- DBGuide.netATE TRADE PROMOTION PLANNING & OPT g ration Non-Oracle Applications • Store inventory • Promotional plans • Store replen. rules • Store

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수요기반(Demand Driven)의선진 Demand management솔루션수요기반(Demand-Driven)의선진 Demand management 솔루션도입을통한정확한수요관리

장필수한국오라클

SCM Value Chain

Supplier Supply Base OEMs

Distributors &OEMs

Contract Mfg (EMS) / Original Design Mfg (ODM)

Distributors &Channel Partners

Component Mfg WebDi tDirect

Configure& Package

VAR /Retail

Distribution& Retail Channels

Customers

© 2008 Oracle Corporation – Proprietary and Confidential

Demand Driven Adaptive PlanningThe demand driven company runs on real time informationThe demand driven company runs on real-time information

Demand Driven leaders have:Demand Supply Demand Driven leaders have:• 15% less inventory• 17% stronger order

fulfillment

Demand Supply

ShapeDemand fulfillment

• 35% shorter cash-to-cashcycle times

Demand

Which translates to:• 60% better profit margins

Sense Demand Respond to

• 65% better EPS • 2-3X the ROA

Respond toDemand

Source: AMR Benchmark

Product


Oracle Demand Driven Adaptive PlanningReal time demand sensing and collaborative consensus forecasting

• Eliminate decision making latency by focusing

Real-time demand sensing and collaborative consensus forecasting

g y y gon excellence in demand visibility

– Sense demand more frequently and closer to the point of consumption– Replace spreadsheets with one number demand management -

Collaborate with all constituentsCollaborate with all constituents

• Improve your forecast accuracy– Use advanced analytics and statistics

• Shape demand– Promotion excellence and decomposition– Leverage granular demand signals (customer, channel, store, shelf)e e age g a u a de a d s g a s (custo e , c a e , sto e, s e )– Identify and simulate cross selling opportunities

• Evolve to real-time S&OPProfitable demand response– Profitable demand response

– Identify supply side opportunities– Define and monitor customer based metrics– Get real time visibility to sales tactics (price breaks, promotions, deals)


Real Time Sales & Operations Planning

Sense demand real-timeSense demand real timeDemand Signal RepositoriesDemand Management & Advanced ForecastingDemand Management & Advanced Forecasting


Evolving Consumer Supply Chain

Traditional View of Relationship Emerging Relationship

ConsumerGoodsMfg.

RetailerConsumer

GoodsMfg.

Retailer

sharedshared

I d t T d• Manage promotion spending focused

on volume lift

• Optimized promotional spend focused

on total volume

Industry Trends

on volume lift

• Distribution Center level planning

Retailer owns category plan

on total volume

• Store level planning

Collaborative category management• Retailer owns category plan

• Separate demand plans for

manufacturer and retailer

• Collaborative category management

• Shared plans


manufacturer and retailer

Reach Downstream to Cut The Noise

Manufacturer OEM Retailer/Distributor Consumer

Sale

s

TimeSa

les

Time

Sale

s

TimeSales InventoriesForecasts

POS DataInventoriesForecasts


Oracle DSR Solution Concept

• POS sales• Price

Retail Store Data DEMAND SIGNAL REPOSITORY

UR

E

AG

EYZ

E

ON

DR

ATE TRADE PROMOTION PLANNING & OPT

grat

ion

Non-Oracle Applications

• Store inventory• Promotional plans• Store replen. rules• Store forecasts • Data sources centrally cleansed,

harmonized and aggregated

CA

PTU

MA

NA

AN

ALY

RES

POIN

TEG

R

SALES & OPERATIONS PLANNING

SUPPLY & DISTRIBUTION PLANNING

-Bas

ed In

teg

gg g• Pre-built dashboards and reports• Powerful BI capabilities • “Sense & Respond” event

management

Retail DC/ Distributor Data

• DC shipments• DC inventory DEMANTRA PTP & TPO

PRODUCT LIFECYCLE MANAGEMENTSOA

-

DEMANTRA SALES & OPERATIONS PLN

Pre-Built Integration• DC replen. rules

OtherExternal Data

• Account and Promotion planning• Promotion Optimization

• Balance demand supply and budgets

DEMANTRA DEMAND MANAGEMENT

ORACLE SUPPLY & DISTRIBUTION PLN

• Retail loyalty• IRI/AC Nielsen• 3rd party demographic• Causal (weather,etc.)

