××גרי×‌ ל×‍שק הישר×לי ב×ביבה עול×‍×™× ×‍שברי×: ××‍ונ×

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אתגרים למשק הישראלי בסביבה עולמית משברית: תמונת המאקרו של המשק הישראלי. נובמבר 2008. ד"ר קרנית פלוג. נקודת המוצא: מצב המשק וההתפתחויות בחודשים האחרונים. שיעורי הצמיחה של התוצר המקומי 2000 – 2008*. %. * BOI Forecast. אינדיקטורים לפעילות כלכלית. רמת הפעילות במשק*. - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

Text of ××גרי×‌...

  • : " 2008

  • :

  • % 2000 2008** BOI Forecast.

  • ()

    ** .

  • ( , 2000-2008.2)%

  • 1

    31.580.259.0545.04

    25.410.259.0524.69

    21.760.259.0515.19

    -4.250.259.05-7.79

    -10.650.259.05-2.14

    -20.110.259.05-19.57

    -16.560.259.05-22.49

    -10.820.259.05-12.55

    -12.020.259.05-1.78

    -23.330.259.05-25.39

    -21.130.259.05-26.7

    -19.020.259.05-19.44

    -15.490.259.05-7.34

    -11.220.259.05-12.47

    -2.160.259.05-7.04

    3.210.259.056.31

    13.350.259.0518.11

    20.830.259.0521.02

    21.750.259.0512.05

    17.640.259.0522.17

    23.680.259.0529.74

    -21.610.259.05-22.99

    -16.870.259.05-22.61

    -21.940.259.05-18.88

    -30.950.259.05-28.34

    -18.630.259.05-19.69

    -23.850.259.05-28.74

    -21.520.259.05-18.36

    -18.20.259.05-16.17

    -18.070.259.05-19.08

    -26.850.259.05-30.06

    -6.360.259.05-3.23

    4.320.259.057.38

    2.420.259.05-0.36

    28.390.259.0525.33

    18.110.259.0521.28

    21.520.259.0522.76

    14.530.259.0512.37

    17.920.259.0516.85

    23.980.259.0525.91

    26.130.259.0527.95

    24.90.259.0522.09

    37.480.259.0537.46

    28.630.259.0529.67

    13.310.259.0513.7

    31.940.259.0530.98

    26.030.259.0526.17

    29.950.259.0530.4

    40.190.259.0538.66

    34.750.259.0536.05

    17.330.259.0517.18

    13.010.259.0513.32

    4.340.259.054.05

    0.259.05

    *

    1

    :

