. - , 1985 . . , , 1984. , , , . , , , - - , . - , 50 . "Review of Economics and Statistics" "Journal of Economic Perspectives". . 1991 . . , , , . .

Macroeconomics

N.Gregory Mankiw

Harvard University

Worth Publishers

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Okun A.M. Potential GNP: Its Measurement and Significance // Proceedings of the Business and Economics Statistics Section, American Statistical Association (Washington, D.C.: American Statistical Association, 1962), 98-103, reprinted in Okun A.M. Economics for Policymaking (Cambridge, Mass.: MIT Press, 1983), 145-158.

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3.

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Benjamin D., Kochin L. Searching for an Explanation of Unemployment in Interwar Britain // Journal of Political Economy 87 (June 1979), pp. 441-478. .: Journal of Political Economy 90 (April 1982), pp. 369-436. Katz F.L., Meyer B.D. Unemployment Insurance, Recall Expectations and

5.

209

.5-3. . , , , , . - , Katz F L , Meyer D Unemployment Insurance, Recall Expectations and Unemployment Outcomes // Quarterly Journal of Economics 105 (November 1990), pp 9731002

, 1985 . 500 .

Unemployment Outcomes // Quarterly Journal of Economics 105 (November 1990), pp. 973-1002.14

210

2.

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Woodbury S.A., Spiegelman R.G. Bonuses to Workers and Employers to Reduce Unemployment: Randomized Trials in Illinois // American Economic Review 77 (September 1987), pp. 513-530.

5.

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Brown . Minimum Wage Laws: Are They Overrated? // Journal of Economic Perspectives 2 (Summer 1988), pp. 133-146.

214

2.

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- . . , . , . , , . , . 1985 . , 10 , , 6 1,2 .Summers L.H. Why Is the Unemployment Rate So Very High Near Full Employment? // Brookings Papers on Economic Activity no.2 (1986), pp. 339-383

5.

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, 7. 5-4

60- . . . 70- . . 1985 ., 7,2%, 10,5%. . 60- . 30% , , . 1985 . , , 40%, 20%. , . 30% . , , . . . , . -, , , , , , . -, ,

Bruno M., Sachs J. Economics of Worldwide Stagflation (Cambridge, Mass.: Harvard University Press, 1985).

5. 8

217

.

, , . , . , , . , , , , , , - . . - - , . , . . , , , , . , , , .

Grubel H.G. Drifting Apart: Canadian and U.S. Labor Markets // Contemporary Policy Issues 6 (January 1988), pp. 39-55, .: Journal of Economic and Monetary Affairs 2 (Winter 1988), pp. 59-75.

8

218

2.

- , , . , . , , . , . , , , . . , , . , . , , , . , , . . , . , , . , , , .. *" . 9.

.: Yellen J.

5.

219

5-5

* " * 1914 . " " 5 . . 2 3 . , . , . ? . : " , . . ... 8- ". , , . , . , ," , , , , 1914

" , 75%, . , , , : " , . , , , , , " 1 0 .

Efficiency Wage Models of Unemployment // American Economic Review Papers and Proceedings (May, 1984), pp. 200-205; Katz L. Efficiency Wages: A Partial Evaluation // NBER Macroeconomics Annual (1986), pp. 235-276. Bulow J., Summers L. A Theory of Dual Labor Markets With Application to Industrial Policy, Discrimination, and Keynesian Unemployment // Journal of Labor Economics 4 (July 1986), pp. 376-414; Raff D., Summers L. Did Henry Ford Pay Efficiency Wages? // Journal of Labor Economics 5 (October 1987, Part 2), S57-S86.10

220

2.

5-4. , , , , . , . , ? , , . , , , , , , . - , , . , , - , . . , . . , , , . , 1974 ., 5,6%, 60% . 69% ,

5.

221

11 . , , . , 14 - . 12 , 2 - . , 36 . : 12 14 , 86% . , , - 24 36 , 67% , . , - , , . . , , . , , , . , , .

Clark ., Summers L. Labor Market Dynamics and Unemployment. A Reconsideration // Brookmgs Papers on Economic Activity no.l (1979), pp. 13-72

222

2.

. 5-1 , 1985 ., 7,2%. 5-1 1985. () 19.2% 14.79.7 4.9 3.8

() 17.2% 13.18.5 5.4 3.9

() 42.9% 40.0 23.5 11.68.1

() 44.3% 36.4 25.6 11.55.9

16-17 18-19 20-24 25-54 55

: .

, , . , . : - . , , , . . , ,

5.

223

, 4 , ; . , . , . " ". . 5-1 , , . . , ( ) , . . 40 . .5-5, 4,4% 50- ., 4,7% - 60- ., 6,1% - 70- . 7,3% 80-. , . . , 70- . , .

224

2.

. 1960 . 33% , 1980 . - 43%. , ( ), ..5-5. . - , 50- ., .

1950- 1960- 1970- 1980- : .

, 25 54 . 3,4% - 50- ., 3,0% - 60- ., 3,7% - 70- ., 6,1% - 80- . , . - . , . , , , ;

5.

