Embed Size (px)
Citation preview
黃穎捷 Huang, Ying-Chieh in Taiwan 2010/10/[email protected]
The coexistence of mankind on the planet in the future the only way Scenario planning, business management concepts to try to be Earth's human co-existence of the Road for future
One of Taiwan's business management consultant, to the "Global 224 leaders of political entities work together to create the world's great business" offer strategies
Preface Preface Scientific evidence that global
greenhouse gases, have started to decline in 2015 to control the increase will not exceed 2 degrees Celsius, or else the Earth will enter an irreversible vicious cycle, including war, pestilence, famine, drought, floods, hurricanes and other disasters will take turns sweeping the planet.
Human only 5 years to combat the growing global greenhouse gas emissions.
In this paper, scenario planning, business management ideas and experiences, discuss the future of human co-existence in the way the Earth.
Content Content
Scenario planning and some experience of business management concepts and an overview of:
Management strategy over the past century and tools business use technology to create operational performance, make management, continued to evolve.
Business performance continued to improve key insight into market opportunities in the master taking it; timely and appropriate, adjusting the organizational and operational strategies, start change, reverse the development difficulties.
Changes in world business management thinking Changes in world business management thinking Do thing right times In the 1900s, "Taylor scientific management" theory.
1930, Maslow "behavioral science" and Japan "total quality management" theory.
In the 1960s, Porter "Competitive Strategy" management phases. In the 1970s, mass production-oriented to strengthen the machine: quality
control, statistical quality control, 5S, quality control circles, statistical process control, project PERT, critical path method.
Do right thing times 1980, corporate "restructuring reengineering revolution" phase to
strengthen quality-oriented: ISO, core competence, organizational change, risk management, Six Sigma, total quality management, lean production, timely production, enterprise resource planning and customer satisfaction.
1990 to date, "Learning competitive organization," the network "virtual organization" forms. Strengthen knowledge / strategic orientation: blue ocean strategy, business intelligence, balanced scorecard, knowledge management, vision and mission statements, strategic planning, learning organization, team building, outsourcing, customer relationship management, benchmarking, long tail, experience marketing, data mining and so on.
Some business management concept of Value Creation clinic model
Some business management concept of Value Creation clinic model
To Dr. Deming PDCA management of, Dr. Ichak Adizes Corporate Life Cycle concept, into the eight ISO international quality management system operation and management of the core concepts, develop my Agribusiness organizational operation and continued improvement in the quality of the two 12 - step's cycle mode.
The "reengineering" (Re-engineering the Corporation; Michael Hammer & James Champy, 2004) of the 4R (Reposition, Restructure, Re-system, Revitalization), transformed into "innovative change 6R" (Reposition, Reorganization & Restructure, Re- system, Revitalization, Reprocessing, Remarketing) cycle model, the implementation of farm business efficiency.
Value Creation clinic modelBy Dr. Deming's PDCA continuous improvement in business organizational development, and create new value.
Plan•What to do?•How to do it?
Do•Do what wasplanned
Check• Did things happenaccording to plan?
Act•How to improvenext time?
ISO9000: 2000 quality continues to improve 12 - step's
cycle mode
1.ConfirmationCustomer
needs 2. Establishing the quality policy and
objectives
3. To determine the process to achieve quality objectives and responsibilities.
6. Recognizing that prevention of the causes of failure and preventive measures.
4. To achieve quality goals established methods of measurement of process effectiveness
12. Evaluation of the results of process improvement actions.
11. Monitoring the results of process improvement actions.
10. Implementation of process improvement action plan.
9. Preparation process improvement action plan.
8. Recognized the opportunity to perform the priority.
5. The effectiveness of the implementation of the confirmation process measurements.
7. Look for opportunities to enhance effectiveness and efficiency of the process.
Concept of corporate life cycle clinic 400 organizations in 20 countries applied, were great achievements.Domino's Pizza, 7 years by the 100 million annual turnover growth of 5 million dollars to 15
billion U.S. dollars.
Concept of corporate life cycle clinic 400 organizations in 20 countries applied, were great achievements.Domino's Pizza, 7 years by the 100 million annual turnover growth of 5 million dollars to 15
billion U.S. dollars. Key:
Establishment of integrated complementary team: the leaders of that perfection does not exist, must find a complementary management team.
Characteristics of successful enterprises: democratic decision-making, autocratic executive.
Organizational Value Creation 12-
step's cycleContinue to adjust
the mode of operation
1. To arouse a sense of crisis.
2.Diagnostic synergy
3. Create powerful synergy CAPI team.
6. The design of new functional organizational structure and new operational procedures.
4. Produce structures with reminders
12. Designed to strengthen the incentive for the development of benefit-sharing system.
11. The organization of the total inventory.
10. Formulate long-term plan, the establishment of organizational strategic planning system, distributed physical resources.
