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查理.芒格的智慧 (一)芒格论投资管理专长 1 (二)帐篷中的投资福音 27 (三)Wasco Financial 公司年度股东会议纪要 38 (四)《查理.芒格传》的读书笔记 43 (六):世事洞明说“误判” 48 (七):许多成就来自于你知道自己应该避免一些什么 60 (八):规模效应、特许经营权、行业竞争格局 61 (九):为啥投资比亚迪 63 (十):Wasco 2008 年股东会议演讲与问答 64 (十一)《怎样得到痛苦》 71 (十二)从达尔文到芒格(附录三:概率) 77 人类处世智慧的最基本分支: 芒格论投资管理专长 1994 4 14 南加州大学商学院 今天我想和你们开个小玩笑——把选股技术这一主题归纳在处世智慧的分支下,下面我们就来 讨论处世智慧——我对这个宽泛的话题很有兴趣,因为在现代教育系统中,涉及这方面的内容很少, 即使有,成效也不是很突出。 这次报告我讲遵循行为主义心理学中的“祖母定律(Grandmas Law)”——祖母对孙子说: 吃完胡萝卜,就给你吃甜点——这就是祖母的智慧。 本次演讲中胡萝卜的部分是一门关于处世智慧的基础学科,这事此次报告的好开端。毕竟,现 代教育的理论就是在你学有专长之前必须接受基础教育。我觉得,这个道理就相当于:在你成为一 个伟大的选股人之前,必须学习基础知识。 好了,为了推荐我时常强调的“补救式处世智慧”,我打算从以下几个基本概念开始。什么是 基本的处世智慧?第一个规则是:只靠记忆中分散的事实的积累,并试着反馈出来是远远不够的, 若不把这些事实利用网格状的理论组织起来,就起不到实在的作用。你必须在脑中形成各种各样的 模型,把你的生活经历——不管是直接的还是间接的——在这种网格状的模型中排列起来。可能你 曾注意到,一些学生只试图反馈出脑中记忆过的内容,所以常成为学校或生活中不幸的失败者。记 住:必须用头脑中的网格状模型(Latticework of Models)把自己的经验组织起来。 什么是模型?首先,你必须尽量掌握各种模型——如果手边仅有目前正在使用的一两个模型, 根据人的心理特征,你将试图拉伸事实来符合你的模型,或者一厢情愿地认为事实跟你的模型非常 贴近,这种思维就像脊椎按摩师一样愚蠢。 古谚云:“在手握锤子的眼里,每个问题都像一个钉子。”脊椎按摩师就是这样行医的。这种思 维方式和做法具有毁灭性,因此,你们的头脑中必须形成多种模式。 模型产生于各种学科——因为生活的智慧并不局限于某一学术领域,这也是从世俗角度看那些 诗歌教授行事略显笨拙的缘故,他们头脑中缺乏大量的模型,所以掌握多重学科和领域的模型至关 重要。你兴许会感慨说:“天!这也太难了。”令人欣慰的是,它并没有想象中那么复杂——因为 90%80%的重要模型就能让你的处世本领增长 90%,而这 80%-90%的模型中,重量级别的更是屈指 可数。在成为小学科——比如选股高手之前,我们来探讨一下基础知识中有什么样的模型和技巧值 得我们借鉴。 首先是数学,大家必须能够处理数字和数量问题——即基本算术。除复利(Compound Interest

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