225

. , , . , , ,. , 12 , , , . . , 13 . , . .5-6, 70- . 1972 . , , . , , . - . . , . , 1

Murphy K.M., Topel R.H. The Evolution of Unemployment in the United States: 1968-1985 // NBER Macroeconomics Annual (1987), pp. 11-68. Lilien D.M. Sectoral Shifts and Cyclical Unemployment // Journal of Political Economy 90 (August 1982), pp. 777-793.15- .

226

2.

, .

1945 1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 : . .5-6. : . , . , 70- . . , , , , .

, - . , . , - . . 1/3 - , . ,

5.

22'

, , , < - , ; : . ! . * , , , , , , . "", , . , , . "" , . 5-5. * , .

6.

24

. . , . , , . , : = ,

V

-

.

. , , . , , . , , - . - , , - . , . , , , . - , V , , .. . , , 60 50 . 60 , - 50 . , , : ' . .16*

244

2.

50 / 60 / = 30 . . , 30 . . , 10 . : V = / = (30 . )/(10 .) = 3 6 . , , , 10 ., 30 ., , . , , : . , , , . , , ^ , , . ' t , . . , Y. , , . , , . , , , , , .

6.

245

. Y , - , PY. 2, : Y - , - , a PY - . : = .

V

-

Y.

Y - , V . , . , . , . / 3. real money balances . , "" .

246

2.

, . : (M/P) d = kY, - . , . . , , . , , . , . . , (M/P) d (/). : / = kY. :

, / ; - , .. , ( , , , , ). , , , money balances money holdings. - . .

6.

247

(1/) = PY, : MV = PY, V = 1/. , , , , . , . , , , . , , - . . , , , , ; , .. V. , . , , , . , . , : MV = PY;v

248

2.

V , . () (PY). , . , , , . 1. Y . 3. 2. PV . . 3. PY Y. , , . , , . , , . , . , , . , ,

6.

24(

. , : (%) + V (%) = (%) + Y (%)

. ( ) . : , , ; . ; , . : - ; . , ( , ) . , , , , . , . , .

, , , : , ,

250

2.

, . , . (), (Y) (P*Y). : ( *) 6 7, = () % + (Y) 6 7,. , , 100, 2; 103, 2,1. , 3 %, 5 %. 200 216,3 , .. 8,15 %. , (8,15%) (5%) (3%)4.

, 1976 . , : " ". , , , . , , . . ,

: . , (PxY) % = () % + (Y) % + + ( () (Y)) 100%. - . . v

6.

251

. . 6-1 , . 6-1. , 1870 . (2) , - ( ) ,

( )

: 60- Friedman M , Schwartz A A Monetary History of The United States, 1867-1960 (Princeton, N J Princeton University Press, 1963), Friedman M , Schwartz A Monetary Trends in the United States and the United Kingdom Their Relation to Income, Prices, and Interest Rates, 1867-1975 (Chicago University of Chicago Press, 1982)

70- . XIX ., . . , , , - . , ,

Friedman M., Schwartz A.J. A Monetary History of I n e United States, 1867-1960 (Princeton, N.J.: Princeton University Press, 1963); Friedman M, Schwartz A.J. Monetary Trends in the United States and the United Kingdom: Their Relation to Income, Prices and Interest Rates, 1867-1975 (Chicago: University of Chicago Press, 1982). ,

5

252

2.

, . , 8.

6-3. "(. :

*

. -, ( , ). -, . -, . , , "6 " . "", -. . . , , . , . , . , . , - . ? - , . , , . , . seigniorage: .- .

6.

253

, . , . , , . : 3% 7. 10% . , , - , . , ,

264

2. . 6-3. , . , (1) - (2) - , (3) i , (4) yjc (5) , ^ ^ , /

> ,

, : . , . , . , , - , . , , 13 .

Sargent T J The End of Four Big Inflations // Robert HaJl(ed ) Inflation (Chicago: University of Chicago Press, 1983), pp. 41-98; Dornbusch R , Fisher S Stopping Hyperinflations- Past and Present // Weltwirtschaftlich.es

6.

26

I . . , , , .

.6-4 I II . 1922 1924 - Sargent T The End of Four Big Inflations, pp 41-98

. 6-4 1922 1924 . , . , 0,30 1921 . 1 1922, 8 1922, 100 1923 1 000 1923 , 1923 .

Arch.iv 122 (April 1986), SS 1-47

266

2.

1 2 000 , 15 - 20 000, 29 - 1 , 9 - 15 17 - 70 . 1923 . .

6-5 I II . 1922 1924 ,

, 1923 . , . , - , - , , . 6-514

Mussa M. Sticky Individual Prices and the Dynamics of the General Price Level // Carnegie-Rotchester Conference on Public Policy 15 (Autumn 1981), pp. 261-296.

6.

267

, , , . , , . . , , - - , .

6-6. , . . - , , , -, , . " , ". , , . . 3 4 , - ; , . , . . , . ? , .

268

2.