Balance demand, supply and budgets• Constrained forecast analysis• Full S&OP process support

• Supply Planning (ASCP)

• Demand consensus forecasting• Better statistics - Increase forecast accuracy• Promotion lift analysis• Attribute-based forecasting

• Pre-built integration of aggregated demand signals to Demantra

• Standards-based integration for other ORACLE PRODUCT LIFECYCLE MGT

• RFID/EPC• IMS, NDC, EDI (867,

852), Scripts, Pedigree• Unstructured text

pp y g ( )• Distribution Planning (ASCP-DRP)• Network Design (SNO)

Attribute based forecasting• New product introductions – Shape modeling

• New product development and introduction


applications • Integration with Agile (Future)

DSR Solution Capabilities

Capture • Adaptors to capture a variety of data types and sources• Data cleansing tools to address data quality issues

Manage

g q y

• Extensible, retailer-based data model to maintain external data at the store/SKU level

• Routines to to harmonize data across multiple dataManage

A l

• Routines to to harmonize data across multiple data aggregation levels and hierarchies

• Pre-built category management, key account management and ptur

ean

age

alyz

esp

ond

egra

te

Analyze scorecarding dashboards and reports • Flexible, robust business intelligence and reporting capabilities

• Rules-based exception management dashboard

Ca

Ma

An

Res

Inte

Respondp g

• Automated workflow to facilitate resolution of exceptions• User-defined, event-based triggers to initiate transactions in

external applications and enable “sense & respond” capabilitiesOracle Demand Signal Repository

Integrate• Pre-built integration with key Oracle applications such as

Demantra, Siebel, Agile and G-Log• Pre-built SOA integration with other external applications via

Oracle Application Integration Architecture

Signal Repository


Oracle Application Integration Architecture

Sense Demand Real-TimeInvolve all constituents and forecast closer to the point of consumption

REGION EAST FCSTUS

STORE FORECASTJAPAN

11/18 5pm:“New photo

Involve all constituents and forecast closer to the point of consumption

REGION WEST FCST

REGION SOUTH FCST

PRODUCT FORECAST

CHANNEL FORECAST11/20 12pm:

“New camerasales at 150%

pprinter sales at -25% of estimate, request TV add”

Region South SalesForecast QTY Change

Tokyo Store 1 Forecast Change (YEN)

sales at 150% of estimate”

MANUFACTURING FCST

MARKETING FCST

SALES FCST

HQ

TV add “camera +i t ” ti

ALERT: “Problem in US Region East”printer” promotion

airs 12/21 8pm

Consensus Forecast

US Region East11/20 2pm:

“Budget approval for

global TV add”

• Demand changes get detected real-time and are instantly reflected to all constituents and exceptions are triggered automatically

global TV add

20th Century Fox processes real time updates from 15,000+ stores daily


Improve Forecast AccuracyDesigned for planners not programmers (“PhD in a box”)

BayesianEstimator Bayesian

Designed for planners, not programmers ( PhD in a box )