9. To create peak performance and information sharing, resource allocation procedures.
8. Above steps layer by layer implementation.
5. Confirm the vision and mission.
7. Confirm the new organizational structure and information systems.
Effective organizational operation of the psychological processes
Effective organizational operation of the psychological processes
Decision
PAEI
Complementary team
Different styles
Change Problem
Management
Executive
capiCommon interests
Different interests Conflict
Destructive conflict Constructive conflict
Continued from previous page Constructive conflict
Synergy Symbiosis
Learning Love
Mutual trust Mutual respect
Partners
Structure
Friends
People Process
Cognitive Conference One to One
Drink the blood brothers for the Union center arena
Create value treatment mode"Organizational innovation and reform 6R" loop transformation models continue to create value. （Huang Ying-chieh ,2005 ）
Create value treatment mode"Organizational innovation and reform 6R" loop transformation models continue to create value. （Huang Ying-chieh ,2005 ）
6. 再創造未來市場（ re-marketing ）
1. 組織的重新定位（ Reposition ）
2. 組織與結構重組（ re-organization & re-structure ）
5. 人員活力再生重塑企業文化（ Revitalization ）
4. 重設新法令制度系統（ re-system ）
3. 重設新流程（ Reprocessing ）
Peter Senge "Learning organization" concept Peter Senge "Learning organization" concept
So that members have a "spiritual mind" and "fundamental change." Learning how to learn."Systems thinking" practitioners to establish a "learning organization" scaffolding, absorbed in "self-transcendence," "improving mental models," "building shared vision," "team learning" and other practitioners to construct a flexible, resilient, and create continuous learning , an organization with a sustainable competitive advantage.
Organizations move up the impetus is not magic （ Collective learning capabilities）
Organizations move up the impetus is not magic （ Collective learning capabilities）
Open Space to the consensus mode of operation of business organizations to rethink common."Collective learning" establish a common, fervent desire (shared vision), we can change the same into the ranks.
Only participants have developed a "reflection and probing the depth of the act" in order to openly discuss the business of the organization complex issues of conflict, but also to self-handling "sensitive issues" would not touch the nerve of self-defense, as fighting and resisting reform .
R. H. Coase 1991 Nobel Prize in EconomicsCoase Theorem
R. H. Coase 1991 Nobel Prize in EconomicsCoase Theorem
Coase Theorem: "In a world without transaction costs, regardless of how to define the ownership of property rights, resource use efficiency is optimal."
So should the role of a martial arts, usually only towards the elimination of obstacles no matter what transaction coordination and communication costs.
The father of modern educational psychology Thorndike (1890)Enhanced theory of operant conditioning
The father of modern educational psychology Thorndike (1890)Enhanced theory of operant conditioning
Formula: internal responses to external stimuli ⇒consequencesIs a behavioral change caused by the stimulation of the process and methods.Response to external stimuli and internal inertia contact award or punishment for continuous operation, and increase or decrease.Reward and punishment behavior is the history of the decision. Appropriate incentives, can shape behavior.Many of the ideas or behavior pattern is obtained through practice experience.Appropriate rewards and punishments (reinforcement) can stimulate the reaction (behavior) of the moon as, at the right time, given the appropriate stimulus (reinforcement), is actually a culture of life pattern of behavior (reaction).
Management philosophy of yin and yang of ChinaAssembly, integration, integration
Management philosophy of yin and yang of ChinaAssembly, integration, integration
Assembly, integration, integration Assembly, integration, integration Tolerance is
To cross the border, we must sacrifice some of their own and the other side, crossed the boundaries of your
See the whole picture (strategy) and to break the artificial boundary (boundary) is to integrate the core of the problem
Long period of division the world together, together for a long time to divide, how to integrate to form one of the objects is a challenge in the challenge, but after all, there is an achievement of the period.
"Gou Quotations" triple spirit "of the collection, integration, integration." How the combination of the first set and then, from the combination of advanced to the integration, and finally fused into one, but (Organization) the biggest business challenges.
In recent years, the world's top 10 ranking management In recent years, the world's top 10 ranking management
The most common management techniques in recent years:
Strategic Planning Customer Relationship Management Customer Segmentation Balanced Scorecard Mission Statement Core competence
In recent years, the 10 most commonly used management techniques Strategy based technology is more important than instrumental techniques
In recent years, the 10 most commonly used management techniques Strategy based technology is more important than instrumental techniques
Scenario and Contingency PlanningLatest (2006) 25 management ranks 8th worldwide
Scenario and Contingency PlanningLatest (2006) 25 management ranks 8th worldwide
Reason Scenario Planning Reason Scenario Planning
Scenario (Scenario) intent that the script or screenplay. Represents a careful description of the picture of the future.
A World War II military planning methods. U.S. Air Force tried to imagine that competitors may take steps to prepare the appropriate strategy. Of the 20th century, 60 years, the Rand Corporation and the U.S. Air Force has worked Herman Kahn (Herman Kahn), the refined this ‧approach into business forecasting tool.
In the 1970s, Shell Oil (Shell) prior to the Arab oil embargo, "scenario planning" and reduce the global oil supply caused by sudden changes in business impact.
Scenario Planning Guidance into the best all-round transformation of the future Scenario Planning Guidance into the best all-round transformation of the future
Over the past
Now
Common Future
The next worst
Best Future
Z
Yb
Yn
Yw
System Dynamic Simulation
Future Scenario Planning
30
Scenario Planning Function Scenario Planning Function Gradually in recent years, combined with the traditional strategic planning as a strategy to
develop analytical tools, and even to guide and accelerate the internal organization of the learning strategy for change within the organization touches.
Is based on known facts and potential business combination of trends, to explore possible future perspectives. Is a search for ideas, predict the future, the phenomenon of the future a description of various unknown ways to develop a "real world may be how it works," the logic of Thinking.
Is a consistent point of view of possible future conditions - if it is such a development, we will take such action. In the particular case by the sandbox different exercises to reduce the risk of uncertainty.
