Research Methodology ..

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Likert Scale 5

5

4

3

2

1

(Weight mean score)

(Weight Mean Score)

4.50 5.00

3.50 4.49

2.50 3.49

1.50 2.49

1.00 1.49

5

() (Fallacies) (Literature review )

()

Introduction

IntroductionHands-on approachInclude what should not be done?Research Methodology for Public Administration Research Methodology for Social Sciences

Salient Feature Interdisciplinary/integrated approach /Generalist ( specialist)

Why important?Understanding e.g., research is not just pollingAbility to evaluate research project(distinguish good research from poorly-designed research) To find practical policy solutions

Policy ResearchSerious research (strong enough foundation to provide credible policy recommendations) Policies really drawn from findings of research, not from researchers opinions /judgments

Peer ReviewWhite Paper // Environmental Impact Assessment (EIA)Social Impact Assessment (SIA)Health Impact Assessment (HIA)

: Positive vs Normative Questionspositive questions firstNeed to know what is or how/why things work the ways they do What works/doesnt work? before we could provide answers for normative questions What should be?What is to be done?Where to begins?:

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Observational Equivalence ( internal consistency )

: ( LaMarck Survival of the fittest Darwin)

: ( 5) 1: 2:

(x) (Y)

2550 ? "" 2 . . 1 14/4/50

Research Process (interactive, not one-shot)1. Research Question(s)2. Review of Past/Ongoing Works (aka. Literature Review )3. Conceptual Framework/ Theory/Theoretical Model4. Setup statistical model (if any) 5. Data collection/processing6. Preparing reportNext steps..Review Dissemination

(STAGES OF RESEARCH)

Selecting Research Topic/QuestionsInteresting/ not too obvious . Silo/ ?Simple but overlooked questions . / ()

Theoretically sound in applied/operational research (Theory and Practice)

Seek truth from reality/fact () [(media) myths] * ( ) * * *

Framework/Theory/ModelTheory, Practice, & Common SenseTestable/Refutable (Karl Popper) theory never been proved, only confirmed or refuted. 1000 confirmations might not withstand one refusal.Example Theory: All swans are white

Empirical observation: confirmation

Another confirmation

Confirmed (again)

. and again

Refutation? .. Not yet

Refutation? .. Still no

Refutation? .. Yes

Framework/Theory/ModelTheory, Practice, & Common SenseCommon senses are often wrong/conflicting/ fall into fallacy trap

Framework/Theory/Model () Beware of FallaciesFallacy of CompositionFallacy of DivisionPost-hoc Fallacy Tautology Faith --- () Romanticism/nostalgia //

Framework/Theory/Model () Beware of FallaciesFallacy of CompositionFallacy of DivisionPost-hoc Fallacy False Dilemma/DichotomyTautology Faith --- () Romanticism/nostalgia //

Fallacy of Composition

Micro Macro Micro Macro

/ ( 41 )/

: 2472-2475 ( )

: (2544)

1 .. 2472-2475 ()() ()247218.97.0131.9247317.16.0103.1247422.23.577.5247527.93.494.2

1... ................. ... 3. ... ... ... ... 24 2475: (2542)

2

(%) (%) (% GDP)252648.859.420.3253130.342.816.7253617.527.08.9253717.226.79.3253816.525.97.7253916.326.49.5254014.323.79.8254113.522.611.3254212.021.39.7254310.618.89.1

: 2472-2475

: 2472-2475 : () : ()

: (2547-50) () GDP Growth (0.4%?): . GDP Growth 0.1- 0.2% (, 23 2550)

Paradox of ThriftIn Keynesian macroeconomics, the "paradox of thrift" is an example of this fallacy: increasing saving (or "thrift") is obviously good for an individual, since it provides for retirement or a "rainy day," but if everyone saves more, it may cause a recession by reducing consumer demand.

(externality) / interaction

OTOP

The parts of the whole X have characteristics A, B, C, etc. Therefore the whole X must have characteristics A, B, C.

A,B,CA,B,C

Sodium Chlorine sodium chlorine

() fallacy

Fallacy of Division (macro) (micro)

Fallacy of Division () Fallacy of Composition . ( 0.1% ) . .

