Финансы в проектах

  • View
    58

  • Download
    0

Embed Size (px)

DESCRIPTION

Евгений Плаксенков. Финансы в проектах. 2012. Факторы стоимости капитала. Инфляция. Риск. Альтернатива. Средне- взвешенная стоимость капитала. Стоимость собственных средств. Их доля в структуре капитала. Их доля в структуре капитала. Стоимость заемных средств. х. х. =. - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

Text of Финансы в проектах

  • 2012

  • WACC(Weighted Average Cost of Capital) - , +

  • -

  • () ()

    :

    ,

  • ,

    ,

  • ( , , , ..)

  • 1

    01500

    11300

    2800

    3200

    40

    ( )

    0123456

    (.)48,00055,00059,00055,00049,000

    ( . )

    0123456

    44.044.0044.0044.0044.00

    0123456

    2,112,0002,420,0002,596,0002,420,0002,156,000

    (. )

    0123456

    1(8.00)(8.00)(8.00)(8.00)(8.00)

    2(5.00)(5.00)(5.00)(5.00)(5.00)

    3(4.50)(4.50)(4.50)(4.50)(4.50)

    4(2.50)(2.50)(2.50)(2.50)(2.50)

    (20.00)(20.00)(20.00)(20.00)(20.00)

    0123456

    (960,000)(1,100,000)(1,180,000)(1,100,000)(980,000)

    0123456

    (4)-4.0-4.0-4.0-4.0

    (192,000)(220,000)(236,000)(220,000)(196,000)

    ( )(42,000)(42,000)(42,000)(42,000)(42,000)

    (60,000)(68,000)(75,000)(70,000)(70,000)

    (294,000)(330,000)(353,000)(332,000)(308,000)

    0123456

    1212121212

    ( ) (750)(750)(750)(750)(750)

    ( ) (9,000)(9,000)(9,000)(9,000)(9,000)

    44444

    ( ) (900)(900)(900)(900)(900)

    ( ) (10,800)(10,800)(10,800)(10,800)(10,800)

    0123456

    / (108,000)(108,000)(108,000)(108,000)(108,000)

    / (43,200)(43,200)(43,200)(43,200)(43,200)

    / ( )(151,200)(151,200)(151,200)(151,200)(151,200)

    ()

    0123456

    (160,000)(160,000)(160,000)(160,000)(160,000)

    (50,000)(50,000)(50,000)(50,000)(50,000)

    , , (80,000)(80,000)(80,000)(80,000)(80,000)

    (290,000)(290,000)(290,000)(290,000)(290,000)

    0123456

    ( )(60,000)(60,000)(60,000)(60,000)(60,000)

    (, )(50,000)(50,000)(50,000)(50,000)(50,000)

    (110,000)(110,000)(110,000)(110,000)(110,000)

    0123456

    (960,000)(1,100,000)(1,180,000)(1,100,000)(980,000)

    ( /)(151,200)(151,200)(151,200)(151,200)(151,200)

    () (290,000)(290,000)(290,000)(290,000)(290,000)

    (110,000)(110,000)(110,000)(110,000)(110,000)

    (294,000)(330,000)(353,000)(332,000)(308,000)

    (1,805,200)(1,981,200)(2,084,200)(1,983,200)(1,839,200)

    ( )

    0123456

    (800,000)

    80,000

    (40,000)

    (800,000)0000040,000

    15%

    0123456

    800,000

    (120,000)(90,000)(30,000)

    (200,000)(400,000)(200,000)

    800,000600,000200,0000

    0123456

    ( )(176,000)(201,667)(216,333)(201,667)(179,667)0

    176,000201,667216,333201,667179,667

    (176,000)(25,667)(14,667)14,66722,000179,667

    0123456

    80,00091,66798,33391,66781,6670

    (80,000)(91,667)(98,333)(91,667)(81,667)

    21,10021,10021,10021,10021,1000

    (21,100)(21,100)(21,100)(21,100)(21,100)

    101,10011,6676,667(6,667)(10,000)(102,767)

