中国人口老龄化 :政策发展与长期照护保险

Population Aging in China:Policy Priorities and LTC Insurance

杜鹏 ,中国人民大学老年学研究所Du, Peng Institute of Gerontology, Renmin University of China

Outline

Population ageing

Policy priorities

Long term care insurance

I. Population ageing in China

The latest 2010 China National Population Census gives us a chance to review the ageing process and policies to meet the challenges of population ageing.

The census data proves population ageing in China has been more rapid than expected due to the baby boomers entering the old age and longer life expectancy, there are 178 million elderly population aged 60 and over( account for 13.26%) and 119 million aged 65 and over(8.87%).

Population Ageing in China

2011

By the end of 2011, 185 million aged 60+,account for 13.7%;

123 million aged 65+,9.1%.

9.1

17.4

17.5

17.6

17.7

17.9

18.5

18.9

20.2

20.7

23.2

中国

拉脱维亚

芬兰

奥地利

保加利亚

葡萄牙

瑞典

希腊

意大利

德国

日本

资料来源 : Carl Haub, 2011 World Population Data Sheet.

Oldest countries in the world in 201165 岁及以上人口比例

Migration flow in China, 1995-2000

MigrationThe current 220 million migrant workers contribute the labor force and services to the development of the eastern developed area, but also cause the soaring population ageing in the western rural areas.

Therefore, the top ranking ageing provinces or municipalities is Chongqing and Sichuan, instead of Shanghai and Beijing.

The new national ageing situation calls for new strategies and policies.

National strategy on population

Control the population size around 1.5 billion.

Keep the fertility level around 1.8 in next three decades.

Avoid too high or too low fertility level.

Projected increase of Aged population by 2050

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

60岁65岁80岁

2000- 2100中国老年人口数的变化趋势 年

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

2001

2006

2011

2016

2021

2026

2031

2036

2041

2046

2051

2056

2061

2066

2071

2076

2081

2086

2091

2096

年份

()

人数百万 60岁

65岁80岁

Population aging in China,2000-2100

Year

Mill

ions

Population pyramid in 2009

1. 5 1. 0 0. 5 0. 0 0. 5 1. 0 1. 50岁

10岁

20岁

30岁

40岁

50岁

60岁

70岁

80岁

90岁

15 10 5 0 5 10 1515 10 5 0 5 10 1515 10 5 0 5 10 15

1950 2000

Male Female Male Female

Age

Sources: World Population Prospects: The 2004 Revision (2005).

Population pyramid, 1950-2050

80+ 75-79 70-74 65-69 60-64 55-59 50-54 45-49 40-44 35-39 30-34 25-29 20-24 15-19 10-14

5-90-4

Age

2050

Female

80+ 75-79 70-74 65-69 60-64 55-59 50-54 45-49 40-44 35-39 30-34 25-29 20-24 15-19 10-14

5-90-4

Male

II. Policy prioritiesLaw, policy and administrative system.

Improvement of social safety net.

Long term care insurance and services.

Social support system for the older adults.

Promoting social participation of elders.

National Strategy Research

In the past three years, China has been conducting the national strategy on ageing research programs;

The key research programs include:

Family planning policy and the support for the elderly, population migration and its impacts on the elderly,

Aging and health,

Economic status of the elderly,

Intergenerational relationship,

Aging and disability,

Aging and culture change,

Age discrimination and age abuse,

Community services for the elderly,

Social participation.

The priorities for review and appraisal include the following five key areas:

The laws and policies on protecting the rights and wellbeing of the elderly,

The social safety net and its adequacy to the elderly,

Long term care needs and insurance system,

The social service system,

Policies and implementation of active ageing and social participation system.

III. Long term care insurance

LTC insurance as the policy direction

Improving population policy and the care

Social support system

Article in the Law on the elderly

Increasing needs of the older persons

Available data

International experiences

Economic resources of the elderly, 2004

Age

OtherChildrenPension

Work

Long Term Care 中国老年人分年龄生活不能自理比例 (%)

3.2

5.1

9.2

14.3

25.6

35.6

50.3

60-64岁

65-69岁

70-74岁

75-79岁

80-84岁

85-89岁

90岁以上

Older persons with ADL problems,%

Long Term Care

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

不能自理人数（万人）

2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022 2024 2026 2028 2030 2032 2034 2036 2038 2040 2042 2044 2046 2048 2050

年份

4 2004-2050图 中国生活不能自理老年人口预测， 年

女性

男性

Projection of long term care needs

Female

Male

Year

Nu

mb

er in

10,

000

Key challenges

Availability of data

Timing of the LTC insurance system

Governmental initiatives

LTC insurance and services

Administration of the LTC funds

Capacity building of care givers

Thank you

Email:dupeng415@yahoo.com.cn