ОБОСНОВАНИЕ ПРОЕКТА ПОПУТНОГО ИЗВЛЕЧЕНИЯ РЕНИЯ ИЗ РАСТВОРОВ ПОДЗЕМНОГО ВЫЩЕЛАЧИВАНИЯ УРАНА.pdf

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  • -

    : ,

    .., , . -..

    .., ...

    ..

    .., - , , , ...

    2005

  • -

    .

    .

    ,

    .

    .

    .

    .

    - .

    ,

    .

    ,

    .

    .

    ,

    .

    77 , 27 19

    . 23 ,

    .

  • :

    . 1. ....................................18

    . 2 . ...................23

    . 3 2002-04 .. ( US

    Geological Survey). ...........................................................................................................25

    . 4

    . ..................................................................26

    . 5 . ............................26

    . 6 . ..........................................29

    . 7 ......................................................41

    . 8 ..42

    . 9 ..............................43

    . 10 . .......................44

    . 11 ........................................45

    . 12 . ...................................................................46

    . 13 . .................................47

    . 14 . .................................48

    . 15 . ............................................................48

    . 16 . .....................................................................................49

    . 17 . ...........................................................................................................49

    . 18 . ...............................................................................50

    . 19 . ..............................................................................50

    . 20 ,

    . ............................................................................................................................51

    . 21 . ...............................55

    . 22 ......................60

    . 23 .........................65

    . 24

    . ............................................................................................................................66

    . 25 .67

    . 26 .......................69

    . 27 , . ..........................................73

  • - 1 -

    :

    1. . ....................................................................................................................3

    1.1. . .............................................................................................3

    1.2. . .......................................................................................................5

    1.3. ..........................................................................................5

    2. . ..................................................................................................8

    2.1. . ................................................................8

    2.2. ....................................9

    2.3. .............................13

    2.4. . ...............................13

    2.5.

    . ................................................................................................................15

    2.6. .......................................................................16

    2.7. . ...................................................................................17

    2.8. . ...............................18

    3. . ..............................................20

    3.1. . .........................................................20

    3.2. . ............................................................23

    3.2.1. , ..................23

    3.2.2. . ...........................................................26

    3.2.3. . .........................................................27

    3.2.4. . .............................28

    4. . ....................................................29

    4.1.

    . .............................................................................................29

    4.2. . ............................................30

    4.3. . .........................................................31

    5. . ......................................................................................................33

    5.1. ...............................................................................33

    5.2. . .................................35

    5.2.1. . ...............................................................................................35

    5.2.2. . ....................................................................36

    5.2.3. . .................................................................36

  • 2

    5.2.4. . .....................................................................36

    5.2.5. ...................37

    5.2.6. . ........................................................................37

    5.2.7. ...................37

    5.3. . ...................................................................38

    6. . .............................................................................41

    6.1. . .........................................42

    6.1.1. ......................................................43

    6.1.2. . ................................................................................44

    6.1.3. . ...................................................................45

    6.1.4. .................................................................................46

    6.2. .............................................................................47

    7. . ............................................................53

    7.1. ...53

    7.2. . ..................................................................................57

    7.3. . .........................................................................58

    7.4. . ......................................59

    7.5. . ..................................................................59

    7.6. -........................................................63

    7.7. . ....................................................................................65

    7.7.1. . ..............................................................................65

    7.7.2. .....65

    7.7.3. . ....66

    7.7.4. . .........................................66

    7.7.5.

    ..............................................................................................67

    7.7.6. ....................................................69

    7.7.7. /

    ...................................................................70

    8. . ..........................................................72

    9. . ..............................................................................................................73

  • 3

    Re 75 186,207 (/3) 21,01 toC 3180 t.oC 5627

    1. .

    , 3180, .

    ,

    .

    . - .

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    .

    , .. ,

    ,

    .

    .

    .

    2800

    , .

    .

    1.1. .

    , ,

    . ,

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    . () , ..

    ,

    (, , ..) ,

    :

  • 4

    0

    11TT=

    , ,

    , ,

    , , ,

    , ,

    .., ..

    , ,

    . , ,

    ,

    .

    .

    .

    60- Chevron, Inc. UOP,

    Inc. .

    ,

    . .., ,

    , .

    , , . ,

    ,

    , , ,

    - .

    , -

    0,7 .

    .

    ,

    ,

    , ,

    .

  • 5

    1.2. .

    :

    .

    - .

    .

    .

    , ,

    .

    1.3. .

    ,

    .

    ,

    , , ,

    .

    ().

    ,

    .

    , ,

    ,

    , 0,1 5

    /.

    50-

    100 /. ,

    , .

    , ,

    20 .

  • 6

    2 20

    , .

    Purolite International Limited ()

    ,

    .

    , ,

    .

    90%.

    ,

    .

    ,

    .

    -

    .

    2500 .

    . ,

    .

    19%

    , 900 .

    ,

    , ()

    .

    .

