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  • 1. Weekly Chart Book August 2, 2013 Global ClientsGlobal Portfolios

2. 2 Accuvest Weekly Update Global Financial Conditions Global Financial Conditions have improved, stress has moderated nicely since the Taper Tantrum Macro Risk and Financial Market Stress have decreased since June 24th The VIX Index (implied S&P 500 volatility) closed @ 11.98, new 3 month lows The Economy Global Manufacturing PMI edged up 0.2 points to 50.8 in July, rounding out the eighth straight month of expansion (above 50) Developed economies, mostly the U.S. and Europe, are leading global expansion United Kingdom PMI rose to its highest level since March 2011 Eurozone PMI climbed into expansion territory for the first time in two years Japan PMI dropped 1.6 points in July, the first decline this year and in-line with a recent slump in Industrial Production Nearly all the countries that posted PMI declines in July were emerging economies Of all the BRICs, only India remains in expansion territory, at 50.1 Mexico and Turkey PMIs slipped into negative/contraction territory in July Relative to other emerging economies, Poland and the Czech Republic are showing economic strength Next weeks U.S. economic calendar includes data on ISM Non-Mfg, Mortgage Apps, and Trade Balance Interest Rates and Fixed Income 10 year US Treasury Yields closed the week at 2.60%, down from 2.70% on Thursday and up from 2.48% last week Investment Grade and High Yield Bonds sold off with Treasuries this week, down -0.4% and -0.1%, respectively Investment Grade credit spreads remain narrow, currently at 1.70% High Yield credit spreads remain narrow, currently at 3.40%, down from 4.42% on June 24th 3. 3 Accuvest Weekly Update Global Equity Markets The S&P 500, DJIA, DJ Transports, and Russell 2000 hit new all-time highs in July, its a U.S. bull market until proven otherwise The S&P 500 was up 4.9% in July, bringing YTD gains to 18.2%, capping the best first seven months of the year since 1997 Post WWII data shows that after gaining at least 15% through July (12 cases), the S&P 500 has an average loss of -1.54% in August After diverging in H1 2013, the gap between equity prices and fundamentals has narrowed on better than expected economic data Recent market gains have come on zero earnings growth, and estimates for Q3 and Q4 U.S. earnings growth are 16%, and 27% Major Currencies All major currencies are weaker relative to the USD over the last 6 months MXN/USD @ 12.66, strengthening to close the week USD/EUR @ 1.33, strengthening from 1.28 on July 9th USD/AUD @ 0.89, weakening sharply on the week and making new lows JPY/USD @ 98.94, weakening from 98.21 last week, primary support @ 103.57 Commodities Commodities (an equally weighted basket) remain in a cyclical downtrend, but recently made higher lows Gold @ $1312/oz., up from $1200/oz. on June 27th. If key resistance at $1330/oz. is broken Gold could rally to $1415/oz. The Gold to Gold Miners Ratio spiked this week, and is now back above its 50 Day Moving Average Crude Oil @ $106.94/barrel, struggling with resistance @ $108/barrel disclosure: The opinions expressed in this Weekly Chart Book report are those of the author. The materials and commentary are strictly informational and should be used for research use only. This bulletin is not intended to provide investing or other advice or guidance with respect to the matters addressed in the bulletin. All relevant facts, including individual circumstances, need to be considered by the reader to arrive at investment conclusions that comply with matters addressed in this bulletin. Charts and information used in this report are sourced from Bloomberg. 4. 4 Accuvest ETF Heat Map 5. 5 US Financial Conditions 6. 6 Developed Markets 7. 7 Emerging Markets 8. 8 The VIX Index (S&P 500 Implied Volatility) 9. 9 Global Financial Stress Index 10. 10 Citi Macro Risk Index 11. 11 US Yield Curve (Current vs. 1 Month & 12 Months Ago) 12. 12 U.S. Treasury 10 Year Yield 13. 13 U.S. Treasury 10 Year Yield Forecast 14. 14 Investment Grade Bond Prices 15. 15 Investment Grade Credit Spread (BBB 10 Yr. UST Yield) 16. 16 High Yield Bond Prices 17. 17 High Yield Credit Spreads (HY 10 Yr. UST Yield) 18. 18 30 Year Mortgage Rates 19. 19 World Equity Indices 20. 20 MSCI All Country World Index 21. 21 S&P 500 Index 22. 22 MSCI EAFE (Europe, Australia, Far East) Index 23. 23 MSCI Emerging Markets Index 24. 24 Global Heat Map Sectors & Regions YTD 25. 25 S&P 500 Earnings Estimates (Forward 12 Months) 26. 26 Last weeks Economic Calendar 27. 27 Next weeks Economic Calendar 28. 28 Economic Surprise Monitor 29. 29 Economic Surprise Index (Deviation from Expectations) 30. 30 Global Manufacturing PMI 31. 31 Eurozone Manufacturing PMI 32. 32 US Manufacturing PMI 33. 33 World Currencies vs. U.S. Dollar (6 Month Spot Returns) 34. 34 World Currencies vs. U.S. Dollar (Spot Forecast: Q4 2013) 35. 35 US Dollar Index 36. 36 Euro 37. 37 Japanese Yen 38. 38 Australian Dollar 39. 39 Mexican Peso 40. 40 Emerging Market Currencies 41. 41 Global Commodity Prices 42. 42 Continuous Commodity Index 43. 43 Gold 44. 44 Gold to Gold Miners Ratio 45. 45 Crude Oil 46. 46 Gasoline Prices (Regular/Unleaded)