61000135 dod 1

MINISTRY OF DEFENCE OF UKRAINE DEFENCE INTELLIGENCE OF UKRAINE

THE ASSESSMENT OF SITUATION ON TEMPORARILY OCCUPIED TERRITORIES OF UKRAINE AND AROUND

UKRAINE (as of Aug. 29, 2016)

2

The situation around Ukraine and in the temporarily occupied territories of Donetsk and Luhansk regions, as well as in the Crimea

is characterized by:

increase of Russian military power in Western and South-Western strategic directions, in immediate proximity to the state border of Ukraine

serious violations of the Minsk Agreement concerning ceasefire regime and withdrawal of heavy weapons from the line of contact by Russia, as well as overall supply of Russian

occupation troops in the East of Ukraine

large-scale military-demonstrative measures of Russia, which are aimed at convincing the West and NATO that Moscow is ready to defend its own

interests, e.g. with the use of military power

build-up of the Russian Joint Task Forces in the temporarily occupied Autonomous Republic of Crimea and deployment of strike weapons to the peninsula

DEFENCE INTELLIGENCE OF UKRAINE

MINISTRY OF DEFENCE OF UKRAINE



The Situation in the Temporarily Occupied Territories of the East of

Ukraine

Stakhanov

1st AC 2nd AC Total

Personnel 20000 14600 34600Tanks 279 196 475Armored combat vehicles 529 419 948

Howitzers/guns 360 402 762Multiple Launch Rocket Systems 122 86 208

sep. tank Bn

1st sep. SF Bn

sep. SAM Bnsep. recon Bn

sep. tank Bn sep. SAM Bnsep. recon Bn

Horlivka

Makiivka

Komsomolske

Novoazovsk

3rd sep. SF Bn

4

Sloviansk direction

Donetsk direction

Mariupol direction

sep. Comdt Regt Krasnyi Luch

LUHANSK

RUSSIA

UKRAINE

100th sep.MRBde

Sep.arty Bde

2nd sep. MRBde

1st sep. MRBde

sep. Comdt Regt

(Marines)

sep. arty Bde

5th sep. MRBde

11th sep.MRRegt

3rd sep. MRBde

DONETSK

Alchevsk

4 rd sep. MRBde

6th sep.MRRegt

7th sep.MRBde

Debaltseve

9thsep.Asl MR Regt

1st AC

2nd AC

Personnel of 1st AC & 2nd AC:

Russian citizen, among them 70%

Russian organic servicemen 45% Russian mercenaries 25%Ukrainian mercenaries 30%

Dislocation of the 1st and 2nd AC of the Center of Territorial Forces of the Southern MD of Russia



5

1204

1661 1549 1571

633

1371

1935

1199

489 523 521285

95

339621

324

640

955794

922

270534

826572

75183 234

364268

498 488303

total Slovians'k Donetsk direction other directions

During July-August 2016, the average intensity of shelling and assault operations of Russia, including the

use of heavy weaponry, has substantially increased

Minsk Agreements Violations by Russia(number of shelling)



Verified cases of Russia’s noncompliance with the Minsk Agreements

Period

Weapons and military equipment withdrawal zones

Overall15 km

for tanks,

mortars

25 km for arty sys

more than

100mm

35 km for

MLRS

70 km for MLRS and ATacMS

Number of violations

January 52 43 26 0 121February 60 49 34 1 144

March 50 62 30 0 142April 63 73 26 0 162May 65 66 35 2 168June 72 82 45 1 200July 64 143 55 0 262

August 40 79 27 1 147



6

Tanks – 22Towing vehicles – 7 Armored combat vehicles – 16Other military vehicles – 59

7

June 23, 2016: Southern part of Donetsk, 14.7 km from the line of contact

Facts of Hiding Heavy Equipment (weapon) Near the Line of Contact

Donetsk

Line of contact

Distance 15 km



Ilovaisk

TaganrogRostov-na-Donu

Matveev Kurgan

Uspenka

LUHANSK Izvaryne

Kamyansk-Shachtynskyi

MarynivkaUKRAINERUSSIAN FEDERATION

Russia’s Supplies of Weapons, Military Equipment, Ammunition

and Other Materials to Ukraine

Dovzhanskyi

Rovenky

Кадіївка

Dyakove

Novoshachtynskyi

Дебальцеве Antratsyt

Makiivka

Кальміуське

Alchevsk

8

Kuibysheve

Novoazovsk

DONETSK

Amount of ammunition and fuel, oil and lubricants (FOL), supplied from Russia to Ukraine (per

month)



