Click here to load reader

Москва 2008

  • View
    57

  • Download
    0

Embed Size (px)

DESCRIPTION

Центр проблемного анализа и государственно-управленческого проектирования. Финансовая система России. Странности. С.С. Сулакшин доктор физико-математических наук, доктор политических наук. Internet: www.rusrand.ru E-mail: [email protected] Москва 2008. - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

Text of Москва 2008

  • 2008 - .. - , .Internet: www.rusrand.ruE-mail: [email protected]

  • -

  • ? -

  • ? , !!! -

  • ? , !!! -

  • -

  • !!! ! - 2 - 3 - ()() ? ! - - !012345-1,0-0,8-0,6-0,4-0,20,00,20,40,60,81,0R , , 012345-1,0-0,8-0,6-0,4-0,20,00,20,40,60,81,0R , ,

  • !!! , . - + . - -. 2/ ,, - . . .: . , , :

  • !!! , ! - = 0,7 = 0,1296100104108112199019921994199619982000200220042006-20002004006008001000120014001600 1+2+3, 1+2+3, 080160240

  • , -

  • - . , :1. ( - , )2. . -

  • - , 1. , - 01234567-1,0-0,8-0,6-0,4-0,20,00,20,40,60,81,0R , .0123456-1,0-0,8-0,6-0,4-0,20,00,20,40,60,81,0R ( ), .

  • - - , 2. 0123456

  • - - , 3. 0246-1,0-0,8-0,6-0,4-0,20,00,20,40,60,81,0R 0246-1,0-0,8-0,6-0,4-0,20,00,20,40,60,81,0R

  • - - , 4. ! -6-4-20246-1,0-0,8-0,6-0,4-0,20,00,20,40,60,81,0 R (. ) (. .) %

  • - , 5. ()0246-1,0-0,8-0,6-0,4-0,20,00,20,40,60,81,0R (+)/0123456-1,0-0,8-0,6-0,4-0,20,00,20,40,60,81,0R (+)/

  • % 0+1+2 -

  • 2 ( %) - International Financial Statistics Nov. 2006

    1

    201

    162

    136

    132

    124

    122

    116

    115

    110

    107

    105

    97

    86

    85

    78

    71

    71

    68

    67

    65

    57

    53

    51

    48

    45

    43

    41

    33

    33

    32

    31

    29

    2 , 2005 ., %

    1

    201

    162

    136

    132

    124

    122

    116

    115

    110

    107

    105

    97

    86

    85

    78

    71

    71

    68

    67

    65

    57

    53

    51

    48

    45

    43

    41

    33

    33

    32

    31

    29

    1

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    . 2 , %

    2

    3

  • : , ,

    -

    9

    0.15801500790.09721149990.09854321710.0573410431

    0.18030828260.11266112480.10379631810.065274459

    0.19730842840.12403982680.11394496330.0705523366

    0.24335914370.15416038170.14501838010.086885887

    0.26004856930.16644131990.1418628340.0914726455

    0.27991508550.18474899690.1349244130.0930272252

    2

    0

    : ( % )

    _1.01._1.01._1.01._1.01._1.01._1.01.

