1

2

Extreme Event

Extreme event is generally defined as the occurrence of a value of a weather or climate variable above (or below) a threshold value near the upper (or lower) ends (tails) of the range of observed values of the variable . (SREX)

Tmax35C50mm

Absolute thresholds can also be used to identify extreme events (e.g., specific critical temperatures for health impacts).

Temperature Extreme Indices

Tmax 95th percentile Tmin95th percentile

Temperature Extreme Indices

abc

Changes in extremes of temperature are also consistent with warming of the climate200(X)

40mm10mm

Definitions of thresholds vary, but values with less than a 10%, 5% or 1% or even lower chance of occurrence during a specified reference period (generally 1961-1990) are often used.

Joint CCl/CLIVAR/JCOMM Expert Team (ET) on Climate Change Detection and Indices (ETCCDI)

27 Core indicesFor moderate extremes

many more for snow, drought, etc. return values for more rare extremes (based on GEV analysis for consecutive 20yr periods) factsheets for significant weather events from the past (impacting energy, health, disasters, water, etc.)

1998

2

18.212.026.3418.97

15.611.996.2718.95

2011.916.0718.91

16.811.835.8118.9

12.511.795.5718.99

12.911.835.4419.17

12.611.925.4219.43

21.712.035.4719.68

12.212.095.5319.81

18.612.075.5419.73

15.811.955.4919.45

13.511.755.3719.02

12.211.55.2418.56

12.111.255.1618.2

1211.075.1918.02

8.5115.3918.05

14.911.065.7318.28

9.811.246.1218.65

6.211.486.4719.08

3.611.726.719.51

6.111.916.7819.87

7.112.016.7120.11

9.212.016.5120.18

7.811.916.2220.07

6.411.735.8919.87

10.811.515.5319.67

6.711.275.1719.53

10.711.024.8519.42

9.210.754.5519.31

10.610.494.2919.16

9.510.284.0418.97

1210.153.8218.77

9.710.13.6218.6

11.810.123.4518.48

9.210.193.3218.48

9.210.283.2218.68

910.393.219.12

17.510.513.3219.72

14.910.653.6420.36

17.210.824.1320.82

13.211.044.7121.01

17.311.315.2920.92

25.111.615.7820.68

22.511.96.1520.38

14.412.156.3920.13

10.112.326.5119.97

12.212.396.5219.9

13.512.386.4319.95

16.212.316.2520.09

20.712.21620.29

17.312.115.7420.46

14.812.035.5320.54

15.811.935.420.49

11.911.815.3720.31

12.811.685.4420.09

16.511.65.6219.89

15.311.655.8919.81

18.611.836.2319.89

15.812.136.6220.17

14.212.737.3421.14

1312.937.5921.66

11.513.057.7422.04

12.713.127.7922.23

16.913.167.7922.2

13.213.27.8122.03

13.413.267.9221.78

13.513.338.0921.56

13.613.448.2421.45

18.513.68.2921.51

15.913.848.2321.75

14.714.148.1522.08

17.714.488.1622.36

18.114.828.3422.44

14.515.128.6522.27

15.215.329.0221.94

1915.49.3521.64

14.215.359.5521.52

21.115.189.6221.66

16.714.969.621.96

6.114.749.5522.28

10.414.629.5222.51

8.614.659.5322.61

12.514.859.622.64

12.915.219.7522.69

20.615.659.9922.86

16.616.110.3223.16

18.916.4810.723.55

17.116.7611.0723.94

22.716.9711.3624.21

21.717.1311.5724.31

27.217.2811.7224.26

1917.4511.8524.15

17.417.6312.0224.09

22.617.8212.2424.18

2518.0112.5124.44

26.218.1812.824.83

23.218.3313.0925.27

23.418.4613.3525.67

20.318.5913.5325.95

24.218.7613.6226.08

2419.0113.6526.05

25.919.3313.7225.93

20.919.713.925.84

2620.0914.225.87

22.220.4514.5526.04

22.720.7314.8926.31

25.520.9315.1826.58

25.621.0615.4126.79

28.721.1715.6126.94

23.921.3115.7627.07

27.121.4915.8727.24

25.621.6815.9427.44

30.421.881627.63

29.822.0516.0727.8

26.422.216.227.92

1922.3216.3927.99

26.622.4316.6128.02

2522.5116.8328.06

2322.5517.0128.14

26.722.5417.1228.26

27.522.4817.1728.36

3322.4217.1528.44

22.722.4217.0828.48

22.522.5217.0228.54

22.422.7417.0328.66

27.223.0417.1928.87

29.123.3217.529.14

28.823.5417.9129.39

23.823.6518.3229.55

29.523.6818.6529.56

2923.6818.8729.41

24.523.691929.16

21.123.7419.0828.87

21.923.8319.1328.66

25.723.9819.1628.61

22.624.1619.1828.75

2424.3319.229.05

26.524.4519.1929.4

26.624.5119.1829.68

28.824.519.1929.81

28.724.4819.2729.82

2924.4919.4729.79

28.524.5719.7929.8

2624.7220.1629.9

22.124.9220.4930.06

24.725.1320.7530.23

26.125.3420.9330.37

26.425.5321.0630.44

28.325.721.1730.47

26.725.8621.2430.48

26.326.0121.2730.48

29.526.1521.2930.48

32.526.2621.3330.48

28.526.3321.430.45

28.326.3521.4730.4

29.626.3521.5230.39

2826.3621.5530.44

25.126.4421.630.6

2426.5621.730.85

22.126.6921.8831.15

22.226.7822.1131.44

22.826.8222.3231.68

28.226.8422.4731.86

27.826.8822.5431.95

26.226.9722.5731.97

22.627.1422.5831.94

25.527.3722.631.89

26.727.6322.6331.85

26.827.922.6531.86

25.728.1622.6631.91

24.928.3822.6832.01

22.528.5822.7432.13

26.428.7822.8732.26

25.52923.0932.39

25.629.2423.3832.55

26.329.4923.6832.76

30.429.7523.9733

32.63024.2433.26

33.130.2324.5133.5

32.230.4624.7933.7

3530.6825.1133.86

33.330.9125.4633.98

33.631.1325.7934.08

32.731.3426.0634.17

30.831.4826.2134.29

3131.5526.2734.45

33.431.5526.2934.62

32.831.5126.3434.79

33.131.4826.4734.94

3231.526.6535.07

33.531.5526.8835.19

34.131.6427.1935.33

33.631.7427.6235.48

3431.8428.1435.63

37.231.9628.735.78

39.632.0829.235.88

39.332.1929.5635.92

38.932.2829.7635.88

36.332.3429.8435.78

30.632.3629.8335.66

29.332.3529.7735.56

34.132.3129.6635.51

33.232.2529.4835.51

3032.1929.2335.51

33.132.1328.9235.49

35.232.0928.5935.41

30.832.0628.3535.32

32.432.0528.2835.26

31.932.0528.4135.23

33.532.0528.6635.24

3432.0428.9435.28

35.732.0429.1435.35

34.232.0329.2335.46

32.232.0129.2135.61

33.73229.1335.75

33.731.9729.0435.83

3031.9428.9835.82

33.331.8928.9635.73

33.631.8328.9535.57

34.231.7828.9435.38

34.231.7528.9135.19

3531.7428.935.07

35.531.7528.9535.03

34.431.7729.0835.07

3631.829.2735.13

35.231.8329.4735.13

3531.8429.635.07

3531.8429.6134.96

35.231.829.4834.86

34.331.7329.2334.8

34.231.6628.9634.8

34.331.5828.7634.8

3531.5128.6834.76

3431.4428.6834.63

3631.3828.6934.43

33.731.3228.6334.19

34.631.2628.5133.98

3431.1828.3533.84

33.431.1128.2233.76

28.531.0428.1433.73

26.730.9728.1133.72

25.530.9228.0833.72

25.530.8627.9633.68

3030.827.7533.59

31.530.7227.4633.43

30.230.6427.1533.22

27.930.5626.8733.03

24.330.4826.6332.92

28.230.426.3832.92

29.330.2826.0632.99

29.530.1125.6633.09

29.529.8825.1633.14

25.729.6224.6133.06

28.129.3924.0832.86

3029.2123.6732.58

31.829.123.5132.26

30.929.0223.631.97

32.628.9623.8631.73

29.528.8824.0831.54

29.128.7824.131.41

28.928.6423.8931.33

3128.4823.5331.27

26.128.323.1431.21

26.328.1322.8331.16

29.227.9722.6431.12

2927.8122.5731.08

27.927.6322.5931.05

28.827.4422.6430.99

31.527.2222.6430.9

31.52722.5430.82

26.726.7622.3230.77

27.226.5522.0630.78

28.426.3921.8230.82

32.326.2921.6630.83

3126.2421.5730.75

28.926.221.5330.57

29.126.1621.5130.3

30.726.121.530.01

31.726.0321.4929.74

3025.9521.4729.55

28.725.8821.4429.43

29.225.8121.3929.39

29.325.7221.329.38

28.525.6221.1829.36

31.725.492129.28

30.725.3320.829.16

30.825.1320.5829.03

25.524.8820.428.89

21.324.620.2828.73

26.524.320.2228.54

26.724.0420.228.33

24.723.8420.1428.12

22.123.719.9727.95

24.823.5919.6927.87

26.823.4919.3427.87

27.223.419.0227.91

27.123.318.7827.95

