -1.86

    -1.60

    -1.51

    -0.69

    -0.44

    -0.20

    -0.17

    -0.08

    0.00

    0.11

    0.67

    0.93

    1.87

    -1.05

    8.37

    0.26

    3.21

    -0.34

    1.88

    2.79

    1.90

    6.19

    6.43

    1.79

    8.97

    1.66

    2.58

    6.13

    Nikkei 225

    BOVESPA

    DAX

    H

    600

    500

    MSCI

    MSCI

    MSCI

    MSCI

    RTS

    MSCI

  • PAGE 3

    BarclaysBloomberg2017/2/3%

    /

    10

    1010

    0

    1

    2

    3

    4

    5

    6

    2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

    2.47

    300

    350

    400

    450

    500

    2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

    456

    100.04%2.47%

    0.18%3.39%128 bps

    FED0.50~0.75%(12)2%

    0.25%4350GDP0.5%GDP1.4%2%

  • PAGE 4

    0

    500

    1000

    1500

    2000

    2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

    350

    550

    750

    950

    1150

    1350

    2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

    BarclaysBloomberg2017/2/3%

    (bps)

    *10

    10

    1211

    397

    604

    /

    0.43%5.55%403 bps

    0.51%0.18%0.07%

    30

    11220OPEC21

  • PAGE 5

    100

    150

    200

    250

    300

    350

    2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

    200

    300

    400

    500

    600

    700

    800

    900

    2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

    JPMorganBloomberg2017/2/3%

    10

    10

    793

    296

    /

    0.61%5.61%

    0.43%5.44%

    2000530

    11.8%12.0%20159.0%202920152.3%

  • PAGE 6

    0

    200

    400

    600

    800

    1000

    2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

    0

    50

    100

    150

    200

    250

    2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

    JACI(bps)

    *10

    JACI10

    JPMorganBloomberg2017/2/3%

    205

    230

    298

    /

    0.36%4.61%231 bps

    0.41%4.09%0.17%6.72%

    111.2%8.7%18.6%8.5%321268

    S&P

  • PAGE 8

    8

    10

    12

    14

    16

    18

    20

    2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

    500

    1000

    1500

    2000

    2500

    2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

    /

    50010

    500

    *10PE

    Bloomberg2017/2/3%

    2281

    17.52

    15.17

    S&P 5000.69%22811.07%19891

    GDP1.9%3.5%(2.5%)

    7

    2/2S&P500268(54%)75%3.4%

  • PAGE 9

    0

    10

    20

    30

    5

    10

    15

    20

    2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

    600(lhs) 10

    225(rhs) 10

    0

    5000

    10000

    15000

    20000

    150

    250

    350

    450

    600(lhs) 225(rhs)

    Bloomberg2017/2/3%

    BOJ 60022510

    /

    600225

    18915(rhs)

    :18.28 ()

    362(lhs)

    :14.89()

    :13.13()

    :19.98()

    () ()

    GDP1.51%

    1132.51%

    GDP0.5%1.8%20161.7%200811.1%1.8%2%

    0.1%10

    2017GDP1.3%1.5%

  • PAGE 10

    0

    5

    10

    15

    20

    2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

    MSCI10

    /

    MSCI

    *10PE

    Bloomberg2017/2/3%

    12.03

    12.31

    0

    500

    1000

    1500

    2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

    915

    MSCI0.17%

    1.87%

    1PMI51750

    3.2%GDP6.75%-7.5%

  • PAGE 12

    Bloomberg2017/01/20%Deutsche Bank2017/01/30

    1000.57%56.560.45%53.54

    EIA646.6255

    OPEC95.8/116.4/80%

    3.6%

    -1.17

    -0.45

    -0.38

    0.49

    0.50

    0.57

    1.03

    1.76

    2.29

    3.18

    3.67

    10.47

    4.09

    -0.34

    0.52

    8.03

    6.33

    -0.46

    4.40

    6.50

    5.52

    10.68

    8.86

    3.74

    CRB

    LME

    LME

    LME

    LME

  • PAGE 14

    2212778767

    2211572217

    2017/02/02

  • PAGE 15

    200

    300

    400

    500

    600

    700

    2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

    394.36

    60

    70

    80

    90

    100

    110

    2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

    0

    10

    20

    30

    40

    50

    2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

    15.59

    VIX MOVE

    CDX

    *5CDS

    *5VIX

    11.93

    346.21

    *5

    67.10

    82

    Bloomberg2017/2/3

    0

    20

    40

    60

    80

    100

    120

    140

    2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

    *5MOVE

    69.92

    71.15

  • PAGE 16

    212

    12 12

    1PMI 21CPI 2

    2017/2/3

  • PAGE 17

    PineBridge Investments IP Holding Company Limited

    ()

    101013 10414410 (02)2516-7883 407386128 (04)2217-8168 8026171(A5) (07)335-5898 TR 106011

  • PAGE 18

    ()

    Rule 144A

    Slide Number 2Slide Number 3Slide Number 4Slide Number 5Slide Number 6Slide Number 7Slide Number 8Slide Number 9Slide Number 10Slide Number 11Slide Number 12Slide Number 13Slide Number 14Slide Number 15Slide Number 16Slide Number 17Slide Number 18Slide Number 19