    ,

    (COGEMA) (CAMECO).

    3000 .

    ,

    .

    (. 1)

  • 7

    : , .

    .

    :

    . ,

    .

    . ,

    ,

    .

    ,

    .

    -

    2,000

    4,000

    6,000

    8,000

    10,000

    12,000

    14,000

    16,000

    18,000

    2004. 2005. 2006. 2007. 2008. 2009. 2010. 2015.

    ,

    .

    . 1 .

  • 8

    2. .

    2.1. .

    90-

    .

    .

    . 2

    .

    , , . -

    .

    . ,

    .

    , ,

    ..

    , , .

    , 20%

    , 15%

    , 5%

    . , 5%

    . , 5%

    , 45%

    , 5%

    ,20%

    . 2 [].

  • 9

    2.2. .

    ,

    , ,

    , , , ..

    .

    .

    ,

    , ..

    , ,

    . ,

    .

    ,

    .

    .

    ,

    ,

    , .

    1999 Andrew Brown,

    Roskill Co. (), , 80%

    ,

    [1].

    Pratt & Whitney General Electric,

    . Cannon Muskegon,

    ,

    Rolls Royce 1.

    3% .

    , 6%.

    . ..

    1 Anthony Lipmann, Rhenium: - From Copper Mine to Gas Turbine. - 2000.

  • 10

    -47,

    9%. 1000 350

    [2].

    . 75%

    . 1999 74 .

    [ 3 ]. 66% , 17% -

    , 9% - .

    Dale Schenk Pratt & Whitney , 40%

    18 27

    , [4].

    CMSX-4, Cannon Muskegon,

    ,

    Trent 500, Airbus A340-500 600,

    Eurofighter Typhoon.

    Pratt & Whitney GE 767,

    Rolls Royce 777. 767

    PW 4184 38,1 , PWA

    1484, GE90 40,8 ,

    Rene N5 3% . Rolls Royce Trent 892 41,7

    Trent 895 43,1

    Cannon Muskegon CMSX-10 6% (,

    RR3000, Cannon Muskegon Rolls

    Royce). Rolls Royce Trent 892 25

    1.

    , 1998

    12,3 . , 2018

    26 , 70% [5].

    Billie Jones,

    Pratt & Whitney, , 15 .

    20 ,

    1999 [6]. 37 38 .

    . Jones ,

    1 Anthony Lipmann, Rhenium: - From Copper Mine to Gas Turbine. - 2000.

  • 11

    ,

    .

    Rolls-Royce 20

    18,7 : 17920

    100 , 820 ( 15

    ). 48,1

    , .

    .

    2005

    1.

    ,

    . , ,

    18%2.

    , - ,

    .

    Joint Strike Fighter, 3 .

    , 6 . 3.

    .

    ,

    ,

    .

    1650 ,

    . ,

    , ,

    , .

    GE

    Power Systems, Alstom Gas Turbines, Siemens Westinghouse, ABB Fiat.

    , ,

    . 1 Superalloys Fly High. Tom Stundza, Executive Editor, Purchasing, July 15, 2004. 2 . 3 2004 Roskill Information Services. All rights reserved.

  • 12

    . 3 .

    . . 4,

    10% . ,

    .

    . 4 [7].

    GE, Pratt&Whitney, Rolls Royce .

    . ,

    Canon Muskegon ,

    .

    [8].

    , ,

    . Molymet (), Cyprus

    (), Rhenium Alloys (), H.C.Starck (), W.C.Heraeus ().

  • 13

    . 4 . 2000 100%.

    2.3. .

    ,

    .

    , .

    , ,

    .

    . ,

    .

    2.4. .

    60-70-

    ,

    . , Chevron

    UOP, .

    , .

  • 14

    0,3% 0,3%

    , . ,

    , , 7 .

    , : UOP, Criterion

    Catalysts .,

    . , 5-10 /,

    , ,

    , .. .

    , ,

    . ,

    600 , .. 1,8 /,

    .

    .

    1000 / ,

    .

    .

    .

    : 1997 220 ; 1998 478 ; 1999 295 ; 2000 70

    ; 2001 250 . 50-100 /

    200

    .

    ,

    ,

    500-800 /.

    ,

    .

    .

    80-95% . , ,

    2-3 / .

    .

    "" 150-250 (

    ""). 2 5

  • 15

    .

    300 1250 /. (),

    , .. 300-400 .

    .

    ,

    300 /, 1 .

    , , .

    .

    80- ,

    , .. -

    -. , ,

    ,

    , .. 200

    1995 . 2000 1996 .

    ,

    ,

    4 [9].

    ,

    .

    , BASF, DuPont Zeneca/ICI

    Lycra Spandex.

    2.5.

    .

    ( 50:50).

    .

    , 5 26% ,

  • 16

    .

    41-47,5% .

    ,

    .

    ( . ,

    ), , - 48-

    19-510-91, 48-19-512-91,

    - -27 48-19-274-91,

    - -47 48-19-254-91.

