# 第一篇 宏观经济的长期模型

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• 20

• CSTCIGNX

• GDP C I G NX GDP= NX =XM Y =GDP = C I G NX

• 1998GDP

Chart7

36921

30396

9486

3050

1998GDP

1998GDP

Sheet1

1998GDP

36921

30396

9486

3050

Sheet1

1998GDP

1998GDP

Sheet2

Sheet3

• 1996GDP

%GDP75760515201116014070-9901006814.718.6-1.3

Chart9

51520

11160

14070

-990

Sheet1

51520

11160

14070

-990

Sheet1

Sheet2

Sheet3

• , = = ==+ +++= + ++=

• 1996GDP

• GDP 1. 2. 3. GDP . . . .

• GDPGDPGDPGDPGDPGDP

• Variale-Weight Price Index)Paasche Index)

• Fixd-weight Price Index) (Laspeyres Index)

GDP(Price Deflator Index)Consumer Price Index) (PPI)

• GDPGDPGDPGDPGDPGDP GDPCPI PPI GDPCPIPPI

• PttPt+1t+1t+1t+1

• =/100%=/100%

• GDP GDP=3% 23%GDP1%GDP2%8%6%GDP GDP=3%26%8%=7%GDP47%2

• Y YF(KL)

• Y=F(KL) >0,

A

• GDP( Potential GDP)

• YF(KL)YKL W r P

• ()(R)()(C)

R=PY=PF(K,L) C=WL+rK =RC=PF(K,L)WLrK PWrLK

• ()

• SDE(W/P)0

• Kd/dK=0 PFK(K,L)r =0PMPK= r MPK= r/P

• MPLMPK=YMPLLMPKK Y=MPLL+MPKK+

• F(K,L) YF(KL)=MPLL+MPKK Y

• GDP(C)(I)(G)(NX)NX GDPY=C+I+G

• 1. CYT C=C(YT) C=a+b(YT) ab,bY

• C

• 2. 12( i ) (r =i)3 I=I (r)3.

• Y=C+I+G=C(Y-T)+I(r)+

• 1.2.r*

• 1.

• S1 S2

• 2.

• I1 I2 Sr1 r2

• I1 I2 r1 r2