    ACT_TOT_NETO.QACT_TOT_NETO.Q_SA12

    1983:03:0018.34209.050.25

    1983:04:0017.2810.089.050.25

    841984:01:00-1.940.179.050.25

    1984:02:005.188.359.050.25

    1984:03:005.014.329.050.25

    1984:04:00-3.76-7.489.050.25

    851985:01:005.337.989.050.25

    1985:02:00-17.41-14.949.050.25

    1985:03:00-12.73-12.559.050.25

    1985:04:0023.0215.959.050.25

    861986:01:0012.2615.079.050.25

    1986:02:0015.1920.279.050.25

    1986:03:0022.6420.559.050.25

    1986:04:0018.3912.989.050.25

    871987:01:009.412.479.050.25

    1987:02:007.1612.159.050.25

    1987:03:0012.059.769.050.25

    1987:04:0015.379.599.050.25

    881988:01:000.613.489.050.25

    2/88-6.54-1.939.050.25

    3/88-8.57-10.49.050.25

    4/88-10.56-15.299.050.25

    891/89-6.41-2.999.050.25

    2/89-12.47-8.519.050.25

    3/8913.067.119.050.25

    4/8913.3110.179.050.25

    901/906.8211.29.050.25

    2/9010.0715.979.050.25

    3/9024.6316.059.050.25

    4/9012.1414.049.050.25

    911/91-6.330.229.050.25

    2/9139.2344.929.050.25

    3/9126.7819.019.050.25

    4/9112.149.319.050.25`

    921/9210.4716.739.050.25

    2/9218.1122.979.050.25

    3/9235.8324.179.050.25

    4/9220.8120.139.050.25

    931/9315.7522.299.050.25

    2/938.4814.159.050.25

    3/9334.9524.189.050.25

    4/9331.0229.39.050.25

    941/9413.8219.429.050.25

    2/948.1614.549.050.25

    3/9429.419.429.050.25

    4/9429.4226.949.050.25

    951/9515.0221.89.050.25

    2/9525.5732.19.050.25

    3/9545.0431.589.050.25

    4/9524.6925.419.050.25

    961/9615.1921.769.050.25

    2/96-7.79-4.259.050.25

    3/96-2.14-10.659.050.25

    4/96-19.57-20.119.050.25

    971/97-22.49-16.569.050.25

    2/97-12.55-10.829.050.25

    3/97-1.78-12.029.050.25

    4/97-25.39-23.339.050.25

    981/98-26.7-21.139.050.25

    2/98-19.44-19.029.050.25

    3/98-7.34-15.499.050.25

    4/98-12.47-11.229.050.25

    991/99-7.04-2.169.050.256.48404.41682527.605

    2/996.313.219.050.25

    3/9918.1113.359.050.25

    4/9921.0220.839.050.25

    001/0012.0521.759.050.25

    2/0022.1717.649.050.25

    3/0029.7423.689.050.25

    4/00-22.99-21.619.050.25

    011/01-22.61-16.879.050.25

    2/01-18.88-21.949.050.25

    3/01-28.34-30.959.050.25

    4/01-19.69-18.639.050.25

    021/02-28.74-23.859.050.25

    2/02-18.36-21.529.050.25

    3/02-16.17-18.29.050.25

    4/02-19.08-18.079.050.25

    031/03-30.06-26.859.050.25

    2/03-3.23-6.369.050.25

    3/037.384.329.050.25

    4/03-0.362.429.050.25

    041/0425.3328.399.050.25

    2/0421.2818.119.050.25

    3/0422.7621.529.050.25

    4/0412.3714.539.050.25

    051/0516.8517.929.050.25

    2/0525.9123.989.050.25

    3/0527.9526.139.050.25

    4/0522.0924.99.050.25

    061/0637.4637.489.050.25

    2/0629.6728.639.050.25

    3/0613.713.319.050.25

    4/0630.9831.949.050.25

    1/0726.1726.039.050.25

    2/0730.429.959.050.25

    3/0738.6640.199.050.25

    4/0736.0534.759.050.25

    1/0817.1817.339.050.25

    2/0813.3213.019.050.25

    3/084.054.349.050.25

    9.050.25

    1

    32.10.259.0525.57

    31.580.259.0545.04

    25.410.259.0524.69

    21.760.259.0515.19

    -4.250.259.05-7.79

    -10.650.259.05-2.14

    -20.110.259.05-19.57

    -16.560.259.05-22.49

    -10.820.259.05-12.55

    -12.020.259.05-1.78

    -23.330.259.05-25.39

    -21.130.259.05-26.7

    -19.020.259.05-19.44

    -15.490.259.05-7.34

    -11.220.259.05-12.47

    -2.160.259.05-7.04

    3.210.259.056.31

    13.350.259.0518.11

    20.830.259.0521.02

    21.750.259.0512.05

    17.640.259.0522.17

    23.680.259.0529.74

    -21.610.259.05-22.99

    -16.870.259.05-22.61

    -21.940.259.05-18.88

    -30.950.259.05-28.34

    -18.630.259.05-19.69

    -23.850.259.05-28.74

    -21.520.259.05-18.36

    -18.20.259.05-16.17

    -18.070.259.05-19.08

    -26.850.259.05-30.06

    -6.360.259.05-3.23

    4.320.259.057.38

    2.420.259.05-0.36

    28.390.259.0525.33

    18.110.259.0521.28