, . , , - , , 15 . , 1 %. 12 %? - , . , , , , . , - , 50 . , 100 . , , , " ", . . : , , . " ", , .

15

., , . Blinder A. Hard Heads, Soft Hearts: Tough-Minded Economics for a Just Society (Reading, Mass.: Addison Wesley, 1987).

6.

269

, " ", ; , , . , , . , , , . , 1 % , 12 %. , . , . . . , . . , - , * . , , . , . , 10 %, , , 100 . , 110 . . , , , 10 . , . , , ,

270

2.

, . , , . . "", . . , , , 1990 . 36 , 1991 - 35, 1992 . - 34 . , . - , , 1990 1991 .; , , "". , , . 6-8^^\'

, . Wall Street Journal , 1985 . , . , ? - , 25 , , , . . , 38

6.

271

2 000 X, , 8 000, - , , 370 1 100% - , 38- , , 25 , 500 000 , 50 , 900 000 , 27 " ," , " " , , , , , - , 18 000 12 000 " ", , 4 000 " ," " " , , , , 1 , , 15/ , 25 Wall Street Journal, 13 , 1985, Dow Jones & Company, Inc All Rights Reserved Worldwide.

, -, , , : . , , . , , , . , ex post, ,

272

2.

. , , , , . , , , , . , 1960 . 6% . - 2,5 %. , , 3,5 % , . , 5 %, ex post 1 %. - . , . ( ) . , . . , , , . , . . , , .

6.

273

( ), , , . , , . , , , , , . . . , , . , : , . 6-9

, 1896 . " " , , , " " XIX 1880 1896 . 23 % - - , . , , . .18 -

274

2.

" " 1896 . -, , . , , . : " , ". , - , . " ". , 1896 ., , , , . ( ) : (), ( ) , ( ). , , , . (), (). ( ) , . , 1 6 . 1896 ., , , : . , . , , .

, 40 , , . . Littlefield H.M. The Wizard of Oz: Parable on Populism //American Quarterly 16 (Spring 1964), pp. 47-58; and Rockoff H. The Wizard of Oz as a Monetary Allegory // Journal ofPolitical Economy 98 (August 1990), pp. 739-760.

16

6.

275

. 1896-1910 . 35%.

*W 7 ^ ' ; " ** , : . , , , . , , . , , . , , , . 6-7. : . , . 3, 4 5 , , , . . , , - , ; - , . . , ; 18*

276

2.

. - - . . . : , , . . , . . - , . . , , . . , , . , , . 8, . , . 1. - , . ,

.

277

. . , , , , , , , . , , . 2. , , , , . , , . , . 3."" - , . . "" , . 4. . , . 5. . , , . , . 6. " "," ", , , ,

278

2.

. . 7. , . . , , , , .

Ex Ante Ex Post " " " "

1. . 2. ? ? 3. ?

6.

27?

4. . 5. ? 6. ? 7. 6 8 %, ? 8. , . 9. . > , ' ~ "

, . , 1983 1988 . 2300 %. - , 1 ., 144 1983 . 2281 1988 . . . 7-14 , . , . . , . , ; , , . , . 7-14, , . , . , ,

7.

319

1 , 7-14 . 1970-1988 , , International Financial Statistics

, , , . - , , , - . - . - , , , . , , . , , . . , , -

320

2.

, . , . , , , , . , . . , . , , , , . , - . , . 7-15, , : . 7-15. . , , , .

7.

321

. , . . -, , . -, , - . ? , , . -, . , , -, , . -, , , . , "", - "". , "" "" , . , , . , , , . , , : , , 21 -

322

2.

. , , - , , , , . 7-4

, . , . "The Economist" , : . , . , ( ). 7-1 1990 ., . , . , 370 , , 370:2,20, 168 . . 7-1 18 . , - . 2 .

. , - , (- ) .

7.

323

, . , 168 159 . , . 7-1 : . ( ) 1,05 1,32 44,00 34,65 0,64 0,61 1,00 1,16 11,60 6,39 8,05 5,63 1,95 1,68 3,90 7,79 0,59 0,63 1773,00 1230,00 168,00 159,00 2,39 1,88 1,18 1,88 955,00 707,00 134,00 106,00 10,90 6,10 1,70 0,60 7,27 11,72 1,00 1,00 2,30 97,00 1,40 2,19 25,50 17,70 4,30 8,60 . 1,30 3< 00,00 70,00 5,25 2,60 2; 00,00 '< 95,00 24,00 3,75 16,00 2,20

[ - , The Economist, 1990 , 5 , 92

: .21'

324

2.

7-4. : , . , , , . , - -, - . "" , . , , , . , 3. , 3 , , , , , . , ? , . , , , . 80- . . , . , "", , . -, ,

7.

325

. , - , 80- . -, , . , , , , . . , , , 3, , . , . , "". , , . , , . , , , - . . , . , , , , , .

326

2.

1. . , , , . 2. . - , , . - , , . 3. - ; , da . , , - . 4. , , - - , , . 5. - , . , , . , . 6. , . . , , . 7. . .

7.