23.923.1918.6527.92

2023.0618.5827.85

2122.9218.527.76

17.722.7918.4327.68

22.122.718.427.59

27.422.6518.4327.43

2422.6218.4827.18

21.522.5918.4726.88

19.522.5818.3526.62

22.122.5618.1326.5

25.522.5317.8726.55

24.122.4317.6126.74

25.622.2217.3726.95

22.921.8917.1327.08

23.821.4516.8827.06

25.62116.6126.9

21.720.6316.3226.66

21.520.416.0226.39

22.320.2915.6626.1

23.520.215.2425.8

25.820.0814.7125.45

26.519.8814.1225.08

28.719.6513.5424.71

22.519.4413.0624.39

15.219.2912.7524.13

1719.1812.6323.92

20.119.0512.6623.74

1718.8612.7623.6

2118.5812.8923.47

19.518.2412.9923.36

21.917.8813.0523.22

18.817.5313.0223.02

17.717.2112.8222.74

19.516.912.422.39

21.316.6311.7822.04

19.516.3911.0621.78

24.916.2310.421.66

19.716.179.9421.71

17.616.199.7721.88

12.916.259.8422.1

11.116.2710.0122.31

16.416.2110.1522.48

16.216.110.1522.59

16.815.971022.64

1415.869.7322.58

1415.779.3622.4

16.915.668.9722.15

15.415.478.6321.87

17.815.198.421.65

15.914.868.3321.52

18.814.548.421.47

14.514.318.5321.44

19.114.188.6421.39

19.514.158.6921.29

14.614.178.6821.14

19.714.198.6520.97

18.314.188.6320.82

15.914.118.5620.76

17.813.968.3420.8

16.213.727.8920.92

1713.397.2721.07

16.513.046.621.16

13.912.766.0321.14

17.112.615.6421.01

17.512.65.4320.8

18.512.695.3320.58

16.712.85.2820.42

14.612.845.2720.36

5

95

T58659-1998

daymth95

1118.212.026.3418.97

2115.611.996.2718.95

312011.916.0718.91

4116.811.835.8118.9

5112.511.795.5718.99

6112.911.835.4419.17

7112.611.925.4219.43

8121.712.035.4719.68

9112.212.095.5319.81

10118.612.075.5419.73

11115.811.955.4919.45

12113.511.755.3719.02

13112.211.55.2418.56

14112.111.255.1618.2

1511211.075.1918.02

1618.5115.3918.05

17114.911.065.7318.28

1819.811.246.1218.65

1916.211.486.4719.08

2013.611.726.719.51

2116.111.916.7819.87

2217.112.016.7120.11

2319.212.016.5120.18

2417.811.916.2220.07

2516.411.735.8919.87

26110.811.515.5319.67

2716.711.275.1719.53

28110.711.024.8519.42

2919.210.754.5519.31

30110.610.494.2919.16

3119.510.284.0418.97

121210.153.8218.77

229.710.13.6218.6

3211.810.123.4518.48

429.210.193.3218.48

529.210.283.2218.68

62910.393.219.12

7217.510.513.3219.72

8214.910.653.6420.36

9217.210.824.1320.82

10213.211.044.7121.01

11217.311.315.2920.92

12225.111.615.7820.68

13222.511.96.1520.38

14214.412.156.3920.13

15210.112.326.5119.97

16212.212.396.5219.9

17213.512.386.4319.95

18216.212.316.2520.09

19220.712.21620.29

20217.312.115.7420.46

21214.812.035.5320.54

22215.811.935.420.49

23211.911.815.3720.31

24212.811.685.4420.09

25216.511.65.6219.89

26215.311.655.8919.81

27218.611.836.2319.89

28215.812.136.6220.17

1314.212.737.3421.14

231312.937.5921.66

3311.513.057.7422.04

4312.713.127.7922.23

5316.913.167.7922.2

6313.213.27.8122.03

7313.413.267.9221.78

8313.513.338.0921.56

9313.613.448.2421.45

10318.513.68.2921.51

11315.913.848.2321.75

12314.714.148.1522.08

13317.714.488.1622.36

14318.114.828.3422.44

15314.515.128.6522.27

16315.215.329.0221.94

1731915.49.3521.64

18314.215.359.5521.52

19321.115.189.6221.66

20316.714.969.621.96

2136.114.749.5522.28

22310.414.629.5222.51

2338.614.659.5322.61

24312.514.859.622.64

25312.915.219.7522.69

26320.615.659.9922.86

27316.616.110.3223.16

28318.916.4810.723.55

29317.116.7611.0723.94

30322.716.9711.3624.21

31321.717.1311.5724.31

1427.217.2811.7224.26

241917.4511.8524.15

3417.417.6312.0224.09

4422.617.8212.2424.18

542518.0112.5124.44

6426.218.1812.824.83

7423.218.3313.0925.27

8423.418.4613.3525.67

9420.318.5913.5325.95

10424.218.7613.6226.08

1142419.0113.6526.05

12425.919.3313.7225.93

13420.919.713.925.84

1442620.0914.225.87

15422.220.4514.5526.04

16422.720.7314.8926.31

17425.520.9315.1826.58

18425.621.0615.4126.79

19428.721.1715.6126.94

20423.921.3115.7627.07

21427.121.4915.8727.24

22425.621.6815.9427.44

23430.421.881627.63

24429.822.0516.0727.8

25426.422.216.227.92

2641922.3216.3927.99

27426.622.4316.6128.02

2842522.5116.8328.06

2942322.5517.0128.14

30426.722.5417.1228.26

1527.522.4817.1728.36

253322.4217.1528.44

3522.722.4217.0828.48

4522.522.5217.0228.54

5522.422.7417.0328.66

6527.223.0417.1928.87

7529.123.3217.529.14

8528.823.5417.9129.39

9523.823.6518.3229.55

10529.523.6818.6529.56

1152923.6818.8729.41

12524.523.691929.16

13521.123.7419.0828.87

14521.923.8319.1328.66

15525.723.9819.1628.61

16522.624.1619.1828.75

1752424.3319.229.05

18526.524.4519.1929.4

19526.624.5119.1829.68

20528.824.519.1929.81

21528.724.4819.2729.82

2252924.4919.4729.79

23528.524.5719.7929.8

2452624.7220.1629.9

25522.124.9220.4930.06

26524.725.1320.7530.23

27526.125.3420.9330.37

28526.425.5321.0630.44

29528.325.721.1730.47

30526.725.8621.2430.48

31526.326.0121.2730.48

1629.526.1521.2930.48

2632.526.2621.3330.48

3628.526.3321.430.45

4628.326.3521.4730.4

5629.626.3521.5230.39

662826.3621.5530.44

7625.126.4421.630.6

862426.5621.730.85

9622.126.6921.8831.15

10622.226.7822.1131.44

11622.826.8222.3231.68

12628.226.8422.4731.86

13627.826.8822.5431.95

14626.226.9722.5731.97

15622.627.1422.5831.94

16625.527.3722.631.89

17626.727.6322.6331.85

18626.827.922.6531.86

19625.728.1622.6631.91

20624.928.3822.6832.01

21622.528.5822.7432.13

22626.428.7822.8732.26

23625.52923.0932.39

24625.629.2423.3832.55

25626.329.4923.6832.76

26630.429.7523.9733

27632.63024.2433.26

28633.130.2324.5133.5

29632.230.4624.7933.7

3063530.6825.1133.86

1733.330.9125.4633.98

2733.631.1325.7934.08

3732.731.3426.0634.17

4730.831.4826.2134.29

573131.5526.2734.45

6733.431.5526.2934.62

7732.831.5126.3434.79

8733.131.4826.4734.94

973231.526.6535.07

10733.531.5526.8835.19

11734.131.6427.1935.33

12733.631.7427.6235.48

1373431.8428.1435.63

14737.231.9628.735.78

15739.632.0829.235.88

16739.332.1929.5635.92

17738.932.2829.7635.88

18736.332.3429.8435.78

19730.632.3629.8335.66

20729.332.3529.7735.56

21734.132.3129.6635.51

22733.232.2529.4835.51

2373032.1929.2335.51

24733.132.1328.9235.49

25735.232.0928.5935.41

26730.832.0628.3535.32

27732.432.0528.2835.26

28731.932.0528.4135.23

29733.532.0528.6635.24

3073432.0428.9435.28

31735.732.0429.1435.35

1834.232.0329.2335.46

2832.232.0129.2135.61

3833.73229.1335.75

4833.731.9729.0435.83

583031.9428.9835.82

6833.331.8928.9635.73

7833.631.8328.9535.57

8834.231.7828.9435.38

9834.231.7528.9135.19

1083531.7428.935.07

11835.531.7528.9535.03

12834.431.7729.0835.07

1383631.829.2735.13

14835.231.8329.4735.13

1583531.8429.635.07

1683531.8429.6134.96

17835.231.829.4834.86

18834.331.7329.2334.8

19834.231.6628.9634.8

20834.331.5828.7634.8

2183531.5128.6834.76

2283431.4428.6834.63

2383631.3828.6934.43

24833.731.3228.6334.19

25834.631.2628.5133.98

2683431.1828.3533.84

27833.431.1128.2233.76

28828.531.0428.1433.73

29826.730.9728.1133.72

30825.530.9228.0833.72

31825.530.8627.9633.68

193030.827.7533.59

2931.530.7227.4633.43

3930.230.6427.1533.22

4927.930.5626.8733.03

5924.330.4826.6332.92

6928.230.426.3832.92

7929.330.2826.0632.99

8929.530.1125.6633.09