Provide preventive mechanism and function, so that managers did not happen before the problem, imagine the possible scenario of access to preview, when the imagined scenario appears, will be able to respond calmly and carefully. Emphasis on the dynamic evolution of enterprise environment, to do a comprehensive consideration. The possible path of future development will make a framework, the specific type of presentation. With a review of available, once the omission of important factors that could prompt remedy.
Simulated situations to remind members of management organization, the immediate use of management systems and processes that may not be possible for the next one must change their business models, ideas, concepts, mindset and values.
To inspire and motivate members and remodeling thawing mental models, active learning new things, amendments to the common mode of thinking, and action strategies to implement solutions in order to create a successful future.
Scenario Planning TAIDA steps (Lindgren and Bandhold): Scenario Planning TAIDA steps (Lindgren and Bandhold):
1. Tracking: Environmental Change and follow the signs to explore the potential opportunities and threats and identify trends.
2. Analyzing: According to generate changes have occurred or are the events, the causal relationship analysis of trends and possible future scenario planning.
3. Imaging: confirm the likelihood of future scenarios, and adds organizational development vision of the future organization expected (desired future).
4. Deciding: According to the information obtained to measure their importance and to make decisions, and it is said to develop action strategies.
5. Acting: the organization planning to organize new information and members with experience in the old, and their integration, and begin operations.
The future of mankind on Earth Do right thing thinking The future of mankind on Earth Do right thing thinking
The above scenario planning concept and experience of ancient and modern business management, research and mention the future of human co-existence in the way the Earth.
(1) Tracking Environmental conditions of human existence on Earth
(1) Tracking Environmental conditions of human existence on Earth
Groups of human behavior is always in the "boiling frog Law", burning butt is not perceived.
Greenhouse gas levels are now higher than in the past 650,000 years.
United Nations "of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change" estimate, and from 1980 to 1999 standards, compared with each other, to the year 2100, global surface temperature will rise 1.1 degrees to 6.4 degrees Celsius.
Temperature rise, leading to warming of the oceans and, like all icebergs are melting, sea levels will rise 60 meters.
Presumably, to the year 2050, Earth's average temperature will rise 2 degrees Celsius; in the past years, the earth's average temperature increased by only 2 degrees Celsius. In 2100, sea level will rise 15-95 cm, seawater intrusion, third world population, will suffer the threat of drought, industry, agriculture was stopped.
Inconvenient Truth CO2 & TInconvenient Truth CO2 & T
2008 年達 384 ppm
2006 年達 382 ppm
2010 年達 388 ppm
2005 年達 380 ppm
Greenland Melt ExtentGreenland Melt Extent
Himalayas: 40% of the world's rivers and springs from access to drinking water, while more than half of these drinking water sources but also from the glacier, the next half century, and that 40% of the people on the planet will be dissolved because of the glacier face serious water shortages.
Himalayas: 40% of the world's rivers and springs from access to drinking water, while more than half of these drinking water sources but also from the glacier, the next half century, and that 40% of the people on the planet will be dissolved because of the glacier face serious water shortages.
Most of the current global land ice mass is located in the Antarctic and Greenland ice sheets . Complete melting of these ice sheets could lead to a sea-level rise of about 80 meters.
Most of the current global land ice mass is located in the Antarctic and Greenland ice sheets . Complete melting of these ice sheets could lead to a sea-level rise of about 80 meters.
Future sea levelFuture sea level
Future sea level predictions are uncertain because of uncertainties in the contributions of Greenland and Antarctica.
a recent study suggests higher rates (0.5 - 1.4 m of sea level rise by 2100).
[Rahmstorf, 2007]
.
Effects of Sea Level RiseEffects of Sea Level Rise
1 meter
2 meters
4 meters
8 meters
GFDL
Sea-level rise 6m-15m-25m flood overflow area diagram Taiwan
Sea-level rise 6m-15m-25m flood overflow area diagram Taiwan
Temperature rise, leading to massive release of methane, start warming cycle, out of control.
Temperature rise, leading to massive release of methane, start warming cycle, out of control.
British "nature (Nature)" Journal reported that the Earth 600 million 5 million 3 thousand years ago, a lot of methane released into the atmosphere, leading to severe warming and species extinction, climate chaos for 10 years, this future may be again.
September 2008 The Independent The Independent, scientists have discovered hundreds of tons of methane is from the bottom of the Arctic ice sheet is released into the atmosphere.
The researchers detected a large number of methane exist in the Arctic Ocean Date :09-08-17
The researchers detected a large number of methane exist in the Arctic Ocean Date :09-08-17
Climate change not only from increased human emissions of greenhouse gases, but also the Earth itself releases more greenhouse gases. Royal scientific research ship to the North Pole area, the use of sonar to detect the sea floor more than 250 methane bubbles. Analysis, this area in the past 30 years the once water temperature, leading to the seabed methane decomposition of methane hydrate, and way of floating bubble surface.
Methane hydrate, also known as "combustible ice", normally present in the seabed under the high steady state. 30 years ago, these substances can be 360 meters deep under the sea, stable, and now they are going to be stable under 400 meters. If the Arctic sea widespread phenomenon, then the annual number of tons of methane will be released. The problem will worsen global warming. And methane dissolved in seawater acidity will cause water to increase, a negative impact on the marine ecosystem.
Methane is leaking from the East Siberian Arctic Shelf into the atmosphere at an alarming rate.
