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How to analyse the financial statements of a public company.
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I. 两条原则
II. 三种报表
III. 五个问题
财务分析模板
IV. 财务分析的步骤
V. 财务分析的局限
目录
1、两个原则
原则一：
现金为王 — 而非利润
原则二：
管理者与企业所有者的目标并不完全一致
—“委托代理理论”
两条原则
损益表
资产负债表
现金流量表
2、三种报表
财务报表的Timing
2.1 损益表 The Income Statement
Sales － Expenses ＝ Profits
2.1 损益表 The Income Statement
2.2 资产负债表 The Balance Sheet Total assets ＝ total liabilities (debt) ＋ total shareholders’ equity
2.2 资产负债表 The Balance Sheet 运营资本：
Gross working capital = Current assets
Net working capital = Current assets － Current liabilities
Operating working capital = Current assets － Non-interest-bearing current liabilities
2.3 现金流量表 The Balance Sheet Profits and cash flows are not the same thing！
accrual basis accounting （ 权责发生制 ）a method of accounting whereby revenue is recorded when it is earned, whether or not the revenue has been received in cash. Likewise, expenses are recorded when they are incurred, even if the money has not actually been paid out.
cash basis accounting 现金收付制会计；收付实现制会计
现金流的计算：直接法
2.3 现金流量表 The Balance Sheet free cash flows the amount of cash available from operations after
the firm pays for the investments it has made in operating working capital and fixed assets. This cash is available to distribute to the firm’s creditors and owners.
To measure a firm’s free cash flows, we should understand that two key
business areas affect cash flows:
1. The cash flow earned from the firm’s operations, or normal operating
activities. If the cash flow from the firm’s operations is positive, it adds to the
business’s cash flows, but if it is negative, it reduces the business’s cash
flows.
2. The firm’s additional investments in (1) operating working capital and (2)
fixed assets and other long-term assets
2.3 现金流量表 The Balance Sheet The cash flows patterns
Cash flow pattern 1. Cash flow pattern 1 represents the cash flow pattern of a company ,which has (1) positive cash flows from operations, (2) negative investment cash flows, both for working capital and long-term assets, resulting in a positive free cash flow overall. Given the positive free cash flows, the firm will have negative financing cash flows. How would we describe this company? It is a firm that is using a large part of its cash flows from operations to grow the firm’s operations and a smaller amount to return cash flow to the investors.
Cash flow pattern 2. In cash flow pattern 2, the firm is generating positive cash flows from operations and selling assets to pay down debt and/or pay owners. How would we describe this company? It is a firm that is downsizing the business by selling its assets and using the proceeds (along with its cash flows from operations) to pay down debt and/or equity. Perhaps the firm is anticipating that the demand for its products will be lower in the future, so it is eliminating some of its debt in an effort to prepare for harder times.
Cash flow pattern 3. Cash flow pattern 3 depicts a firm that is experiencing negative cash flows from operations and negative cash flows from growing the business, all of which is being financed by the firm’s investors. This firm could be an early-stage company that has not reached a break-even point in its operations and at the same time is growing the company in anticipation of future returns. Alternatively it could simply be a company in financial trouble.
Cash flow pattern 4. Cash flow pattern 4 describes a company that is encountering cash flow problems from operations, which are being covered both by selling assets and by borrowing more and/or acquiring more equity financing.
3、五个问题
1. How liquid is the firm? Can it pay the bills?
2. Are the firm’s managers generating adequate operating profits on the company’s assets?
3. How is the firm financing its assets?
4. Are the firm’s managers providing a good return on the capital provided by the shareholders?
5. Are the firm’s managers creating shareholder value?
五个问题
Economic Value Added (EVA™)
In the field of corporate finance, economic values added is a way to determine the value created, above the required return, for the shareholders of a company.
The firm‘s market value added, or MVA, is the discounted sum of all future expected economic value added.
财务分析的步骤
One• Establish objectives of the analysis.
Two
• Study the industry in which firm operates and relate industry
climate to current and projected economic developments.
Three• Develop knowledge of the firm and the quality of management.
Four
• Evaluate financial statements.
• Tools | Major Areas
Five
• Summarize findings based on analysis and reach conclusions
about firm relevant to the established objectives.
Earnings Problems
Decreased Cash Flow
Too Much Debt
Inability to Collect Receivables
Buildup of Inventories
Trends of Sales, Inventory, and Reveivables
财务分析中关注的异常状况
3、财务分析的局限
1. 有时候很难判断，一家公司应该属于哪个行业；
2. 行业平均或竞争对手的公开数据只是近似值；
3. 行业平均指标并不一定是最合意的目标值或规范；
4. 不同的公司会选用不同的会计操作规范；
5. 财务指标可能会过高或过低；
6. 许多公司的运营会有季节性波动。
财务分析的局限
谢 谢！
