185
  ؽس صا بػا بث گ بػاس یصسـبو ل شى شث ضجػ ةا ػبػ اشا ػسش ثGMM ب (  شث ل ی سی س ثا ػبج شو  بوش ب ػ ـگ یض شپ ی ب ى چب س  ث  . ؿب ث    گ بػ ا س   ل  ش پ  ثش   ثب    ی ا ش ث  ؿ  شب   ی ؿ ك ا  سز ث ضا  ،ػضابى   ل  ش پ ش ث   یشب   ث  ثش  ب ا اض  ضا  یسبث آ ی ب ب ػ   ،بػ ا  ا شل   ػ اض      و1370 ب 1387 ص ا غ پ  ػ ا  ؿ یس آ  خ ةب و   ثب  ش  ص ا  ب ص شی ػ ؽ س  ث  ا    ش ا بػب ؿ  و     ج  عگا ص ا بػ ا   ػ ، و یصسبـ و ػضابى   چ  ا س  ضج ػ ة ا یاشخ ا ش ث ، ؿ ك ا  ی ب س ز ث ،ػ ا  گ بػ ا، ا ؿا  لش پ  ثش شى   ب  س     ش ث یسازگش ا شـ ث  و شب ا  ؿ ق ـ . سز ث ،س  ی ط ى    آ ؿب  یشگسب و  ث س  ش   و ػ ا  آ ص ا وب  ؾ پظ ب   آ ، و ، ؿ ك ا س   و ب   و اش چ . ػ ا ش  اش ا س  ضج ػ ة ا یاشخ ا س  ، ػ   ب ؾ و  لش پ ش ث    ؿ ك ا سز ث ك س  ه  ؾاض ا ب ث ،ػ ا  ؿ ق ـ     ی ا2.69 ؾ ا ض ا  %  1  ا ش   ا ػ ا صا آ بـا  یساثبؼ   بل ا ـىا         بسبػ ا . ، یضوش [email protected] E.Mail:  2 . یلب ا   ؿس ا عبؿسب و[email protected] E.Mail:  3 . یلب ا   ؿس ا عبؿسب و[email protected] E.Mail: 

فصلنامه علوم اقتصادی 15

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  • 58................................... ( ........................................................ 55 5391)

    18

    18. . .1382

    .

    19. Baltagi ,H. Badi, 2005, Economic Analysis of Panel Data , 3 Ed ., England: John

    Wiley & Sons,Ltd.

    20. Benbelkacem,A. ,2009. A Stakeholder Discussion and Analysis of Plant Breeding

    and Related Biotechnology Capacity Assessment in Western Asia and North

    Africa. [Online] Available at: < km.fao.org/gipb/images/pdf_files/-

    WANA_RegionalAnalysis_DraftReport_fr.pdf > [Accessed 27 October 2011]

    21. Borlaug N.E., 2000. The Green Revolution Revisited and The Road Ahead. In:

    Special 30th Anniversary Lecture, Rome. Available at:

    22. Brazdik , F. 2006. Non-parametric analysis of technical efficiency, Factors

    affecting efficiency of west Javarice farms, Charles University,Center,Economics

    Institute [online] Available at:< http://ssrn.com/abstract=1148203 >.[Accessed 20

    August 2011]

    23. Estudillo, J.P. , Otsuka, K. , 2002, Lessons from Three Decades of Green Revolution

    in the Philippines , The Developing Economies, [online] Available

    at:

    [Accessed 12 June 2011].