    200120022003200420052006

    259,064297,130340,173447,495605,733749,931

    %51.8%14.7%14.5%31.5%35.4%23.8%

    % 2.6%2.9%3.2%4.1%5.2%6.0%

    18,27522,13524,59930,86043,15256,088

    %7.8%21.1%11.1%25.5%39.8%30.0%

    % 0.2%0.2%0.2%0.3%0.4%0.5%

    1,198,4831,324,8121,453,8371,640,9661,931,6422,224,811

    %10.6%10.5%9.7%12.9%17.7%15.2%

    % 12.2%13.1%13.9%15.0%16.6%17.9%

    462,643474,097493,335575,330665,867775,410

    %4.6%2.5%4.1%16.6%15.7%16.5%

    % 4.7%4.7%4.7%5.2%5.7%6.2%

    602,207509,797459,379506,784603,994796,284

    %12.2%-15.3%-9.9%10.3%19.2%31.8%

    % 6.1%5.0%4.4%4.6%5.2%6.4%

    1,077,9371,118,3411,223,2721,511,1411,724,9531,766,160

    %-8.8%3.7%9.4%23.5%14.1%2.4%

    % 11.0%11.0%11.7%13.8%14.8%14.2%

    1,905,7951,892,5952,025,7982,446,4322,754,7272,797,343

    %-11.2%-0.7%7.0%20.8%12.6%1.5%

    % 19.4%18.7%19.3%22.3%23.6%22.5%

    9,817,00010,128,00010,469,60010,971,20011,667,50012,450,000

    %5.9%3.2%3.4%4.8%6.3%6.7%

    200120022003200420052006

    25,52930,84138,76164,89585,931101,184

    %69.5%20.8%25.7%67.4%32.4%17.8%

    % 9.9%10.4%11.4%14.5%14.2%13.5%

    398,330408,926487,644541,180691,055768,071

    %5.9%2.7%19.2%11.0%27.7%11.1%

    % 33.2%30.9%33.5%33.0%35.8%34.5%

    2 40,93653,57567,119108,902157,520209,917

    %61.5%30.9%25.3%62.3%44.6%33.3%

    % 15.8%18.0%19.7%24.3%26.0%28.0%

    2 1,658,3321,930,5182,300,9332,716,4853,033,1773,669,663

    %12.1%16.4%19.2%18.1%11.7%21.0%

    % 138.4%145.7%158.3%165.5%157.0%164.9%

    0 14,85519,39524,00038,88155,40869,764

    %57.4%30.6%23.7%62.0%42.5%25.9%

    % 5.7%6.5%7.1%8.7%9.1%9.3%

    0 205,194212,268236,501268,955259,631297,909

    %5.7%3.4%11.4%13.7%-3.5%14.7%

    % 17.1%16.0%16.3%16.4%13.4%13.4%

    25,18433,47542,19568,986100,819138,549

    %67.9%32.9%26.0%63.5%46.1%37.4%

    % 9.7%11.3%12.4%15.4%16.6%18.5%

    1,453,1381,728,2502,044,3772,447,5302,773,5463,371,753

    %14.6%18.9%18.3%19.7%13.3%21.6%

    % 121.2%130.5%140.6%149.2%143.6%151.6%

  • -

    .2.1.

    2.1

    01.0101.0101.0101.0101.0101.01

    200120022003200420052006

    1. (1=2+3). .2,832.23,608.04,457.25,416.57,560.311,086.43.9

    . 799.3775.8849.2959.32,143.83,526.1

    . - %38.8%27.4%23.5%21.5%39.6%46.6%

    2. . .1,434.71,631.31,923.11,669.81,710.62,229.41.6

    . 197.0196.6291.8-253.340.8518.8

    . - %15.9%13.7%17.9%-13.2%2.4%30.3%

    2.1. . .422.9523.9726.4748.2935.11,437.93.4

    . 130.9101.0202.521.8186.9502.8

    . - %44.8%23.9%38.7%3.0%25.0%53.8%

    2.1.1. . .391.5464.7645.6643.6781.21,039.72.7

    . 124.573.2180.9-2.0137.6258.5

    . - %46.6%18.7%38.9%-0.3%21.4%33.1%

    2.1.2. . .31.459.280.8104.6153.9398.212.7

    . 6.427.821.623.849.3244.3

    . - %25.6%88.5%36.5%29.5%47.1%158.7%

    2.2. . .1,011.81,107.41,196.7921.6775.5791.50.8

    . 66.195.689.3-275.1-146.116

    . - %7.0%9.4%8.1%-23.0%-15.9%2.1%

    3. (3=4+5). .1,397.51,976.72,534.13,746.75,849.78,857.06.3

    . 602.3579.2557.41,212.62,103.03007.3

    . - %74.1%41.4%28.2%47.9%56.1%51.4%

    : . .28.230.131.829.527.728.81.0

    %4.4%6.7%5.6%-7.2%-6.1%4.0%

    : ,

    1.01.2006 1.01.2001

    -

    BW 1 .2.1.