Amount of weapons and equipment, supplied from Russia to Ukraine (per month)

“Buhayivka training area”

“Mospyne training area”

9

“Karlo-Marksove training area”

“Shymshynivka training area”

“Buhayivka training area”

“Uspenka training area”

“Mospyne training area”

Operational training of the4th SepMRBde, 6th SepMRRgt, 2nd

АC

“Karlo-Marksove training area”

Operational training of the 3rd SepMRBde, 1st АC

“Torez training area”

“Torez training range”

“Uspenka training area”

“Markine training area”

Operational training of the 1st & 5th SepMRBdes, units SF, 1st

AC

Tactical exercises were conducted by the 5th SepMRBdes, Sep. tank Bn,

Sep. recon Bn, 1st АC

“Solntsevo training area”

“Solntsevo training area”

Operational training of the 1st SepMRBde, 1st AC

Operational training of 4th SepMRBde, 6th SepMRRgt, 2nd АC

“Shymshynivka training area”

Operational training of the 9th Sep. Asl MR (M) Regt, 1st AC

“Markine training area”

“Amvrosiyivka training area”

Operational training of the battalion and company tactical

groups of the regular combat units AF RF

“Amvrosiyivka training area”

Tactical exercises were conducted by the 2nd

SepMRBde, 2nd АC

“Kruglyk training range”“Kruglyk training area”

Operational training of theSep. tank Bn, 2nd АC

RUSSIA

UKRAINE

LUHANSK

DONETSK

“Krasnyi Luch training range”

Operational training of the Sep.Arty Bde, 1st АC & Sep.Arty

Bde, 2nd АC

“Krasnyi Luch training area”

Combat Trainings of Russian Occupation Forces in the East of Ukraine



2nd AC

1st AC

Combat Training of the Tank Company of the 5th Separate Motorized Brigade, 1st Army Corps

“Pokrovka” Military Range, south-western outskirts of Pokrovka, Donetsk region, July 8, 2016, 14.2 km from the line of contact

Tanks – 11 Armored combat vehicles – 6Other military vehicles – 1

Tents – 2

10

Khartsyzk

Distance 15 km

Pokrovka



New Appointments of Top Military Commanders of the Southern and Western Military Districts, Russian Federation

11



Lt.Gen.Gurulev A.V.

Deputy Commander, Southern Military

District

Maj.Gen. Kuzovlev S.U.

58th Army Commander, Southern Military

District

Maj.Gen.Nikiforov E.V.

20th Army Commander,Western Military

District

In 2014-2015 – Commander of the 12th

Reserve Command, Southern Military District (as of today – Center of

Territorial Forces)

In 2014-2015 – Commander of the Russian Occupation troops in Ukraine

In 2015-2016 – Commander of the 2nd Army Corps, Center of

Territorial Forces, Southern Military district



Situation in the Temporary Occupied Territories of the Autonomous Republic

of Crimea and Sevastopol

NB

The Structure of Russian Joint Forces in the Autonomous Republic of CrimeaAir Force

Fixed Wing Bombers Fixed Wing Attackers Fixed Wing Fighters Army aviation BSF Naval aviation

Land Forces

BSF Marines BSF Coastal Defense

Airborne unit

Air Defense

Assault forces(large & small ships)

Navy

Strike forces(missile & artillery

ships)

Maritime security forces (antisubmarine

& minesweepers)

BSF Subsurface combatants BSF Surface combatants

68 engregt

43 avregt

318 avregt

27 av div

38 avregt F

39 hel regt

18 AD regt

37 avregt

127 recbde126

CDbde8

avregt

3 EWregt4 NBCregt

1229 SIGINT Center

744 signal center

224 C2bat475 EW center

758 log center

205 sp ship squad

519 rec ships div

Yevpatoriya

Perevalne

Belbek

Kacha

Saky

Feodosia

Dzhankoi

Sevastopol

Gvardiyske

Simferopol

КВМБ

CD

NBC

BSF

BSF Av

388 SIGINTreg

t

12 ADregt

1096 ADregt

810 marbde4 submbde

15 CDbde

68 MSSbde

41 MSbde

197 AsS div

30 sur div

31 AD div

11 ASbde

133 maintbde



13

Russia’s military capacity in Crimeaas of August 2016

70,000

258

742

229

170

115

6

105

4

12,500

–

92

24

22

37

–

26

2

43,000

100

1,150

400

150

95

33

7

50

29,300

40

583

162

101

56

30

5

16

14

At the moment of separation of the USSR Black Sea

fleet (May 1997)