    100-1000 .

    ,

    .

    .

    (60 120-140)

    " ".

    , , -,

    .

    2.6. .

    .

    , ,

    .

    .

    .

    .

  • 17

    Super Alloys

    , .

    [10]. -

    ,

    ,

    .

    [11].

    2.7. .

    ,

    NH4ReO4.

    ,

    , ,

    .

    .

    Re 69,4%.

    100 ppm1 "" .

    ,

    .

    150. 360 .

    , ..

    600.

    . . 1,3-1,5 /,

    100 ppm. ,

    70 ppm.

    (VII),

    , .

    ,

    ( ),

    1 ppm parts per million, .. .

  • 18

    ,

    ..

    2.8. .

    . 1. .

    1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 , 6,600 7,500 6,300 4,400 4,600 , 14,700 15,900 23,400 16,600 14,500

    , 21,300 23,400 29,600 21,000 19,100 , :

    , 99.99% 1,100 1,010 910 1,030 1,110

    610 510 790 810 840

    . 1

    .

    , ,

    , ,

    .

    ,

    , ,

    , 2023 43-54 .

    .

    ,

    .

    ,

    , , ,

    , 25 .

    537,5- 675

    20 , 26,9 - 33,75 .

    . 3,

    5 800 .

    ,

    , ,

  • 19

    ,

    .

    ,

    10 5 .

    , 5

    36,9 43,75 .

    ,

    , .

    41 ,

    . ,

    60 75% , 1-2

    24,6 30,75 . ,

    .

    4 .

    ,

    , ,

    ,

    (-).

    .

    ,

    . , ,

    ,

    .

    70%.

    ,

    10 52,7 62,5 .

    , .

  • 20

    3. .

    3.1. .

    , ,

    ,

    - .

    - [12].

    , (4+),

    (S2).

    .

    .

    ,

    .

    .

    .

    ,

    Re2O7

    .

    . 3,

    ,

    .

    ,

    , , -,

    , -,

    .

    ,

    ,

    .

  • 21

    Cu, Mo, Re

    Cu, Mo, Re

    Cu, Re

    -

    Mo, Re

    Cu, Re

    Re

    Re

    Cu

    Cu

    Cu

    Mo

    Re

    Re

    . 5 - .

  • 22

    ,

    .

    .

    3383

    2885

    2751

    2278

    2692

    3262

    2498

    2395

    1734

    1638

    1841

    1559

    8000

    9000

    10000

    11000

    12000

    13000

    14000

    1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001

    ,

    .

    1000

    1500

    2000

    2500

    3000

    3500

    4000

    ,

    $

    , .

    , $

    . 6 ,

    .

    . 6 ,

    .

    .

    , , ,

    .

  • 23

    3.2. .

    (The Economics of Rhenium, Roskill

    Information Service), 41

    .

    35,5 37 ,

    [13].

    . 7 ,

    ,

    .

    .

    . 8

    2004 . ,

    ,

    .

    . 2 1.

    2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 , 7100 5500 4000 3900 4200

    , 16400 23400 16600 14500 15700

    , 23500 28900 20600 18400 19900

    , , ():

    , 99.99% 940 910 1030 1090 985 510 790 810 790 840

    3.2.1. , .

    ,

    ( ).

    .

    -

    Molymet, Sierrita (Phelps Dodge), Fort Madison (Phelps Dodge), Cyprus ,

    Sadaci .

    1 U.S. Geological Survey, Mineral Commodity Summaries, January 2005.

  • 24

    9.5

    13.7

    13.5

    9.6

    15.2

    18.4 19

    24.4 2

    6.7

    35.2

    33.6

    36.6

    32

    24.2 2

    6.7 28

    .2

    22.7

    35.6

    46

    43 43

    0

    1000

    2000

    3000

    4000

    5000

    6000

    7000

    8000

    1980

    1981

    1982

    1983

    1984

    1985

    1986

    1987

    1988

    1989

    1990

    1991

    1992

    1993

    1994

    1995

    1996

    1997

    1998

    1999

    2000

    ,

    $

    0

    5

    10

    15

    20

    25

    30

    35

    40

    45

    50

    ,

    , $/ ,

    . 7 .

    0.00

    200.00

    400.00

    600.00

    800.00

    1,000.00

    1,200.00

    1,400.00

    1,600.00

    31.12.2004 02.11.2004 20.08.2004 09.07.2004 04.06.2004 01.05.2004 01.04.2004 15.03.2004 13.02.2004

    ,

    $

    (69,4% ) , US$/

    , US$ /

    . 8 2004 .

  • 25

    (Molymet Cyprus Amax) . , ,

    Kennecott Huckleberry (

    ) Sadaci,

    .

    . 3 8 2002-04 .. ( US Geological Survey).

    , 2002 2003 2004

    9, .

    10, .

