人民幣國際化 ─現況與展望

*

*

*

*

()()()()()()

(economies of scale)(network externalities)CCCC*

*:(Social capital) (Cultural goods)

()

*

* : %: A. Kamps, The Euro as Invoicing Currency in International Trade (Frankfurt am Main: European Central Bank, 2006).

27.953.76.1--37.549.54.1--64.87.9--19.370.35.5--12489.638.468.74.524.6--------90.32 70------ --------

()(Bank for International SettlementsBIS)201387%33.4%23.0%11.8%8.6%5.2%4.6%2.2%95%

*

: %*2013 200%Bank for International Settlements, Triennial Central Bank Survey of Foreign Exchange and Derivatives Market Activity (Basel: BIS, 2013).

200420072010201388.786.384.987.037.237.039.133.420.316.519.023.016.915.012.911.86.16.87.68.65.56.76.45.24.24.25.34.61.11.31.32.50.10.50.92.21.11.91.62.0

(International Monetary Fund) 201361.2%24.4%3.9%4%0.20%()2.9%

* ()

* : %: IMF, Currency Composition of Official Foreign Exchange Reserves Database.

200267.123.84.352.810.411.55200365.925.23.942.770.231.97200465.924.83.833.370.171.88200566.924.13.583.600.151.72200665.525.13.084.380.171.80200764.126.32.924.680.161.84200864.126.43.134.010.142.21200962.027.72.904.250.123.05201061.826.03.663.930.134.44201162.225.03.533.830.115.29201261.923.93.904.000.136.10201361.224.43.904.000.202.90

*

*

*

2013*20134 2013

(A) (B) (A/B)4.6325.8317.92%1.8813.7213.70%2.7511.1122.71%

* ()

: ()*:

20045,4176,71012,1270.31%200510,62011,96622,5860.56%200612,22811,17523,4030.49%200722,53910,86133,4000.57%200838,11817,94256,0600.93%200940,66222,05662,7180.98%2010117,573197,365314,9384.59%2011176,398412,132588,5297.75%2012123,542479,493602,9967.27%2013151,055709,741860,47212.05%

* ()

2008201324

*

201252.34%23.60%4.56%3.98%0.87%(SWIFTSociety for Worldwide Interbank Financial Telecommunication)201441.62%740.15%31.78%9.24%2.29%

* ()

*

*()

:

*()

*() 20134.453.8111.2%15.8%4.9%5.9%

2013*

2013*

*()

*()

* ()

19800.77%201310.04% 2013*

*

Trade Competitiveness Index TCI

TCIi i XiiMiiTCIiiTCIi*

Standard International Trade ClassificationSITC100123456789045968579*

:1980-2013*

SITC0

SITC1

SITC2

SITC3

SITC4

SITC5

SITC6

SITC7

SITC8

SITC9

1980

0.13

0.01

0.37

-0.35

0.91

-0.60

-0.18

-0.44

-0.02

-0.72

0.68

-0.23

1985

0.45

0.42

-0.32

-0.10

0.95

0.05

-0.46

-0.53

-0.45

-0.91

0.29

0.16

1990

0.23

0.33

0.37

-0.07

0.61

-0.72

0.03

-0.28

0.17

-0.50

0.72

0.13

1995

-0.06

0.24

0.55

-0.40

0.02

-0.70

0.08

-0.31

0.06

-0.25

0.74

-0.98

2000

-0.29

0.44

0.34

-0.64

-0.45

-0.79

0.11

-0.43

0.01

-0.05

0.74

-0.76

2005

-0.50

0.41

0.20

-0.81

-0.57

-0.85

0.16

-0.37

0.23

0.10

0.52

-0.11

2010

-0.68

0.31

-0.12

-0.90

-0.75

-0.92

0.22

-0.26

0.31

0.17

0.54

-0.85

2011

-0.71

0.27

-0.24

-0.90

-0.79

-0.91

0.22

-0.22

0.36

0.18

0.56

-0.91

2012

-0.75

0.13

-0.31

-0.91

-0.84

-0.93

0.19

-0.28

0.34

0.13

0.55

-0.96

2013

-0.72

0.14

-0.27

-0.90

-0.81

-0.89

0.24

-0.23

0.42

0.19

0.61

-0.97

CEIC

*

19800.132013-0.721980-0.181990

*

2013SITC680.420.610.24 2013SITC579-0.230.19-0.977*