9929.529.8825.1633.14

10925.729.6224.6133.06

11928.129.3924.0832.86

1293029.2123.6732.58

13931.829.123.5132.26

14930.929.0223.631.97

15932.628.9623.8631.73

16929.528.8824.0831.54

17929.128.7824.131.41

18928.928.6423.8931.33

1993128.4823.5331.27

20926.128.323.1431.21

21926.328.1322.8331.16

22929.227.9722.6431.12

2392927.8122.5731.08

24927.927.6322.5931.05

25928.827.4422.6430.99

26931.527.2222.6430.9

27931.52722.5430.82

28926.726.7622.3230.77

29927.226.5522.0630.78

30928.426.3921.8230.82

11032.326.2921.6630.83

2103126.2421.5730.75

31028.926.221.5330.57

41029.126.1621.5130.3

51030.726.121.530.01

61031.726.0321.4929.74

7103025.9521.4729.55

81028.725.8821.4429.43

91029.225.8121.3929.39

101029.325.7221.329.38

111028.525.6221.1829.36

121031.725.492129.28

131030.725.3320.829.16

141030.825.1320.5829.03

151025.524.8820.428.89

161021.324.620.2828.73

171026.524.320.2228.54

181026.724.0420.228.33

191024.723.8420.1428.12

201022.123.719.9727.95

211024.823.5919.6927.87

221026.823.4919.3427.87

231027.223.419.0227.91

241027.123.318.7827.95

251023.923.1918.6527.92

26102023.0618.5827.85

27102122.9218.527.76

281017.722.7918.4327.68

291022.122.718.427.59

301027.422.6518.4327.43

31102422.6218.4827.18

11121.522.5918.4726.88

21119.522.5818.3526.62

31122.122.5618.1326.5

41125.522.5317.8726.55

51124.122.4317.6126.74

61125.622.2217.3726.95

71122.921.8917.1327.08

81123.821.4516.8827.06

91125.62116.6126.9

101121.720.6316.3226.66

111121.520.416.0226.39

121122.320.2915.6626.1

131123.520.215.2425.8

141125.820.0814.7125.45

151126.519.8814.1225.08

161128.719.6513.5424.71

171122.519.4413.0624.39

181115.219.2912.7524.13

19111719.1812.6323.92

201120.119.0512.6623.74

21111718.8612.7623.6

22112118.5812.8923.47

231119.518.2412.9923.36

241121.917.8813.0523.22

251118.817.5313.0223.02

261117.717.2112.8222.74

271119.516.912.422.39

281121.316.6311.7822.04

291119.516.3911.0621.78

301124.916.2310.421.66

11219.716.179.9421.71

21217.616.199.7721.88

31212.916.259.8422.1

41211.116.2710.0122.31

51216.416.2110.1522.48

61216.216.110.1522.59

71216.815.971022.64

8121415.869.7322.58

9121415.779.3622.4

101216.915.668.9722.15

111215.415.478.6321.87

121217.815.198.421.65

131215.914.868.3321.52

141218.814.548.421.47

151214.514.318.5321.44

161219.114.188.6421.39

171219.514.158.6921.29

181214.614.178.6821.14

191219.714.198.6520.97

201218.314.188.6320.82

211215.914.118.5620.76

221217.813.968.3420.8

231216.213.727.8920.92

24121713.397.2721.07

251216.513.046.621.16

261213.912.766.0321.14

271217.112.615.6421.01

281217.512.65.4320.8

291218.512.695.3320.58

301216.712.85.2820.42

311214.612.845.2720.36

daymthminmin_mean5th95th

11114.5-1.0710.5

2110.34.49-1.110.45

3111.34.45-1.1810.33

411.44.37-1.2610.18

5124.26-1.3110.09

613.54.12-1.3110.1

715.43.97-1.2610.22

818.83.81-1.1810.41

918.53.65-1.110.6

1019.63.5-1.0810.73

11112.53.35-1.1210.75

1219.23.22-1.2510.64

1318.53.14-1.4310.43

14111.43.13-1.6510.19

15173.22-1.8410

1615.43.41-1.959.92

1717.33.68-1.949.95

1814.33.97-1.8110.07

1911.44.25-1.6210.24

2011.44.52-1.4410.43

2113.54.78-1.3110.65

2212.85.02-1.2210.89

2311.75.19-1.1411.1

2411.65.29-1.0611.26

251-1.15.3-0.9411.34

2610.25.24-0.7911.33

2713.35.1-0.6511.23

2816.14.87-0.5511.03

2911.64.53-0.5610.72

3014.44.11-0.6810.39

3116.93.68-0.8410.13

128.23.34-0.9810

227.93.17-1.0610.02

328.73.18-1.110.12

425.73.36-1.1110.26

522.93.62-1.1310.39

623.13.89-1.1410.5

723.74.13-1.1210.59

822.84.33-1.0610.65

9274.51-0.9410.68

1029.64.7-0.7710.68

1127.14.9-0.5410.7

12295.14-0.2710.76

13211.55.39-0.0310.85

1429.55.630.1310.97

1527.75.810.211.09

1628.55.90.2111.19

17210.85.920.2411.29

18210.85.90.3211.39

19214.15.880.4311.5

20211.75.870.5411.57

21210.75.860.5811.54

2229.35.850.5511.36

2329.65.810.4911.03

2429.45.740.4110.67

2526.55.650.3410.38

2627.65.580.2810.25

2729.35.550.2510.32

28210.55.620.2410.55

136.26.040.2411.26

2376.280.2911.61

339.56.460.4111.87

4310.36.530.6412.01

539.76.550.9712.03

6396.581.3611.97

7311.46.691.811.88

8311.66.892.2311.81

93127.172.6611.8

10312.97.463.0411.86

11310.67.723.3411.99

1239.57.923.5512.18

13388.053.6912.43

1439.48.123.812.68

1539.98.173.8912.89

1638.78.263.9813.03

17310.28.44.0613.12

18311.58.584.1513.17

19314.28.734.2513.25

2035.58.794.3413.35

2134.58.744.3813.47

2234.28.624.3313.56

23368.54.2113.6

2437.88.464.1213.57

253108.554.1513.53

26310.58.784.3213.55

273129.134.5813.68

28311.79.544.8613.89

29312.59.935.0714.14

30313.810.235.2114.37

31315.810.435.3314.56

1415.510.545.514.72

2411.310.625.7414.9

3410.710.726.0415.11

4412.310.886.3615.36

5416.911.116.6315.64

641711.46.8215.91

7416.711.696.9116.14

8417.711.956.9416.34

9417.412.136.9516.48

10417.412.25716.58

11417.612.347.1316.64

12418.812.477.3316.72

13416.512.667.616.87

1441612.917.9317.12

15416.313.178.3217.44

16414.613.418.7717.78

17416.513.619.2718.07

18415.413.779.7418.25

19415.213.8910.1218.33

20420.11410.3518.35

21418.114.1110.4318.37

22420.314.2410.4318.46

23421.314.410.4218.61

24421.214.5710.4318.81

25417.514.7510.4819

26416.914.9410.5519.15

27418.415.1610.6519.28

28419.415.4110.7719.4

29420.915.6410.9519.55

30421.315.8211.1819.72

1522.215.9311.4319.9

2522.515.9811.6620.08

352016.0111.8220.24

4519.316.0911.9620.38

5518.116.2512.1220.5

652016.5212.3620.59

7520.516.8712.6920.68

8522.217.2513.0720.79

9519.517.5813.4220.94

10521.417.8313.6621.12

11523.617.9813.7721.27

12518.518.0313.7921.36

13517.718.0113.7721.37

14518.717.9713.7721.35

15520.617.9413.821.36

16520.317.9513.8321.47

17519.418.0313.8621.69

18520.418.1413.8721.99

19520.818.2313.8522.29

20521.918.2913.8422.53

21522.918.3313.8922.67

22519.918.414.0322.74

23521.618.5414.2522.76

2452218.7714.5222.79

25515.419.0414.822.84

26515.119.3115.0822.92

27516.419.5315.3623.03

28518.219.6715.6623.16

29519.219.7615.9723.26

30521.319.7916.2623.31

31519.519.7916.5123.31

162119.816.7123.25

2623.619.8316.8223.17

3622.419.8816.8623.1

4620.619.9616.8423.05

5622.220.0516.7923.06

6618.920.1616.7623.15

7620.520.2816.7623.32

862120.416.823.55

9619.320.5416.8623.77

10620.320.6816.9723.98

11620.520.8417.1224.16

12621.72117.3624.34

1362421.1617.6724.54

1462121.3218.0224.75

15620.521.5118.3224.95

16621.321.7218.5325.11

17622.821.9818.6125.21

18623.522.2718.625.25

19619.322.5518.5725.25

20618.422.8118.5725.24

2161923.0118.6425.25

22620.623.1518.7825.3

2362223.2618.9825.37

2462323.3719.225.45

25622.823.4819.4425.52

26624.723.6119.6825.57

27625.423.7719.9225.62

2862523.9520.1825.69

29625.224.1620.4825.78

3062524.3620.8125.9

172624.5321.1726.04

272624.6621.4926.16

3724.824.7421.7526.26

4723.724.821.9226.32

5725.724.852226.35

6725.724.8822.0526.37

7726.324.9122.126.39

8724.824.9422.1926.42

9725.524.9822.3126.48

10725.825.0322.4526.56

11726.325.122.626.65

1272725.1722.7726.74

1372725.2522.9526.84

1472725.3123.1526.93

15727.525.3523.3226.99

1672825.3723.4727.01

17727.125.3623.5626.99

18727.525.3223.626.92