    4,4 3,9 4,2 0,39 4,5 0,8 1,0 1,0 0,095 0,12 1,7 1,7 1,7 1,5 14,1 15,6 15,6 1,3 2,5 2,6 2,6 2,9 0,19 0,25 5,0 5,0 5,0 0,045 0,55 1,4 1,4 1,4 0,31 0,40 1,0 1,0 1,0 0,091 0,36 () 31,0 32,0 33,0 2,40 10,0

    Chucuicamata Codelco

    22,7 . ,

    Molymet ,

    Codelco .

    , 12

    .

    , , .

    . 4 ,

    (),

    . ,

    8 , / . 9 , . - . 10 , ,

  • 26

    .

    Roskill , Molymet,

    ,

    , ,

    Sadaci .

    Phelps Dodge

    - .

    .

    ,

    1,5 .

    . 4 11.

    Molymet 15-17

    Codelco

    Cyprus Amax 6

    2,5-3

    . 5 .

    H.C. Starck 2

    W.C. Heraeus 2

    Cyprus Amax Rotterdam 1.5

    Cannon Muskegon 2

    Gemini, Ultramet, Rhenium Alloys 2

    3.2.2. .

    , .

    , .

    UK 11 Rhenium: - From Copper Mine to Gas Turbine. By Anthony Lipmann Lipmann Walton & Co Ltd.,

  • 27

    (. )

    ,

    .

    , .. ,

    .

    .

    20

    .

    , - .

    ( )

    .

    ,

    .

    , .

    3.2.3. .

    .

    .

    .

    - ,

    . , -

    Asia Rhenium Resource.

    , ,

    Sadaci, . ,

    ,

    .

  • 28

    ,

    -

    .

    3.2.4. .

    () (, "").

    , 2-4

    ,

    .

    , , ,

    , ,

    .

    (. ), ,

    , .

    .

    ,

    :

    .

    , , .

    . .

    .

    , .

    .

    .

  • 29

    4. .

    4.1.

    .

    . 6

    .

    . 6 .

    4 (, , ..)

    3 , ( ; , ..)

    2 ( , , )

    1 (, , ..)

    , ,

    ,

    .

    (1 2 3 4). ,

    , .

    , , ,

    .

    (1 2). Asia Rhenium

    Resource .. ,

    ,

    .

    3 4 .

  • 30

    , ,

    .

    (1 2 3). . Molymet Cyprus Amax.

    ,

    .

    ,

    .

    ,

    ,

    .

    (2 3). . , Cyprus Amax

    Rotterdam, Cannon Muskegon, Gemini, Ultramet, Rhenium Alloys . ,

    ,

    ,

    .

    -

    .

    .

    (3 4). . Molymet, Cyprus, Rhenium Alloys, H.C.Starck and W.C. Heraeus Cannon

    Muskegon, , ,

    Rolls Royce. ,

    .

    4.2. .

    ,

    .

    ,

    .

  • 31

    ,

    . , ,

    ,

    .

    ,

    . Alex Stewart (Assayers)

    Ltd ().

    , London Metal Exchange (LME), Commodity Exchange -

    (COMEX), Minor Metals Traders Association (MMTA) .

    , , Societe

    Generale de Surveillance (SGS), Sheffield Assay Office .

    ,

    ,

    3 . 6.

    , ,

    , . ,

    .

    . -

    .

    . .

    ,

    , , ,

    , .

    4.3. .

    . ,

    UOP Criterion Catalysts ,

    .

    , , 0,3%

  • 32

    . . ,

    ,

    .

    .

    ,

    .

    , .

    , ,

    ,

    , . ,

    ,

    , .

    .

    ,

    .

    . : Molymet,

    Cyprus, Rhenium Alloys, H.C.Starck W.C. Heraeus,

    . - ,

    (),

    .

  • 33

    5. .

    ,

    .

    ,

    .

    ,

    , .

    .

    ,

    .

    ,

    .

    .

    .

    ,

    ,

    .

    5.1. .

    , .

    :

    : .

    : .

  • 34

    : ; ; ; . :

    o ; o ; o .

    : o , ; o ,

    ;

    o , : , , , ..

    : , , .

    : ,

    , . .

    (). .

    .

    -.

    . .

    . .

    ( ).

    : , .

    : - . .

    -

    .

    : o (start up)

    ;

    o ; o

    ;

  • 35

    o ;

    o .

    ,

    .

    :

    o ;

    o .

    : o ; o ; o ; o .

    : . :

    o ; 50+N%; o ; 10-40%; o , ,

    ; 5-20%.

    5.2. .

    5.2.1. .

    , . 4-2, ,

    5-15% 5 10 .

    , ,

    .

  • 36

    5.2.2. .

    ,

    6%,

    ,

    .

    , ,

    .

    , .

    .

    -

    . ,

    ,

    .

    5.2.3. .

    ,

    . ..,

    .

    ,

    .

    ,

    , .

    , , -

    .

    .

    5.2.4. .