Before the Russia’s

annexation of Crimea

(January 2014)

After illegal annexation

(August 2016)

Future plans of Russia

till 2020-2025

DEFENCE INTELLIGENCE

UKRAINE MINISTRY OF DEFENCE

15



Bucharest

Kyiv

Istambul

Varna

Donetsk

Odesa

Sinop

Kishinev

Constanca

Sevastopol

120 km

280 km

320 km

420 km

15 SepCorbr

battalion of CMS “Bastion”battalion of CMS

“Utyos”

BSF

Ukraine

Russiabattalion of CMS “Bal”

Zaporizhzhya

15

LegendStriking distance for land targets by “Bastion” systemStriking distance for sea targets by “Bastion” systemStriking distance for “Utes” system

Striking distance for “Bal”

Striking Range of15th Separate Coastal Defence Missile Bde of Russian Black Sea

Fleet

Military trainings

NB

NB

NB

Ukraine

Romania

Bulgaria

Airborne assault operation in the Black Sea region

Date Air C4ISR S&R aircrafts Strike aircrafts

04/14/2016 А-50U Su-24МR Su-24МR , Tu-160

04/26/2016 Il-20М Tu-22М3

06/08/2016 А-50U Tu-22М3

06/23/2016 Tu-22М3

The aim is to demonstrate Russian capabilities to block Black Sea straits and destroying of NATO battle ship groups

16

Blocking straits by missile strikes

Blocking NATO naval forces in bases

Turkey

52 aRegt 127 aRegt

4 3 r d s e p n a v a t k a v n r e g t

US NavyUSS “Porter”

А-50U

4 Tu-22М3

А-50U

2 Tu-22М32 Ту-160

4 Su-27

4 Su-24

Missile strikes

Russia

Sinop

Zolundak

Samsun

Eregli NB

OrduTrabzon

4 Tu-22М3

ShaykovkaEngels

Saky

Constanca

Burgas

Varna



Тактико-технические характеристики ОТРК 9К720 “Искандер-М”

Sevastopol

Simferopol

Dzhankoi

Situation in the Northern Regions of the Autonomous Republic of Crimea

ArmyanskChongar

Solone Ozero

Units of the 810th separate marines brigade (Sevastopol) and the 126th separate costal defence brigade (Perevalne) have been relocated to the Northern parts of Crimea (since August 10, 2016)

The personnel of battalion tactical group of the 247th air-assault regiment (Stavropol) changed personnel of battalion tactical group of the 11th separate air-assault brigade (Ulan-Ude) (on August 11, 2016)

RTC 247th airborne regtRTC 31st airborne assault Bde

17

112 обрОп

Helicopters Мі-8 and UAVs provide air patrol, regularly violating the administrative border with Crimea.

Units of the 112th separate operative purpose brigade (Simferopol) were deployed near Dzhankoi and Armyansk cities (on August 7, 2016)



Perevalne



Su-30СМ

Su-30М2

Su-34

Strengthening the Russian Joint Task Force in Crimea

№ Name To be put in service

1 «Admiral Grigorovich»

transferred in 2016

2 «Admiral Essen» transferred in 2016

3 «Admiral Makarov» 2016

18

Missile ship type 21631

Frigate type 11356

NB

37th comp avn regt43rd sep nav atk avn r e g t

“Triumph” S-400 SAM

Yevpatoria

Saky

Hvardiyske

Simferopol

Feodosia

Sevastopol

BelbekKacha

27th comp avn div

38th ftr avn regt30th warship div

11th ASW Bde197th AMHP Bde

18th SAM regt


1 «Zeleniy Dol» transferred in 2015

2 «Serpukhov» transferred in 2015

3 «Vishniy Volocheck» 2017


1 B-261 «Novorosiysk»

transferred in 2015

2 B-237 «Rostov-na-Donu»

transferred in 2015

3 B-262 «Staryi Oskol»

transferred in 2016

4 B-265 «Krasnodar» 2016-2017

5 B-268 «Velikii Nongorod» 2016-2017

6 B-271 «Kolpino» 2017

Submarine type 636.3



Increasing Russia’s Military Presence in Western and South-Western Directions

Boguchar

Novocherkask

Voronizh

Moscow

RUSSIA

UKRAINE

2 MRDiv

147th SP art regt1117th AAM regt1st TRegt

15th TRegt

283rd MR regt

1st TRegt 12th TRegt 13th TRegt275th SP art regt538th AAM regt

4th TDiv

14th TRegt423rd MR Regt

Russian leadership forms new units and renews disembodied ones in the Western and South-Western Strategic Directions