327

1. . , ? ? ? ? 2. , . ? 3. . 4. , , ? 5. , , ? 6. , , ?

1. , , , , , : ) ; ) "" , ; ) . 2. , ? ,

328

2.

? 3. , , . ) ? ) ? ) ? ) ? ) ? 4. " , 10 ", - . "10 1 . 1000 , - 1500". ? , 25%, - 100%, ? - , - . 5. , - 12 % , - 8 % . , . ) , 6, . ) ? ) : 8% 12%. ?

* *' ' . . - {

, , , , , , , . ,

7.

329

, , , . , . . - , . , (CF) . . 17-6. - , 3. , CF = . - . , . * CF = . , . - , . - : ,

. . 7-16. - . , . , . - .

330

2. .

.

- CF = CF(r). , , ,

, ,

1 Y = Y = F(K,L); 2. Y = C + I + G + NX, 3. Y = C(Y - T); 4 I = I(r); 5 NX = NX(e); 6. CF = CF(r); 7. NX + CF = 0. 1 2 3 4 5

7. * *

331

, S Y - - G S = I + NX. NX = -CF, S+CF=I.

6 7

, ( - ) , ( ) , ^ 7-17 S + CF , - I , 7-17 . (S + CF), (I)

[Y - C(Y - ) - G ] + CF(r) =I(i), S + CF(r) = I(r)

|> ($| - , -

332

2.

, . - : . , , , . 7-18. . , .. I , a CF . , , CF NX. NX , .. 7-18. . , -

, - (. 3) , . , - . , - , - - , , , 7

8

, - . , , . , 1898 . . 8-1, . - , , . 1982 . 2,5%, 10%. : , . . ,

336

3.

. - , .

1945 1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990:

. 8-1. . ' ( ), . - , , .. .

, , , 1980 1982 . : 1982 . . , , , , . . , , ,

8.

337

. , . , , . , , - . , , . 8-1.

, , , 3-7. , . , . "" - . , , . , , . , , 5%. , ( ), 22 -

338

3.

, .. , . 6, . ( ) 5%, , . . , , - , - . , . . - . . , , - . - . , , , . . , : . ,

8.

339

. , , -, - . , . , . , 1, , , . , , . "" - , . . . 8-1

.

? , . , , , . . , . , 37,7% , 17,4% 1 . . , , . ,

Blinder A.S. Why Are Prices Sticky? // American Economic Review Papers and Proceedings, 81 (May 1991), pp. 89-96.22*

1

340

3.

. 25%. , 4% , 2 . ? . , : , , , . , . , , , . , . . 11 , . , ( ) . .

8-2. - , , . , , .

2

Cecchetti S.G. The Frequency of Price Adjustment: the Study of Newsstand Prices of Magazines // Journal of Econometrics 31 (1986), pp. 255-274. * ,

8.

341

. . 6, MV = PY, - , V - ( ), - , a Y . , , , , . ( 6), : M/P = (M/P)d = kY, k = 1/V. , / (M/P)d, Y. , Y . . 8-2 Y, . . ? . , (PY). , , Y

342

3.

. Y, , , .. 8-2. . AD Y . ' , /, Y.

, . , , , . . , , /. . . , ; , , .

8.

343

. , Y, . , Y, .. . , . -, , , . (MV = PY) , , PY. , - . . 8-3, , Y, . ,\ ,. 8-3. .

, / , , , Y.

, , . , PY.

344

3.

, - . . 8-4, .. 8-4. . /, , Y

. , - . 9 10, . 8-3. : . , , Y, - .

8.

345

. - , , . , . : . . : , . 3, . , : Y = F ( , L ) = Y. , , . , .8-5. . , , . , , , . 8-6. ( E t ) (2). , .

346

3. . 8-5. . , , (LRAS)

, . 8-6. . , , '8

it i

,

, , , , . Y -

8.

347

: , , , . : . . . . . , . . . . , (. 8-7).. 8-7. . (SRAS)

,

Y

3.

. . , , , . 8-8. 2 . , .

9 IS-LM , IS , LM - , IS LM , . . IS-LM . -, . , IS-LM, , . - - , IS-LM , . , . -, , IS-LM , 8. , , IS-LM

400

3.

. , , , IS-LM . -, , , , . , - , . IS-LM . 10-1. IS-1M IS LM . , . , . -

. , IS. IS-LM , IS . AG. , , AG/(1-MPC). , . 10-1, IS , .

10. II

401

. , .. 10-1. IS-LM. IS Yj Y 2 . a - j rj-

, AT. , /(1-). , . 10-2, IS , . , . , . , IS-LM , . . 10-1 10-2: , IS. - , , , IS-LM , , 26 -

402

3.

. IS-LM - .. 10-2. IS-LM. IS . Y^ Y 2 . ^ ^.

, - - . , - LM. IS-LM , LM . . /, . , . LM (. . 10-3). . .

10. II

403. 10-3. IS-LM. LM . . Yj Yg. ^.

, , IS-LM , - . - 8, , , , . , . IS-LM , , . - - - , , ^. . 26'

404

3.

