П.Бернстайн - Против богов. Укрощение риска

  • View
    1.104

  • Download
    2

Embed Size (px)

Text of П.Бернстайн - Против богов. Укрощение риска

159.947.2 88.3 51 . .

51

. : / . . .: -, 2000. 400 .: . ISBN 5-901028-17-1 (.)

, , , , . , . , , . , , . , . , , . , , , . , . . , , , .

159.947.2 88.3

This translation of AGAINST THE GODS is published by arrangement with John Wiley & Sons, Inc. with the assistance of the British Council/ Publishers Association Russian Translation Scheme All rights reserved. Published by John Wiley & Sons, Inc. . , John Wiley & Sons, Inc.

ISBN 5-901028-17-1 (.) ISBN 0-471-12104-5 (.)

Peter L. Bernstein, 1996 -, . ., , 2000

. : ................................................. ........................................................................................... .................................................. ....................................................................................... ............................................................................................. I. 1200. .......................................................................

7 9 11 15 19 27

1. .............................................. 2. I, II, III............................................................... . 1200-1700. ........................ 3. ................................................................ 4. .................................................... 5. ...... III. 1700-1900. ......................................... 6. ................................... 7. ............................. 8. ...................................................... 9. ........................................ 10. ................................................................. 11. ................................................................ IV. 19001960. ............................... 12. ....................................................... 13. ........................................................ 14. , , ................. 15. ...

29 41 55 57 75 91 115 117 134 154 171 191 206

213 215 233 249 266

V. : ..........................................................................................................287 16. ....................................... 17. ................................................... 18. ............................ 19. ............................................................. 289 304 324 349

.................................................................................... 359........................................................................................ 361 .................................................................................... 373 - ............................................... 384 , ............................. 392 ........................................................................... 394

. :

: , , , - . , , .., - . , , . , : , - , . . . , CRUDEX OY , , , , . : , , . , , , , , , . , , , , , . , : . , , , , , , . , , , . , , . , .

John Wiley & Sons, Inc.

. 1973 . Peter L. Bernstein, Inc., . Economics and Portfolio Strategy, , . 1974. The Journal of Portfolio Management, . -, , . 1951 ., -, , , . - - . , , . , , . 1996. John Wiley & Sons : . 1996 1998., , . - (The Free Press, 1992). 1997. Princeton University Press STREETWISE: The Best of the Journal of Portfolio Management, 1998. Wiley Investment Management. , . 1997. , 1998. .

: . , , , , , , , . . , . , . , , : , . .

. , . , , 25%. , , . , , . , , 1930- . , , . . . , , , . , , . , . , , , , , , , , ,

. , , , . , . , , , , , . , , . , , , General Electric Royal Dutch, . , , 13, : , . , . -, , , , . -, , . , - , . , , , , , . . , . , . , , , . . , , , , . , . : . XVII : ... , , .... . , .

. , 2000 .

, . , . , , , , , - . . , , . , . . , - , . , . , , . . . . , , . , , , , . , , , , , , . John Wiley & Sons . . . , , , . , , . - . . - , ; . , . . , .

: , , . , , -, , . , . : , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , -, , , -, , , , , , ( , 16 17, ) . . . , . , , , , , -, . , . . , , . .

, ? , , . , , , . , , . , . , , , . , , ,

, . , , . , . , , , . , , . , . , , , , , . , , . , , , . . , , , . , . , , , , . . , . . , , , , , , , , . , , . , , ( ), , , Microsoft, Merck, DuPont, Alcoa, Boeing, McDonald's.

, , ., -5, , : , , . . , . ( , The New York Times, January 3, 1996.)

- , . , , , . , , , . 1654 , , , , , . , , . , , , . , . . , XVII (Trivial Pursuit) , . , . , , , , , . , , , , , , . , . 1654 , , , , , . , 1630 , , . . . , , , . -

, . , , . , , , , . 1725 , . XVIII . 1703 , , , 1. , , , , 2). , , : , , , . 1730 , , . . , , . , , . , , , . . , , . , , , . 7 . , , , , , .

1654- 1760 , , . .

1875 , -, , , , , . , , , . 1952 (Markowitz), , , , , , , . , -, . . , , , , , , , . . , . , , , . , , ? , , , ? ? , ? , . , , . (Black), , () -, : , 2. , , . . (Arrow) : . 3. , , , , . , , . ; . , , , , , , .

, , . , , , , , , . , . , . . , , . , , , ; . . , , , , , - , . , . risicare, ''. , . , , , . , .

1

? , , ? . . , , , . , . , . . , , . , , , . , , 1. , , , , , , . .

(Keynes): , 2. , . , ... 3. . , . . , . , . . , , , . 4. . (Luck Be a Lady Tonight) (Guys and Dolls) . , 5. , , , , . . , 3500 , , . , , (, ) . , . hazard al zahr, ( . . . .). , . . , . (, ) , , , - , . : , . XIX . , , 150 . () , , , ... , !7. ,