PRIMER: DIGITAL MUSIKEn introduktion till den digitala musikmarknaden

Innehåll

Housekeeping

The P2P Effect

The Concert Effect

The Singles Effect

Free

Anything but the music

Kryder’s Law

The long tail

We’re sooo f****d

HousekeepingFörst lite bakgrundsfakta

Total musikförsäljning minskar stadigt

Källa: Ars Technica, 2008

Den digitala försäljningen kompenserar inte för minskad CD-försäljning

Vilka olika typer av musiktjänster finns det?

Pay-per-song

Unlimited services

Advertising-supported

Direct-to-customer

Pay-per-song

Pay-per-song är en förlegad affärsmodell som endaste Apple/iTunes klarar av att bära upp, pga iPodens populäritet och marknadsdominans. Visst värde finns förstås för mobiloperatörerna, men enbart som mervärdestjänst.

Unlimited services

Advertising-supported streams

Direct-to-customer

Qtrax fungerar som en direktlänk mellan utgivare och kund. Reklam i utbyte mot nedladdningsbar musik.

Bärbara musikspelare driver efterfrågan

Bärbar spelare Bredband Billigare än skivor

49%50%

62%

Varför väljer du att köpa musik på nätet istället för skivor?

Källa: IFPI/M-Lab Survey, Nov 2006

Drivkrafter för att köpa musik på nätet vs offline

Hitta rätt låt

Valmöjligheter

Pris

Gratis

Lyssna innan köp 22%

23%

39%

58%

62%

Vad är bäst med att köpa musik på nätet?

Källa: Nielsen/NetRatings, 2006

1. The P2P EffectÄr olaglig fildelning orsaken till minskad skivförsäljning?

The P2P Effect?

Digital Music Report 2007 Page 18

Research Shows Legal Actions Are Helping ContainIllegal File-sharing

Recent findings from Jupiter Research in key European markets (UK, Germany,France, Italy, Spain and Sweden) suggestthat IFPI’s legal campaign against large-scale uploaders is having an impact.While broadband household penetrationis rapidly rising, the percentage of internetusers engaged in frequent unauthorisedP2P usage is actually falling.

In Germany, for example, the proportion ofinternet users frequently file-sharingcopyrighted music fell back from 13 percent in 2004 to just eight per cent by 2006.In the UK, 11 per cent of internet usersfrequently engaged in file-sharing in 2004and this remained constant in 2006following a drop in 2005.

When the industry in France announcedimpending action against illegal file-sharers in 2004, the percentage of internetusers engaging in frequent unauthorisedP2P activity fell from 24 per cent to 14 percent. In 2006, following a gap betweenlegal actions, the percentage of frequentunauthorised P2P usage crept back up to21 per cent.

Following on from the highly publicisedlaunch in Stockholm of an internationalwave of actions, the number of Swedishinternet users regularly infringing musiccopyright fell from 24 per cent in 2004 to 14 per cent in 2006.

Internet piracy and the ubiquity of unlicensedmusic have caused enormous problems forthe recording industry as it evolves into thedigital age. The music industry was the first of the modern creative, intellectual property-based industries to feel the impactof the mass availability of its core product forfree. Today the film, TV and news mediaindustries are all grappling with the samedilemma of how to monetise their business in an environment where the maincompetitor is free.

Record companies’ sales and investment inmusic has been severely hit by internet piracyin recent years. Global CD sales fell by 23 percent in value between 2000 and 2005.Experience suggests the problem can becontained by a range of different strategies,but will not be eliminated. In 2006 despite keysuccesses against unauthorised peer-to-peeroperators, networks like Limewire andBitTorrent continued to be massive carriers of copyright theft.

In 2007, the recording industry will besustaining and expanding its programme oflegal actions against file-sharing whileincreasingly focusing on the “gatekeepers”closest to the source of the problem.