. , , , , , . ? , . . 10-4 . . 10-4 , . IS , . . 10-4 , . , IS , , . LM . , , , . . : i

10. II.

405

. 10-4. . , - 10-4 , 10-4 , 10-4 ,

,

Y

. . 10-4 , . , . , 7 - , , .. , , , . , . , , , . 10-1> &.

. IS-LM , - - .

406

3.

, . IS-LM , , . , , . , 100 . - , ? , IS-LM. . - , , . , , IS-LM. , , . , . 10-1 , DRI, , . . - , . - IS , , LM . - , . DM , 1,93, -1,19, .. 100 . 193 ., 100 . 119 . - ,

10. II

407

, LM . . 0,60, - 0,26. 100 . 60 ., 100 . 26 . 10-1 , - . - , .

10-1

- DRI

-

AY/AG AY/AT 1,93 0,60 -1,19 -0,26

: . , . : Eckstein . The DRI Model of the US Economy.(NY, 1983), p. 169.

IS-LM IS-LM , , , . , - IS - LM. : , IS, , LM.

408

3.

, IS, . , , , , " " - , , . , , , . : . IS , . . , IS, . , " " . . IS , . , LM, . , , 80- . , , , . , LM , . , IS LM . . - -

10. II

409

. , , IS LM, . * * * i * > %* - ",'), - , 10-2. IS-LM t

*; ^

IS-LM , , . , IS-LM , 8, , IS-LM . , IS-LM . IS - LM 8, . . . , . , IS-LM. -, IS-LM , , , ; , . -, , .

410

3.

'"^ ? , , IS-LM, . . 10-5 .. IS-LM.

,

,

. 10-5. IS-LM. .5 IS-LM: P j Pg L.M . LM Yj \^. .10-5 , : , .

/. LM - , . 10-5. , 2 , Yt Y^ LM . .10-5 , IS-LM.

10. II. -

411

. -

. 10-6. - - . 10-6 - . , LM . . . 10-6 - , . - IS , . .

412

3.

? IS-LM, , IS LM, . - - IS-LM , , (. 10-6). - - IS-LM , , . . IS-LM, , . IS-LM . , . 9 IS LM , , , . - + b(Y-T), I - - dr, L(r,Y) = eY - fr. , IS :

LM:

10. II = (e/f)Y - (l/f)M/P,

413

a, b, , d, e f - . . , , IS, LM. IS LM :

Y. Y :

z-f/[f+de/(l-b)], z . . , , - (G ), - (), . , Y G, ..11- 10 2

- - , - - - -

414

3.

. IS-LM, IS LM. . , . , , - , -, , , d, . , , d . , d , IS , LM . , d z, , - . , , . , , - , -, , , f, . f , z , .. ; LM . , f , . . , , . , - - , .

. -, , / , , Y. -, , ,

10. II

415

. -, , , . , z , - IS-LM , . z . , , IS-LM, , 8 . , . , , f . f , z , - . , , 8, , . IS-LM IS-LM , . , , , IS-LM , , . IS-LM , , , 3. . 10-7 , :

416

3.

IS, LM , Y. , LM , IS LM. .10-7 . . , , , . , , , . , , , . 2 , - . , . IS-LM LM: , , LM . . ( ) , . - , - , , . *

J

10. II

417

( ) , . , .. IS-LM .

,

,

. 10-7. . , IS-LM . 10-7, .10-7. Pj. . , . .

-, , . - IS LM: Y = C(Y-T) + 1() + G IS / = L(r,Y). LM : Y, . , 27 -

418

3.

"" , , Y , IS LM. , , Y = Y. , , IS LM, . ? . . 3 6 , . . . 10-3. , , , : ? , , . , IS-LM 1.

, .: Friedman M., Schwartz A. A Monetary History of the United States, 1867-1960 (Princeton University

10. II ?

419 10-2

- - - - - - - - - 1929 1930 1931 1932 1933 1934 1935 1936 1937 1938 1939 19403.2 8.9

16.3 24.1 25.2 22.0 20.3 17.0 14.3 19.1 17.2 14.6

203.6 183.5 169.5 144.2 141.5 154.3 169.5 193.2 203.2 192.9 209.4 227.2

139.6 130.4 126.1 114.8 112.8 118.1 125.5 138.4 143.1 140.2 148.2 155.7

40.4 27.4 16.84.7 5.3 9.4

22.0 24.3 25.4 24.2 23.3 26.6 27.0 31.8 30.8 33.9 35.2 36.4

5,9 3,6 2,6 2,7 1,7 1,0 0,8 0,8 0,9 0,8 0,6 0,6

26,6 25,8 54,1 21,19,9

50,6 49,3 44,8 40,2 39,3 42,2 42,6 42,7 44,5 43,9 43,2 43,9

[-2,6

- 0,1

1-9,32,27,4 0,9 0,2 4,2

18.0 24.0 29.9 17.0 24.7 33.0

21,9 25,9 29,6 30,9,5

1,3

34,2 59,7

1,61,6

52,6 52,3 54,5 52,5 50,7 51,8 60,8 62,9 69,5 ^9,5 79,1 90,3

1: Historical Statistics of the United States, Colonial Times to 1970, Parts I and II, , 1975, , O.K. - D9. , , - F3, F48, F52 F66 ( ., 1958 .). - 4-6- , 445. - 414 ( + , .). - (1958 . 100), 1. - . , 100% ( ., 1958 .).