    24. Nakano, Y. et al., 2011. The Possibility of a Rice Green Revolution in Large-scale

    Irrigation Schemes in Sub-Saharan Africa, The World Bank , Development

    Research Group. [online] Available at:<

    http://water.worldbank.org/publications/possibility-rice-green-revolution-large-scale-

    irrigation-schemes-sub-saharan-africa>

    25. Takayama, T.,1959, A Study on the Cobb-Douglas Production Function 'with

    an Application to the Rice Prduction in Hokkaido, Hokkaido University

    Collection of Scholarly and Academic Papers : HUSCA, Hokkaido

    University.[online] Available at:< eprints.lib.hokudai.ac.jp/dspace/bitstream/

    2115/.../15_p210-187.pdf > [Accessed 13 January 2012]

  • 59................................... ( ........................................................ 55 5391)

    19

    26. http://www.cisa.ir

    27. http://www.epa.gov

    28. http://www.irri.org

  • 21................................... ( ........................................................ 55 5391)

    02

    The Study of the Effects of the Green Revolution on Agricultural Crops Productivity in Gilan Province Using GMM

    (A Case Study on Rice Production) Dr.Abbasali Abounoori9

    Saedeh Faridkiyan10

    Hadi Parhizi gashti11

    Abstract:

    Present study, is an attempt to estimate the high yielding variety (HYV) of rice production in Gilan

    province. Accordingly, the information of the variables of the HYV of rice production,

    mechanization , improved seeds , irrigation , fertilizers and also pesticide consumption of this

    province during 1172 to 1187 has been collected . After estimating the model, using Time Series method and through the production function Cobb-Douglas, according to the research aim that is

    Identification of the effects of factors such as mechanization, fertilizers, pesticides and use of modified seeds, on the green revolution in Iran", The variables that had been the most influences on production and then the performance in high yielding rice have been identified. Research results

    suggest that changes in use of modern machinery and technology, improved seeds, fertilizers,

    pesticides and insecticides, are effective implementation on the Green Revolution in Gilan province.

    Because, as specified in the estimated model, with an increase of improved seeds, the high yielding

    variety (HYV) of rice production 0649 % would increase and also With an increase of irrigation, production of this type of rice 0609 % would increase too which about both listed variables, the assuming of being stable other condition, should be considered. with an increase of ratio

    mechanization level to the total acreage in harvesting stage and with no change in other variables and

    conditions, this type of rice production decreased 1611 % that this due to the use of other agricultural products specific machinery like wheat, in paddy rice in the stage of harvesting that causes yield

    reduction of this product. As is clear from the results of the study the highest elasticity is related to

    improved seeds and the greatest negative impact is related to mechanization in harvesting stage.

    Keywords: Green Revolution, Performance, Efficiency, Improved seeds, mechanization, Cobb-

    Douglas production function, GMM

    JEL Classifications: 15Q 16Q

    9.Assistant Professor of Economics, Islamic Azad university,Central Tehran branch, E.Mail:[email protected] 12

    .MA in Economics,E.Mail: [email protected] 11

    .MA in Economics, E.Mail: [email protected]

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    9. BP statistical review of world energy June 2010

    10. Gelb Bernard 2002 Caspian Oil and Gas: Production & Prospects1

    11. Caspian Sea Region 2002 Energy Information Administration.

    12. Wood John (2004) Long-Term World Oil Supply Scenarios Energy Information

    Administration.. 13. Non-OPEC Fact Sheet 2005 Energy Information Administration.

    14. Johnson Toni (2008) Non-OPEC Oil Production www.cfr.org. 7-

    15. World Oil Chronology 1990-2007. Energy Information Administration (EIA).

    16. OPEC Analysis Briefs March 7 2007. Energy Information Administration(EIA).

    17. International Energy Outlook 2010. Energy Information Administration (EIA).

    18. Monthly Oil Survey June 2008. Energy Information Administration (EIA).

    19. Short Term Energy Outlook Supplement Outlook for Non OPEC Supply 2010 Energy

    Information Administration (EIA).

  • Studying the Effect of Non-OPEC Member States Supply on the Price of Petroleum

    Dr.Mohammad-Ali Khatib Semnani1

    Dr.Ali Asghar Esmailnia2

    Marjan Dehabadi3

    Abstract:

    This study deals with the changing trend of producing petroleum by non-member states and its

    effect on the global price of the petroleum. Using vector error correction model, the hypothesis

    of this research, i.e., " the petroleum supplied by OPEC non-member states is one of the factors

    affecting the price of petroleum in the global markets", have been studied. The period of study

    starts from 1991 to the end of 2006 and the variables are used on a seasonal basis. The results of the static experiment, Johansson convergence test and the vector error correction model suggest

    that there has been a convergent relationship between the petroleum supply variable in the non-

    OPEC member states and the price of petroleum both in the long run and short term and there is

    a negative relationship between the variable of petroleum supply by nonmember states on the

    variable of price and this proves the hypothesis.