    .

  • 37

    ,

    , .

    , ,

    .

    .

    .

    , , ,

    .

    .

    5.2.5. .

    , ,

    , ,

    .

    , . .

    , . ,

    .

    5.2.6. .

    .

    .

    , .

    5.2.7. .

    ,

    ,

    . , ,

    .

    .

  • 38

    5.3. .

    ,

    , ,

    ,

    . [14],

    - 1-2 .

    [15], ,

    100 ,

    3 .

    . 9 ( www.kazatomprom.kz).

    ,

    , ,

    ,

    . [16],

    - 1-2 .

    [17], ,

    100 ,

  • 39

    3 .

    .. [18] ,

    80 , 30 .

    1:600 1:1000. ,

    90-

    , ( ),

    7,4 /.

    , -

    ,

    .

    .

    .

    , .

    .

    100:1. 3000

    30 . , ,

    ,

    . ..,

    .

    .

    , ,

    , ,

    .

    .

    , 90% 50 70 / 3 5

    /. , 90%

    . ,

    , ,

    .

    .

  • 40

    .

    ,

    .

    .

    :

    ; ; ; ; ; .

    :

    . , ,

    ;

    . .

    ,

    , ,

    -

    . , ,

    ,

    , .

    ,

    48 ,

    .

    , ,

    .

    , ,

    .

    ,

    .

  • 41

    6. .

    . 7:

    . 7 .

    1

    .

    .

    . .

    .

    2

    .

    .

    .

    ,

    .

    .

    3

    .

    .

    ,

    ,

    ..

    4

    .

    ,

    ,

    .

    , ,

    .

    .

  • 42

    , , ,

    .

    ,

    .

    .

    6.1. .

    MS Excel

    , .

    . ,

    .

    -

    . ,

    , ,

    ,

    , .

    (

    , , ..)

    ,

    , .

    . 8 .

    1 300 3/ 2 0,9 /3

    3 90% 4 6 /3

    ,

    .

  • 43

    . , ,

    5

    15 /. ,

    . ,

    , .

    0,8 1,0 /.

    ,

    90%.

    6

    .

    ,

    . ,

    . .

    ,

    .

    6.1.1. .

    . 9 .

    . 9 .

    , $

    1 - 92 400

    2 (10%) 27 720

    2 6 000

    3 1 000

    4 10 000

    5 4 000

    6 20 000

    7 150 000

    8 (10%) 171 479

    : 482 599

  • 44

    ,

    ,

    .

    ,

    . ,

    ,

    , ..

    6.1.2. .

    , . 10,

    , , ,

    .

    . 10 .

    , $ /

    1 36,57 2

    30,76

    3 7,35 4 0,87 5 1,81 6 11,89 (10%) 3,57

    7 0,24 : 93,05

    . 10:

    1.

    .

    . ,

    . ,

    . ,

    . ,

    127,2 .

  • 45

    2.

    , ,

    ,

    .

    , , 10%

    . ,

    .

    , 10%,

    24 48 , 1000

    .

    3. ,

    25% .

    ,

    .

    4. ,

    .

    .

    5. ,

    ,

    . ,

    .

    .

    6.1.3. .

    . 11 .

    $ / 650 3 479 , $ 2 261 249

    ,

    2003 2004 790 840 .

  • 46

    650 ,

    140 190

    .

    :

    1.

    .

    2. ,

    .

    3. .

    4. ..

    , .

    6.1.4. .

    . ,

    ,

    .

    .

    . 12 .

    , $

    1 (, ..) 600000

    2 1 070 197

    : 1 670 197

    ,

    , , .

    ,

    .

  • 47

    6.2. .

    , ,

    ,

    ,

    .

    . 13 .

    , , $ 1 670 197

    , % 10

    , % 10

    , % 30

    , % 1

    , % 5

    , % 10

    , 5

    , 1

    , .

    ,

    .

    , 5- Treasury Notes 3,7% .

    6,3%

    .

    ,

    .

    . , ,

    .

  • 48

    . 14 .

    , 0 1 2 3 4 5

    1

    1,670,197 0 0 0 0 0

    - .. 1,070,197

    ( ) 1,670,197 1,498,718 1,327,239 1,155,760 984,281 812,802

    - .. 1,070,197 963,178 866,860 780,174 702,156 631,941

    2 ( ) $ 2,261,249 2,261,249 2,261,249 2,261,249 2,261,249

    3,479 3,479 3,479 3,479 3,479

    .

    ,

    .

    . 15 .

    1 2 3 4 5

    3 -323,716 -323,716 -323,716 -323,716 -323,716

    :

    -127,207 -127,207 -127,207 -127,207 -127,207

    -107,020 -107,020 -107,020 -107,020 -107,020

    -25,580 -25,580 -25,580 -25,580 -25,580 -3,019 -3,019 -3,019 -3,019 -3,019 -6,284 -6,284 -6,284 -6,284 -6,284 -41,376 -41,376 -41,376 -41,376 -41,376 -12,413 -12,413 -12,413 -12,413 -12,413

    -818 -818 -818 -818 -818

  • 49

    . 16 .