Six Degrees: Our Future on a Hotter Planet (2007)Of: Linus (Mark Lynas)
Six Degrees: Our Future on a Hotter Planet (2007)Of: Linus (Mark Lynas)
A large number of scientific research, outlining every 1 temperature changes will occur:℃ Increase 1 : Global food shortages Arctic ice melting accelerated, resulting in climate ℃
changes; atoll island would sink, coral reefs sustained serious bleaching, wider, more severe droughts become more frequent, the African mountain snow disappeared, there will be one-third of the world lack of fresh water surface, are no longer livable.
Increased 2 : Decline and Fall of a million species of marine biology moving towards ℃sustained warming and acidification, destruction of the food chain, destroying all the remaining coral reefs, the Greenland ice sheet continued to melt, causing disappearance of Arctic sea ice the polar bear extinct, more serious water crisis, global food how to allocate even more difficult.
Increased 3 : the emergence of a large number of climate refugees? The carbon cycle ℃will be reversed, soil and plants are no longer absorbing carbon, but began to spit a lot of carbon, most of the Amazon rain forest will be burned into a desert, extinction started.
Increased 4 : hot temperatures will dominate everything? Sea-level rise inundated the ℃coastal cities, the Antarctic ice sheet began to crack, and poles will be in the ice-free state, the melting of permafrost began to release large amounts of carbon dioxide, food supply and demand imbalance.
Increased 5 : World full aliasing? South, the Arctic ice sheet residues will no longer ℃exist, rising sea levels engulfing coastal cities, ready to attack inland, drought and floods in the two-sided human beings under attack, the gradual influx place reduced to a population of large attenuation.
Increased 6 : Mass Extinction? Collective human will die! ℃
"Six Degrees of change: the future of an increasingly hot planet" (2007) Carbon dioxide emissions and temperature rise table
"Six Degrees of change: the future of an increasingly hot planet" (2007) Carbon dioxide emissions and temperature rise table
Celsius temperature target carbon dioxide concentration
0.1-1.0oC 350ppm (AD 2005 to more than 1 degree c) to prevent global average temperature increase of the probability of a time: 0.
1.1-2.0 oC 400ppm (AD 2010 of 388ppm) to prevent global average temperature increase of 2 degrees of probability: 93%, but only in 7 years, to reduce global greenhouse gas emissions to reach 60 percent.
2.1-3.0 oC 450ppm, such as temperature has increased twice, and thus lead to soil and vegetation carbon cycle feedback effects, to avoid global warming three opportunities: low.
3.1-4.0 oC 550ppm to avoid the chance of a global rise of four degrees: low, has increased to three if, and lead to thawing Arctic permafrost.
4.1-5.0 oC 650ppm five degrees of global warming to avoid the opportunity: almost no, if the temperature has increased four times, while the sea-bed methane trapped and then released.
5.1-5.8 oC 800ppm to avoid the chance of six degrees of global warming: zero if the temperature had increased to five degrees, when all of the feedback role will be out of control.
Main cause of environmental disasters caused by climate Main cause of environmental disasters caused by climate
Has been proved to be the current habits and ways of human life caused.
Recognized by human activities cause greenhouse gas emissions to climate change.
Livestock than the total global greenhouse gas emissions 51% Livestock than the total global greenhouse gas emissions 51%
World Watch Institute (WWI) Robert Goodland "livestock and climate change" and its by-products of livestock that greenhouse gas emissions 51% of the total world emissions, FAO, FAO estimated value of more than 18%.
Expected by 2050, global meat production, will be more than 1999 / 2001 229 million tonnes, increased to 465 million tonnes, while milk output expected to grow from 580 million metric tons, grew to 1.043 billion tonnes.
Meat industry, global greenhouse gas emissions than transport more than 40%. Reported that the operation of factory farms is the biggest factor.
Supply of land required for meat meals, Vegetarian meals are 10 to 20 times, half of the world's grain and soybean production for feeding livestock.
Conclusions: Soy foods and other alternative to replace the animal products, this is the best strategy for reversing climate change.
The current situation of global climate change, human treatment1992 "Framework Convention on Climate Change":
The current situation of global climate change, human treatment1992 "Framework Convention on Climate Change":
In 1988 the first United Nations General Assembly on climate change issues.
In 1990 a "Framework Convention on Climate Change Intergovernmental Negotiating Committee (INC)", 1992, adopted "United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change" (UNFCCC) . 150 countries signed in 1994, came into effect.
Annual Conference of Parties to the Convention (COP meetings) for the negotiation and consultation platform.
Convention greenhouse gas concentrations in the atmosphere, stability sufficient to allow ecosystems to adapt naturally to climate change, to ensure that food production is not threatened, and economic development can continue.
But the Convention does not formulate feasible measures, global carbon dioxide concentration is still rising.
1997 "Kyoto Protocol": 1997 "Kyoto Protocol": To make the world's greenhouse gas emissions to achieve the desired level.
December 1997 "The Third Assembly of States Parties" (COP3) the birth of the "Kyoto Protocol."
Protocol on how to make detailed provisions to address climate change, and have legally enforceable reduction targets.
Protocol specification and the EU 38 countries (Annex B countries), the way to individually or collectively to control the number of anthropogenic emissions of greenhouse gases must be in the 2008-2012 period, the State of greenhouse gas emissions to 1990 average, further reduced by 5.2%.
Protocol must be approved by more than 55 countries signed the total carbon dioxide emissions, Annex I countries accounting for at least, in 1990, 55% of total carbon dioxide emissions, the Protocol to come into effect.