    Keywords: Non- OPEC countries, Oil Supplies from Non-OPEC Countries, Oil prices.

    JEL classification: C32 - N70 - Q41.

    1.Assistant Professor of Economics, Islamic Azad university,Central Tehran branch, E.Mail:

    2.Assistant Professor of Economics, Islamic Azad university,Central Tehran branch, E.Mail:

    A_esmailnia @yahoo.com 3.MA in Energy Economics, Lecturer to Payam Nour University,E.Mail:[email protected]

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  • 19. Altinay, G. and Karagol, E. ,2004, "Structural break, unit root, and the causality between energy

    consumption and GDP in Turkey", Energy Economics, No.26, PP.985-994.

    20. Altinay, G. and Karagol, E. ,2005, "Electricity consumption and economic growth: Evidence from

    Turkey", Energy Economics, No.27, PP.849-856.

    21. Akinlo A.E. ,2008, "Energy consumption and economic growth: Evidence from 11 Sub-Sahara

    African countries", Energy Economics 30, 23912400

    22. Apergis, Nicholas, James E.Payne ,2010, "Renewable energy consumption and economic growth:

    Evidence from a panel of OECD countries", Energy Policy 38 , 656660 23. Apergis, N., Payne, J.E., 2009, "Energy consumption and economic growth: Evidence from the

    Commonwealth of Independent States", Energy Economics, No.31, pp.641647

    24. Asteriou, Dimitrios, 2006, "Applied Econometrics:a modern approach using Eviews and Microfit",

    Palgrave Macmillan . 25. Balat Mustafa., 2008, Energy consumption and economic growth in Turkey During the past Two

    decades ", Energy Policy, 118127

    26. Baltagi, B. (2005), Econometric Analysis of Panel Data, 3th edition, John Wiley

    27. Berndt, E. R. And Wood, D.O., 1975, "Technology, Prices and the derived demand for energy",

    Review of Economics and Statistics, No. 57, pp 259-268 28. Costantini Valeria, Hiara Martini., 2010, The causality between energy consumption and

    economic growth: A multi -sectoral analysis using non-stationary co integrated panel data",

    29. Chiang Lee- Chien, hun-Ping Chang., 2008, "Energy consumption and economic growth in Asian

    Economies: A more comprehensive analysis using panel data", 2008, Resource and Energy

    Economics 30, 5065

    30. Chiou-Wei, S.Z., et al., 2008, " Economic growth and energy consumption revisited: Evidence from

    linear and nonlinear Granger causality", Energy Economics, No.30, pp.30633076

    31. Erdal, Gulistan. et al., 2008, "The Causality Between Energy Consumption and Economic Growth

    in Turkey". Energy Policy, No. 36, PP. 3838-3842

    32. Harris R. and Sollis R., 2003, "Applied time series modeling and forecasting", Wiley.

    33. Jang C. Jin., 2009, "Economic research and economic growth: Evidence from East Asian

    economies", Journal of Asian Economics 20. 150-155

    34. Lee, C.C., 2005, "Energy Consumption and GDP in Developing Countries: A Co integrated Panel

    Analysis", Energy Economics, No.27, and PP.415-427.

  • 35. Lee, Ch. And Chang Ch., 2005, "Structural Breaks, Energy Consumption and Economic Growth

    Revisited: Evidence from Taiwan", Energy Economics, No. 27, PP.857-872

    36. Mehara, Mohsen., 2006, "The Relatioship Between Energy Consumption and Economic growth in

    Iran". Iranian Economic Review, Vol.10, No.17, PP. 137-148

    37. Mehrara, m., 2007, "Energy consumption and economic growth: the cost of oil exporting

    countries", Energy policy, No. 35, pp. 2939-2945.