    2832.21434.7422.9391.531.41011.81397.5

    36081631.3523.9464.759.21107.41976.7

    4457.21923.1726.4645.680.81196.72534.1

    5416.51669.8748.2643.6104.6921.63746.7

    7560.31710.6935.1781.2153.9775.55849.7

    11086.42229.41437.91039.7398.2791.58857

    1. (1=2+3)

    2.

    2.1.

    2.1.1.

    2.1.2.

    2.2.

    3. (3=4+5)

    . .

    BW 2 .2.1.

    2832.21434.7422.9391.531.41011.81397.5

    36081631.3523.9464.759.21107.41976.7

    4457.21923.1726.4645.680.81196.72534.1

    5416.51669.8748.2643.6104.6921.63746.7

    7560.31710.6935.1781.2153.9775.55849.7

    11086.42229.41437.91039.7398.2791.58857

    1. (1=2+3)

    2.

    2.1.

    2.1.1.

    2.1.2.

    2.2.

    3. (3=4+5)

    ..

    .2.2.

    2.2.

    01.0101.0101.0101.0101.0101.01

    200120022003200420052006

    . .1,397.51,976.72,534.13,746.75,849.78,857.06.3

    . 602.3579.2557.41,212.62,103.03,007.3

    . - %74.1%41.4%28.2%47.9%56.1%51.4%

    . .253.2374.1399.7534.11,486.42,811.411.1

    . 155.1120.925.6134.4952.31,325.0

    . - %158.1%47.7%6.8%33.6%178.3%89.1%

    . .81.6121.7271.3326.61,092.12,008.424.6

    . 31.440.1149.655.3765.5916.3

    . - %62.5%49.1%122.9%20.4%234.4%83.9%

    . .171.6252.4128.4207.5394.3803.04.7

    . 123.780.8-124.079.1186.8408.7

    . - %258.2%47.1%-49.1%61.6%90.0%103.7%

    2. .1,144.31,602.62,134.43,212.64,363.36,045.65.3

    . 447.2458.3531.81,078.21,150.71,682.3

    . - %62.4%40.1%33.2%50.5%35.8%38.6%

    : ,

    1.12.2005

    1.12.2005

    1.12.2005

    1.01.2006 1.01.2001

    BW 1 .2.2.

    1397.5253.281.6171.61144.3

    1976.7374.1121.7252.41602.6

    2534.1399.7271.3128.42134.4

    3746.7534.1326.6207.53212.6

    5849.71486.41092.1394.34363.3

    88572811.42008.48036045.6

    3. (3=4+5)

    4.

    4.1.

    4.2.

    5. 2

    . .

    BW 2 .2.2.

    1397.51144.3253.281.6171.6

    1976.71602.6374.1121.7252.4

    2534.12134.4399.7271.3128.4

    3746.73212.6534.1326.6207.5

    5849.74363.31486.41092.1394.3

    88576045.62811.42008.4803

    2

    . .

  • 2 -

    .2.3.

    2.3.

    2

    01.0101.0101.0101.0101.0101.01

    200120022003200420052006

    5. 2. .1,144.31,602.62,134.43,212.64,363.36,045.65.3

    . 447.2458.3531.81,078.21,150.71,682.3

    . - %62.4%40.1%33.2%50.5%35.8%38.6%

    5.1. 0. .419.3584.3763.21,147.01,534.82,009.24.8

    . 152.7165.0178.9383.8387.8474.4

    . - %57.3%39.4%30.6%50.3%33.8%30.9%

    5.2. . .725.01,018.31,371.22,065.62,828.54,036.45.6

    . 294.5293.3352.9694.4762.91207.9

    . - %65.5%40.5%34.7%50.6%36.9%42.7%

    5.2.1. . .444.6586.7706.71,003.21,277.51,805.74.1

    . 193.7142.1120.0296.5274.3528.2

    . - %77.2%32.0%20.5%42.0%27.3%41.3%

    5.2.2. . .265.6420.9635.11,032.01,515.22,184.48.2

    . 93.6155.3214.2396.9483.2669.2

    . - %54.4%58.5%50.9%62.5%46.8%44.2%

    5.2.3. . .14.810.729.430.435.846.33.1