However, when U.S. President George W. Bush made it clear that the U.S. would not sign the "Kyoto Protocol." Countries around the world when the U.S. government's unilateral implementation of global interests, regardless of tendency, deeply regret. Russia has also dragged in November 2004, only signed the "Kyoto Protocol." After six years of negotiations, the "Kyoto Protocol" was formally entered into force in February 2005.
2009/12/18 Copenhagen agreement 2009/12/18 Copenhagen agreement
Task is to determine the developed countries in the "Kyoto Protocol" of the second commitment period, that is 2012 to 2020 emission reduction targets, and legally binding.
The results of agreements: Stipulates that countries need to control global warming within 2 degrees Celsius. States must be before the end of January 2010, reporting their carbon reduction targets, and should be reviewed once every two years. Developed countries signed the agreement promised to be in 2010-2012, gather 30 billion U.S. dollars in emergency assistance funds available to developing countries to fight climate change by 2020 to reach 100 billion U.S. dollars annually, and the establishment of the Copenhagen green Climate Fund (Copenhagen Green Climate Fund) to manage. Agreement in 2010 to reach a consensus on the climate conference to continue after 2012 the "Kyoto Protocol", continue to control global greenhouse gas emissions. 2015 to review the agreement.
But the agreement did not determine the countries to reach emission reduction targets are not legally binding.
Copenhagen political leaders view the world: Copenhagen political leaders view the world:
President Barack Obama said it was a "unprecedented" agreement, but the agreement is not legally binding, is not enough to combat the threat of climate change.
Chinese Premier Wen Jiabao said the objective existence of national history, we must face. Do not face up to history, the international community would not understand today's rich-poor gap there, not to know how to seek development in developing countries is still the most important demands.
French President Nicolas Sarkozy that "Content is not perfect."
German Chancellor Melk said that, reluctantly accepted the agreement.
British Prime Minister Gordon Brown said that, we must quickly conclude a binding treaty.
Caribbean and Latin American leftists to lead the country, attacks on the Copenhagen agreement is neither democratic, but also violated United Nations principles.
The threat of climate change was first proposed by scientists, NASA (NASA) Goddard Institute for Space Studies, head of Hansen, said: developed countries, want to maintain their current production levels, so plan to spend only a little money, from the development countries to buy emissions quotas, there is an erroneous practice.
2010/4/12, UNFCCC Executive Secretary Yvo de Boer in Bonn warned:
2010/4/12, UNFCCC Executive Secretary Yvo de Boer in Bonn warned:
If the consultation process in Copenhagen, not as 2010/11/29 to 2010/12/10, at a meeting held in Cancun, Mexico, a breakthrough will be a heavy blow. He said: "We (2007) in Bali (Bali) to obtain the consensus is made in two years after the conclusion of Copenhagen, but we did not do it." "End point has been moved to Kanken, but to obtain a legally binding treaty, if it moved to the final finish line (end of 2011) for South Africa, I would not be unexpected." "Copenhagen is our last piece of amnesty, we can not withstand another failure in the Kanken." Boer said, "If we fail again in the Kanken the outside world will be able to do this is a process of what a tremendous loss of confidence."
(2) AnalyzingTo avoid climate catastrophe of human malignant detonated coping strategies
(2) AnalyzingTo avoid climate catastrophe of human malignant detonated coping strategies
Avoid a global average temperature increase of 2 degrees of probability of 93%, only changing the way global human lifestyle, the world's greenhouse gases, we must begin to decline in 2015.
This is a global human emergencies.
To avoid climate catastrophe set off vicious Change the Earth customary two directions of human life
To avoid climate catastrophe set off vicious Change the Earth customary two directions of human life
First, the global human moral persuasion, to change the way of human living habits.
Second, a new set of global human way of life and global legislation strictly enforced.
Human moral persuasion, to change the human way of living habits.
Human moral persuasion, to change the human way of living habits.
Global community of human bodies, has been active communication with each other perform, but has limited effect.
Rogers "innovative communication" normal laws of nature, the key to the sixteen percent across the threshold of dissemination mechanisms, designed to spread to the slowest learners who foresight process, there is a huge fault, can break to overcome, is accepted by the mainstream public The key to success. To cross a critical threshold of sixteen percent (2.5% share innovators, early adopters 13.5%), reduced to a small minority, can not become the mainstream, or even disappear in the stage of history.
Save the Earth today, the only way to prevent the detonation:Only on the new set of human life, and strict implementation of global legislation
Save the Earth today, the only way to prevent the detonation:Only on the new set of human life, and strict implementation of global legislation
And the current effects of Earth's most human tissues Chief Executive is a national organization.
But the national organization, the utilization of resources in the earth, each other in a competitive position.
Current national organizations Current national organizations
National organizations, the use of resources on the earth, each other in a competitive position.
Human history, mankind's most terrible killing of the tools are not ships and armament tech weapons, but the so-called maintenance of the national security of the people and the growth of the national organizations, or regional group system.
So the other national organizations, without an effective integration and constraint force can not effectively control the other national organizations to compete for the national interests of each other, it can not effectively control the earth's average temperature from rising 2 degrees c, probability.
