15 2 35-65 2019 / Taiwan International Studies Quarterly, Vol. 15, No. 2, pp. 35-65 Summer 2019

當前國際戰略理論─發展與前景

15 2 2019/ 36

壹、前言

strategy

Carl von Clausewitz

On War

war as the continuation of politics by other means

2012 18 20

Christensen, 1996: 7; Freedman, 2013

B. H. Liddell-Hart

grand strategy

Thomas Schelling Colin Gray

Schelling, 1980: 5

Martel, 2015:

121 national security

international

system

Brands, 2014: 3

70

37

貳、霸權衰退與國際戰略選擇

strategic adjustment Dueck, 2004:

512 1945

liberal internationalism Layne, 2017: 262-63, 267

balance of power

(liberal

international order)

Dueck, 2004: 513 Barry R. Posen Andrew

L. Ross neo-isolationism

selective engagement cooperative security

primacy Posen & Ross, 1996

15 2 2019/ 38

unilateral

internationalism

entangling alliances Sloan, 2003

forward-deployment Posen & Ross, 1996

selective engagement

Posen &

Ross, 1996: 5-53

Hoffman, 2013

collective

security hegemonic stability

39

Hentz, 2005: 1558-59

Sloan, 2003; Posen & Ross, 1996

imperialism

Hoffman, 2013:

46-51 assertive interventionism

state-building

Hoffman, 2013

Copley, 2008:

4

15 2 2019/ 40

Layne, 1998: 8-9

George Kennan

containment

Marshall Plan

NATO

1970 Henry Kissinger

détente

Getchell,

2017: 249-50 1

Francis Fukuyama end

of history Layne, 2017:

10-14

1

41

Friedman, 2003

new world order

engagement and enlargement

1990

Layne, 1998: 8

1945

Gowan,

2003: 30 1987 Paul Kennedy

imperial overstretch The Rise and Fall of

the Great Powers

15 2 2019/ 42

Martel,

2015

1945

commercial liberalism

1930 economic nationalism

Layne, 1998

third

pillar 1995

43

Nye, 1990; 2004

soft power

hard power

smart power

19

geopolitics

Halford J. Mackinder Alfred T.

Mahan Nicholas J. Spykman

1 2

3 rimland

containment

Okuyama, 2015

National Interest, 2017: 5

Salman & Bick, 2017

primacy

2003

restraint Stephen Walt John Mearsheimer

offshore balancing 1

15 2 2019/ 44

1

參、九一一事件後國際戰略理論發展

dominate

1920

1930

1950 /

1990

2000

2010

2018

/

45

1989 7

Heilbrunn, 2015

2008

strategic

competitor

selective

engagement

neoconservatives

America’s unipolar moment

2001 9 11

alliance

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coalitions of the willing 2

Donald Rumsfeld

flexible coalition

Taliban

al-Qaeda

Sloan, 2003

Krauthammer, 2004: 15 democratic

realism

low-intensity conflict

nation-building

Tier, 2014: 51-64; Rigby, 2003: 19

2

Every nation, in every region, now has a decision to make. Either you are with us or you are with the terrorists.

