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惑星気候学 -- 簡単理論から大気大循環モデルまで --. 石渡正樹(北大・理). はじめに. 気候いろいろ. 多様な気候 : 惑星 , 昔の地球 , 系外惑星 , … それらを大雑把で良いから同じ土俵で考えたい 地球の気候の安定性 : 「地球らしい気候が出現する条件は ? 」. 金星の図 : http://www.solarviews.com/browse/venus/venusmar.jpg 地球の図 : http://www.solarviews.com/raw/earth/earthx.jpg - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
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-- --
: , , , : ? : http://www.solarviews.com/browse/venus/venusmar.jpg : http://www.solarviews.com/raw/earth/earthx.jpg : http://www.solarviews.com/raw/mars/mars060.jpg
? = , , , ?
-GCM
Matsui and Abe (1986)Abe and Matsui (1988)
T T^4
=
: () A :.
1999
1
1 ( 1 ), TaTg
, 1999
1999
Komabayashi (1969), Ingersoll (1969)().?.
.
1 Nakajima et al (1992) 1 , : ( =0.01 Kg/m^2)
1 , ., .
1 Nakajima et al (1992)
..
, . .
Simpson (1927)Gold (1964)Komabayashi (1967)Ingersoll (1969) Abe and Matsui (1988) Kasting (1988)Nakajima et al. (1992)Sugiyama et al. (2005)
Abe and Matsui (1988)
3
1 Nakajima et al. (1992) ( =0.01 Kg/m^2)
Nakajima et al 3 1. ?, 2.?1 ?3. ?
0. ?
, : () : , (Manabe et al, 1967) : Mellor and Yamada (1974) : swamp ocean ( 0) : : T21, L32 (64x32x32 ) :
. : 280 K : 1000 2000
1600 W/m^2 . -
OLR
1d vs 3d)11 3
1 1 . Tg-OLR
S1380S1570
S=1380 ()S=1570()
S=1800
(S1800)S1380S1800
: S=1600 W/m^2 1300 W/m^2 : 1280 W/m^2 :.S1600 S1300S1600 S1280
.1300 / 4.0 = 325 W/m^2 .
3 . 1 .?
( 7 )!?Hoffman et al. (1998)Budyko (1969), Sellers (1969), Ikeda and Tajika (1999)
Weatherald and Manabe (1975) : Jenkins and Smith (1999)Hyde, Crowley, Baum and Peltier (2000)Baum and Crowley (2001)Poulsen, Pierrehumbert and Jacob (2001) :
(2000)
0 :
1 .Budyko (1969), Sellers (1969) 1 . () - ()
Budyko
Budyko () = a + bT
.Budyko GCM .S=1380 W/m**2 GCM .0TK)0.5 TK)
(Budyko )
()--
2
.
3
(Large ice cap instability)(small ice cap instability)
Budyko 3large ice cap instability ??..EBM GCM Snowball Earth ., EBM ., .
GCM Snowball Earth Weatherald and Manabe (1975)Baum and Crowley (2001)+CO2
:AGCM5.3, : () : , (Manabe et al, 1967) : Mellor and Yamada (1974) : T21, L32 : swamp ocean ( 0) -> 0 -> 0.5 263K
280 K : 5000 60000
EBM GCM GCM EBM
GCM EBM
20 large ice-cap instability GCM
, S=1295 W/m^2 S1300 -> S1280 -> S1260 .
S=1280S=1260
20S1300 -> S1280 -> S1260 S1260
small ice-cap instability ?GCMEBMS1560S1380S1260
S=1710 W/m^2 S=1720 W/m^2 .?
S1600 S1700
Lee and North (1995) 20
PIA00114.tif