Legal Actions Have An Impact

IFPI and affiliate recording industry bodiescontinued the global campaign against

illegal file-sharing in 2006, bringing legalactions against more than 10,000 individualsin 18 countries, including Brazil, Mexico,Poland and Portugal for the first time. Theprincipal aims of the campaign areeducation and deterrence.

Surveys on levels of illegal file-sharing acrossdifferent countries show that legal actions arehaving a clear effect. Studies also show thatfear of legal action is an important factordriving consumers away from unauthorisedP2P. In the US lawsuits were the most citedreason among internet households forchanging from unauthorised P2P to legaldownloading (NPD Group, June 2006).

Actions have been taken against uploaderswho use all the main unauthorised P2Pservices, including BitTorrent, DirectConnect,eDonkey, Gnutella, Limewire, SoulSeek andWinMX. The average legal settlement in thesecases is now 22,420 and people from allwalks of life are affected. In Argentina, onemother made her son sell off his car to payher back the settlement fee.

A recent study in Hong Kong shows that theindustry’s advice to parents about checkingtheir children’s use of the family computer foris also having an impact. Researchers atLingnan University found that more than athird of parents (36%) have advised theirchildren to refrain from illegal downloading inthe last year.

Progress Against Pirate Operations

Copyright, Music And The Education Challenge

DRM Promotes Consumer Flexibility And Protects Content

Containing Piracy

Emerging Business Models

Digital Diversifies Consumer Buying Habits

Portable Players Drive Music Demand

Awareness Grows On Virus And Spyware Risks

Record Companies Boost Consumer Choice

Music On Mobile Grows In Popularity

Online Services Across The World

Digital Market Overview In 2006

Consumers Shape The Future Of Recorded Music

Digital Music In 2007 –A Brave New World

Internet Piracy – The Call To ISPs

SPAIN

13%

32%

16%

35%

0102030405060708090

100

0102030405060708090

0102030405060708090

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

38%

20%

17%4%

5%

25%

39%

20%14% 13%

20% 10%

15%

41%

39%

8%

26%

32%

4%

35%

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

UK GERMANY FRANCE ITALY SPAINMOBILE SINGLEMASTER RINGTONEONLINE ALBUMONLINE SINGLE

4%

UK

38%

20%

17%

21%

GERMANY

25%

39%

20%

11%

FRANCE

20%

10%

15%

41%

14%

ITALY

14%

39%

8%

26%

13%

4%

MOBILE SINGLE OTHERMASTERTONEONLINE ALBUMONLINE SINGLE

PERCENTAGE OF BROADBAND USERS ENGAGED IN FREQUENT ILLEGAL FILE-SHARING

PERCENTAGE OF HOUSEHOLD WITH BROADBAND

INTERNET USERS REGULARLY FILE-SHARING UNAUTHORISED MUSIC

BROADBAND HOUSEHOLD PENETRATION

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

1600

1800

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

1177

964

304

721

926

720

1556

TOTAL UNITSDIGITALPHYSICAL2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 EST

423

821

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 EST

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

87%80%

75%71%

55% 52%

KOREASPAIN FRANCE UK US GERMANY0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