    1 2 3 4 5 4 -482,599 -482,599 -482,599 -482,599 -482,599

    :

    - -92,400 -92,400 -92,400 -92,400 -92,400

    -27,720 -27,720 -27,720 -27,720 -27,720

    -6,000 -6,000 -6,000 -6,000 -6,000

    -1,000 -1,000 -1,000 -1,000 -1,000 -10,000 -10,000 -10,000 -10,000 -10,000 -4,000 -4,000 -4,000 -4,000 -4,000 -20,000 -20,000 -20,000 -20,000 -20,000 -150,000 -150,000 -150,000 -150,000 -150,000 (10%) -171,479 -171,479 -171,479 -171,479 -171,479

    -311,120 -311,120 -311,120 -311,120 -311,120

    , ,

    ,

    .

    , .

    .

    / .

    . 17 . 1 2 3 4 5

    , $ -14,987 -13,272 -11,558 -9,843 -8,128 , $ -113,062 -113,062 -113,062 -113,062 -113,062

    5 , $ 1,326,884 1,328,598 1,330,313 1,332,028 1,333,743 , $ -398,065 -398,579 -399,094 -399,608 -400,123 6 ( ) , $ -526,115 -524,914 -523,714 -522,514 -521,313 7 , $ 928,818 930,019 931,219 932,420 933,620

  • 50

    . 18 .

    0 1 2 3 4 5

    8

    1,670,197 2,261,249 2,261,249 2,261,249 2,261,249 3,074,051

    1,670,197 0 0 0 0 0

    2,261,249 2,261,249 2,261,249 2,261,249 2,261,249

    .

    0 0 0 0 812,802

    -1,670,197 -1,160,951 -1,159,751 -1,158,550 -1,157,350 -1,156,150

    -1,670,197 0 0 0 0 0

    -323,716 -323,716 -323,716 -323,716 -323,716

    ( .)

    -311,120 -311,120 -311,120 -311,120 -311,120

    -526,115 -524,914 -523,714 -522,514 -521,313

    ()

    0 1,100,297 1,101,498 1,102,698 1,103,899 1,917,901

    -1,670,197 1,100,297 1,101,498 1,102,698 1,103,899 1,917,901

    -1,670,197 1,000,270 910,329 828,473 753,978 1,190,866

    ,

    .

    . 19 .

    0 1 2 3 4 5

    , $ -1,670,197 1,000,270 910,329 828,473 753,978 1,190,866

    , $

    -1,670,197 -669,927 240,402 1,068,875 1,822,853 3,013,719

  • 51

    PP (Payb

    :

    ack Period) , ;

    , $ ;

    , , .. .

    .

    . 20 ,

    1 2

    CF

    NCAPEXPP N

    ii

    ,

    1=

    =

    CAPEX (Capital Expenditure)

    CFi (Cash Flow) i-

    ;

    N

    1,78

    .

    NPV, $ 3,013,719 2,509,032

    IRR, % 63 60

    , $ 556 556

    , / 558 558

    , , $ 363,100 363,100

    , $ (%) 1,898,147 (83,9) 1,898,147 (83,9)

    , % 86 86

    , % 59 59

    , % 41 41

    (Return On Equity), % 1 180 50

    1 . 20 ,

    ,

    , , ,

    :

    ,

    2 . ,

    , ,

    1.

  • 52

    NPV , ,

    .

    IRR ,

    .

    83,9%, .

  • 53

    7. .

    ,

    .

    ,

    , ,

    .

    ,

    / - ,

    .

    ,

    . ,

    ,

    , [19, 20, 21, 22].

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    [23].

    .

    -

    Risk Analyzer Macro Systems,

    add-in MS Excel.

    ,

    , ()

    . ,

    , ,

  • 54

    .

    -

    ,

    .

    , , .

    . 21 -

    ,

    .

    .

    .

    .

    -

    .

    (NPV). .

    . 11

    NPV.

    : NPV, IRR

    . 10 - .

  • 55

    NPV

    6%.

    . 12 , ()

    . , NPV 3 013

    719 $ . , ,

    NPV, ,

    .

    . 21 .

    1 , 3/ 200 400

    2 , /3

    0,3 3

    0.000 0.500 1.000 1.500 2.000

    50%

  • 56

    0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%

    100%

    -1,

    159,

    099

    268

    ,427

    1,6

    95,9

    53

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    23,4

    79

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    51,0

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    78,5

    30

    7,4

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    56

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    33,5

    82

    10,

    261,

    108

    NPV, $

    . 12 NPV.