    0123456

    2,112,0002,420,0002,596,0002,420,0002,156,000

    (960,000)(1,100,000)(1,180,000)(1,100,000)(980,000)

    (192,000)(220,000)(236,000)(220,000)(196,000)

    () 960,0001,100,0001,180,0001,100,000980,000

    ( )(130,000)(130,000)(130,000)(130,000)(130,000)

    (151,200)(151,200)(151,200)(151,200)(151,200)

    0(110,000)(110,000)(110,000)(110,000)(110,000)

    (102,000)(110,000)(117,000)(112,000)(112,000)

    , (EBITDA)466,800598,800671,800596,800476,800

    (160,000)(160,000)(160,000)(160,000)(160,000)

    40,000

    (EBIT)0306,800438,800511,800436,800316,80040,000

    0(120,000)(90,000)(30,000)000

    186,800348,800481,800436,800316,80040,000

    (44,832)(83,712)(115,632)(104,832)(76,032)(9,600)

    ()141,968265,088366,168331,968240,76830,400

    () 0141,968265,088366,168331,968240,76830,400

    0141,968407,056773,2241,105,1921,345,9601,376,360

    0123456

    ()

    02,112,0002,420,0002,596,0002,420,0002,156,0000

    0(960,000)(1,100,000)(1,180,000)(1,100,000)(980,000)0

    0(151,200)(151,200)(151,200)(151,200)(151,200)0

    () ( )0(130,000)(130,000)(130,000)(130,000)(130,000)0

    0(110,000)(110,000)(110,000)(110,000)(110,000)0

    (294,000)(330,000)(353,000)(332,000)(308,000)

    0(44,832)(83,712)(115,632)(104,832)(76,032)(9,600)

    0(176,000)(25,667)(14,667)14,66722,000179,667

    0101,10011,6676,667(6,667)(10,000)(102,767)

    0347,068501,088548,168499,968412,76867,300

    (800,000)

    40,000

    (800,000)0000040,000

    800,000000000

    0(200,000)(400,000)(200,000)000

    0(120,000)(90,000)(30,000)000

    800,000(320,000)(490,000)(230,000)000

    027,06811,088318,168499,968412,768107,300

    027,06838,156356,324856,2921,269,0601,376,360

    20%

    0123456

    ( )(800,000)347,068501,088548,168499,968412,768107,300

    (800,000)(452,932)48,156596,3241,096,2921,509,0601,616,360

    (800,000)289,223347,978317,227241,111165,88235,935

    (800,000)(510,777)(162,799)154,428395,539561,421597,356

    NPV597,356

    IRR48.37%

    PBP1.91

    DPBP2.51

    PI1.75

    NPV

    0%15%30%45%60%75%90%105%

    NPV1,616,360.00778,587.86321,437.8046,539.10-131,465.66-253,580.66-341,292.38-406,678.61

    0123456

    Current Ratio (ca/cl) 2.012.134.799.3814.10

    Interest Coverage(%) 1.182.9512.210.000.00

    ROS (/ )7%11%14%14%11%

    ROA ( / )17%37%41%27%17%

    0123456

    ()027,06838,156356,324856,2921,269,0601,376,360

    ( )0176,000201,667216,333201,667179,6670

    800,000800,000800,000800,000800,000800,0000

    0(160,000)(320,000)(480,000)(640,000)(800,000)

    800,000843,068719,823892,6571,217,9591,448,7271,376,360

    0141,968407,056773,2241,105,1921,345,9601,376,360

    800,000600,000200,0000000

    21,10021,10021,10021,10021,1000

    080,00091,66798,33391,66781,6670

    800,000843,068719,823892,6571,217,9591,448,7271,376,360

    0000000

    01234

    1,500200500600200

    1,5001,3008002000

    &R

    &P&R

    -960000

    -151200

    -290000

    -110000

    -294000

    2112000466800306800141968

    2420000598800438800265088

    2596000671800511800366168

    2420000596800436800331968

    2156000476800316800240768

    , (EBITDA)