    21.520.259.0522.76

    14.530.259.0512.37

    17.920.259.0516.85

    23.980.259.0525.91

    26.130.259.0527.95

    24.90.259.0522.09

    37.480.259.0537.46

    28.630.259.0529.67

    13.310.259.0513.7

    31.940.259.0530.98

    26.030.259.0526.17

    29.950.259.0530.4

    40.190.259.0538.66

    34.750.259.0536.05

    17.330.259.0517.18

    13.010.259.0513.32

    4.340.259.054.05

    Figure 1: Weighted Net Balance of Business-Sector Activity*

  • 2

    -22.74-19.72-40

    -16.72-17.66-40

    -7.43-12.69-40

    -2.810.26-40

    -14.98-13.32-40

    -15.88-16.22-40

    -17.61-22.07-40

    -8.55-4.81-40

    4.769.44-40

    7.643.89-40

    28.4923.95-40

    21.4724.14-40

    22.626.51-40

    27.0724.43-40

    18.4914.33-40

    23.1925.51-40

    29.2336.75-40

    28.8823.83-40

    37.2733.09-40

    35.0735.81-40

    19.2525.98-40

    25.9922.27-40

    27.2524.49-40

    24.6923.71-40

    32.4838.43-40

    22.9421.2-40

    9.245.62-40

    4.064.21-40

    5.3113.02-40

    - *

    dio

    dio

    -29.82-36.7-60

    -23.44-17.32-60

    -47.76-45.61-60

    -40-41.16-60

    -18.64-23.6-60

    -19.64-15.54-60

    -31.67-30.52-60

    3230.6-60

    27.0818.85-60

    2.389.63-60

    48.8450.5-60

    1512.54-60

    25.6422.3-60

    31.7137.95-60

    27.525.2-60

    33.3332.55-60

    31.2527.59-60

    16.1323.19-60

    41.6737-60

    30.5630.98-60

    24.1423.09-60

    34.4840.51-60

    32.3527.08-60

    36.6738.07-60

    45.8346.91-60

    34.3837.67-60

    37.530.49-60

    -8.33-6.22-60

    -23.81-24.93-60

    4: - *

    tpr

    -39.79-35.14-80

    -26.43-27.78-80

    -34.13-39.06-80

    -25.45-23.08-80

    -24.62-21.54-80

    -40.96-43.08-80

    -41.83-42.86-80

    -62.4-61.4-80

    -37.61-32.76-80

    -40.14-46.67-80

    -17.99-15.69-80

    -25.79-24.44-80

    -20.34-18.18-80

    -26.77-32.61-80

    -10.99-6.82-80

    -1.450-80

    -3.60-80

    4.75-4.76-80

    8.4313.04-80

    17.119.05-80

    7.446.98-80

    22.217.5-80

    17.1719.44-80

    4.747.32-80

    24.3818.75-80

    18.5720.45-80

    -5.81-5.71-80

    4.947.5-80

    -12.22-13.04-80

    5: - *

    infl

    -86.15-100

    -83.58-100

    -78.69-100

    -80.3-100

    -43.55-100

    -43.08-100

    -84.13-100

    31.15-100

    59.65-100

    33.93-100

    68-100

    65.52-100

    68.97-100

    62.96-100

    68.52-100

    82.35-100

    80.43-100

    78.43-100

    80-100

    65.96-100

    -51.02-100

    -2-100

    -12.5-100

    20-100

    75-100

    72.5-100

    61.11-100

    71.79-100

    25-100

    ** .

    7: - **

    -3.83-50-7.8

    -33.62-50-36.43

    -19.11-50-19.67

    -21.82-50-13.69

    -10.54-50-15.24

    1.63-50-1.36

    -6.34-50-4.91

    -28.97-50-25.04

    7.77-502.6

    25.21-5024.7

    12.76-5015.09

    55.72-5057.62

    52.37-5046.33

    42.62-5047.41

    -16.94-50-16.33

    11-507.99

    43.86-5042.08

    24.46-5031.68

    16.18-5014.25

    48.37-5042.08

    7.13-507.93

    5.85-5014.55

    32.03-5025.98

    44.4-5036.96

    31.48-5036.51

    44.3-5056.86

    68.56-5056.53

    34.86-5028.7

    36.56-5044.31

    Percent

    Figure 6: Transport and Communications - Net Balance of Total Activity*

    data+1

    19.530.3386550019-10

    29.883.1942644782-10

    25.441.7931411629-10

    -6.780.5863152159-10

    30.254.4992825354-10

    23.05-0.754806114-10

    16.821.4854424239-10

    -0.753.6667105793-10

    16.950.4654843238-10

    34.252.9963163919-10

    26.772.7742576315-10

    23.121.5528672332-10

    9.520.5561463148-10

    30.451.5342724137-10

    31.22.2950821623-10

    12.52.1204605834-10

    18.531.1109810498-10

    21.572.2812753883-10

    30.713.7185605774-10

    14.99-0.0134887147-10

    20.751.0894365067-10

    32.72.6726771855-10

    28.822.2949477167-10

    6.210.6791177982-10

    0.81.9087555343-10

    7.240.8066862212-10

    -3.03-2.1491969781-10

    -17.412.4993910112-