, , 10-2 - , . , . , ? IS? LM? - ?

Press, 1963); Temin P. Did Monetary Forces Cause the Great Depression? (NY, 1976); Brunner K.(ed.) The Great Depression Revisited (Boston, 1981).27*

420

3.

: , IS 30- . , , IS. , . . , IS . , 1929 . , , -, . . , 20- . , "" , . 30- .: . , , . . , . 30- . , , , , , , 2.

Bernanke . Non-Monetary Effects of the Financial Crisis in the Propagation of the Great Depression // American Economic Review 73 (June

10. II

421

, - 30- . IS. , . 1932 . , , 3. : " ". . , IS. . , . , . : , LM 10-2 , 1929 1933 . 25%, 3,2 25,2%. , , 4. ,

1983), pp. 257-276. Brown E.C. Fiscal Policy in the Thirties: A Reappraisal // American Economic Review 46 (December 1956), pp. 857-879. 18 ( 18-1), .3

422

3.

. , . IS-LM , LM. . . - LM , . 1929 1931 . , . , , 1931 1933 ., , , , 1929-1931 . . LM , . 1929 1933 . . , , LM. , ? , - , - 30- . : 1929 1933 . 25 %. . , 1931 .,

10. II

423

. , . , , , , . , , IS-LM. IS-LM, , . /. LM , . , , . , - 30- ., , . , , , , . IS, . 30- . , . , , . , , . , , .

424

3.

. , 6: . 100 ., 100/, - . - , . . , . , . * , . , , - . , . , IS , , . , , IS-LM . . , , - . i - , , ex ante i - . , IS-LM : e Y=C(Y-T)+I(i-ir )+G IS, M/P-L(i,Y) LM.

10. II

425

IS. , IS. IS-LM , . , , . (ire=O), IS-LM. , , . . 10-8 , . , . IS. , Yx Y2. i i 2 , 2.. 10-8. IS-LM. , . IS. Yj Y#j. ij ig), a ]

Y 2 Yt ,

Y

, - - .

426

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10. II

427

. , , . , , , 30- . , . 10-4. , . - - . , . , IS-LM , . , , , . IS-LM . , 15 . IS-LM, - - . IS-LM, 9 10, . 1. IS-LM . -

428

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1. , . 2. , , ? 3. , , ? 4. .

10. II

429

1. , , IS-LM, : ) ? ) ? ) ? ) ? 2. . ) : C=200+0,75x(Y-T). : 1=200-25. 100. IS 0 8. ) : (/) =Y-100r. 1000, 2. LM 0 8. ) Y. ) , 100 150. IS? ? ) , 1000 1200. LM? ? ) - , 2 4. ? ? ) . - - , ? 3. , . - - . ) , IS . ) , LM . ) , LM . ) , LM . 4. , , . - - IS-LM ? 80- .

430

3.

, - . ? 5. IS-LM, , : ) ; ) ; ) . 6. - : , . IS-LM, ) ? ) ? 7. , , , .. : / = ,). IS-LM, , ) ; ) . (: C=C(Y-T).)

11

- . , , , . . 9 10 IS-LM, , -, . , , . , . . 8 , , .

432

3.

. , , . , , . , . 8 , , . , . , . , . , - , -. , , : . , , . , , , . , , , .

.

433

11-1. , . . , . : Y = Y + ( - ), > ,

Y - , Y - , - , - . , , . , ; \/ - . , . , , . , , . , , 28 -

434

3.

, , , . , , . , . , , "". , . , . 1. , , . 2. , . 3. . , , , . , , , . - - . , . ,

11.

435

, , , , .., 5. , W, w . W w " .

= 1

, , . : W/P =X

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=

X

.

, , . , ; 28*

436

3.

, . , , , . , ; , , . : L = Ld(W/P), .. , , . 11-1 . : Y = F(L), , (.. 11-1). . 11-1 . , , . , , . , Y = Y + ( - ). , 1. .

, .: Gray J. Wage Indexation: A Macroeconomic Approach // Journal of Monetary Economics 2 (April 1976), pp. 221-235; Fisher S. Long-term Contracts, Rational Expectations, and the Optimal Money Supply Rule // Journal of Political Economy 85

11. . .

437

.

. 11-1. . . 11-1 . , ^ 2 W/PJL W/P2- , L< Lo- . 11-1 L< Lo Y^ Y. .11-1 , . Pj >2 Y^ Y-

,

, , . (February 1977), pp. 191-205.

138

3.

> , . , > . > . ), , , ) : L d = Ld(W/P). -: L s = LW/P"). , . W, . , , , W, .

"" : W/P /*. , , , W/Pe : s S e L - L (W/P x P/P ). , ?$1

(

'

>

11.