    84. Narayan, P.K., Smyth, R., 2223, "Electricity consumption, employment and real income in

    Australia: evidence from multivariate Granger causality tests". Energy Policy, 88, pp.0025-0002.

    85. Narayan Paresh Kumar, Narayan Seema, Popp Stephan., 2202, "Does electricity consumption

    panel Granger cause GDP? A new global evidence", Applied Energy, Qrticle in press

    02. Oh, W. & K.Lee., 2220, "Causal Relationship Between Energy Consumption and GDP Revisited:

    The Case of Korea 0532-0555", Energy Economics, No. 22, PP.10-15.

    00. oytasa Ugur, Ramazan Sarib., 2003, " Energy consumption and GDP: Causality Relation ship in G-7 countries and emerging", Energy Economics22, 33-37

    02. Stern, D. I. and Cleveland C.J., 2220. "Energy and Economic Growth", Rensselaer Working Papers,

    No.2002.

    08. Tsani, Stela Z., 2202, "Energy consumption and economic growth: A causality analysis for

    Greece", Energy Economics 82 142152 00. Yoo, S.H., Ku, S.J.,2225, "Causal relationship between nuclear energy consumption and economic

    growth: A multi-country analysis", Energy Policy, No.83, PP.0521-0508.

    01. Zamani, M., 2223, "Energy consumption and economic activity in Iran", Energy Economics, 25(2),

    pp.0081-0002.

  • of Gas consumption on GDP of Iranian provinces Investigating the impact

    Armin Rajabzadeh1

    Karim Moharramzadeh2

    Ali Morad Paydar3

    Abstract

    The enforcement of the Iranian subsidy reform plan and removal of subsidies on energy carriers

    and especially on gas prices and the need to provide more accurate and effective policy guidance

    to advance this plan, necessitate the empirical studies on the effects of different oil product's

    consumption on GDP. The main objective of this study is to investigate the impact of gas

    consumption on GDP in Iranian provinces. The main question of this study is whether the

    reduction of gas oil consumption caused by subsidy reform plan decelerates the GDP or not? In

    order to answer this question, we use the Panel Data model and quarterly data during 0848-0842 at

    provincial level. The results indicate that, gasoline and gasoil consumption have positive and

    significant effect on GDP of Iranian provinces, such that, the elasticity of provinces products with

    respect to gasoline and gas consumption respectively was 2222. The results also show that

    development expenditures of government and population variables have positive and significant

    effect on GDP. The population (as a proxy of employment) elasticity of production was larger

    than the elasticity of production with respect to development expenditures of government.

    According to the results, we can argue that the limitation of oil products consumption can

    decelerate the value added. Thus, we recommend that the government should give the solutions

    of economizing the gas consumption in order to prevent the negative externalities of the subsidy

    reform plan. JEL Classification: O08, C02, C12, C22

    Key words: value added; Oil products consumption; Panel Data; Iranian provinces.

    1.Department of Marketing Management, Payame Noor University,E.Mail:

    2.Department of Economic, Islamic Azad University,.

    3.Department of Marketing Management, Payame Noor University,.

  • 5791 8002

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  • A comparative study of the effect of financial development on economic growth in

    developed and developing countries using panel data (5791-8002) Dr.Ghodratolah Emamverdi

    56

    Mehdi Farahani59

    Fateme Shaghaghi52

    Abstract:

    In this study, The effect of financial development on economic growth in both developed and

    developing countries will And will be discussed Whether the financial development indicators have a positive effect on economic growth

    And it works in both developed and developing countries are different or not?

    Statistical studies have been conducted on three groups in 120 countries Statistical studies have been conducted on three groups in 120 countries. Calculations for total has offered initially and then 120 countries have been divided into two categories. 53 high-income countries (including America, Germany, France, etc.) and the average high and average low of 67 low-income countries (including Pakistan, India, Iran, etc) for the years 2008-1975 as is taken. Indicators of stock market development as well as indicators of financial development, we took

    advantage. Contracts to Panel and GMM techniques are used. Model results suggest that Positive relationship between financial sector development and economic growth Two groups of

    high-income countries and low-income and low-middle and middle to high, there is And the effect of high and middle-income countries is stronger.