19727.525.2723.6126.85

20726.925.2123.5826.79

21726.525.1523.5126.74

22726.325.0823.4326.7

23725.125.0323.3526.67

24726.32523.2626.63

25726.62523.1726.59

26724.525.0323.0826.57

27724.825.0722.9926.58

28725.225.1122.9426.62

29726.525.1522.9626.69

30724.825.1923.0626.79

3172725.2423.226.88

1825.825.2923.3426.95

2826.125.3323.426.98

3826.625.3623.3826.96

4826.525.3623.2826.9

5825.525.3323.1326.82

6826.925.292326.73

7826.625.2422.926.65

8827.325.222.8526.58

9826.925.1722.8426.53

10825.725.1522.8826.51

11826.925.1322.9726.51

12826.725.1223.0826.53

13827.225.123.226.54

1482725.0823.326.56

15826.525.0523.3526.57

16827.225.0223.3626.59

17825.924.9923.3526.6

18823.924.9523.3226.62

19825.724.9323.2426.63

20825.124.923.126.62

21825.524.8822.8726.59

22826.624.8622.5826.56

23823.924.8222.326.53

24823.524.7622.0726.49

25825.124.6821.9426.44

2682524.5921.8926.35

27823.324.5121.9226.24

28823.624.4521.9826.13

29820.624.422.0126.05

30821.124.3721.9826.01

31821.224.3521.926

1920.924.3321.7826

292224.2921.6725.99

3923.824.2321.5925.96

4923.424.1521.5225.92

5921.824.0521.4325.86

6921.523.9121.2525.78

792223.7520.9625.71

8922.623.5520.5625.66

9922.223.3420.125.62

10921.523.119.6225.58

11922.422.8719.1825.49

12924.522.6518.7825.32

1392422.4418.4625.09

14923.322.2618.224.84

15923.622.0818.0124.61

16923.321.9117.8524.43

17919.421.7317.7224.3

18919.721.5417.624.22

19920.521.3617.524.16

20921.321.1917.4224.12

21921.821.0217.3324.11

22917.220.8417.224.13

23917.520.6516.9924.18

24918.820.4316.7324.21

25920.220.2216.4524.2

26920.420.0116.1924.14

27922.119.8115.9924.01

2892119.6315.8223.83

29922.519.4915.6523.64

30921.519.3815.4623.48

11018.819.2915.2623.34

21018.719.1915.0523.21

31019.819.0514.8423.05

41019.618.8514.5922.83

5102018.5914.3222.58

6102118.2914.0522.33

71022.217.9913.8122.15

81021.217.7513.6322.06

91019.517.5913.4922.06

101020.117.513.3922.11

111021.917.4613.2922.18

12102217.4113.2222.22

131024.117.3113.1522.19

14102317.1813.0722.1

151020.517.0312.9521.97

161018.816.8812.7321.83

171015.916.7312.3821.71

181015.516.5611.9121.59

191016.516.3811.3921.43

201017.916.1910.921.23

211016.716.0210.5220.99

221016.715.8910.2520.75

231017.715.7910.0720.54

241017.915.79.9320.36

25101815.599.7720.21

261017.315.439.5820.07

271016.815.189.3419.97

281015.114.869.1119.87

291016.814.58.9819.75

301017.314.199.0119.58

311018.113.959.219.32

11114.313.839.4119.01

21113.713.789.5318.71

3111413.769.4718.47

41117.213.749.2818.34

51116.813.79.0118.32

61113.813.658.718.34

71111.713.598.3318.36

81112.413.527.8718.32

91112.713.447.3618.22

101113.313.326.8818.08

111113.113.176.5217.94

121111.212.996.3317.8

131111.512.816.2917.66

141113.812.656.3217.5

151115.812.56.3417.33

161117.312.366.2817.17

171113.912.226.1217.04

18119.812.045.8616.94

19119.311.815.5616.86

20111411.525.2316.79

211113.211.174.8516.72

221111.710.794.4316.67

231110.210.39416.63

241110.69.983.6416.58

251111.49.583.416.47

261113.49.193.2216.27

2711158.823.0215.95

281112.68.462.7115.55

291114.48.062.315.14

301114.57.651.8614.81

11216.57.281.5214.6

212127.021.3814.49

3127.26.881.4614.43

4127.66.861.6914.39

5129.76.891.9414.33

6128.46.922.0714.25

712116.94214.15

8125.66.931.7614.01

9124.46.911.4313.82

10125.16.861.0813.58

11125.56.750.7413.32

12126.56.570.4313.06

131266.380.1612.88

141210.76.22-0.0412.77

151210.56.14-0.1412.74

16127.56.14-0.1312.75

171256.16-0.0112.75

18129.46.150.1612.71

1912136.080.312.58

201210.95.940.3312.38

211213.15.770.2112.12

221213.75.59-0.0611.84

231212.15.44-0.411.57

24127.35.33-0.7311.37

25126.15.23-111.27

26126.65.15-1.211.31

27127.25.1-1.3611.47

281265.06-1.5411.7

29126.95.05-1.7411.92

30127.35.05-1.912.07

31129.85.05-1.9712.13

T58659-1998

5

95

1975

1

1710.174.0814.82

13.510.174.1214.79

12.310.164.214.72

11.310.174.2914.68

10.510.184.3414.71

1310.184.3514.81

14.310.134.3514.94

15.210.024.3315.06

14.79.864.3215.12

12.69.674.315.14

12.29.474.2715.1

10.89.34.2415.01

129.194.1714.85

12.99.164.0814.65

13.59.253.9714.43

11.39.443.8914.23

11.39.713.914.09

8.19.994.0214.01

1110.264.2214

10.410.474.4614.07

11.110.654.714.23

8.410.84.9414.48

7.110.925.1314.78

11.211.025.2215.05

13.811.095.1815.26

13.811.115.0315.39

1311.054.8615.44

10.210.894.7315.43

9.110.614.6415.36

13.510.274.5915.27

13.89.934.5715.17

14.79.694.6115.11

17.49.584.7115.08

16.39.624.8615.08

16.89.755.0215.12

17.29.925.0915.21

17.110.115.0215.38

14.510.34.8115.6

11.610.54.5315.84

10.210.694.3116.04

9.810.864.2716.15

9.611.044.4716.18

10.811.214.8516.16

12.111.385.316.16

12.111.525.7216.23

12.611.656.0716.37

11.311.776.3716.52

11.611.96.6316.64

11.812.026.8416.73

10.512.126.9616.79

7.812.176.9816.83

6.912.176.9416.82

7.812.16.8616.76

611.996.816.63

8.211.856.7616.49

11.411.736.7616.35

12.511.656.7516.21

13.811.646.7216.05

14.611.696.6315.9

13.911.926.2615.88

14.612.076.0716.09

15.612.22616.44

15.112.356.1216.86

16.212.486.4517.25

16.912.596.917.54

13.212.77.3917.68

12.912.817.8517.68

14.212.938.2617.6

15.613.078.617.53

14.513.218.8717.55

14.313.369.0617.72

12.613.519.218

12.813.639.3118.32

1113.749.4318.56

10.413.869.5918.63

8.614.019.8118.54

14.414.1710.0818.37

15.314.3110.3418.22

16.914.3610.5218.16

15.614.3210.5818.19

1514.1910.5118.26

1514.0510.3718.32

13.613.9810.2718.33

13.714.0310.2618.32

15.314.2110.3718.36

14.314.4910.5518.52

15.614.810.7518.86

16.315.0710.9419.33

17.715.2511.0819.83

14.415.3511.1920.24

14.615.411.2920.49

14.515.4711.4120.63

12.115.5911.620.73

15.715.7911.8620.86

18.116.0512.1721

17.316.3612.4421.11

17.116.6812.6221.17

19.616.9612.6821.21

18.217.1712.6621.28

19.617.312.6221.42

18.417.3812.6321.63

18.217.4712.7221.89

20.117.612.9122.19

19.117.7713.1922.46

19.417.9413.5522.66

20.418.113.9522.77

2218.2214.3422.79

22.918.3214.6822.76

23.118.4214.9422.71

21.818.5315.1222.68

19.818.6615.2122.69

20.918.8215.2422.75

20.819.0115.2722.87

2119.2215.3423.01

21.819.4315.523.16

23.819.6115.7423.26

23.219.7616.0323.31

23.819.9216.3123.31

22.720.116.5323.32

21.520.316.6423.39

21.220.4916.6323.53

23.120.6316.5223.73

23.820.7216.4223.94

2420.7816.4124.12

22.220.8316.5424.22

19.620.916.824.28

18.221.0317.1324.33

20.921.2217.4824.42

23.421.4317.7824.57

25.221.6418.0224.77

23.421.7818.1724.96

21.421.8518.2425.08

21.321.8618.2425.09

23.521.8318.2125.02

22.921.7918.1424.91

2421.7818.0524.81

23.821.817.9324.76

24.221.8317.824.75

23.521.8617.7124.77

19.821.8617.724.76

19.821.8817.824.72

20.821.9317.9924.64

19.722.0418.2624.57

21.222.2118.5824.54

22.922.4218.9124.59

22.622.6319.224.7

21.522.8319.424.87

21.523.0319.525.07

23.123.1919.5125.29

22.423.3119.4625.49

22.723.3819.3925.64

23.523.419.3325.71

23.123.3619.2925.68

2423.2919.2825.56

24.223.2419.3425.39

24.623.2119.4725.26

24.223.2119.6925.2

23.923.2619.9625.25

24.323.3420.2425.39

24.923.4520.4625.57

25.823.5720.6125.77

25.623.6920.6825.95

22.223.8220.7226.09

21.523.9420.7926.2