    (EBIT)

    ()

    2

    1616360

    778587.861337328

    321437.79504016

    46539.097295817

    -131465.656967163

    -253580.663975045

    NPV

    NPV

    IRR

    1

    0

    1-960000-151200-290000-110000-294000

    2-1100000-151200-290000-110000-330000

    3-1180000-151200-290000-110000-353000

    4-1100000-151200-290000-110000-332000

    5-980000-151200-290000-110000-308000

    ( /)

    ()

    2

    -960000

    -151200

    -290000

    -110000

    -294000

    800000

    600000

    200000

    0

    4

    5

    6

    &R

    &R..

    1760760

    865066.809379448

    378600.847193249

    87190.1850355327

    -100913.577575684

    -229619.636172003

    -321862.934229672

    -390499.79987819

    NPV

    NPV

    NPV

    -800000-800000

    -442112-501760

    77696-140782.222222222

    655784193759.444444444

    1187672450264.074074074

    1632360628974.20781893

    1760760671975.108024691

    -800000-800000

    -442112-501760

    77696-140782.222222222

    655784193759.444444444

    1187672450264.074074074

    1632360628974.20781893

    1760760671975.108024691

  • (-)

  • () ()

  • Payback Period (PBP)

    (Advantages):(Disadvantages):

  • Discounted Payback Period (DPBP) (Advantages):(Disadvantages):

  • Profitability Index (PI) (Advantages):(Disadvantages):

  • Net Present Value (NPV) (Advantages):(Disadvantages):

  • Internal Rate of Return (IRR)NPV025%IRR

  • Internal Rate of Return (IRR) ( )(Advantages):(Disadvantages):

  • PBPDPBPINPV

    5

    -800000-800000

    -442112-501760

    77696-140782.222222222

    655784193759.444444444

    1187672450264.074074074

    1632360628974.20781893

    1760760671975.108024691

    0123456

    (.)48,00054,00059,00055,00049,000

    44.044.0044.0044.0044.00

    2,112,0002,376,0002,596,0002,420,0002,156,000

    0123456

    1 ( )(8.00)(8.00)(8.00)(8.00)(8.00)

    2 ( )(5.00)(5.00)(5.00)(5.00)(5.00)

    3 ( )(4.50)(4.50)(4.50)(4.50)(4.50)

    4 ( )(2.50)(2.50)(2.50)(2.50)(2.50)

    (20.00)(20.00)(20.00)(20.00)(20.00)

    (960,000)(1,080,000)(1,180,000)(1,100,000)(980,000)

    0123456

    (4)-4.0-4.0-4.0-4.0

    (192,000)(216,000)(236,000)(220,000)(196,000)

    (60,000)(68,000)(75,000)(70,000)(70,000)

    (252,000)(284,000)(311,000)(290,000)(266,000)

    0123456

    1212121212

    ( )(750)(750)(750)(750)(750)

    (9,000)(9,000)(9,000)(9,000)(9,000)

    / (108,000)(108,000)(108,000)(108,000)(108,000)

    44444

    ( )(900)(900)(900)(900)(900)

    (3,600)(3,600)(3,600)(3,600)(3,600)

    / (43,200)(43,200)(43,200)(43,200)(43,200)

    / ( )(151,200)(151,200)(151,200)(151,200)(151,200)

    ()

    0123456

    (160,000)(160,000)(160,000)(160,000)(160,000)

    (50,000)(50,000)(50,000)(50,000)(50,000)

    , , (80,000)(80,000)(80,000)(80,000)(80,000)

    (290,000)(290,000)(290,000)(290,000)(290,000)

    0123456

    ( )(60,000)(60,000)(60,000)(60,000)(60,000)

    ( , )(50,000)(50,000)(50,000)(50,000)(50,000)

    (110,000)(110,000)(110,000)(110,000)(110,000)

    0123456

    (960,000)(1,080,000)(1,180,000)(1,100,000)(980,000)

    ( /)(151