Post-hoc FallacyFalse Causality, Spurious relationship, Extraneous variable post hoc ergo propter hoc (Latin for after this, therefore because of this") cum hoc ergo propter hoc (Latin for "with this, therefore because of this")

1/()2

Post-hoc Fallacy ()Correlation does not imply causation with this, therefore because of this.A occurs in correlation with B. Therefore, A causes B.

Post-hoc Fallacy (X)(Y) XY

Post-hoc Fallacy () ()

: : SARS-

Guilt by association

TautologyThe American Heritage Dictionary of the English Language (2000) Tautology: 1a. Needless repetition of the same sense in different words; redundancy. b. An instance of such repetition. 2. Logic An empty or vacuous statement composed of simpler statements in a fashion that makes it logically true whether the simpler statements are factually true or false; for example, the statement Either it will rain tomorrow or it will not rain tomorrow.

Tautology

Near Tautological Reasoning Murphys Law [Edward A. Murphy b1917 Am. engineer] (1958): an observation: anything that can go wrong will go wrong

Near Tautological Reasoning-- by Contradictions

: :

Tautology-By definitionBy construction

: (productivity)

Ecological fallacy The ecological fallacy occurs when you make conclusions about individuals based only on analyses of group data. 1 .. ..

False Dilemma/Dichotomyfalse dilemmaalso known as false choice, false dichotomy, falsified dilemma, fallacy of the excluded middle, black and white thinking, either/or fallacy involves a situation in which two alternative statements are held to be the only options, when in reality there exist one or more other options which have not been considered.

A typical false dilemma is the assertion "You are either for us or you are against us." The fallacy of this type of argument is that it tries to eliminate the middle ground.

The two alternatives presented are often, though not always, the two extreme points on some spectrum.

A false dilemma may not necessarily be limited to two choices; it may involve three possibilities, in which case it is known as a trifurcation, or more, in which case the dilemma may be more the result of accidental omission than deliberate intent.

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Faith 1 ?

Trust me, Wilbur. People are very gullible. Theyll believe anything they see in print. Charlotte, the spider, to Wilbur, the pig in E.B White Charlottes Web 1952

Who control the present, control the past 1984

Romanticism / nostalgiaThe Good Old Days ()

Romanticism / nostalgia ()A tablet from ancient Assyria, about 2800 BC. (almost 5,000 years ago), has been found that states: Our earth is degenerate in these latter days. There are signs that the world is speedily coming to an end. Bribery and corruption are common. More than 2,000 years later, Socrates complained, Children are now tyrants They no longer rise when elders enter the room. They contradict their parents, chatter before company, gobble up dainties at the tables, cross their legs, and tyrannize over their teachers.Plato (Socrates student) wrote of his students: What is happening to our young people? They disrespect their elders, they disobey their parents. They ignore the law. They riot in the streets inflamed with wild notions. Their morals are decaying. What is to become of them?

Source: Isaac Asimovs Book of Facts, 1979.

Replicability Clear descriptions of research methods, processes, and sources of data or at least. Robustness

Same method yields similar results with different set of data/samples/periods robustness generalize (policy implication) local specific

Ethics in research

(plagiarism)Make results/data available to the academic community

(research subject) Hyprocratic Oath First, do no harmphysically, psychologically, financiallyInformed consent / deception DIME

Privacy/Anonymity/ confidentialityEvaluation/Assessment using study to justify decision already made or using study to buy timeDisclose of sponsor / conflict of interests

"Well begun is half done"

Aristotle

( )(methodology) (ethics) (finance)

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1. (Witteveen, 1996) (Douglass, 2003) (Brown, 2001) (Cuthbert and McKinnell, 1997)

/ direct quotation . format

Plagiarism cut and pasteInternet

(Conceptual Framework):

Y = a + X 0 < < 1 X = (income) Y = (consumption expenditure)

(Experimental Design) (Quasi-experimental Design) (Non-experimental Design) -

(e.g., double blind study)/ (experimental economics/ psychology / marketing ( ) / social capital

(quasi-experimental Design) costly/painful (. /) match treatment control groups ()

(non experimental Designs)

(Non-experimental Design)

(Field Research) (Cross-Sectional Studies)- (Longitudinal Design)

(Longitudinal Design)

2 6 1 Panel Studies Successive Samples ()

Tractability/witty Stopping rule changing pattern of land inheritance ( cross-sectional data) /

()

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