5-35%

History

C l

Estimator

Model A CombinedModel

Forecast

Optimizer

improvementCausal

Factors

CausalsCausalsAnalysisAnalysis

OutlierOutlier

PromotionalPromotionalEventsEvents

SeasonalitySeasonality

TrendTrend

CyclicalCyclicalPatternsPatterns

CausalsCausalsAnalysisAnalysis

OutlierOutlier

PromotionalPromotionalEventsEvents

SeasonalitySeasonality

TrendTrend

CyclicalCyclicalPatternsPatterns

Promotion Events

OutlierOutlierDetectionDetection

TrendTrendOutlierOutlierDetectionDetection

TrendTrend

Causal Analysis

EventsSeasonality

Trend

Outlier Detection

Cyclical Patterns


Sense Demand Real-TimeMonitor customer demand and respond to ensure high service levelsMonitor customer demand and respond to ensure high service levels

Disti, Product &Disti UPC #

Forecast based on POS data from

Disti Inventory Levels

Customer & C

Week of Inventory Cover

DistisMeasure the weeks of Inventory cover at the distisCompany

Forecasts Replenishment Status

Actual POS

cover at the distis

On Hand Inventory

Resolution

ConsensusForecast

Demand VariabilityOrange: Potential OOS

Red: Current OOSCompare POS data with pConsensus PlanIdentify potential stock outs and resolve


resolve

Sense Demand Real-TimeCollaborate with customers and measure impactsCollaborate with customers and measure impacts

• Improve demand visibility with customer collaboration

• Tailor worksheets to specific customer

Partner I t

needs• Worksheet can be attached to a task• Direct alerts via application or email• Automate internal notification on customerInputs:

XML,EDI or Manual

Partner Forecast Metrics

• Automate internal notification on customer input

• Field-level security tied to customer access privileges



Sh D d f P fit bilitShape Demand for ProfitabilityPredictive Trade Planning & Optimizationg p


New Products IntroductionAccurately forecast demand for new products based on existing data

• New products present forecasting challengesLi it d d d hi t f i it

Accurately forecast demand for new products based on existing data

– Limited or no demand history for a given item– May combine characteristics of several previous products – Price points, changing market conditions may be different – Product demand changes over product life cycle

Chaining Shape Modeling Attribute-Based Chaining

New Product C =

Shape Modeling

•Apply shapes, scaled for volume

Forecasting

Model new item based on past

30% Product A + 75% Product B

and time•Re-scale base on initial demand data

based on past behavior of other items with similar attributes


New Products IntroductionAccurately forecast demand for new products based on existing dataAccurately forecast demand for new products based on existing data

View demand of comparable products based on characteristics

Derive forecast for new product and adjust forecast based on actual demand

Automatically detect outliers


True Promotional ROI Is Not Obvious

Analytics Required to Measure Real ROI

Promoted Volume Does Not Provide Complete Picture

2500

3000

TPR Display

2500

3000

TPR Display

1000

1500

2000

Cas

es

CannibalizationPre- and post-effectsCompetitive switchingCategory growthBaseline

Netlift

Baseline1000

1500

2000

Cas

es

Actual

0

500

Week 1 Week 6 Week 11

Actual

0

500

Week 1 Week 6 Week 11

Week

TPR Display

Product Margin $450,000 $450,000

P ti t $250 000 $250 000

TPR Display

$150,000 $300,000

$ $Promotion cost $250,000 $250,000

Net profit $200,000 $200,000Promotion ROI 80% 80%

$250,000 $250,000

-$100,000 $50,000

-40% 20%

© 2008 Oracle Corporation – Proprietary and Confidential *. TPR : Temporary price reduction

Decomposition of the Promotional Lift

Data Intelligence-Knowledge-Collaboration-Value

Consumer

Advertising

Category Cannibalization

Pantry Load

Brand Cannibalization

Pantry Load

Forward Buy

Incremental

Tradevs.vs.Category Growth

Brand Growth

Cannibalization

Account Switching

True Trade

Competitive Account

SwitchingCompetitive

Brand Switching

Brand GrowthNet Lift

Baseline Baseline BaselineBaseline

Traditional ItemEvaluation Demantra’s Promotion Evaluation

RetailerManufacturer


Manufacturer and Retailer Analysis

• Compare planned versus actual results • Color coding highlights better than

expected or under performing resultsLift d iti t id tifi• Lift decomposition to identifies components of lift including cannibalization