80% 78%75%

71% 70%64%

59%

SPAINKOREA UK GERMANY ITALY FRANCE US

53%

SOUTH KOREA

35%

JAPAN

24%

ITALY

14%

UK

11%

SPAIN

9%

AUSTRALIA

8%

FRANCE

9%

GERMANY

8%

US

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

20

18%

13% 13%12%

11%

7%

3%

UK FRANCE US GERMANY SPAIN ITALY JAPAN

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

50% 49%

42%

22%

PORTABLE PLAYER BRAODBAND CHEAPER THAN CDS VOUCHER

50% 49%

42%

22%

PORTABLE PLAYER BROADBAND CHEAPER THAN CDS VOUCHER

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80

62%

58%

39%

23%

22%

FINDING MUSIC WANTED

VARIETY OF CHOICE

PRICE OF MUSIC

GETTING MUSIC FOR FREE

LISTENING TO SONG CLIPS BEFORE PURCHASE

62%

58%

39%

23%

22%

FINDING MUSIC WANTED

VARIETY OF CHOICE

PRICE OF MUSIC

GETTING MUSIC FOR FREE

LISTENING TO SONG CLIPS BEFORE PURCHASE

18% 18%

17%15% 14%

7%

12%

21%

31%

40%

2002 2003 2004 2005 20060

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

18% 18%17%

15.4% 16%

5%

13%

21%23%

32%

2002 2003 2004 2005 2006

18% 18%15% 15% 14%

7%

12%

21%

31%

40%

2002 2003 2004 2005 2006

05

1015202530354045

0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 55 60 65

5%

Source: Jupiter Research, Sep 2006: UK, France, Germany, Italy,Spain, Sweden.

P2P Usage vs Broadband In Europe

Protecting intellectual property is key togrowing the digital business.

Källa: Jupiter Research, UK, FR, DE, IT, ES, SE; 2006

Olaglig fildelning har ingen effekt på musikförsäljning

The Effect of File Sharing on Record Sales

An Empirical Analysis*

Felix Oberholzer Koleman Strumpf

Harvard Business School UNC Chapel Hill foberholzer@hbs.edu cigar@unc.edu

March 2004

Abstract

A longstanding economic question is the appropriate level of protection for intellectual

property. The Internet has drastically lowered the cost of copying information goods and

provides a natural crucible to assess the implications of reduced protection. We consider

the specific case of file sharing and its effect on the legal sales of music. A dataset

containing 0.01% of the world’s downloads is matched to U.S. sales data for a large

number of albums. To establish causality, downloads are instrumented using technical

features related to file sharing, such as network congestion or song length, as well as

international school holidays. Downloads have an effect on sales which is statistically

indistinguishable from zero, despite rather precise estimates. Moreover, these estimates

are of moderate economic significance and are inconsistent with claims that file sharing

is the primary reason for the recent decline in music sales.

*We thank Shane Greenstein and participants at the 2004 AEA meeting for valuable comments and

suggestions. We also acknowledge Sarah Woolverton for her tireless efforts to improve the quality of our

song matching algorithm and Christina Hsiung Chen for research assistance. The CMJ Network,

Nathaniel Leibowitz, and Nevil Brownlee generously provided us with auxiliary data. Oberholzer-Gee

gratefully acknowledges the financial support of the George F. Baker Foundation. Aural support from

Massive Attack, Sigur Ros and The Mountain Goats is gratefully acknowledged.

“P2P effect on legal music sales not statistically distinguishable from zero”

“The Effect of File Sharing on Record Sales: An Empirical Analysis,” Journal of Political Economy by Felix Oberholzer-Gee and Koleman Strumpf

Två av fem artister vill tillåta fildelning

2. The Concert EffectGår folk på konsert i större utsträckning?

The Concert Effect

2000 2007

$3,1B

$1,7B

Försäljning av konsertbiljetter (US)

Källa: Pollstar, 2007

3. The Singles EffectÄr albumet som format dött?

The Digital Single Effect: från album till singelköp

40%Digitala singlars andel av

total försäljningen

+89%Digitala singlar ökning

från 2007

Källa: Ars Technica, 2008

4. FreeÄr allt gratis i framtiden?

Utvecklingen av olika affärsmodeller

Direct-to-consumer

Advertising-supported Pay-per-song Unlimited services

Gratis är standarden idag!