    -1,

    159,

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    -1,1

    59,0

    99

    -445

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    ,336

    268,

    427

    268,

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    982

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    1,6

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    3

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    09,7

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    2,40

    9,71

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    3,1

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    79

    3,12

    3,47

    9

    3,8

    37,2

    41

    3,83

    7,24

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    64,7

    67

    5,26

    4,76

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    78,5

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    5,97

    8,53

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    6,6

    92,2

    93

    6,69

    2,29

    3

    7,4

    06,0

    56

    7,40

    6,05

    6

    8,1

    19,8

    19

    8,11

    9,81

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    33,5

    82

    8,83

    3,58

    2

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    45

    9,54

    7,34

    5

    10,

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    >10,

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    108

    0.0%

    2.0%

    4.0%

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    8.0%

    10.0%

    12.0%

    14.0%

    16.0%

    18.0%

    NPV ("-"), $

    . 11 NPV.

  • 57

    .

    NPV 2 506 351 $. ,

    NPV

    , .

    ,

    NPV.

    7.1.1. .

    , , - ,

    ,

    ,

    . ,

    ,

    .

    . 11 . 13.

    .

    NPV,

    :

    NPVpel ii , =

    el (expected losses) , $ ;

    pi (probability) , ;

    NPVi- - NPV, .

    16392

    $ .

    . , ,

    .

  • 58

    0.02% 0.04% 0.04%0.08% 0.10%

    0.14%

    0.20% 0.22%

    0.42%

    0.30%

    0.38%

    0.24%

    0.64%

    0.50%

    0.70%

    0.90%

    0.64%

    0.80%

    0.72%

    0.00%

    0.10%

    0.20%

    0.30%

    0.40%

    0.50%

    0.60%

    0.70%

    0.80%

    0.90%

    1.00%

    -1

    ,084,0

    99

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    -9

    34,09

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    -8

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    09,09

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    -6

    34,09

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    59,09

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    -4

    84,09

    9

    -4

    09,09

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    -3

    34,09

    9

    -2

    59,09

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    9

    -3

    4,099

    40

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    5,901

    19

    0,901

    NPV

    . 13 NPV.

    7.1.2. .

    ( ) - ,

    NPV :

    eleg

    elelr %,100+=

    elr (expected loss ratio) , %;

    el (expected losses) - , $ ;

    eg (expected gain) , $ .

  • 59

    , ,

    NPV.

    NPV.

    2 506 351 $ . ,

    0,7%.

    7.1.3. .

    :

    nmNPVP %,100)( =

    P(NPV-) , %;

    m () NPV;

    n .

    m 246

    5000. ,

    5%.

    7.1.4. .

    (. . 14, . 16 . 15).

    ,

    .

    ,

    .

  • 60

    .

    .

    , 10% 90%,

    10/90 90/10. . 22 ,

    .

    .

    . 22 .

    .

    10/90

    90/10

    .

    . , /3 0.900 0.300 0.566 0.900 1.229 1.500

    , 3/ 300.00 100.00 176.86 266.67 344.63 400.00

    . , $ 600,000 400,000 464,524 577,577 713,739 1,000,000

    0.05 0.01 0.02 0.06 0.09 0.10

    , $/ 650.00 500.00 572.41 651.41 730.42 1000.00

    . 14 ,

    NPV :

    1. ;

    2. ;

    3. ;

    4. ;

    5. .

    NPV

    .

    . ,

  • 61

    , ..

    .

    IRR (. 16)

    :

    1. ;

    2. ;

    3. ;

    4. .

    5. .

    , IRR

    .

    , ,

    , . ,

    10/90 IRR

    .

    989,395

    4,958,964

    1,176,571

    3,668,872

    2,333,240

    3,718,937

    3,223,000

    2,736,928

    0

    1,000,000

    2,000,000

    3,000,000

    4,000,000

    5,000,000

    6,000,000

    NPV

    -

    -

    . 14 NPV .

  • 62

    28%

    94%

    40%

    68%

    51%

    75%69%

    59%

    66%

    58%

    0%

    10%

    20%

    30%

    40%

    50%

    60%

    70%

    80%

    90%

    100%

    IRR

    -

    -

    . 16 IRR .

    . 15 .

    3.13

    1.26

    2.56

    1.66

    2.09

    1.551.671.88

    1.711.89

    0.00

    0.50

    1.00

    1.50

    2.00

    2.50

    3.00

    3.50

    ,

    -

    -

    . 15 .

  • 63

    , IRR.

    , , ,

    , , .

    7.2. -.

    ,

    .

    , ,

    ,

    .

    0

    5

    10

    15

    20

    25

    0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.9 1.0 1.1 1.2 1.3 1.4 1.5 , /3

    ,

    -2,000,000

    -1,000,000

    0

    1,000,000

    2,000,000

    3,000,000

    4,000,000

    5,000,000

    6,000,000

    7,000,000

    NP

    V, $

    NPV

    . 17 () NPV .