KalininetsNaro-Fominsk

In Western Military District:reorganized – 20th Armyformed – 1st Tank Armyrenewed – 11th Army Corpsplanned to renew – 22nd Army

144th MCDiv

150th MRD

Nizhniy Novgorod

22nd Army

9th MRBde

1st TA

20th Army

CTF

Valuyki

23d MRBde

In Southern Military District:is forming – 150th Motorized Rifle Div 1st АC

2nd AC

Donetsk

Lugansk

3 MRDiv

BELARUS

Units:

existing

in a formation

Kaliningrad

11th AC

28th MRBde

Smolensk

Klintsi



20

20th Army144th MRDiv; 9th, 23rd

SepMRBde, 448th GMBde; 53rd AAMBde;

1st Tank Army4th TDiv; 2nd MRDiv; 6th SepTBde; 112th GMBde; 288th ArtyBde; 49th

AAMBde

22nd Army(estimated structure)TDiv – 2; Arty Bde – 1;

RocketArtyReg - 1; Anti-aircraft Bde - 1



Preparation to the “Caucasus-2016” Strategic Command-and-Staff Exercise

Sevastopol

Astrakan

Vladikavkaz

Tshinvali

Stavropol

Novorosiysk

Gyumry

Gauda

SMD

4 AD Army

TFCRostov-On-Don

NNB

7 AB divBSF

58 Army

49 Army

CSF

102 MB

7 MB

4 MB

Russia

ТУРЕЧЧИНА

Ukraine

Date: September 5-10, 2016. Aim: the joint forces preparation to a combat in order to guarantee Russia’s military security in South-Western strategic direction. Participants: Southern Military District (SMD) units, airborne assault forces, long-distance and transportation aviation units. Area of operation: SMD training ranges, Black and Caspian Seas.

“Opuk” range

“Raevskiy” range “Tarskoe” range“Dalniy” range

“Adanak” range

“Sernovodskiy” range

“Prudbiy” range

22



“Caucasus-2016” Strategic Command-and-Staff Exercise

Sevastopol

Simferopol

Preparation to “Caucasus-2016” Strategic Command-and-Staff Exercise

Yevpatoriya

Deployment of Russian military units to “Opuk” range

“Stariy Krim” range

August 8, units from 15th sep coastal defence missile Bde (Sevastopol) came with 5 cruise missile launchers “Bastion”

Feodosia

CD

BSF

NBC

August 10, Task Group came on airfield Belbek to control the preparation to “Caucasus-2016”

Belbek

23

№ Unit Dislocation

1 810th separated marine Bde Sevastopol2 126th separated coastal defence Bde Perevalne3 127th separated reconnaissance Bde Sevastopol

4 133d sep logistic and maintenance Bde Bahchisaray

5 8th artillery Regt Simferopol

6 68th separated maritime engineer Regt Yevpatoriya

7 4th NBC Regt Sevastopol

From the Black Sea Fleet


1 175th command Bde Askay2 78th logistic and maintenance Bde Budyonovsk3 99th logistic and maintenance Bde Maykop

From the Southern Military District


1 1st separated engineer Bde Murom

From the Western Military District

“Opuk” range



ConclusionsDEFENCE INTELLIGENCE OF UKRAINE


During “Caucasus-2016” Strategic Command-and-Staff Exercise Russia is going to demonstrate to the West and NATO its capabilities to defend Russian national interests in the Black Sea and Caucasus

regions

Russian Federation does not abandon its strategic aim with regard to Ukraine and continues preparation to possible military

conflict with Western countries and NATO

Russia does not stop armed provocations in the temporary occupied territories of the Donetsk and Luhansk regions, along with strengthening its Joint Forces in temporarily occupied Crimea and increasing its military

capabilities along Ukraine’s border

Design

61000135 dod 1