Потепление климата – новая проблема общественного здоровья приполярного

населения

Climate warming – new problem of subpolar public health in Russia

Профессор Борис РевичProf. Boris Revich

Аномалии осредненной по территории России среднегодовой температуры воздуха за период 1936-2005 гг.

(www.meteorf.ru/klimat05)

= 0.14oC/10 лет

-2,0

-1,5

-1,0

-0,5

0,0

0,5

1,0

1,5

2,0

2,5

19

36

19

40

19

44

19

48

19

52

19

56

19

60

19

64

19

68

19

72

19

76

19

80

19

84

19

88

19

92

19

96

20

00

20

04

2005

T (oC)

T –Yakutsk-1950-1995

-12

-11

-10

-9

-8

-7

-6

-5

-4

1950 1953 1956 1959 1962 1965 1968 1971 1974 1977 1980 1983 1986 1989 1992 1995

Ожидаемые к середине ХХI века изменения средней годовой температуры воздуха для основных регионов России

Expected by 2050 Increments of Annual Average Temperatures in Russian Regions

Национальный доклад по проблемам изменения климата Минэкономразвития России, National Report on Climate Change, Ministry

of Economic Development, 2003

РегионRegion

Прогноз увеличения среднегодовой температуры ºС

Temperature Increase, ºС

Центральный / Central 0.5-1.0

Северо-Западный /North-West 0-1

Север ЕТС/European North 2-3

Арктическое Побережье/Arctic Coast

2-3

Западная Сибирь/West Siberia 3-4

Якутия/Yakutia 2-3

Дальний Восток/Far East 1-2

Изменение климата и здоровье в северной России – инфекционные заболевания

Изменение климата и здоровье в северной России – инфекционные заболевания

!!!Геморрагические лихорадки– движение на север

!! Деградация территорий вечной мерзлоты – проблемы с инженерными коммуникациями

Сокращение площадей на 12-15%, перемещение границы на 160-200 км севернее

ОКИ , Якутия, 2001, брюшной тиф

!! Паразитозы – дирофиляриатоз – движение на север

! Псевдотуберкулез, листериоз

!? Клещевой энцефалит, туляремия

Потепление климата- инфекционные заболевания

Лихорадка Западного Нила – в 1999 году – вспышки заболевания среди жителей Волгоградской и Астраханской областей, Краснодарского края.

Лихорадка Западного Нила в России в 1999 г.

Волгоград (> 500 случаев, 38 смертей); Астрахань (> 90 случаев, 5 смертей);Краснодар (> 40 случаев, 3 смерти).

Астрахань

Волгоград

Краснодар

0

100

200

300

400

500

1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002Чи

сло

сл

учае

в Л

ЗН

>5>35

>500

32 15 14

А.Е.Платонов, ЦНИИ эпидемиологии МЗ РФ

 Более раннее начало периода нападения клещей на людей (Северо-Запад России) Рост заболеваемости клещевым энцефалитом - в год заболевает 5-10 тыс. человек Расширение ареала за счет Северо-Западного и Приволжского регионов. Высокие показатели заболеваемости в Сибири и на Дальнем Востоке Ixodes Persulcatus – сдвиг теплового барьерав Якутии _!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Клещевой энцефалит

Геморрагические лихорадки

Лихорадка Крым-Конго. Южные регионы России,

летальные исходы Омская геморрагическая

лихорадка - Природные очаги в Западной Сибири и Казахстане.Тенденция к ее возвращению и

распространению на север.

Особо опасные инфекции

Сибирская язва: Большое количество стационарно неблагополучных пунктов по сибирской язве.Возбудитель сибирской язвы в виде спор может десятки лет находиться в почве. В случае потепления в зонах вечной мерзлоты могут создаться благоприятные условия для вегетации бактерий с высоко вероятным инфицированием восприимчивых животных и опосредованно заражением людей.

Наводнения на севере России1998, май Вологодская область

г. В. УстюгЭвакуировано 10 тыс. человек

1998, май Ленск, Якутия172 нас. пункта

В зоне затопления 475 тыс. человек, Эвакуировано 50 тыс. человек,t днем +1 +3 °С ночь -10 -12 °С, снег

2001, май

8/06/2006

Ленск, Якутия172 нас. пункта

ТаймырОлекминск, Якутия

Эвакуация 23 тыс. человек,больницы

?