439

. , , . 11-2. , , , , . , , , , .. / . 11-2. : . g - [ , JE ' fc 2 _ ( - jg , - 5

. . , . , , , . . , . : , -

440

3.

. . , , , . / - , . 11-3. . , , , , . 11-3. : . , , , ,

, . , , . , , , , , . , .

11.

441

, : Y = Y + ( - ). 2. 11-1

\

^ ---";/ \ , -^

' 's'\s* \ - .-"'4 :;-ii*#

( ) . , , , . , : , . " ...", " ". " ..." , , . . 11-4 1953 . , , , , -. , . , :

, , : Friedman M. The Role of Monetary Policy // American Economic Review 68 (March 1968), pp. 1-17.

442

3.

.

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, , , . . , , .

11.

443

, . , , , . , , 3 .

\

- - . , . . , , . , . , , - , . - .: Geary . , Kennan J. The Employment-Real Wage Relationship: An International Study // Journal of Political Economy 90 (August 1982), pp. 854-871; Bils M.J. Real Wages over the Business Cycle: Evidence from Panel Data //Journal of Political Economy 93 (1985), pp. 666-689; Silver S., Sumner S. Real Wages, Employment and the Phillips Curve/'/ Journal of Political Economy 97 (June 1989), pp. 706-720.

444

3.

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11.

445

, . , . . . , , . . . , , , , . :*

Y = Y + ( - )., 4.

- - , . . , .: Lucas R.E., Jr. Understanding Business Cycles // Stabilization of the Domestic and International Economy, vol.5 of Carnegie-Rochester Conference on Public Policy (Amsterdam: North-Holland Publishing Company, 1977); reprinted in Lucas R.E., Jr. Studies in Business Cycle Theory (Cambridge, Mass.: MIT Press, 1981). i , - . . . .

446

3.

. - : , . () . . , , (.. ). : - ( , . , , ); - Y ( ; , , ). , , , : = + a(Y-Y). - , . , ^~^ 5 .

. , , .

11.

447

, . , : ( . v : , , : = + a(Y e - 7 ), , , . , , , .. a(Ye-Ye) . : = . ^ , , . , . , , , , . s - , (1 - s) - , = s + (l-s)[P + ( Y - Y)]. , , , - , , . (l-s)P : sP = sP e + (l-s)[a(Y - Y)]. s, : = + [(l-s)a/s](Y - Y). . ,

448

3.

. , , . . , . , . , . . , . : * Y = Y + ( - ),

= sA(l - s)a]. , , , . , , . , , , , . . , , . , ,

11.

449

6.

, . . 70- . , , . , . . , . (.. - ). , , , , . , , (.. or ). , . , , . ,

.: Rotemberg J. Monopolistic Price Adjustment and Aggregate Output // Review of Economic Studies 49 (1982), pp. 517-531; Ball L., Mankiw N.G. and Romer D. The New Keynesian Economics and the Output-Inflation Tradeoff // Brookings Papers on Economic Activity no.l (1988), pp. 1-65.29 -

450

3.

7. , . , , . , , . , , . , . . : . . , . , , , 8 . , , - , . , ( s ). , ( - ).

Lucas R.E. Jr. Some International Evidence on Output-Inflation Tradeoffs // American Economic Review 63 (June 1973), pp. 326-334; repr. in Lucas R.E. Studies in Business Cycle Theory (Cambridge, Mass.: MIT Press, 1981).

Ball L., Mankiw G.N. and Romer D. The New Keynesian Economics and the Output-Inflation Tradeoff // Brookings Papers on Economic Activity no.l (1988), pp. 1-65. (

11.

451

. 11-5 , , . . - , , .. . - - - , , , |,"" '';

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. 11-5. . : - - .

, . . 29'

452

3.

, . , , , . : Y = Y + ( - ). , . 11-6 . , . , .. 11-6. . , .

, . 11-7 , . .

11.

453

, , . , .. . , . , .. 11-7. . , - , , . , , - , . , .

11-2. , . , . - ; -

454

3.

. , , . , - : ; , .. ; . : / \ . ~ IP "1" ,

=

-, . , : . , , : = + (l/a)(Y - Y). , . P_t : ( - .) = ( - .!) + (l/a)(Y - Y). ( - ^)

11.

455

, 9 . - _ , . , - P_t ir, - P_t -:% = 7t + (l/a)(Y - Y).e

2, . , ; .. , . , - ( - ) (l/a)(Y - Y). : - ~ p(u - "). , , , , : - - ( - 11) + . , . . , : , . ,

. , . , , - . , dP = a\log p) = dp/p.

456

3.

. - .

... 1958 . 1 0 . , *~ , . -, . , . . -, . . 60- . XX , . -, . ( - ). 70- . , .

, ,

Phillips A.W. The Relationship between Unemployment and the Rateof Change of Money Wages in the United Kingdom, 1861-1957 // Economica 25 (November 1958), pp. 283-299.

11.