21.824.0820.9226.28

22.624.2521.1326.34

2424.4521.426.4

24.424.6821.6726.47

25.124.8821.8726.53

24.825.0521.9626.59

25.725.1621.9826.65

2625.221.9726.69

25.225.222.0126.71

25.625.1722.1626.71

25.425.1322.4126.71

25.425.1122.7126.7

25.525.112326.7

26.525.1323.2526.72

25.225.1623.4326.73

24.825.2123.5426.75

24.825.2623.5926.78

23.525.3123.6126.82

25.925.3823.6226.86

25.725.4423.6526.89

25.825.5223.6926.92

26.225.6123.7626.92

26.425.6923.8226.92

26.225.7623.8626.91

26.225.823.8726.91

26.325.8123.8626.9

26.425.7823.8326.89

26.725.7423.8126.88

24.325.723.826.86

24.425.6623.826.85

24.325.6423.826.84

23.825.6323.7726.86

24.625.6323.7226.9

24.925.6323.6526.95

25.425.6423.5727

26.525.6623.5327.05

25.325.6723.5327.1

25.825.6623.5627.13

24.825.6323.627.14

2425.5723.6127.13

25.525.4923.5927.11

25.425.3923.5427.09

2625.323.4627.09

26.525.2523.3827.11

26.525.2323.3127.15

2725.2423.2627.19

27.325.2723.2427.21

23.525.3223.2527.21

23.825.3923.327.18

24.525.4623.3827.12

26.125.5523.4727.06

25.825.6323.5727.02

25.925.6923.6627

2625.7223.7127

25.225.7223.727.03

25.225.6723.6527.07

26.125.6123.5927.12

27.125.5523.5427.15

25.825.5123.5627.15

25.625.523.6427.12

25.625.5123.7527.08

25.625.5323.8427.05

25.625.5423.8827.05

26.325.5423.8827.07

27.425.5323.8627.08

2625.5123.8227.08

25.425.523.7827.05

26.325.523.7327.01

25.525.4923.6626.97

25.925.4823.6126.93

2625.4523.5826.88

26.625.4223.5926.81

24.925.3723.6226.73

2625.3123.6326.66

26.325.2623.626.59

26.325.223.5326.54

24.425.1423.4326.52

24.725.123.3426.5

23.925.0623.2626.49

25.725.0323.2326.48

24.42523.2426.46

24.724.9723.2826.43

24.924.9423.3526.4

25.324.8923.426.36

25.324.8323.4126.3

25.524.7423.3426.24

24.624.6423.1726.17

25.524.5322.8926.11

24.424.4222.5526.06

24.424.3322.1626.01

24.424.2521.7725.94

23.924.1921.3825.85

23.824.1321.0125.76

22.724.0820.6525.67

23.524.0220.3225.59

22.723.9420.0325.52

23.923.8619.8125.44

24.423.7619.6625.35

24.623.6519.5925.26

25.323.5319.5825.18

23.723.3919.5925.11

22.123.2619.6125.07

22.223.1319.5925.03

24.723.0119.5224.99

24.922.9119.3924.94

24.422.8119.2224.88

24.822.7419.0424.84

24.622.6818.8424.82

24.722.6418.6324.84

24.722.5918.3824.9

24.722.518.1124.96

24.522.3517.8524.98

23.522.1517.6224.94

23.521.9117.4224.82

24.821.6717.2324.64

24.421.4317.0524.44

23.621.2316.8624.25

19.321.0716.6624.09

21.720.9716.4723.96

22.920.9216.323.87

23.120.8916.223.78

24.520.8316.223.69

22.320.7116.2723.59

20.220.5216.3523.48

20.620.3216.3223.37

20.220.1516.1223.29

20.820.0315.7823.24

21.419.9415.3723.21

21.419.8515.0223.18

19.919.7314.7623.13

22.219.614.5823.04

23.419.4814.4622.89

2419.3714.3322.72

21.819.2614.222.55

21.319.0914.0522.41

21.518.8113.8722.29

22.918.4413.6622.17

21.918.0313.4622.02

17.517.6713.3121.84

14.317.4113.2521.63

16.417.2613.2521.43

15.217.2213.2621.29

17.517.2413.2721.21

17.917.2913.2421.2

20.417.3513.221.22

19.317.413.1221.24

17.817.4112.9821.25

17.417.3612.7421.22

17.417.2512.4321.17

19.917.0912.0921.11

19.516.9211.821.06

19.516.7611.5720.99

19.316.6511.3920.9

15.816.5711.2220.76

14.416.4911.0320.58

15.416.3610.8220.36

14.316.1710.620.12

1615.9110.4119.87

18.215.6210.2819.63

17.315.3210.1819.41

16.515.0310.0819.22

16.214.749.9519.05

1014.479.7918.91

4.714.29.5918.79

7.113.929.3518.71

1013.639.0518.67

10.313.338.6918.68

1013.048.3118.73

12.412.757.9418.76

13.812.497.6118.77

15.912.287.3418.73

15.512.167.1318.66

14.512.166.9918.56

18.212.246.9318.44

18.512.366.9518.28

19.812.456.9918.04

1812.456.9817.74

17.612.376.8617.41

12.112.216.6317.07

10.712.026.316.76

9.511.825.9316.5

7.111.675.5316.32

5.911.575.0916.24

3.911.544.6316.28

2.711.554.2416.43

2.211.554.0416.64

2.511.524.1116.87

4.111.444.4317.06

6.711.314.8617.18

10.211.155.2417.18

8.811.025.4517.08

3.110.975.4616.9

3.611.015.3616.68

4.511.15.2416.46

5.611.165.1516.3

8.711.115.0516.23

12.910.964.8816.28

7.910.754.6116.45

1.810.554.316.66

3.110.424.0516.84

3.410.383.9516.91

5

95

T59316-1975

daymthmaxmax_mean5th95th

112517.2113.0121.51

2118.317.211321.48

3115.217.21321.43

4117.217.213.0521.4

5117.517.2113.1621.48

6117.417.2513.3221.7

7116.917.3113.4422.05

811917.3413.4722.49

9116.717.3413.422.94

10117.217.313.2423.31

11116.517.211323.54

12115.317.1212.7323.6

1311517.0412.4323.47

14114.517.0112.1423.2

15119.817.0311.9222.87

16117.817.1111.822.58

1711517.2111.822.41

18115.517.3211.922.38

19113.917.4212.0422.47

20112.217.512.1922.62

21114.517.5712.3122.8

22116.517.6212.3922.96

2311617.6212.4523.09

24121.217.5512.4723.17

25121.417.4212.4423.23

26116.817.2512.3423.27

27115.817.0512.1323.27

2811716.8211.7823.2

2911716.5711.3223.09

30116.316.2810.8322.99

3111916.0210.4122.97

1220.315.8510.1323.06

2225.315.829.9823.2

3221.715.939.923.32

4224.616.129.8223.38

5220.816.319.7123.39

622416.429.6623.46

7220.616.459.7723.63

8214.616.4310.1223.9

9212.616.4610.6824.19

10213.216.5911.3224.4

1121316.8111.9124.5

12213.717.112.3424.54

13213.417.4112.5824.58

14222.417.6912.6824.66

15217.317.9112.7124.78

1621718.0512.7124.9

17217.618.112.6924.99

18218.818.0712.6225.07

19217.217.9812.4725.15

20220.517.8512.2925.25

21217.217.712.1225.36

22215.317.511225.45

23217.117.2911.9425.47

24218.617.0611.9125.39

25222.516.8811.8625.26

26219.916.811.7825.12

27224.816.8811.7324.98

2821817.111.7524.86

1320.217.7212.0424.88

232117.9712.2425.04

3319.718.1312.4525.28

4316.818.2212.6625.54

532418.2912.8925.79

6321.218.3913.1325.97

7317.418.5213.3626.07

8316.418.6813.5326.08

932318.8713.6326.05

10320.519.0913.6426.06

11315.919.3813.626.18

12316.719.7113.5626.43

13314.420.0313.5926.73

14315.820.2413.7226.97

15314.820.3113.9527.06

16316.520.2714.2227.03

17317.620.214.4726.93

1831620.1614.6226.83

19325.620.1314.6626.74

20322.320.0714.5626.65

21319.619.9314.3726.55

22316.319.7414.1526.46

23322.819.5714.0426.39

24319.619.4914.1326.38

25321.819.5414.4226.43

26320.219.7314.8326.54

2732020.0515.2126.73

28320.320.4315.4626.97

29321.620.7915.5427.23

30321.521.0715.5127.46

31321.421.2315.4727.63

142321.2915.5127.72

2419.921.3115.6427.75

3421.121.3615.8527.78

4422.621.4916.1227.82

5424.621.7116.4727.88

6424.522.0216.8927.91

7422.222.3917.3327.93

8424.722.7517.7427.93

9421.523.0318.0127.94

10427.423.1818.0827.97

1142523.231828.02

12421.423.2517.8828.11

13426.223.3217.8528.23

14424.223.4617.9928.41

15423.523.6818.2728.6

16426.623.9218.5928.78

17427.824.1618.8628.94

18428.424.3719.0329.08

19429.224.5619.1329.22

20429.824.7619.1829.37

21427.324.9919.2329.52

22425.925.2519.329.68

23426.825.4819.429.86

24426.525.6319.5730.05

25427.425.6719.8430.21

26430.425.6520.2330.28

27429.225.6420.6930.25

28427.525.721.1430.15

29427.625.8421.530.07

30424.926.0321.7530.06

1526.426.221.8830.15

2527.726.321.9530.28

3529.226.332230.42

4531.426.3322.0730.53

5527.626.3622.230.63

6522.426.4922.3830.72

752326.7222.5830.82

852727.0122.7430.93

9530.227.2622.8231.03

10529.827.4422.8631.12