Current United Nations Current United Nations Model United Nations organizations, was 60 years ago, to conform to the then war-torn
environment, world peace and stability, the output of the principles of the new order, the design expedient organization, time and space situation 60 years ago, the development of the United Nations Charter, and its vision system , architecture, implementation model frame, but frame the countries, ethnic group and ideological struggle of the traditional correspondence model, leading to affect all countries, in the private sphere of strategic interests and practical considerations, the generated fierce battle with each other. Longer period of time in various countries of consultation and compromise, resulting in the overall world's resources, against the cost of upgrading, thus affecting the people of the world of peaceful coexistence and economic development.
Democratic republic in the world today the rise of the Earth changes the environment, the difficulties of many global problems and the world of international disputes, has been can be handled by non-United Nations organizations, the United Nations General Assembly adopted a resolution on national or political groups, does not have the legal binding, only moral force.
Moreover, 192 United Nations Member States, not the United Nations Member States up to 52 (excluding the disputed area), is the world's major countries or political entities, a total of 244. Therefore, the United Nations can not represent global human, to carry out the actual decision-making and implementation of global government can not effectively regulate and protect the future of mankind in the earth's sustainable development.
"Global democratic republic," the "world integration administrative," the rise "Global democratic republic," the "world integration administrative," the rise
Strong and rich in the United States, since the war since independence, foreign priority to U.S. interests at home while the implementation of its Democratic and Republican political system of the operating mechanism, as the world political benchmarking study, leading to a "global democratic republican ideas" rise.
Today, the world 244 political entities of foreign policy, if we can thoroughly address the "global democratic republican ideology," the rise of the rest of the world s peoples, political entity, to show mutual respect, mutual love, mutual trust, mutual understanding and kind, will win the other countries ethnic, political entities, the respect of more rapid improvement of the world into the "world integration administrative doctrine The World Integrate Administrative Ism" innovative international political development, promoting sustainable peaceful coexistence of the world.
60 years, the United Nations organizational model designed, completed after World War II mission of the new world order and stability. As the "global democratic republican ideology," the rise of organizations like the United Nations expedient mode is not suitable for today's "global democratic republican ideology" environment. Therefore, the United Nations is bound to be dissolved and re-expansion of the establishment of a world of international public opinion all agree, the world are subject to "global democratic republic" program, the ideal "world integration administrative ideological system" development.
(3) ImagingOne of Scenario Planning: savior scenario (3) ImagingOne of Scenario Planning: savior scenario
He is not a great individual, he is not a strong country. He is a unique and effective management of the Earth organization.
He is recognized by the world public opinion are also the world or political entity, we are adhering to the organization.
Whether the earth in that corner, a certain level of disaster, he will immediately occur to the existing standard operating procedures, to initiate effective rescue operations.He like a very large insurance company.
He brings together the power of everything in the universe, the earth all the major issues to resolve.
In His human adhering to the unified management under the direction, through living a stable life.
He is the world's humanity, and common to be established "global unified management committee" : Global management committee. Let it be his birth!
(4) Deciding " The World Integrate Administrative Ism" meaning:
(4) Deciding " The World Integrate Administrative Ism" meaning:
I advocate is the "people on the planet." Mobilizing all the world human, political and administrative
geography lock status, advocates: "to lessen the world between countries, including all the inside and outside the military armed aggression, to build a global system of world integration administrative development."
World of human culture, to macro heart, living in the earth, care for the Earth, lock the current world regional administrative functions, discard all the history of racial troubles and hatred, the establishment of world integration administrative development of the world's overall administrative and security of new systems;
The current terrible conflict of war power and resources into building and restoration of the wounded earth, all the world's disadvantaged or disaster relief to refugees, the overall integration of global human development of social life.
"Integration of the executive government of the The World Integrate Administrative Organization" operating system features with the main location Discussion:
"Integration of the executive government of the The World Integrate Administrative Organization" operating system features with the main location Discussion:
1. For thousands of years, have the characteristics of the traditional state system, the formal dissolution; half a century since the establishment of the United Nations system, also the world promoting "world integration administrative doctrine" during the formal dissolution.
2. Global 244 political entities, "the collection, integration, integration", the original "United Nations" organization, reorganized as the "world integration administrative government" system.
3. Global 244 political entities, parliamentary system, "the collection, integration, integration", the establishment of global central parliament, legislative system to coordinate global development.
4. "Integration of the executive government of the The World Integrate Administrative Organization" to guide the current all the world countries and regional groups such as Global 244 political entities, with the whole world, leadership, management, and undertake the task of global governance, responsible for realizing the integration of world politics The mission of the integration of the executive.
5. "Integration of the executive government of the The World Integrate Administrative Organization" really was given command of the global military and public security system functions. The current world system of the armed forces and security police officers directly from the "world integration administrative government The World Integrate Administrative Organization" overall control, national defense budget cut year after year, gradually downsizing the armed forces of States, and strengthen co-ordination, "Integration of the executive government of the world The World Integrate Administrative Organization "of the public security police system development, and eventually the two systems, integrate the" world integration administrative government "security maintenance.
6. "Integration of the executive government of the The World Integrate Administrative Organization" establishment of a global computer network control center to coordinate the implementation of global integration of administrative security, culture, education, commerce and other related government in sustainable development worldwide.
(5) ActingThe future of the Earth the only effective way of human coexistence
(5) ActingThe future of the Earth the only effective way of human coexistence
Today, safeguarding world peace and sustainable, not by the super power countries, competing to flaunt international hero and the role of arbiter of international police, but for the interests of individual countries, hold in order to stand against each other, conduct mutually hostile behavior; in not be recognized by international public opinion, ignoring the United Nations presence, unauthorized military command invaded the territory, the real war of aggression are inappropriate to the line is not desirable behavior.