• Drill down to speed analysis


Drill down to speed analysis• Exception process can route analysis

based on user defined rules


Evolve to Real-Time S&OPEvolve to Real-Time S&OPReal-Time Sales & Operations PlanningHyperionHyperion


Evolve to Real-Time S&OPM k d d d l d i i i lt l

MarketingStrategic plans Profitability

Make demand and supply decisions simultaneously

FinancePromotional andvolume plans Service levels

Strategic

TacticalSales

Executives

ProductDevelopment

Demand plans Inventory levels

Capacity plans Promotion effectiveness

Tactical Decisions

Manufacturing

ExecutivesPhase in and phase out products Plan accuracy

• Identify financial and revenue goals• Analyze demand and develop sales

forecastS h i l Fi S l

• Review supply and demand plans• Develop constrained plan• Monitor results and respond to

deviations• Synchronize plan across Finance, Sales, Marketing, and Supply Chain

• Determine potential market variables

deviations• Create promotions and incentives to

shape demand and close gaps


Real-Time S&OP Case StudyZebra Synchronizes Demantra Demand Management and Oracle CRM Opportunities with Hyperion Financial Plans/Budgets as part of S&OP

Business Planning and BudgetingBudgeting

(Hyperion)

Development

MARKETING andSALES

OPERATIONS andCONTRACT MFG

Financial

Rough-CutCapacity Planning

DevelopmentPlan

FinancialPlans (Hyperion)

Production Plans (SNO)

Demand Management Aggregate

Sales Plan

Sales & OperationsPlanning

(Demantra)

MasterSchedulingCRM

Opportunities

Detailed Sales Plans

ASCPDemantraDetailed Material/Capacity Planning

Plant & Supplier

MarketingForecast Oracle

CRM

Plant & SupplierScheduling

Execution

Sales Forecast

Sales Execution


H i t b i l i & b d tiBusiness Planning & BudgetingHyperion generate business planning & budgeting


H i W k h t G t d d i S&OP P f P&L I tProfit & Loss AnalysisHyperion Worksheets are Generated during S&OP Process for P&L Impact View of S&OP Plans sent from Demantra


Automate Consensus Planning T il d k h t f t ti i ti

• Seeded worksheet templates for the

Tailored worksheets for management participation

templates for the consensus process

• Stakeholders review and adjust forecast

Sales Manager at customer and

product family by month j

• Data tailored for role• Compare with

Consensus Forecast

month

• Track accuracy of input to the consensus process

Marketing Manager g gat category by

quarter


Highly Interactive Simulation and AnalysisPublish working

consensus forecast

Optimize supply network and constrain

Compare scenarios for decision making


Management Review - Demand Review

How has the plan h d?changed?

Order backlog i i ?

How are we t ki tincreasing? tracking to forecast?


forecast?

Management Review - Supply Review

H d tAre we supply t i d?

How are product categories

constrained?g

performing?

WhAre we

producing toWhere are we resource

producing to plan?resource

constrained?p

Supplier © 2008 Oracle Corporation – Proprietary and Confidential

ppoverloading?

Management Review - Executive Review

How are weHow are we performing toperforming to performance Are we on

metrics? plan financially?financially?

Where are we behind budget?


We predict the impact of today’s business decisions on tomorrow’s business performanceReferences

We predict the impact of today s business decisions on tomorrow s business performanceConsumer Goods

Consumer Durables

Industrial Manufacturing Media and Entertainment

Hi h T h lHigh Technology

Medical Devices Retail / Wholesale


Q U E S T I O N SA N S W E R S


Documents

- DBGuide.netATE TRADE PROMOTION PLANNING & OPT g ration Non-Oracle Applications • Store inventory • Promotional plans • Store replen. rules • Store