1152727.522.8931.17

12523.427.4722.9531.16

13528.727.3723.0431.08

14529.727.2423.1231

1552527.1423.1430.96

1652927.0923.0731.02

1752727.1122.9331.17

1852927.1722.7531.34

19530.227.2222.5431.46

2052427.2422.3531.46

2152527.2622.2531.36

22522.827.2922.3231.24

23523.327.3622.631.17

24527.227.4523.0431.21

25526.827.5623.5431.35

26526.527.6823.9731.52

27524.227.824.2531.69

2852727.9524.3831.84

29530.228.1224.431.98

30526.228.2724.3432.08

31528.528.3724.2732.13

1628.428.3824.2432.11

262728.324.2732.02

3627.528.1424.3331.88

4628.827.9724.3931.7

5627.827.8724.431.52

662627.8924.3631.39

7627.228.0324.331.39

8628.828.2524.2631.54

9630.328.5224.2531.8

10630.828.7724.2832.12

11628.728.9924.3632.42

12625.629.1724.5332.65

1362629.3324.8232.78

14627.729.4525.2132.84

15627.929.5625.6532.85

16627.829.6626.0232.83

17628.129.7826.2432.81

18628.729.9526.2532.8

19629.530.1726.0732.82

20630.530.425.832.87

21630.730.625.5732.94

22631.330.7425.532.98

23632.430.825.6532.98

24632.230.812632.94

25631.630.826.4632.88

26631.730.826.9132.86

27630.530.8227.2332.9

28629.330.8727.3933.03

29627.330.9427.4133.22

30630.331.0327.3733.43

1731.231.1427.3333.66

2732.131.2727.3533.88

3731.831.427.4834.07

473231.5327.7234.2

5732.531.6428.0634.25

6732.531.728.4534.22

7732.331.7228.7834.17

8731.431.728.9934.13

9731.231.6529.0234.13

10731.831.5928.934.16

11731.531.5428.7234.2

12727.931.5328.5634.25

1372831.5828.4934.31

14728.931.6728.5234.37

15729.631.7928.634.42

16729.431.928.6634.46

17731.231.9628.6734.48

1873331.9628.6534.52

19733.331.9228.6234.6

20731.231.8428.6234.72

21730.231.7728.6334.84

2272831.7328.6334.93

23730.631.728.5834.96

24731.531.6828.4834.95

25733.531.6428.3534.91

26734.331.5628.2334.86

27734.631.4628.1634.81

28734.931.3828.1634.76

29735.131.3328.2134.7

30734.231.3328.2834.65

3173331.3528.3334.58

1829.431.3728.3534.51

2831.231.3928.3334.44

3831.231.4228.3534.38

4829.931.4528.4234.35

5831.831.528.5634.36

6830.531.5328.7234.39

7832.731.5128.8134.43

8829.531.4428.7934.44

983331.3528.6634.4

10830.631.2628.4834.32

1183331.2228.3234.23

12830.531.2428.2134.18

13830.831.3128.1534.19

14830.731.3928.134.24

15830.231.4528.0334.3

1683231.4827.9634.34

1783231.527.9334.34

18831.331.5127.9334.3

19830.631.5327.9934.23

20830.931.5428.0934.17

21832.231.5328.2134.11

22832.831.528.3534.07

23830.731.4528.4934.04

2483131.3928.634.05

25830.231.3128.6734.08

26830.731.2128.6734.14

27830.631.128.634.18

28830.53128.4434.19

29829.730.9228.2334.15

30831.430.8928.0134.07

3183230.927.8533.94

1931.230.9427.8133.78

293130.9827.933.61

393131.0128.0933.44

4932.531.0128.2933.3

593130.9828.4433.17

6931.730.928.4833.08

7931.130.7828.4233.01

893230.6328.332.97

9931.430.4628.1632.95

10929.730.328.0232.91

11932.530.1727.8632.85

12931.530.0527.6732.78

13928.229.9627.4532.7

14929.729.8827.2432.64

1593229.8327.1232.58

1692929.827.0932.52

17931.829.7927.0932.45

18930.429.7727.0632.36

1993029.7226.9432.23

20931.929.6626.7132.08

2193129.5926.4231.92

22932.629.4926.131.81

23930.629.3825.8231.78

2492829.2525.6231.81

25933.129.1225.531.88

2692928.9925.4431.94

27930.828.8625.3731.94

28931.328.7325.2731.89

29931.128.5925.1331.8

3093128.472531.7

11030.528.3824.9231.62

21030.428.3224.9431.52

31031.328.2525.0431.4

41029.928.1725.1731.24

51025.828.0625.2931.04

61028.427.9325.3530.81

71030.827.8225.3730.58

81026.827.7325.3430.4

91027.227.6725.2630.3

101027.227.6325.1630.32

111029.827.625.0430.42

121032.727.5624.9230.52

131027.727.5124.7930.57

141026.527.4324.6330.52

151022.727.3324.4530.39

161024.927.224.2630.24

171026.527.0424.0830.1

181025.526.8923.9630

19102726.7523.8829.92

201026.526.6423.8329.82

211028.326.5423.7829.71

221025.826.4423.7229.58

231026.626.3323.6529.47

24102726.223.5429.4

251028.226.0523.4129.33

261028.425.8823.2329.28

271029.425.6923.0129.23

281028.225.5222.7929.2

29102625.3722.6229.18

30102225.2822.5429.16

311022.525.2422.5529.11

11125.125.2322.5929

21125.625.2422.6128.84

31125.925.2522.5828.65

41126.525.2422.528.47

51126.325.1922.3828.33

6112325.0722.2328.24

71122.124.8822.0128.17

81123.724.6321.7228.06

9112524.3721.3727.92

101124.524.1421.0327.76

111123.823.9720.7327.64

121124.523.8720.4727.58

131124.523.8220.2527.58

141119.323.7720.0527.59

15111923.7119.8827.57

161122.823.619.7227.52

171124.923.4819.5627.44

181125.223.3419.3627.32

191123.523.1919.1127.16

20112323.0318.826.95

211121.922.8618.4526.7

221120.822.6818.1126.46

231116.922.4817.8526.25

24111522.2717.7226.08

25111922.0517.6725.93

261122.121.8117.6125.76

271120.921.5517.4725.53

281120.621.2917.2325.22

291121.621.0416.9324.88

301121.520.8416.6724.59

11222.620.7316.524.41

21222.420.716.4524.39

3122320.7216.4924.51

4122520.7416.5724.69

51225.120.7316.624.89

61225.120.6716.5625.02

71221.820.5716.425.06

81220.720.4616.1324.99

91218.120.3515.7224.81

10121520.2415.2224.56

11121520.1214.7224.32

121210.520.0114.3524.15

13127.419.8914.2124.08

14127.519.7814.2824.07

151211.219.6714.4724.08

161211.819.5514.6724.04

171212.519.4214.8123.94

18121519.314.8623.81

191218.519.2314.8423.73

201214.919.2214.7523.72

211215.619.2614.5923.78

221213.519.2814.3823.85

231214.419.2514.1423.91

241215.619.1413.9123.92

251217.118.9613.6823.89

261218.118.7413.4423.81

271219.518.5413.1723.68

281214.418.3712.8623.51

291214.518.2312.5623.36

301215.418.1412.3423.25

311217.218.1112.2623.21

daymth95

111710.174.0814.82

2113.510.174.1214.79

3112.310.164.214.72

4111.310.174.2914.68

5110.510.184.3414.71

611310.184.3514.81

7114.310.134.3514.94

8115.210.024.3315.06

9114.79.864.3215.12

10112.69.674.315.14

11112.29.474.2715.1

12110.89.34.2415.01

131129.194.1714.85

14112.99.164.0814.65

15113.59.253.9714.43

16111.39.443.8914.23

17111.39.713.914.09

1818.19.994.0214.01

1911110.264.2214

20110.410.474.4614.07

21111.110.654.714.23

2218.410.84.9414.48

2317.110.925.1314.78

24111.211.025.2215.05

25113.811.095.1815.26

26113.811.115.0315.39

2711311.054.8615.44

28110.210.894.7315.43

2919.110.614.6415.36

30113.510.274.5915.27

31113.89.934.5715.17

1214.79.694.6115.11

2217.49.584.7115.08

3216.39.624.8615.08

4216.89.755.0215.12

5217.29.925.0915.21

6217.110.115.0215.38

7214.510.34.8115.6

8211.610.54.5315.84

9210.210.694.3116.04

1029.810.864.2716.15

1129.611.044.4716.18

12210.811.214.8516.16

13212.111.385.316.16

14212.111.525.7216.23

15212.611.656.0716.37

16211.311.776.3716.52

17211.611.96.6316.64

18211.812.026.8416.73

19210.512.126.9616.79

2027.812.176.9816.83

2126.912.176.9416.82

2227.812.16.8616.76

232611.996.816.63

2428.211.856.7616.49

25211.411.736.7616.35

26212.511.656.7516.21

27213.811.646.7216.05

28214.611.696.6315.9

1313.911.926.2615.88

2314.612.076.0716.09

3315.612.22616.44

4315.112.356.1216.86

5316.212.486.4517.25

6316.912.596.917.54

7313.212.77.3917.68

8312.912.817.8517.68

9314.212.938.2617.6

10315.613.078.617.53

11314.513.218.8717.55

12314.313.369.0617.72

13312.613.519.218

14312.813.639.3118.32

