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Key trends affecting manufacturing, health care, emerging markets, industrial processes including industrial gas consumption, future of natural gas, methane, hydrogen, oxygen, helium and other gases used in manufacturing. Future of green tech innovation including solar power, wind power, energy storage. Future of auto industry, car design, car fuels of the future. Lecture by Patrick Dixon for Air Liquide, delivered at London Business School with simulcast to 5 sites across Europe and Asia.
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Dr Patrick Dixon Chairman Global Change Ltd http://www.globalchange.com
SustainAgility Six Faces of the Future and
what they mean for Air Liquide
Related Issues !
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Agile Ideas 2
ONE WORD will drive the
future
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Strategies overtaken by SPEED of events
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World can change faster than you can hold a board meeting
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You need more than
one strategy
Huge bets on future price
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Speed Agility
Simplicity
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Future of global
economy
WGP 1980-‐2013 (%,constant prices)
US GDP 1980-‐2013 (%,constant prices)
EU GDP 1980-‐2013 (%,constant prices)
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£1 trillion debt 33% bought back
Vietnam GDP 1985-‐2011
$3.4 trillion !
$2.4 trillion !
Reserves
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So what is single word
that drives the future ?
The future is aboutEMOTION
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300 million move to cities in China and 475 million to cities in Africa by 2030
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>40% WDP by 2015� IMF - adjusted for Purchasing Power Parity
Emissions
1 billion over 60s in 10 years
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Europe Dying !
4 couples to produce single great-grand child !
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1 million over 90 in Italy by 2026
Can we stop ageing ?
1 week in 4
Read Human Genome in 1 Hour for $1000 ($100 million in 2000)
Print new organs
Print new skin
Home health monitoring
Home Oxygen
$2bn a year by 2018
Treatment which restores and maintains the youthful elasticity of hardened arteries, improves heart failure – and helps wrinkled skin.
• Pigs teeth grown inside rats
• Mice grow new teeth from nerve cells / gum tissue
Grow New Teeth
Repair of heart or brain damage following coronary / stroke
using adult stem cells
Repair Heart / Brain
Monkeys on diet live longer• After 20 years - 80% alive v 50% on normal calories • Less cancer, diabetes, heart disease, strokes, brain decay
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Slow or no ageing is a reality
• Rockfish, Turtles, some Whales !
• No signs of getting old
Rougheye rockfish (Sebastes aleutianus) — 205 years Aldabra Giant Tortoise — 255 years Lobsters are believed to live 100 or more years Ocean Quahog clam — 405 years
Some animals do not seem to “age” in normal way
!Tribes are basis of all brands, communities,
teams, family belonging!- as well as nationalism
and separatism
1 trillion pages a month !
e-‐commerce hits $1.5 trillion
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MOBILE Mobile influenced most sales in N Europe in 2013
50% of all UK online sales are using mobile
LocaWon MarkeWng !
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is next BIG THING
• Zettabyte = 1024 Exabytes Exabyte = 1024 Petabytes Petabyte = 1024 Terabytes Terabytes = 1024 Gigabytes
BIG Data
End of loud mass markeWng quiet advice on your journey of life
Rebalancing Portfolio
Global Manufacturing!
SCALE!!
Tata Group owns Jaguar in UK!Russia will be largest car maker in Europe!
New factories in Turkey, Indonesia, Africa, Brazil
VW mega platformVW Mega Pla^orm -‐ basis for 1 m cars
• Body Level One
• Body Level Two
• Body Level Three
• Body Level Four
• Body Level Five
Shorter global supply chains
Nearshoring Boom
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Manufacturing in Mexico will grow for US market
$40 Trillion Green Tech Boom driven by oil price, cost cuts, green activism
Shale gas 33% US supplies
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200 years global supply Up from 60 years in 5 years
�30 million acres lost
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�EU 5% gasoline and diesel from food
25% of 2010 US grain à
30% US grain burnt in cars
LPG -‐ huge growth in India
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Hydrogen
Gimmick or Reality
Hydrogen Cars Arriving !!
Toyota, Hyundai, Honda (60% denser energy pack with 33%
size reduction in 7 years)
Problems with supply, storage, miles per kg of gas
Why e-‐cars have a great future
VW latest hybrid emits only 21g per km - XLJ
(check)
Why pay for two engines ?
GM Volt -‐ Ba`ery Life
Average driver uses ba`ery 82% of Wme even with range of only 38 miles
US total sales e-‐vehicles Hybrids and All-‐Electric Dec 2010 -‐ June 2014
Electric car sales off-target !
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Germany: “1 million by 2020”!Nissan Leaf: selling 20,000 a year, but factory capacity for
150,000 a year!!
>20,000 a year - out of $42m factory!
e-‐car Formula Racing
Be`er Ba`eries
How green are electric cars ?!
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France: 8g CO2 / km (mainly nuclear) !!
India: >120g C02 / km (mainly coal)!!
Future: 0g CO2 / km (focussed light)
120,000 terawatts of sunlight /day 7,000 times total global power use Power Moscow from Libyan Desert
“40% EU power = wind by 2050” Surplus wind to hydrogen - to methane ?
120,000 terawatts of sunlight /day 7,000 times total power use
Power whole Europe from 20km x 80km desert
Supergrids Smartgrids
Solar cell generation parity
Solar Cells $ /wa` 1990-‐2015
subsidies
Price Parity
Nuclear energy -‐ expect growth�Doubly hard to cut carbon emissions AND cut nuclear �Wild card = dirty terror bomb or another meltdown �Mining uranium in future from sea water using today’s technology
Balancing Supply and Demand !
•10% capacity used 4 days a year in Australia •Average $50 à peak $10,000 per MWhr
Managing Peak GeneraWon!
• In June 2013 electricity prices in Germany became negaWve -‐ EU150 / MWhr
Enough salt caverns to power germany for a week
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1 million car ba`eries provide added storage for naWonal grid
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Burning carbon in pure oxygen for easy capture of CO2
Smart heating or cooling Save 30-50% energy - payback 4 years
New Street Lamps save 3%
naWonal energy
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Gas will play a central role in future energy mix: greater carbon
efficiency by replacing coal, and more agility in
balancing!
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Beyond Compliance
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Future revenue from green legislation Rapid change in regulation and public mood
Who cares about the new strategy?
teams and customers need to feel it ma`ers
COST CUTTING
Can be demoralising
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Why should they grow ?
do things you really believe in
Life is Short
IMAGINATION
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�For individuals
�For family
�For community
�For whole earth
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Building a Better WorldConnecting with passion for life
Dr Patrick Dixon Chairman Global Change Ltd
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http://www.globalchange.com 5 MILLION VIDEO VIEWS
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�How did you feel ? �Immediate thoughts �Big questions
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Groups
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�Key issues impacting strategy �Major opportunities
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