    Key words: Financial Markets, Finance Development ,Economic development ,Developing

    countries ,the generalized method of moments

    JEL Classification : E17, E42, E47, E52, E58

    16

    .Assistant Professor of Economics, Islamic Azad university,Central Tehran branch,

    E.Mail:[email protected] 17

    .P.h.D student at the University of Shiraz & techer of Economics in Islamic Azad university,Karaj branc, E.Mail: [email protected] 18

    .MA in Economics,E.Mail: [email protected]

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  • 18. ( 14 1391)

    21. ( 1376) -

    ( 1374-1338) 22 23.

    22. ( 1384 )

    24.

    23. ( 1388 )

    40.

    24. (. 1377 . .)

    . : :

    25. ( 1376 )

    .

    26. (1376 . . .)

    .

    27. C. Brooks introductory econometrics for finance Cambridge university press 2002 170 -

    190.

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    Unwin 1976.

    29. G.Haberler Comparative advantage Agricultural production and International Trade

    The International journal of Agrarian Affairs may 1964.

    30. Greenaway D. and R. Kneller (2004) Exporting Productivity and Agglomeration: A

    Difference in Difference Analysis of Matched Firms University of Nottingham GEP

    Research Paper 03/45.

    31. Hatemi.j Abdolnasser (2001) Productivity performance and export performance: A

    time-series perespective Eastern Economic journal 27 2 149-164.

    32. Khan Mohsen (1974) Import and export demand in developing countries I.M.F. Staff

    papers vol 11 no 3.

    33. Mac BeanExport Instability and Economic Development (Cambridge mass : Harvard

    University press 1966.

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  • 19. ( 14 1391)

    35. Wagnerj. (2007) Export and productivity: A survey of the evidence from Firm level

    data The world Economy 30 1 60-89.

    36. www.cbi.ir

    37. www.tpo.ir

  • 21. ( 14 1391)

    Investigation of effective factors on non-oil exports with emphasis on non-price variables

    Dr.Farhad Dejpasand12

    Meysam Amiry13

    Benyamin Saveh14

    Abstract:

    One of the ways for encouraging economic development in oil exporting countries like Iran

    (which is known as an oil-dependent economy) is moving toward diversification of export

    revenues rapidly by increasing non-oil exports. This goal is not accessible without a

    comprehensive survey and examination of factors that affects non-oil exports condition.

    Although, in many developed countries, export and import analysis is performed in framework

    of relevant price variables (Also in our country most of the surveys have not gone beyond this

    framework).But it seems that institutional, scientific, technological and management factors have

    much greater effect on export variables in Iran in comparison to other countries. Hence, in this

    article we have tried to go beyond previous studies by adding real and non-price factors to

    quantitative model of non-oil export in order to estimate their impacts.In order to do this, we

    have considered non-oil exports to be a function of real exchange rate, total factor productivity,

    gross national product and the degree of openness of the economy. In addition, we have used

    ARDL for estimating the model and investigating the effects of each of these factors on non-oil

    export during 1975-2007. Finding of this paper shows that non-oil export is significantly and effectively, dependant on

    non-price variables. The results of our estimation show that productivity, degree of economic

    openness and GDP have positive effects on non-oil export. Albeit according to basic problems in

    production and export and according to our estimations, we claim that exchange rate does not

    have a significant impact on non-oil export.

    Keywords: Non-Oil Exports, Real Exchange Rate, Total factor productivity, Economic

    openness, ARDL

    JEL Classification: C50D24F43E3

    12

    . Assistant Professor, School of Economics and Political Science, Shahid Beheshti University, E.Mail:

    [email protected] 13 .PhD student at Tehran University, School of Economics, E.Mail: [email protected] 14 .Master planned economic system Shahid Beheshti University,E.Mail:[email protected]

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