1531113.749.4318.56

16310.413.869.5918.63

1738.614.019.8118.54

18314.414.1710.0818.37

19315.314.3110.3418.22

20316.914.3610.5218.16

21315.614.3210.5818.19

2231514.1910.5118.26

2331514.0510.3718.32

24313.613.9810.2718.33

25313.714.0310.2618.32

26315.314.2110.3718.36

27314.314.4910.5518.52

28315.614.810.7518.86

29316.315.0710.9419.33

30317.715.2511.0819.83

31314.415.3511.1920.24

1414.615.411.2920.49

2414.515.4711.4120.63

3412.115.5911.620.73

4415.715.7911.8620.86

5418.116.0512.1721

6417.316.3612.4421.11

7417.116.6812.6221.17

8419.616.9612.6821.21

9418.217.1712.6621.28

10419.617.312.6221.42

11418.417.3812.6321.63

12418.217.4712.7221.89

13420.117.612.9122.19

14419.117.7713.1922.46

15419.417.9413.5522.66

16420.418.113.9522.77

1742218.2214.3422.79

18422.918.3214.6822.76

19423.118.4214.9422.71

20421.818.5315.1222.68

21419.818.6615.2122.69

22420.918.8215.2422.75

23420.819.0115.2722.87

2442119.2215.3423.01

25421.819.4315.523.16

26423.819.6115.7423.26

27423.219.7616.0323.31

28423.819.9216.3123.31

29422.720.116.5323.32

30421.520.316.6423.39

1521.220.4916.6323.53

2523.120.6316.5223.73

3523.820.7216.4223.94

452420.7816.4124.12

5522.220.8316.5424.22

6519.620.916.824.28

7518.221.0317.1324.33

8520.921.2217.4824.42

9523.421.4317.7824.57

10525.221.6418.0224.77

11523.421.7818.1724.96

12521.421.8518.2425.08

13521.321.8618.2425.09

14523.521.8318.2125.02

15522.921.7918.1424.91

1652421.7818.0524.81

17523.821.817.9324.76

18524.221.8317.824.75

19523.521.8617.7124.77

20519.821.8617.724.76

21519.821.8817.824.72

22520.821.9317.9924.64

23519.722.0418.2624.57

24521.222.2118.5824.54

25522.922.4218.9124.59

26522.622.6319.224.7

27521.522.8319.424.87

28521.523.0319.525.07

29523.123.1919.5125.29

30522.423.3119.4625.49

31522.723.3819.3925.64

1623.523.419.3325.71

2623.123.3619.2925.68

362423.2919.2825.56

4624.223.2419.3425.39

5624.623.2119.4725.26

6624.223.2119.6925.2

7623.923.2619.9625.25

8624.323.3420.2425.39

9624.923.4520.4625.57

10625.823.5720.6125.77

11625.623.6920.6825.95

12622.223.8220.7226.09

13621.523.9420.7926.2

14621.824.0820.9226.28

15622.624.2521.1326.34

1662424.4521.426.4

17624.424.6821.6726.47

18625.124.8821.8726.53

19624.825.0521.9626.59

20625.725.1621.9826.65

2162625.221.9726.69

22625.225.222.0126.71

23625.625.1722.1626.71

24625.425.1322.4126.71

25625.425.1122.7126.7

26625.525.112326.7

27626.525.1323.2526.72

28625.225.1623.4326.73

29624.825.2123.5426.75

30624.825.2623.5926.78

1723.525.3123.6126.82

2725.925.3823.6226.86

3725.725.4423.6526.89

4725.825.5223.6926.92

5726.225.6123.7626.92

6726.425.6923.8226.92

7726.225.7623.8626.91

8726.225.823.8726.91

9726.325.8123.8626.9

10726.425.7823.8326.89

11726.725.7423.8126.88

12724.325.723.826.86

13724.425.6623.826.85

14724.325.6423.826.84

15723.825.6323.7726.86

16724.625.6323.7226.9

17724.925.6323.6526.95

18725.425.6423.5727

19726.525.6623.5327.05

20725.325.6723.5327.1

21725.825.6623.5627.13

22724.825.6323.627.14

2372425.5723.6127.13

24725.525.4923.5927.11

25725.425.3923.5427.09

2672625.323.4627.09

27726.525.2523.3827.11

28726.525.2323.3127.15

2972725.2423.2627.19

30727.325.2723.2427.21

31723.525.3223.2527.21

1823.825.3923.327.18

2824.525.4623.3827.12

3826.125.5523.4727.06

4825.825.6323.5727.02

5825.925.6923.6627

682625.7223.7127

7825.225.7223.727.03

8825.225.6723.6527.07

9826.125.6123.5927.12

10827.125.5523.5427.15

11825.825.5123.5627.15

12825.625.523.6427.12

13825.625.5123.7527.08

14825.625.5323.8427.05

15825.625.5423.8827.05

16826.325.5423.8827.07

17827.425.5323.8627.08

1882625.5123.8227.08

19825.425.523.7827.05

20826.325.523.7327.01

21825.525.4923.6626.97

22825.925.4823.6126.93

2382625.4523.5826.88

24826.625.4223.5926.81

25824.925.3723.6226.73

2682625.3123.6326.66

27826.325.2623.626.59

28826.325.223.5326.54

29824.425.1423.4326.52

30824.725.123.3426.5

31823.925.0623.2626.49

1925.725.0323.2326.48

2924.42523.2426.46

3924.724.9723.2826.43

4924.924.9423.3526.4

5925.324.8923.426.36

6925.324.8323.4126.3

7925.524.7423.3426.24

8924.624.6423.1726.17

9925.524.5322.8926.11

10924.424.4222.5526.06

11924.424.3322.1626.01

12924.424.2521.7725.94

13923.924.1921.3825.85

14923.824.1321.0125.76

15922.724.0820.6525.67

16923.524.0220.3225.59

17922.723.9420.0325.52

18923.923.8619.8125.44

19924.423.7619.6625.35

20924.623.6519.5925.26

21925.323.5319.5825.18

22923.723.3919.5925.11

23922.123.2619.6125.07

24922.223.1319.5925.03

25924.723.0119.5224.99

26924.922.9119.3924.94

27924.422.8119.2224.88

28924.822.7419.0424.84

29924.622.6818.8424.82

30924.722.6418.6324.84

11024.722.5918.3824.9

21024.722.518.1124.96

31024.522.3517.8524.98

41023.522.1517.6224.94

51023.521.9117.4224.82

61024.821.6717.2324.64

71024.421.4317.0524.44

81023.621.2316.8624.25

91019.321.0716.6624.09

101021.720.9716.4723.96

111022.920.9216.323.87

121023.120.8916.223.78

131024.520.8316.223.69

141022.320.7116.2723.59

151020.220.5216.3523.48

161020.620.3216.3223.37

171020.220.1516.1223.29

181020.820.0315.7823.24

191021.419.9415.3723.21

201021.419.8515.0223.18

211019.919.7314.7623.13

221022.219.614.5823.04

231023.419.4814.4622.89

24102419.3714.3322.72

251021.819.2614.222.55

261021.319.0914.0522.41

271021.518.8113.8722.29

281022.918.4413.6622.17

291021.918.0313.4622.02

301017.517.6713.3121.84

311014.317.4113.2521.63

11116.417.2613.2521.43

21115.217.2213.2621.29

31117.517.2413.2721.21

41117.917.2913.2421.2

51120.417.3513.221.22

61119.317.413.1221.24

71117.817.4112.9821.25

81117.417.3612.7421.22

91117.417.2512.4321.17

101119.917.0912.0921.11

111119.516.9211.821.06

121119.516.7611.5720.99

131119.316.6511.3920.9

141115.816.5711.2220.76

151114.416.4911.0320.58

161115.416.3610.8220.36

171114.316.1710.620.12

18111615.9110.4119.87

191118.215.6210.2819.63

201117.315.3210.1819.41

211116.515.0310.0819.22

221116.214.749.9519.05

23111014.479.7918.91

24*114.714.29.5918.79

25*117.113.929.3518.71

26111013.639.0518.67

271110.313.338.6918.68

28111013.048.3118.73

291112.412.757.9418.76

301113.812.497.6118.77

11215.912.287.3418.73

21215.512.167.1318.66

31214.512.166.9918.56

41218.212.246.9318.44

51218.512.366.9518.28

61219.812.456.9918.04

7121812.456.9817.74

81217.612.376.8617.41

91212.112.216.6317.07

101210.712.026.316.76

11129.511.825.9316.5

12127.111.675.5316.32

13125.911.575.0916.24

14*123.911.544.6316.28

15*122.711.554.2416.43

16*122.211.554.0416.64

17*122.511.524.1116.87

18*124.111.444.4317.06

19126.711.314.8617.18

201210.211.155.2417.18

21128.811.025.4517.08

22*123.110.975.4616.9

23*123.611.015.3616.68

24*124.511.15.2416.46

25125.611.165.1516.3

26128.711.115.0516.23

271212.910.964.8816.28

28127.910.754.6116.45

29*121.810.554.316.66

30*123.110.424.0516.84

31*123.410.383.9516.91

T59316-1975

5

95

5%50mm/d30mm/day

More Extreme events

Some Extremes may not necessarily be induced by extremes in meteorological variables (precipitation, temperature) but may be the result of an accumulation of moderate weather or climate events.