47

weapons of

mass destruction, WMD states of concern

Rees & Aldrich,

2005: 905 3 1990 RMA

exceptionalism

Schwenninger, 2003

deterrence

preventive

pre-emptive global war

against terrorism homeland

security Bush

Doctrine

Condoleezza

Rice a common security framework for

the great powers share a common security agenda Sanger,

3 regional multilateralism

global unilateralismRees & Aldrich, 2005

15 2 2019/ 48

2002 Sloan, 2003

Comprehensive Nuclear Test-Ban Treaty

military

adventurism Lin, 2016

Crimea

al Qaeda Islamic State, ISIS

regime change

the rise of the rest

49

Amsden, 2001

1

liberal hegemony

4

security dilemma

Friedman & Logan, 2016: 14

power transition

Ikenberry, 2018

4 H. R. McMaster National

Economic Council Gary CohnMcMaster

& Cohn, 2017

15 2 2019/ 50

1︰

World Bank 1945 global governance

World Bank

1945Asia Infrastructure Investment Bank,

AIIB New Development Bank

IMF 1945

WTO

1947

SWIFT

1973 SWIFT

Paris Agreement

2015 2017

NATO

1949

EU 1957 Euroscepticism

1951

1953SMA

1960

AsianDevelopment Bank

1966AIIB

ASEAN

1967

NAFTA

1994 2018USMCA

n.a. 2019: 2-3, table 1

51

2011 11 Pivot to the

Pacific

heavy-handed

2012

21 Sustaining

U.S. Global Leadership: Priorities for 21st Century Defense White House,

2012

Stephen Walt

offshore balancing

Ghimis,

et al.: 2012

2011

11 Darwin

2012 1

21 Sustaining U.S. Global Leadership: Priorities for

21st Century Defense

60%

Chuck Hagel 2013 6 60%

2014 4

Senkaku Islands

10

pivot strategy

2012

15 2 2019/ 52

Pant & Joshi, 2015 2011 11

Trans-Pacific Partnership, TPP

de Santis, 2012

Mearsheimer & Walt: 2016, 70-71

liberal hegemony

indispensable nation

revisionism

Mearsheimer & Walt:

2016, 70-71

Fortress America

offensive realism

Mearsheimer, 2014 Stephen Brooks

William Wohlforth deep engagement

retrenchment

Brooks & Wohlforth,

2016; Roskin, 2016

offshore

balancer

53

failed state

Layne, 1998

Layne, 2017 1945 Pax

Americana

Rothkopf, 2017

Make America Great Again

Layne, 2017: 10

2025

15 2 2019/ 54

Mint, 2018

Vladimir Putin

great

gentleman

primacy without

purpose

TPP

North American Free Trade Agreement, NAFTA

Transatlantic Trade

and. Investment Partnership, TTIP 2019 2 2

(Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces Treaty, INF) 1987

INF 500-5,500

Taliban

Rodrigo

Duterte

Posen, 2018: 26-27

55

Graham

T. Allison Thucydides Trap

Burt, 2017: 8

David

M. Edelstein Ronald R. Krebs Foreign Affairs

1986 Goldwater-Nichols Act

Edelstein & Krebs,

2015

Ionut C. Popescu

Popescu, 2016

adaptive strategy

15 2 2019/ 56

Popescu, 2016

David Edelstein Ronald Krebs

Betts 2000: 50-50

strategy-making

Edelstein & Krebs, 2015: 109-16 Henry Mintzberg

emergent strategy

Moore, 2011; MacDougall, 2014

Kaine, 2017

operational plans

Joffe, 2015

leading from behind we don’t have

a strategy yet

1945

57

less interventionist strategy of geopolitical restraint

Layne, 2017: 10

Trump Doctrine

zero-sum

tactical transactionalism

Zenko & Lissner, 2017

extended deterrent

1970

zero-sum transactionalism

Zenko & Lissner, 2017

肆、結語

strategic theory strategic studies

Garnett, 1975

15 2 2019/ 58

Feaver, 2009

Brands & Kahl, 2017

Zenko & Lissner, 2017

1945

59

Layne, 2017:13-14

hybrid

negative perception spiral

Layne, 2017: 271

15 2 2019/ 60

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65

Current International Strategic Theory: Development and Prospects

Yu-Ming Tsai Associate Professor, General Education Center, Shih Chien University

(Kaohsiung Campus), Neimen, Kaohsiung TAIWAN

Abstract

The purpose of this article is to summarize the current international strategic theory and look forward to answering the following three questions: What is the characteristic of international strategic development after the end of the Cold War to September 11 attacks? What are the academic and policy changes in the international strategy after the September 11 incident? What are the characteristics of the current international strategy? Finally, the conclusion is to try to explore the development and prospects of current international strategic theory. Before the end of the Cold War until the September 11th attacks, the United States’ international strategy still held the dominant strategy of “American leadership.” After the September 11 incident, the United States faced the challenge of “the rise of the rest” and involved many international issues. Donald Trump’s victory also represented the rise of populism. He redefines the security interests of the United States and frees the United States from overseas conflicts without directly affecting US security. It also makes the allies of other countries feel uneasy, that “the United States will rule the world” will no longer exist, and even the United States has emerged as an “emergent strategy,” making bilateral and zero-sum traderism outperform strategic considerations in Trump’s thinking.

Keywords: strategy, international strategy, national security, homeland security

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