Undantaget är iTunes

iTunes är störst... … och mest omtyckt

Källa: Ars Technica, 2008

5. Anything but the musicVar finns pengarna om inte i musiken?

Skivförsäljning inte längre primär intäktskälla för artister

33%

67%

Intäkter från förinspelad musikIntäkter från konserter, merchandise, reklamkontrakt

2000

67%

33%

2007

Källa: Music Managers Forum, 2007

Musiktjänster handlar idag om annat än musiklåtar

Sociala nätverk

Artist storefronts

Rekommendationer

Video

Foton

Merchandise

Konsertbiljetter

Liveevents

Kalendarium

Bloggar

Forum

6. Kryder’s LawEn bortglömt men relevant regel.

Kryder’s Law förutspår hårddiskutveckling

1998: 8 GB1999: 15 GB2000: 30 GB2001: 55 GB2002: 100 GB2003: 175 GB2004: 250 GB2005: 450 GB2006: 600 GB2007: 900 GB2008: 1,5 TB

Källa: Scientific American, 2005

“I have all the music from 1950-2010, do you want to copy?”

2009: 2,5 TB2010: 4,5 TB2011: 7 TB2012: 12 TB2013: 20 TB2014: 35 TB2015: 60 TB2016: 100 TB2017: 175 TB2018: 320 TB

Givet att människor vill fylla upp sina musikspelare och hårddiskar blir större och större, måste kostnaden per musiklåt minska.

7. The Long Tail… eller den långa svansen, på engelska.

The Long-tail

Ett begrepp som Chris Anderson myntade i en artikel i tidskriften Wired i oktober 2004. Den långa svansen innebär att via nätverk på Internet ökar marknaden för produkter som tidigare sålde väldigt dåligt.

Två imperativ följer Long-tail-teorin enligt Anderson:

1. Gör allt tillgängligt

2. Hjälp mig hitta det

Typisk Long-tailtjänst: Awdio.com – fokuserar på att livestreama music från boutique hotell, klubbar, restauranger, loungebarer, affärer, etc.

Bevis på long-tailteorin

500Antalet musikaffärer globalt på nätet

Källa: Ars Technica, 2008

8. We’re sooo f****dHar skivbolagen någon framtid överhuvudtaget?

“That was the moment we realised the game was completely up”EMI-chefer kommer till insikt då ungdomar tackar nej till gratis CD-skivor efter fokusgruppmöte

Källa: The Economist, 080110

“Record companies don’t exactly give many artists the warm, fuzzy feeling”Gary Bongiovanni, Pollstar, om att artister inte accepterar 360-kontrakt utan föredrar managementbolag framför skivbolag

360-kontrakt, även kallat multiple-rights eller all-rights-kontrakt, är ett försök från skivbolagen att knyta sig an artister genom kontrakt för procentandelar av intäkter bortom skivförsäljning, vanligtvis konserter, merchandise och reklamkontrakt.

Källa: The Economist, 080110

Artister vill inte vara vän med skivbolagen

DRM inte längre en het potatis

Droppat DRM: EMI, Universal, Sony, Microsoft, Wal-Mart, Amazon...

DRM kommer att överleva, dock mer som “damage control” eftersom onlineförsäljning av musik inte kan kompensera för minskad skivförsäljning

Största skälet för musikbranschen att droppa DRM är att underminera Apples förhandlingsposition, som genom iTunes egna DRM, Fair Play, är bättre än skivbolagen (som en gång i tiden insisterade på DRM). Detta är en av anledningarna till att Apple nu tittar på olika abonnemangslösningar för iTunes Store.

Digital Rights Management = olika teknologier som gör det möjligt för utgivare (t.ex. skivbolag och musikaffärer på nätet) att

kontrollera spridningen av musik, film, ringsignaler, etc.

Skivbolagen försöker förnya sig...

Digitalisering av gamla kataloger

Digital-only album-releaser

Direktförsäljning

Downloads av hög ljudkvalitet

"As we analyze the industry’s core challenges... we consistently find that the industry has lost the ability to influence and control its future. Worse, the industry has often appeared caught short, and its reactions accordingly wrong-footed.”

Rapport om musikindustrins framtid, gjord av mediaresearchföretaget Ender Analysis

.. men de agerar fel och för kortsiktigt

Kommer musikbloggar att bli de nya skivbolagen?

Källa: The Media Futurist