:0.40.80.4

105 Ci=0.5*Ci 200, Ci=0. :CIZ3 (30)Z9(90

PalmerPalmer

Palmer

CEI1

5 (Karl, et al, 1996)

2010

005353590%

.

Chart1

380

190

200

140

405

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250

650

440

310

420

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680

685

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290

290

155

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210

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320

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355

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580

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480

480

555

470

580

610

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525

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1876

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2882

1975

3007

1962

2045

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1717.43

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1565.9

2101.3

2516.9

2361.7

3100

2490

5000

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Chart2

380

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650

440

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680

685

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290

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1876

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1962

2045

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Sheet1

1949380

1950190

1951200

1952140

1953405

1954665

1955250

1956650

1957440

1958310

1959420

1960510

1961680

1962685

19631045

1964575

1965290

1966290

1967155

1968190

1969210

1970155

1971320

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1975495

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1980510

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1985580

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1988730

1989525

1990616

19911216

1992854

1993994

19941876

19951863

19962882

19971975

19983007

19991962

20002045

20011942

20021717.43

20031884.2

20041565.9

20052101.3

20062516.9

20072361.7

20083100

20092490

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Sheet1

380

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440

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680

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290

290

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1565.9

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Sheet2

Sheet3

The identification and definition of extreme events that are relevant from a risk management perspective is complex and depends on the stakeholders involved .

,:,

Thru calculation of The absolute vale of I becomes bigger, and atmospheric condition is more unstable

Atmospheric stability during summer 1958~2001 in WNW China 80E~90E(Unit: K/hPa. Shaded is greater than 0.04K/hPa

Changes of precipitation at different intensity category and related SLP for 1954~1978 and 1979~2003 periods

1

0.10.160.16

0.130.240.24

0.690.050.05

0.90.080.08

0.930.150.15

1.270.170.17

1.440.340.34

1.960.540.54

2.743.853.85

4.243.753.75

min

mean

max

mm

Sheet1

min0.10.130.690.90.931.271.441.962.744.24

mean0.160.240.050.080.150.170.340.543.853.75

max0.160.240.050.080.150.170.340.543.853.75

min868.15867.21871.09867.57870.83867.71870.19866.49868.29867.8

mean7.477.215.155.355.175.297.115.914.313.8

max7.477.215.155.355.655.117.115.914.313.8

Sheet1

000

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000

000

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000

000

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000

000

000

min

mean

max

Sheet2

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000

000

000

000

000

000

000

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000

000

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min

mean

max

Sheet3

2

868.157.477.47

867.217.217.21

871.095.155.15

867.575.355.35

870.835.175.65

867.715.295.11

870.197.117.11

866.495.915.91

868.294.314.31

867.83.83.8

min

mean

max

hPa

Sheet1

min0.10.130.690.90.931.271.441.962.744.24

mean0.160.240.050.080.150.170.340.543.853.75

max0.160.240.050.080.150.170.340.543.853.75

min868.15867.21871.09867.57870.83867.71870.19866.49868.29867.8

mean7.477.215.155.355.175.297.115.914.313.8

max7.477.215.155.355.655.117.115.914.313.8

Sheet1

000

000

000

000

000

000

000

000

000

000

000

000

000

000

min

mean

max

Sheet2

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000

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000

000

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000

000

000

min

mean

max

Sheet3

200381115:32:0(). . 10450 ... 50 ... 50

?

Extreme Heat WaveSummer 2003Europe:Heat waves are increasing: an example

35

Chart1

17.3

16.1

12.5

15.8

9.1

15.5

18.4

11.3

10.3

12.1

17.2

12

6.1

7.6

8.3

11.6

11.2

19.2

15.4

11.7

13.8

9.3

15.7

13.2

12.8

12.6

9.9

18.1

14.5

19.3

13.2

15.5

9.5

13.7

12.4

9.6

4

19.2

6.6

15.4

13.7

9.6

24.3

350621-0820

hatmgefz12219512003621--820

1951-99918

1952-99926

195326.143

19548.947

19555.652

19561656

195711.565

195810.170

195910.273

19608.974

196117.3101

196216.1101

196312.5101

196415.8101

19659.1101

196615.5101

196718.4100

196811.3100

196910.3101

197012.1101

197117.2101

197212101

19736.1101

19747.6101

19758.3101

197611.6101

197711.2101

197819.2101

197915.4101

198011.7104

198113.8101

19829.3101

198315.7105

198413.2105

198512.8105

198612.6105

19879.9105

198818.1105

198914.5105

199019.3105

199113.2104

199215.5104

19939.5105

199413.7105

199512.4106

19969.6106

19974106

199819.2106

19996.6105

200015.4105

200113.7104

20029.6104

200324.389

350621-0820

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

1

0.00080850.00111430.0010286

0.00071860.00173430.0016259

0.00125760.00264190.00265

0.00206610.00398980.0042984

0.00350340.00691480.0069709

0.00754580.01059010.0103306

0.01176790.01480010.0145077

0.01715770.01916290.0198437

0.02155950.02662130.0256558

0.026590.03335190.0341358

0.03584260.04480920.0437972

0.04500540.06090780.0587361

0.06180380.08671140.078984

0.0813870.11557920.1055605

0.1138160.12791710.1296577

0.12055340.12564360.1341942

0.11201940.11537250.1219727

0.10007190.09017550.0977722

0.08228530.05938460.0612244

0.06099530.03221520.0297296

0.04249010.01383410.011988

0.02811710.00443460.0038582

0.01527130.00113220.0006692

0.00503050.00021570.0000674

0.0016170.00001350

0.000179700

000

000

2003

1961-1980

1981-2000

1-50pro

0.000004600000

0.000015100000

0.000028500000

0.00006610.00001850000

0.000132700000

0.00025570.00023990000

0.00044110.00025830000

0.00073060.00031370000

0.00118380.00088570000

0.00189020.0015870.000002000.0000045

0.00291420.00249110.00000200.00000450

0.00412150.00435490.000006100.00000450.000009

0.00536680.00516680.000006100.00001350

0.00686330.00651390.000034700.00002250.0000449

0.00823160.00760260.000075600.00007190.0000943

0.01003150.00906040.00022460.00026950.00023810.000215616

0.0118710.01134850.00036960.00026950.00037740.000372817

0.01426210.01350750.00106380.00080850.00111430.001028618

0.01682860.01747490.00166010.00071860.00173430.001625919

0.02054670.02020590.00260960.00125760.00264190.0026520

0.02460950.02559420.00406750.00206610.00398980.004298421

0.03020440.03247710.00683640.00350340.00691480.006970922

0.03644040.04072560.01029950.00754580.01059010.010330623

0.0431810.04452690.01450990.01176790.01480010.014507724

0.05158510.05373490.01939010.01715770.01916290.019843725

0.05877180.06279520.02598150.02155950.02662130.025655826

0.0649730.06626440.03367540.026590.03335190.034135827

0.06894550.06988120.04421380.03584260.04480920.043797228

0.07171830.06916150.05948540.04500540.06090780.058736129

0.07409720.07026870.082020.06180380.08671140.07898430

0.07553010.06569240.10947370.0813870.11557920.105560531

0.07343310.06574770.12839620.1138160.12791710.129657732

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0.05492230.05011810.11881760.11201940.11537250.121972734

0.04248930.04076250.09418170.10007190.09017550.097772235

0.02803430.03125920.06105970.08228530.05938460.061224436

0.01602930.02177440.03178870.06099530.03221520.029729637

0.00785880.01433790.01366460.04249010.01383410.01198838

0.00340760.00828540.00473520.02811710.00443460.003858239

0.00134030.00429950.00119660.01527130.00113220.000669240

0.00054740.00136550.00024910.00503050.00021570.000067441

0.00027160.00042440.00004290.0016170.0000135042

0.00012140.00009230.00000410.00017970043

0.00006030000044

0.00002050000045

0.000013800000

0.000001700000

0.000001300000

000000

000000

61-040361-040361-8081-2000

1-50pro

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000

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000

000

000

000

000

000

000

000

000

000

000

2003

1961-1980

1981-2000

20037500hPa 17 42 51 217

POT peaks-over-threshold is used to represent the behaviour of exceedances above a high threshold and the threshold crossing process. Under suitable conditions, and using a high enough threshold, extremes identified in this way will have a generalized Pareto, or GP, distribution (see, for example, Smith, 2002).

block maximum method. Statistical theory indicates that the Generalized Extreme Value, or GEV, distribution is appropriate for the block maxima when blocks are sufficiently large. In its general form, the GEV distribution has three parameters: location, scale, and shape.

**