    . 17 , NPV

    . . 18

  • 64

    1.5

    1.6

    1.7

    1.8

    1.9

    2.0

    2.1

    2.2

    2.3

    2.4

    200 225 250 275 300 325 350 375 400

    , 3/

    ,

    1,000,000

    1,500,000

    2,000,000

    2,500,000

    3,000,000

    3,500,000

    4,000,000

    4,500,000

    5,000,000

    NP

    V, $

    NPV

    . 18 () NPV

    NPV

    .

    ,

    NPV

    ,

    . ,

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    . ..,

    . ,

    , .

  • 65

    7.3. .

    7.3.1. .

    ,

    . , - ,

    , ,

    -.

    -

    , .

    .

    7.3.2. .

    . 23 .

    - (, , ..)

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    ( , , ..)

  • 66

    /

    ,

    . .

    7.3.3. .

    ,

    .

    .

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    . ,

    ,

    .

    . 24 .

    -

    - --

    7.3.4. .

    , .

    ,

    .

    .

    ,

    , - .

  • 67

    7.3.5.

    .

    .

    ,

    , , ,

    .

    .

    , 1

    , 0, , - .

    ,

    .

    .

    . 25 .

    -

    0.2 0.2 0.04

    0.4 0.3 0.12

    0.1 0.7 0.07

    0.2 0.5 0.1

    0.05 0.9 0.045

    0.2 0.6 0.12

    0.4 0.8 0.32

    0.5 0.7 0.35

    0.3 0.8 0.24

    0.4 0.4 0.16

    0.7 0.3 0.21

    0.3 0.3 0.09

    0.6 0.3 0.18

  • 68

    .

    0.16 ( ).

    0.0%

    2.0%

    4.0%

    6.0%

    8.0%

    10.0%

    12.0%

    14.0%

    16.0%

    18.0%

  • 69

    ,

    .

    7.3.6. .

    . 26

    .

    . 26 . -

    --

    .

    . .

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    .

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  • 70

    7.3.7. /

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  • 71

    .

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  • 72

    8. .

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    .

    99,9% 2004 1300 $.

    .

    .

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  • 73

    9. .

    .

    .

    -

    .

    , .

    . 27 , .

    5

    3/ 300

    $ 2 261 249

    $ 1 670 197

    NPV $ 3,013,719

    IRR % 63

    $ 556

    / 558

    , $ 363,100

    $ (%)

    1,898,147 (83,9)

    % 86

    % 59

    % 41

    (Return On Equity) % 180

  • 74

    ,

    .

    .

    .

    .

    ,

    .

    6 12 .

  • 75

    :

    1 . Andrew Brown , US said to lead aerospace production, consumption, Roskill Co.

    London American Metal Market, April 20, 1999 .

    2 . N. P. Lyakishev, Recent trends in the Development of Structural Materials. - Baikov

    Institute of Metallurgy and Materials Science (IMET), Russian Academy of

    Sciences, Russia, 2004.

    3 . T. Stundza, Demand keeps FLYING HIGH. - Purchasing Magazine OnLine,

    07/15/1999.

    4 . .

    5 . .

    6 . .

    7 . World Energy Report 2003. RWE Aktiengesellschaft, Opernplatz 1, 45128 Essen,

    www.rwe.com.

    8 . Michael J. Magyar, RHENIUM, - U.S. Geological Survey Publications, 2003.

    9 . Lipmann Walton & Co. - Rhenium: Financial Times Executive Commodity Report,

    2000.

    10 . PM2 TEC 2001. Metal Powder

    Industries Federation, Princeton, N.J.

    11 . "New" Materials Developments Defy Traditional Ideas - JOM May 1, 2004 (C) 2004

    JOM. via ProQuest Information and Learning Company.

    12 . . .3. .

    .., - .: , 1976.

    13 . "New" Materials Developments Defy Traditional Ideas - JOM May 1, 2004 (C) 2004

    JOM. via ProQuest Information and Learning Company.

    14 . .., .. .

    -

    . - II- -

    , . 144-

    147, . , 10-13.07.2002

    15 . .., .., .., ..

    . -

    II- -

  • 76

    , . 154-157, .

    , 10-13.07.2002

    16 . .., .. .

    -

    . - II- -

    , . 144-

    147, . , 10-13.07.2002

    17 . .., .., .., ..,

    .

    II- -

    , . 154-157, .

    , 10-13.07.2002

    18 . ..,

    -

    . II- -

    , . 166-

    172, . , 10-13.07.2002.

    19 . A Guide to the PROJECT MANAGEMENT BODY of KNOWLEDGE (PMBOK

    Guide), 2000 Edition.

    20 . .., .. . , - .: -

    -, 2004, 495 .

    21 . Savvakis C. Savvides, Risk Analysis in Investment Appraisal. Published in Project

    Appraisal, v.9, N1, p. 3 18, March 1994.

    22 . .., ..: : , - .: -

    -, 2004, - 272.

    23 . ... , - .: - , 2002.

    +7-095-363-50562005-06-06T17:25:57+0400Moscow, Russia I am the author of this document