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CEIC Leading Indicator
CEIC Leading Indicator
Agenda
What is CEIC Leading Indicator
How Does the CEIC Leading Indicator Work?
How is the CEIC Leading Indicator Useful?
What Makes the CEIC Leading Indicator Different?
Methodology
What is CEIC Leading Indicator?
Key Highlights
CEIC Proprietary Dataset
Designed to Predict the Economic Activity
Aggregated Leading Indicator
Consists of “Hard Data” Economic Indicators
What is CEIC Leading Indicator?Product Deliverables
Datasets of proprietary series for 60 countries
Methodology and country specific metadata
Interactive charts and quick insights
Regular analytical materials and newsletters
How Does the CEIC Leading Indicator Work?
How Does the CEIC Leading Indicator Work?
How is the CEIC Leading Indicator Useful?
Key Benefits
Predicts the economic activity
Released with shorter delay
Available in monthly frequency
Cross country comparable data
Predicts the Economic Activity
3-Month Interest Rate
Exchange Rate
Palm Oil Price
Equity Market Index
Predicts the Economic Activity
Released with Shorter Delay
Malaysia: Key Economic Indicators
Indicator198
8198
9199
0199
1199
21993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
15-Jan
15-Feb
15-Mar
15-Apr
15-May
CEIC Leading Indicator 18-
Jun
DOS Leading Index 24-
Jun
DOS Diffusion Leading Index
24-Jun
Employment 25-
Jun
Gross Domestic Product
15-May
Industrial Production Index
11-Jul
Cross Country Comparable Data
Cross Country Comparable Data
What Makes the CEIC Leading Indicator Different?
Coverage in emerging and frontier markets
Based on actual “hard” economic data
Reflects the output gap
Covers all aspects of the economy
Country Coverage
Asia
Australia
Bangladesh
Brunei
China
Hong Kong
India
Indonesia
Japan
Korea
Laos
BRIICS
Macau
Malaysia
Nepal
New Zealand
Pakistan
ASEAN
Singapore
Philippines
Sri Lanka
Taiwan
Thailand
Vietnam
MethodologyProduction Process
• Create aggregated series for the business cycleBusiness Cycle Reference Series
• Detect the business cycle turning points and create binary dummy variable for recession and expansion periods
Business Cycle Turning Points
• Selecting the individual series to be included in the composite indicator
Component Series Selection
• Generate the final series as a weighted average of the individual components
Aggregation
MethodologyComponent Series
United States
Weekly Hours, Overtime
Yield Curve
Jobless Claims
Consumer Confidence Index
Purchasing Managers Index
S&P 500
Malaysia
FTSE Bursa Composite Index
Exchange Rate against USD
Motor Vehicle Sales
Interbank Rate, 3-Month
Palm Oil Spot Price
Indonesia
Cement Consumption
Jakarta Composite Index
Exchange Rate against USD
Motor Vehicle Sales
Exports Value, Non-Oil
Q&A