457

. , . , , , , . , - ir_! - p(u - ) + , .. , . 7r_t , . , . , , . , 70- . : " &? , , , , ". . , . , . , , , , , . , , . ir e - 7_

458

3.

, . n p(u - u ) , - . . , . . , . , . , 70- ., . , , , . , , 80- ., . 11-3

, . . 1-8 1961 . . 60- . . 1964 ., , 5%. 60- .

,

11.

459

. , , , . 70- . . , 60- . . , , , . 1972 . , , 3 . . 11-8. 1 9 6 1 . ( , ) , .

( ) 1973 . , - (). 70- ., 10%. 1975 . , 70- . 80- . . , . 1982 1983 .

160

3.

40 . , 1986 ., 10% 3%. 1987 . 6% 1 . 80- , . , > . 60- 80- . : 60- . , 80- - . 70- . .

, , . * . , , - - , , , . . 11-9 , . , . , . , :

11.

461

. . 11-10 , .

. 11-9. , . , , .

. 11-10. . . ,

, . , : . , . ,

462

3.

, , , 6 2 %? , , . ? , , , . . . , . , . , , , , : 1 , 5 11. . , 1 2 . , 1 2,5 .

Arthur M. Okun Efficient Disinflationary Policies //American Economic Review 68 (May 1978): 348-352; Robert J.Gordon and Steven R. King The Output Cost of Disinflation in Traditional and Vector Autoregressive Models // Brookings Papers on Economic Activity no.l (1982): 205-245.

11.

463

, . 1 5 , 4 20 . , 10 . , . , 10% ; " "12. 5 % . , .. , 2% . , , , . , . , , , , . , , , 1 *?

" " cold turkey - " " - , , , , , . - . .

464

3.

, , . , - - . , - , . , , . , , . . , . , , , - ... , , ; , , , . , , , ...[ ] :

11.

465

, , ... , 13 . , , . , , . , . , , , . : . . -, . -, , , ; . , , . , , -

Sargent T.G. The Ends of Four Big Inflations // in Hall R.E (ed.) Inflation: Causes and Effects (Chicago: University of Chicago Press, 1982).

13

466

3.

, . , , , , , . , , . . 11-4

80- . . , , , . , . , ? , 9,7% 1981 . - 1986 . ( , ) 1985 . 1985 . 3,0 %, 6,7 . , . 11-1 1982-1985 . 6%, . 9,5 . , 1 2 . , 19,0 % .

11.

467

11-1 1982 1983 1984 1985 9.5% 9.5 7.4 7.1 6.0% 6.0 6.0 6.0 3.5% 3.5 1.4 1.1 9.5%

. , 19,0 % 6,7 . , 19,0/6,7, 2,8 % 1 . , 2.8. , . , , . , , , : 1982 . .

11-3. : , , , - . : .30'

468

3.

, , . - - 70- . , , - - . 14. , . " ..." , , . , , . , , . . , ; , . , . , , , , | . ,

11.

469

. . " " , , , . , - , . , , , "", . , . , , , , , , ? , "" " ": , . . , , , : . , , , , ( LM ). , , . ,

470

3.

, . , . , , . , . , , , , , . , , , . . , , . , , . . , : -

.: Mankiw G.N. Small Menu Costs and Large Business Cycles: A Macroeconomic Model of Monopoly // Quarterly Journal of Economics 100 (May 1985), pp. 529-537; Akerlof G.A., Yellen J. A.Near Rational Model of the Business Cycle, with Wage and Price Inertia // Quarterly Journal of Economics 100 (Supplement 1985), pp. 823-838; and Blanchard O.J. and Kiyotaki N. Monopolistic Competition and the Effects of Aggregate Demand // American Economic Review 77 (September 1987), pp. 647-666. Mankiw G. and Romer D. (eds.) New Keynesian Economics (Cambridge, Mass.: MIT Press, 1991).

11.

471

. 10 , 10 1 , . , . , : , - . 10 , 15 . , . , - , . (, , , .) , 15 , , , 1 , . , . , . . , , , , , , . . ,

472

3.

, . , , . , 15. , . , , . , - , , 20- 30-. , . , . , , , . , ,

.: Taylor J. Staggered Price Setting in a Macro Model // American Economic Review 69, (May 1979), pp. 108-113; Blanchard O.J. Price Asynchronization and Price Level Inertia // in Dornbusch R.and Simonsen M. (eds.) Inflation, Debt, and Indexation (Cambridge, Mass.: MIT Press, 1983), pp. 3-24. Mankiw G. and Romer D. ( eds.) New Keynesian Economics (Cambridge, Mass.: MIT Press, 1991).

11.

473

, . , , . . , . , , . . 11-11, , . 2 = 1 30 . 2 30 . 1 5 . 2 15 .

1 1 15 . 2 5 . 1 15 . 2 15 .

. 11-11. . "" , , , , , 7

, , , 15 . , , , 30 . ,

474

3.

. , , . , , 5 ., 15. , , , , . , , , . . , ? , , , , , 30 . . , , , , - 15 . , : , . , 15 ., . , . , , , . , , , , .17

16

.17