T T andand Public Health Public Health:: Arctic and Subarctic cities, Arctic and Subarctic cities,

7 - more 100 thous. peoples7 - more 100 thous. peoples13 - more 20 thous.peoples13 - more 20 thous.peoplesUrban population -2 2000thUrban population -2 2000th

Project: Climate, Air Pollution and Mortality in Moscow in 2000-2005• Center of Demography and Human

Ecology of Institute of Forecasting, Russian Academy of Science, Moscow

• Environmental Monitoring• Meteorology Observatory of

Moscow State University• Environmental Defense (USA)

Variations and Trend of Annual Average Temperatures in Moscow in 1900-2000

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

819

00

1905

1910

1915

1920

1925

1930

1935

1940

1945

1950

1955

1960

1965

1970

1975

1980

1985

1990

1995

2000

Т, С

Source: Moscow Environment and Climate Reference Book, 2003, vol.1, 173.

Annual Average Temperature in Moscow (MSU Meteo Observatory) in 1954-2001 and ЕСНАМ4

model forecast till 2050 [Sherstukov, 2005]

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

1954

1959

1966

1974

1979

1986

1994

1999

2006

2014

2019

2026

2034

2039

2046

Т, С

Summer vs. winter concentrations of РМ10, NO2 and O3 in 2000-05, ug/m3

(MosEcoMonitoring data)

Winter Summer

РМ 10 30,7 33,0

NO2 42,0 35,4

О3 19,3 26,2

Regression Equation of Daily Pollution on Daily Temperature

Pollution = Const +βTlag + ε

Summer (2003 – 2005)

Regression coefficients of proportionality between NO2 and T with different time lags in days

0,0

0,2

0,4

0,6

0,8

1,0

1,2

1,4

1,6

1,8

-8,0 -6,0 -4,0 -2,0 0,0 2,0 4,0 6,0

lag between T and Concentration, days

Slo

pe fa

ctor

, ug/

m3/

degr

ee C

Summer (2003 – 2005) Regression coefficients of proportionality between

PM10 and T with different time lags in days

0,00

0,20

0,40

0,60

0,80

1,00

1,20

1,40

1,60

1,80

2,00

-8,0 -6,0 -4,0 -2,0 0,0 2,0 4,0 6,0

Lag, days

Slo

pe

fact

or,

ug

/m3/

deg

ree

C

Summer

Т and Concentrations wave in August of 2004

0,0

10,0

20,0

30,0

40,0

50,0

60,0

70,0

17.08.04 19.08.04 21.08.04 23.08.04 25.08.04

T

NO2

O3

PM10

Winter (2003 – 2005) Regression coefficients of proportionality

between PM10 and T with different time lags

PM10

-1,80

-1,60

-1,40

-1,20

-1,00

-0,80

-0,60

-0,40

-0,20

0,00

-8 -6 -4 -2 0 2 4 6 8

Lag, days

Slo

pe

fa

cto

r, u

g/m

3/d

eg

ree

C

Number of days with extremely high (in summer) and extremely low (in winter)

daily average temperatures in 2000 – 2005 Threshold for temperature anomaly

+ 20.2 + 21.8 + 20.1 - 13.2 - 16.4 - 14.7

June July August December January February

2000 5 2 0 0 3 0

2001 4 20 7 10 0 4

2002 8 21 8 12 3 0

2003 0 12 4 0 6 3

2004 3 4 14 0 0 2

2005 3 7 8 0 0 0

2006 10 18

• Summer Heat Waves: 2001 and 2002.

• Energy system failure, “Black-out” of May 25th, 2005

Heat wave of July’01 and consequent increase of daily mortality from all causes, all ages

-100,0

-50,0

0,0

50,0

100,0

150,0

200,0

28 июн 8 июл 18 июл 28 июл 7 авг 17 авг 27 авг 6 сен

T above average Mortality above background

Moscow, Summer’02

• Extremely high temperatures: 16 days with daily Тmax above 29 °С, accompanied with smog situation – 27 days with haze, high level of air pollution

• Low visibility on highways

• Airports in Moscow Region closed for weather

• Smell of smoke, “empyreuma”

• Eye irritation, breathing problems, headache, etc.

•Total mortality of males:Total mortality of males:

Yt = 146 + (1.18±0.45)T0

•IHD of males:

Yt = 33 + (0.51±0.19)T0

Results of regression analysis – T-related increase in daily mortality

Results of regression analysis – temperature-related increase in daily

mortality

• Cerebrovascular diseases of males:

Yt = 23.6 + (0.6±0.2)T0 ,

Yt = 14.7 + (0.98±0.19)T-1

(T-1 –temperature on previous day )

• Mortality of males from external causes: Yt = 18.9 + (0.40±0.19)T0

Health consequences of heat wave in July’02

632 additional deaths

as direct result of heat wave

Moscow. May 25th, 2005

• Warm weather• Accident at thermal power station• Sharp increase of PM10

concentrations: from average value of 33 ug/m3 to extreme of 71 ug/m3, NO2 concentrations within the norm (MosEcoMonitoring data)

Cold wave – January’06

Age group 75 +:

•142 additional deaths from all causes ( except external),

•including 61 additional deaths from IHD

Т, air pollution and mortality in Moscow in 2002 – 2005

4 causes included in the analysis: All cases, except external IHD (I20-25)Cerebrovascular diseases (myocardial infarction,

cerebrovascular accidents) (I 60-69)Chronic lower respiratory diseases (bronchitis,

emphysema, asthma, asthmatic status) (J40-47)

Seasonal variations of mortality from all causes (except external) in age group 75+. 30-day moving average for 2000 – 2004

0,0

20,0

40,0

60,0

80,0

100,0

120,0

140,0

160,0

180,0

200,0

24.07.98 06.12.99 19.04.01 01.09.02 14.01.04 28.05.05

dail

y m

ort

ali

ty

summer 2000

summer 2001

summer 2002

summer 2003

summer 2004

Winter

2000

Winter

2001

Winter

2002

Winter 2003 Winter 2004

Monthly average mortality from ischaemia in age group 75+ (2002-2005)

50

55

60

65

70

75

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12

month

avg.

dai

ly v

alue

Т-mortality curve for Moscow and “T of maximum comfort”

(2000-2005)

3020100-10-20-30

T

480,0

450,0

420,0

390,0

360,0

330,0

Mort

Daily Mortality-T relationship in Moscow, 2000 - 2005

• Moscow: linear decrease from -20 to +19 °С

[Revich, Golub, Shaposhnikov, 2006]

• London: linear decrease from 0 to +150C[Keatinge, Donaldson, 2001]

Results of regression analysis

Relative risks were calculated for:

• 8 causes of mortality

(4 causes and 2 age groups)

• and time lags

0, 1, …, 6 days

… and risk factors:• Temperature increase

above maximum comfort (+19ºС)

• Temperature decrease below maximum comfort (+19ºС)

• Increments of daily average concentrations of PM10,, NO2, and O3 by 10 µg/м3

Examples of relative risks of variation of daily average temperature by 1ºC

Cases RR of summer heat (T>20ºC)

RR of cold temperatures

(T<19ºC)

All causes (except

external), all ages

2.8%

(2.0%; 3.6%)

-0.44%

(-0.40%; -0.48%)

Chronic lower respiratory

diseases, all ages

8.7%

(0.7%; 16.7%)

-1.31%

(-1.75%; -0.87%)

Primer of mortality/temperature depencency with different time lags Cerebrovascular mortality, age group 75+

0123456

-8 -6 -4 -2 0

time lag, days before death

rela

tive

ris

k, %

/C

Relative risks of mortality per 10 µg/м3 increase of daily average concentration of pollutant

Causes Age group PM10 NO2 O3

All (except external)

All ages 0.48 - 0.57

75+ 0.96 0.39 -

Chronic lower

respiratory

All ages - - 4.9

75+ - - 7.8

IHD All ages 0.76 - 1.10

75+ 1.11 - -

Cerebrovascular

All ages 0.94 0.66 1.55

75+ 1.39 1.02 1.23

Low Temperatures as Health Risk Factor in Low Temperatures as Health Risk Factor in RussiaRussia

• North territories make about 64% of total area of the RF

• Cold discomfort• Cardio-vascular system• Respiratory tract• Mortality from frostbite • In Russia, about 1,500 people die from frostbite every

year, predominantly males over 20y.o. • There are no deaths cased by frostbite registered in

European countries with cold climate (Norway, Denmark, Sweden, Finland, Iceland)

Climate Change and Human Health in Russian Arctic Region

• Infections diseases - Infrastructure break-downs in cryolite zone !

• Emergence and new infectious diseases and parasitosis of sea mammals and humans ?

• Change in food – dietary problems ?• Changes in air quality - ?• Problems with traditional hunting of

northern aborigines - !

WWF-Russia climate programme

Observations of Climate Change Made by Indigenous Inhabitants of the Coastal

Regions of Chukotka

Majority of people survived have noticed climate changes

Negative 11%

Affirmative 89%

Has noticed significant climate changes.Ice breaks up a month earlier than it did

before. Old ice no longer exists.

Walrus stay longer at haul out sites. Birds depart later.

Vladilen Ivanovich Kavry39 years of ageChukchiMarine Mammal Hunter

Required research of climate/health in Russia

• Infectious diseases and T relationship

• Mortality and T relationship in different climate zones (North, Siberia, Far East)

• Climate warming and traditional crafts in Arctic

• National Climate Health Impact Assessment

• Scientific Report about Climate change and health at Russian Arctic

• National Climate Health Action Plan

(as French “Plan Canicule”, UK, Germany, Spain, Finland, etc.)

The following documents should be prepared:

Спасибо за вниманиеСпасибо за внимание !!

Thank you for attention!!Thank you for attention!!