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Basics of Financial Modeling - Financial Statement Analysis, Excel Functions (vlookup, sum, indirect, offset, column, iserr, if, datevalue, concatenate, etc. Forecasting sales, Cost breakdown, cash flow & expenses, sensitivity table, weighted average shares, rolling averages.
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2013 瑪亞學院 系列講座
Financial Modeling
財務模型實務
蔡鴻德執行長 瑪亞投資有限公司 Markis Capital Limited
Financial Statements Analysis 2
Ratios Analysis
Over Time
Vs. Peers
vs. Metrics
3
Financial Statements
• A measure of "flow"
• Aka Profit & Loss Statement
• 2 Typical Styles
Income Statement
• A measure of "flow"
• 3 components – Operating Investing, Financing
• 2 styles of Operating CF
Cash Flow Statement
• A "snapshot"
• 3 components – Assets, Liabilities, and Equity Balance Sheet
• A measure of "flow" / change
• Indicates changes in shareholders equity
Shareholders' Equity (Optional)
Functions 4
VLOOKUP(Match()) 5
=VLOOKUP($A7,Q_Actual!$1:$65536,MATCH(L$1,
Q_Actual!$1:$1),FALSE)/1000
SUM(INDIRECT…. 6
=SUM(INDIRECT("Semi!"&"R"&ROW()&"C"&F$6,FAL
SE):INDIRECT("Semi!"&"R"&ROW()&"C"&F$7,FALSE)
)
F$6 = Columnstart
F$7 = Columnend
=SUM(INDIRECT("A2:A" & B1))
SUM(OFFSET()) 7
SUM( OFFSET( )) calculates the sum of the cell or range of cells returned by the OFFSET( ) function
=SUM(OFFSET(A1,0,0,n,1)) If n = 10, then it sums A1:A10 =SUM(OFFSET(A1,0,0,1,n)) If n = 10, then it sums A1:J1 =SUM(OFFSET(A1,0,0,n,y)) If n = 5 and y = 10, then it sums A1:J5
Standard Quarterly Tables 8
Reported vs. Estimates
New vs. Old Estimates (Estimate Revisions)
Quarterly Changes (YoY, QoQ, Margins)
Earnings Bridge
Sales Breakdown Pie Chart
P&Q Column & Line Chart
P&Q Column & Line Chart 9
Formatting 10
First Column "n.m"
=IF(COLUMN()=2,"n.m.",C98-B98)
Estimates vs. Reported Variance
=IF(ISERR(P6-Q6),"n.a.",P6-Q6)
% Difference
=IF(Q6<0,(IF(P6>0,"n.m",-(P6/Q6-1))),P6/Q6-1)
Concatenate, Right, Left, Mid
Shorter version: =DATEVALUE(C2&"-"&B2&"-"&D2)
Usages 11
Forecasting Sales 12
YoY/QoQ % Growth By Geography
By Business Units
Market Share (%) By Product
P x Q Capacity * Utilization Rate * Yield = Quantity
Unit Price & FX Rate = Price
Incremental Sales LY Sales + New Stores * Sales / New Stores
Monthly Sales
Cost Breakdown 13
Create Pie Chart of Cost Breakdown – typical cost
structures
Fixed Costs, Variable Costs, Semi-Variable Costs
Raw Materials, WIP, Finished Goods
Overhead
Depreciation
Cash Flow & Expenses 14
The Relationship between Depreciation & Capital
Expenditures
The Choice of Operating Leases, Capital Leases, and
Purchasing
Sensitivity Table 15
What-if Analysis
Data Table
Column vs. Row
DCF sensitivity table
Terminal value growth
### 0.5% 1.5% 2.5% 3.5% 4.5%
8% 3.7 5.1 7.0 9.7 13.9
9% 5.8 7.8 10.7 15.2 23.4
10% 5.8 7.8 10.7 15.2 23.4
11% 3.7 5.1 7.0 9.7 13.9
12% 1.0 1.7 2.7 3.9 5.5
WA
CC
Weighted Average Shares 16
=(A)*((D)/360)*(C)+(B
)*(1-((D)/360)-(E)
=D31*(D36/360)+D35*
(E36/360)+E35*(F36/36
0)+F35*(G36/360)
Shares (2330)
Dividend day 04/06/14
Shares before ex-dividend (A) 202,666,190
Shares after ex-dividend (B) 233,765,970
Split mulitplier (C) 0.8765
Day in dividend (1-360) (D) 163
WAVG (without cutting SHBS) 232,614,053
Shares held by subsidiaries ( E) 443,304
Weighted average of shares 232,170,749
Shares (2615)
Dividend day 2008/1/31 2008/8/14 2008/11/5
Shares before ex-dividend (i) 20,722,915 20,783,578 21,822,757
Surplus capital 0 1,039,179 0
CB 60,663 0 0
Cancellation of treasury stock 0 0 47,025
Shares after ex-dividend (ii) 20,783,578 21,822,757 21,775,733
Day in dividend (1-360) (iii) 29 194 81 56
Weighted average of shares 21,166,842
Rolling Average 17
Useful in filling in missing data between data points
=(C27-C15)/12+C15
蔡鴻德 (Teddy H. Tsai) 董事暨執行長 (Director & CEO)
801 高雄市前金區大同二路20號9樓之2
電話: +886-7-241-2329 分機 123 手機: 0910723698
電子郵件: [email protected] 網站: http://www.markis.tw
Q&A
18