As of today the world leaders of countries or political entities, in dealing with government, must be different from the old era of information developed leaders, to have a grand view of the world. State or a political entity leaders must recognize that today's world, must have reached a global human subjects for the global domination of the era.
Therefore, the overall global human 244 political entities, joint transform the United Nations, the establishment of "global unity Development Management Committee", the establishment of "global democratic republicanism," the Central Council and the world of global central government, to co-ordinate individual countries can not handle today's global issues and governance, development and implementation of human development in the world today, common law, with the appropriate uniform of the "carbon reduction" new way of life, and the implementation of strict legislation, and jointly safeguard the global human development in the republic, the entire planet for future Earth the only human way of effective co-existence.
Global democratic republic of the world integration administrative doctrine supported by the evidence
of public opinion
Global democratic republic of the world integration administrative doctrine supported by the evidence
of public opinion The World Integrate Administrative Ism ( 點閱 :1575 本則新聞累計賞金： 394 元 建立「世界整合行政新全球政治運作體系」 ( 點閱 :1892 本則新聞累計賞金： 636 元 『世界整合行政台灣美學之島』黃穎捷網路文集目錄地圖 點閱 :11744 本則新聞累計賞金： 1444 元 孔明最後一道錦囊妙計的靈感：當前人類生前預立此增修條款【遺囑】之囑 點閱 :7967 本則新聞累計賞金： 1264 元 診療聯合國 Diagnoses and treats the United Nations 點閱 :7863 本則新聞累計賞金： 1028 元 經濟發展七階段演進新論 點閱 :1883 本則新聞累計賞金： 704 元 台灣人民當覺醒 The Taiwan people when awaken 點閱 :2689 本則新聞累計賞金： 1166 元 預測未來數十年，六級產業【心靈改造經濟時代】將繼【美學經濟時代】而來臨。 點閱 :3504 本則新聞累計賞金： 1002 元 倡導我是地球人，共創『消弭世界國際間、國內外武力侵略戰爭，建設大同新世界發展制度』新主張，必將落實呈現。 點閱 :2959 本則新聞累計賞金： 822 元 讓世界經濟共同邁向【公平正義的均富】發展之道－－【世界整合經濟】 點閱 :5001 本則新聞累計賞金： 754 元 呼籲共邀全球志士【打破國界改造世界。】 點閱 :1869 本則新聞累計賞金： 984 元 世界上期望可達成的【最偉大願景事業】是什麼？ 點閱 :2229 本則新聞累計賞金： 874 元 就世界軍事與經濟問題思考【世界整合行政】走向 點閱 :4225 本則新聞累計賞金： 928 元 創推【大地球人世界整合行政新主義】 ( 點閱 :2266 本則新聞累計賞金： 584 元 共創【世界整合行政主義】國際和平行動公益基金會籌備處網路溝通平台點閱 :6287 本則新聞累計賞金： 708 元 【戰爭與和平】新論點閱 :4756 本則新聞累計賞金： 706 元 呼籲全世界不分種族與區域的睿智之士串聯動起來! 點閱 :2710 本則新聞累計賞金： 660 元 『軍事戰爭』、『政治迫害』和『環境災難』是地球的三大絕症。點閱 :3268 本則新聞累計賞金： 988 元 讓我們共同創造人類組織學的最高境界( 點閱 :199 本則新聞累計賞金： 158 元 可敬的現代世界領袖，必具建立全球民主共和世界中央政府的宏觀。 點閱 :962 本則新聞累計賞金： 882 元
Conclusion Conclusion Scenario Planning for future co-existence of mankind on
the planet Road is a long-range orientation, uncertainty is very high.
In a highly uncertain environment, the Earth's human development scenario planning organizational change, so that 244 political entities, the world leaders, think-tank team, and Earth humans, did not happen in the earth before the crisis exploded, and imagine the possible scenarios of access to preview. To promote integration into this global human culture, to motivate large global human integration "organizational learning", the formation of large changes in the organization do not bleed together to create the highest state of human tissue, sustainable coexistence on earth.
參考文獻參考文獻 1. 彼得．杜拉克「巨變時代的管理」（ Managing in a Time of Great Change） 1995 。 2. Dr. ICHAK ADIZES ， 企業生命週期 譯者：徐聯恩 出版：長河出版社。 3. Dr. Ichak Adizes ，掌握變革 譯者：徐聯恩博士出版：長河出版社。 4. 科特（ John. P Kotter ），企業成功轉型 8 Steps（ Leading Change ）。 5. 阿部貞， 商業流程再造 等松會計事務所管理顧問部門 1994 。 6. 問題解決流程敘論（農委會第一期農業經營管理顧問專家培訓講義）。 7. 產銷班共同作業與人力運用（農委會第一期農業經營管理顧問專家培訓講義）。 8. 組織設計與工作配置（農委會第一期農業經營管理顧問專家培訓講義）。 9. 農業產銷班今後發展趨勢（農委會第一期農業經營管理顧問專家培訓講義 10. 農業經營主體的發展（農委會第一期農業經營管理顧問專家培訓講義）。 11. 團隊運作技巧（農委會第一期農業經營管理顧問專家培訓講義）。 12. 網路資源：尋智專業顧問有限公司 .http://www.eurekacp.com.tw/index.html 13. 網路資源： http://www.amt.com.tw/test/adizes.htm 14. Deming, W. Edwards （戴明），戴明的新經濟觀 THE NEW ECONOMICS 15. 瑪麗‧華頓，戴明的管理方法 THE DEMING MANAGEMENT METHOD 16. Deming, W. Edwards （戴明），轉危為安（ Out of the Crisis ）天下文化 1997 17. 網路資源： http://www.adizes.com/ 18. Hammer, Michael/ Champy, James; Reengineering the Corporation: ( 企業再造 ) 出版社： Harpercollins; 出版日期： 2004年 01月 01 日 19. John Micklethwait & Adrian Wooldridge， The Witch Doctors （企業巫醫）商周出版社。 20. Peter.M. Senge ，第五項修練 - 學習型組織的藝術與實務（ The fifth discipline: The art and practice of learning organization） 1990 。 21. 湯姆．畢德士（ Tom Peters ）與華特曼 《追求卓越》，（ In Search of Excellence, 1982 ） 22. 湯姆．畢德士， 亂中求勝（ Thriving on Chaos ）中國生產力 1989 。 23. 波特 (Michael E. Porter) ， 「競爭策略」（ Competitive Strategy ）天下文化 1998 。 24. 彼得．杜拉克，「巨變時代的管理」（ Managing in a Time of Great Change） 1995 。 25. 麥格雷哥，「企業的人性面」（ The Human Side of Enterprise ）。 26. 麥可韓默﹝Michael Hammer﹞與詹姆斯．錢辟﹝ James Champy﹞，《改造企業》 1993 。 27. 哈默爾（ Gary Hamel ）和普哈拉（ C.K. Prahalad ），「競爭大未來」（ Competing for the Future 1994 ）。 28. Peter.M. Senge ，「第五項修練 - 學習型組織的藝術與實務」 （ The fifth discipline: The art and practice of learning organization） 1990 。 29. 波特，「競爭優勢」 1985 30. Naisbitt, John ，亞洲大趨勢（ Megatrends Asia ）天下文化 1996 31. Robbins,Anthony 安東尼‧羅賓，激發心靈潛力（ Unlimited Power ）中國生產力 1989 32. Peter.M. Senge ，變革之舞 The Dance of Change 。 33. Al Gore, An Inconvenient Truth （不願面對的真相） May 24, 2006 34. 林納斯（ Mark Lynas ）， Six Degrees: Our Future on a Hotter Planet 2006 35. 張寶誠， 2009-11-16/ 經濟日報 /A17版 / 經營管理 36. 黃穎捷（ Huang Ying-Chieh ）， The World Integrate Administrative Ism 37. 黃穎捷（ Huang Ying-Chieh ），建立「世界整合行政新全球政治運作體系」 38. 黃穎捷（ Huang Ying-Chieh ），「世界整合行政台灣美學之島」黃穎捷網路文集目錄地圖 39. 黃穎捷（ Huang Ying-Chieh ），孔明最後一道錦囊妙計的靈感：當前人類生前預立此增修條款「遺囑」之囑 40. 黃穎捷（ Huang Ying-Chieh ），診療聯合國 Diagnoses and treats the United Nations 41. 黃穎捷（ Huang Ying-Chieh ），經濟發展七階段演進新論 42. 黃穎捷（ Huang Ying-Chieh ），台灣人民當覺醒 The Taiwan people when awaken 43. 黃穎捷（ Huang Ying-Chieh ）：預測未來數十年，六級產業「心靈改造經濟時代」將繼「美學經濟時代」而來臨。 44. 黃穎捷（ Huang Ying-Chieh ），倡導我是地球人，共創「消弭世界國際間、國內外武力侵略戰爭，建設大同新世界發展制度」新主張，必將落實呈現。 45. 黃穎捷（ Huang Ying-Chieh ），讓世界經濟共同邁向「公平正義的均富」發展之道－－「世界整合經濟」 46. 黃穎捷（ Huang Ying-Chieh ），呼籲共邀全球志士「打破國界改造世界。」 47. 黃穎捷（ Huang Ying-Chieh ），就世界軍事與經濟問題思考「世界整合行政」走向 48. 黃穎捷（ Huang Ying-Chieh ），創推「大地球人世界整合行政新主義」 49. 黃穎捷（ Huang Ying-Chieh ），共創「世界整合行政主義」國際和平行動公益基金會籌備處網路溝通平台 50. 黃穎捷（ Huang Ying-Chieh ），「戰爭與和平」新論 51. 黃穎捷（ Huang Ying-Chieh ），呼籲全世界不分種族與區域的睿智之士串聯動起來 ! 52. 黃穎捷（ Huang Ying-Chieh ），「軍事戰爭」、「政治迫害」和「環境災難」是地球的三大絕症。 53. 黃穎捷（ Huang Ying-Chieh ），讓我們共同創造人類組織學的最高境界 54. 黃穎捷（ Huang Ying-Chieh ），可敬的現代世界領袖，必具建立全球民主共和世界中央政府的宏觀。 55. 2010/4/12 聯合國氣候變遷會議，紛爭中於波昂落幕。 ( 法新社 ) 56. UNFCCC 19-Dec-09“Copenhagen United Nations Climate Change Conference ends with political agreement to cap temperature rise, reduce emissions and raise finance ”
Copenhagen Accord
THE ENDTHE END Questions and
Discussion
